Trying to hear what's not being said
November 13, 2024 Leave a comment
If a company holds $24 billion worth of Bitcoin (but not really because that Bitcoin has been bought raising cash in the form of convertible notes), then why would you still pay $73 billion to buy the whole company?
Animal spirits have arrived.
Oh dear !
#parabola
November 13, 2024 Leave a comment
For the past 3 weeks, my weekend ‘Macro Extremes’ newsletter has cited Gold was trading in ‘overbought’ territory.
This doesn’t mean to ‘short it’……instead it warns of being careful if initiating new long positions at those moments.
But gold bugs and journalists were carrying on about new highs and the prospects of higher prices……
I spend much time telling clients “No’ rather than ‘Yes’.
And so, good gold mining companies such as Barrick Gold are now trading 20% below than their recent highs.
Others have slumped 30% in a short time.
Remember, it’s not about shorting the stock…
rather, I’m interested in buying soon.
November 13, 2024
rob@karriasset.com.au
November 13, 2024 Leave a comment
It is often noisiest at the extremes.
This Gold Miners ETF has fallen 15% over the past 4 weeks.
Surely, Gold’s sheer weight aids to the gravitational pull?
November 13, 2024
rob@karriasset.com.au
November 12, 2024 Leave a comment
The price action and ‘set-up’ for the stock prices of various Iron Ore companies isn’t attractive.
I’m watching a few signals before I become confident about the expected ugliness.
BHP and Fortescue may be the first to make the move lower.
If so, Rio Tinto’s ASX stock price could test A$93.00 initially and I’d become a giddy buyer at A$85.65.
November 12, 2024
rob@karriasset.com.au
November 12, 2024 Leave a comment
Buying #TSLA stock when it’s price is trading at 3 (upper, weekly) standard deviations is folly.
See you closer to $250.
The same applies to Bitcoin….I’ll look for it to visit $49,000 at least
November 12, 2024
rob@karriasset.com.au
November 11, 2024 Leave a comment
Australian real interest rates may soon register the 4th occurrence of a monthly overbought reading from over the past 35 years.
I have expressed this observation by showing the Australian 2 year bond yield minus the Aussie inflation rate.
Client will receive a note very soon about what this is telling me.
November 11, 2024
rob@karriasset.com.au
November 10, 2024 Leave a comment
A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.
The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.
* denotes multiple week inclusion
Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
Australian 10 year minus U.S. 10 year government bond yield spread
British 3, 5 and 10 year government bond yields *
Japanese 2 year bond yields
Norwegian, Swedish and Turkish 10 year bond yields
Lumber *
Dow Jones Transports
S&P SmallCap 600
Russell 2000
KRE Regional Banks Index
S&P MidCap 400
Overbought (RSI > 70)
Gold as priced in AUD, CAD, CHF, EUR, GBP and USD *
The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)
Lean Hogs
KBW Bank Index
Hungary’s BUX Index
Pakistan’s KSE *
Czechia’s PX Index
Israel’s TA35
Nasdaq Transportation Index
Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
US10Y – AU10Y spread
Rice
RMB/USD
Copenhagen
Oversold (RSI < 30)
U.S. 3 month government bill yield *
Australian Coking Coal *
U.S. Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel *
North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel *
Lithium Carbonate *
Lithium Hydroxide *
The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)
None
Notes & Ideas:
Global government bond yields fell, taking a breather from the recent climb.
Japanese, Norwegian, Kiwi, Swedish 10’s and U.S. 2’s bucked this trend.
5 weeks of higher yields in Australia came to an end.
Russian 10’s fell 88 basis points. Was this rally related to a Trump election win?
U.S. 10 year breakeven inflation rate mean reverted, upwards.
The U.S 30 year minus U.S. 10 year spread has fallen for 4 straight weeks.
The U.S. 10 year vs Euro 10 year spread yield broke its 7 week rising streak.
as did the U.S. 10 year bond yield minus the U.S. 10 year inflation breakeven rate.
U.S. 3 month bills are yielding their lowest since mid-March 2023.
And U.S. 2’s are their highest weekly close in 3 months…
soon I’ll look for yields to move lower.
Equities soared.
The Hang Seng and HSCEI broke their 4 week losing streaks.
Mexico rose to erase half of its past fortnight of declines to also post a bullish outside reverse week.
Scandinavian indices were amongst the few which fell for week.
Italy, Spain and FTSE 100 also fell.
Commodity prices most firmer.
Energy, Base Metals and Grains were stronger.
Precious metals were weaker with Palladium and Silver dropping the most.
Uranium, Pork, Urea and Oats also slumped.
As such, Lean Hogs aren’t overbought anymore.
Lithium Carbonate rose.
The Baltic Dry Index and Robust Coffee broke their 5 week falling streak.
Last week, Cattle and Platinum both posted a bearish outside reversal week. They duly fell this week.
Sugar have fallen for 5 straight weeks.
Rice have sunken for 7 consecutive weeks.
U.S.Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel has spent 24 weeks being oversold.
And Lithium Hydroxide has now lingered in weekly oversold territory for 69 consecutive weeks.
Currencies were fairly subdued.
The DXY Index is at its highest close in 4 months and is in a 5 week rising streak.
The Aussie rose and broke many 4 week losing streaks across various pairs.
The Loonie also rose and also broke its 5 week losing streak against the USD.
The CAD/EUR, USD/JPY and USD/KRW all posted a bullish outside reversal week.
The Swiss France and Japanese Yen fell.
The CHF/USD is in a 4 week losing streak.
The Colombian Peso isn’t oversold against the USD anymore.
EUR/USD had a bearish otiose reversal week as the Euro was generally weaker.
USD/CNH and the USD/SEK have climbed for 4 consecutive weeks.
And the GBP/AUD broke its 4 week winning streak.
The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;
Baltic Dry Index 8.5%, Brent Crude 1.5%, Coffee 4.5%, Lithium Hydroxide 5.6%, Tin 1.8%, Nickel 2.8%, Gasoline 2.3%, Robusta 2.3%, Dutch TTF Gas 8.3%, Corn 4%, Soybeans 3.7%, Shanghai 5.5%, CSI 300 5.5%, KBW Banks 8.4%, Budapest 3.2%, China A50 1.5%, Dow Jones Industrials 4.7%, Dow Jones Transports 6.1%, Egypt 2%, S&P SmallCap 600 8.7%, Russell 2000 8.7%, TAIEX 3.4%, Nasdaq Composite 5.7%, KRE Regional Banks 2.7%, S&P MidCap 400 6.3%, Mexico 2.4%, Nasdaq Biotechs 4.1%, Nasdaq 100 5.4%, Nikkei 225 3.8%, SOX 5.8%, S&P 500 4.7%, STI 4.8%, Nasdaq Transports 8.9%, TSX 2.1%, WIG 3.4%, ASX Financials 3.6%, BIST 3.4%, ASX Industrials 3.7% and the ASX 200 rode 2.2%.
The group of largest decliners from the week included;
Cocoa (1.4%), North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel (2.1%), Lean Hogs (4.3%), Copper (1.5%), Orange Juice (4.5%), Palladium (10.5%), Platinum (2.4%), Urea U.S. Gulf (2%), Urea Middle East (3.4%), Uranium (2.4%), Silver in AUD (3.9%), Silver in USD (3.5%), Gold in AUD (2.3%), Gold in CAD (2.2%), Gold in GBP (1.9%), Gold in USD (1.9%), Gold in ZAR (2.4%), Oats (9.5%), Rice (3%), MIB (2.5%), IBEX (2.5%), IDX (3.1%), Copenhagen (2.8%), PSI (2.3%) and the FTSE 100 fell 1.3%.
November 10, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
November 5, 2024 Leave a comment
This study overlays Bitcoin volatility against the S&P 500 Index.
It is saying to me that when Bitcoin volatility is overbought, buy equities
And when #Bitcoin #Volatility (BVOL) is registering an RSI reading below 38, then it seems that equities are stifled, perhaps signalling a peak.
BVOL traded below 38 last week.
November 5, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
Karri Asset Advisors
rob@karriasset.com.au
November 5, 2024 Leave a comment
I see another leg lower in the price of uranium.
The Sprott Uranium Trust is an example where it hasn’t made a new and recent ‘higher high’, while I’ll watch if it makes a ‘lower low’.
My posturing is not to sell, nor short but rather position to buy.
November 5, 2024
November 3, 2024 Leave a comment
A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.
The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.
* denotes multiple week inclusion
Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
British 2, 3, 5 and 10 year government bond yields
Lumber
Overbought (RSI > 70)
U.S. 10 year bond yield minus the U.S. Inflation Rate (YoY) *
Gold as priced in AUD, CAD, CHF, EUR, GBP USD & ZAR *
The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)
U.S. 5 year bond yield minus 3 month bill yield
U.S. 5 year bond yield minus U.S. Inflation Rate (YoY)
Lean Hogs
Pakistan’s KSE *
Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
BRL/USD
Copenhagen
Oversold (RSI < 30)
U.S. 3 month government bill yield *
Australian Coking Coal *
U.S. Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel *
North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel *
Lithium Carbonate *
Lithium Hydroxide *
The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)
Colombian Peso vs USD
Notes & Ideas:
Global government bond yields rose, again.
Australian yields have risen for 5 consecutive weeks.
The U.S. 10 year vs Euro 10 year spread yield has climbed for 7 straight weeks,
as has the U.S. 10 year bond yield minus the U.S. 10 year inflation breakeven rate.
U.S. 3 month bills are yielding their lowest since mid-March 2023.
U.S. 2’s are their highest weekly close in 3 months.
The U.S. 10 year bond yield has risen for 5 of the past 7 weeks.
And the Aussie yield curve is nearly overbought.
Equities were weaker, again.
The Hang Seng and HSCEI are in 4 week losing streaks.
The Nasdaq Compose broke its 7 week winning streak while also performing a bearish outside reversal.
Mexico’s main index has declined 4.5% over the past fortnight.
The ASX Materials index along with India’s Nifty and Sensex all broke their 4 week losing streak.
And Oslo’s OBX and Stockholm’s OMX30 both posted a weekly bearish outside reversal.
Commodity prices were weaker.
Energy prices saw weakness with gas prices having a shocker.
Palladium and Silver dropped out from overbought status.
This week, they dropped 8% and 3% respectively.
The Baltic Dry Index and Robusta Coffee have fallen for 5 straight weeks.
The former has fallen 40% over the past 4 weeks.
Copper broke its 4 week streak of declines, by only a whisker.
Lean Hogs have climbed for 5 weeks.
Cocoa recovered last weeks decline.
Cattle and Platinum both posted a bearish outside reversal week.
Nickel and Sugar have fallen for 4 straight weeks. The former may re-test recent lows.
Robusta Coffee and Rice have sunken for 5 and 6 consecutive weeks, respectively.
Gold was subdues, while Silver was a notable loser.
U.S.Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel has spent 23 weeks being oversold.
And Lithium Hydroxide has now lingered in weekly oversold territory for 68 consecutive weeks.
Currencies saw the most amount of streaks being extended.
The DXY Index is at its highest close in 3 months and is in a 4 week rising streak.
The Aussie weakened, again, now for the 4th week against many and for 5 weeks specifically versus the USD.
The Yen and Canadian Dollar were weaker.
The Loonie is in a 5 week losing streak against the USD.
I found it interesting that the CAD has risen for 3 weeks vs the AUD.
The Euro rose and the EUR/GBP posted a bullish outside reversal.
The GBP/USD, the JPY/USD, MYR/USD, SGD/USD and NZD/USD have all fallen for 5 straight weeks.
Philippines Peso is in a 6 week losing streak vs USD.
And the GBP has climbed for 4 weeks versus the Aussie.
The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;
Cocoa 8.4%, Lean Hogs 5.5%, Lumber 5%, Brent Crude 3.8%, Oats 5%, DJ Transports 1.5% and the KRE Regional Bank Index rose 1.3%.
The group of largest decliners from the week included;
Aluminium (3.3%), Rotterdam Coal (2.5%), Bloomberg Commodity Index (2.2%), Baltic Dry Index (2.3%), WTI Crude Oil (3.2%), JKM LNG (2.3%), Arabica Coffee (2.2%), Brent Crude Oil (3.6%), Lithium Carbonate (2.7%), Lithium Hydroxide (4.9%), Newcastle Coal (2.3%), Natural Gas (14.5%), Nickel (1.6%), Palladium (7.8%), Platinum (3.3%), Gasoline (3.5%), Robusta Coffee (3%), S&P GSCI (2.1%), CRB Index (1.8%), Dutch TTF Gas (10.4%), Uranium (3.3%), Silver in AUD (3.1%), Silver in USD (3.8%), Rice (1.8%), CSI 300 (1.7%), AEX (1.7%), Bovespa (1.4%), TAIEX (2.4%), Nasdaq Composite (1.5%), KOSPI (1.6%), Mexico (2.4%), FTSE 250 (1.6%), Nasdaq 100 (1.6%), Oslo (1.9%), Helsinki (2%), PSI (2.3%), SMI (1.8%), SOX (4.1%), Chile (2.8%), S&P 500 (1.4%) and ASX Financial fell 1.6%.
November 3, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
rob zdravevski's blog 