Trying to hear what's not being said
March 31, 2026 Leave a comment
My recent weekend Macro Extremes note cited weakness in Indian equities, bonds and its currency.
The study below emphasises the Monthly pricing of the Singapore Dollar against the Indian Rupee.
Those money changers in Raffles Place best stock up on some INR.
March 31, 2026
rob@karriasset.com.au
March 30, 2026 Leave a comment
It may seem obvious but we are near exhaustion in the streaks seen across a host of capital markets.
The following data and observances assists in quantifying this view.
A selection of equity indices are entering their 4th and 5th week of consecutive declines.
Streaks seldom extend to the 6th week.
An extract from my recent weekend’s edition of Macro Extremes, highlights;
https://robzdravevski.com/2026/03/29/macro-extremes-week-ending-march-27-2026/
“The Shanghai Composite, All World Developed ex USA, DAX, Hang Seng, IBB biotech, Indonesia’s IDX, FTSE 250, Nasdaq Biotech (NBI), OMX Stockholm, Philippines PSE and S&P Biotech (XBI) are in 4 week losing streaks.
The Dow Jones Industrials, Nasdaq Composite, Nasdaq 100, NIFTY, SENSEX, S&P 500 and ASX Financials have fallen for 5 weeks.”
And the following indices rose last week and snapped their 4 week losing streaks; Austria’s ATX, Russell 2000, S&P Small Cap 600, KRE Regional Banks, S&P MidCap 400, Copenhagen, S&P 600 and Nasdaq Transports.
For the bond market;
4 weeks of higher yields are seen in Australian, Belgian, Canadian, German, Danish, Spanish, Finnish, French, Greek, Japanese, Dutch, Kiwi, Polish, Portuguese, Swedish and American 10 year bonds.”
Amongst commodities;
“WTI Crude, CRB Index, Gasoil and Middle Eastern Urea have closed higher for 6 weeks straight.
Gasoline, Brent Crude, Heating Oil, JKM LNG snapped their 5-week streak of higher prices.”
Lastly, in the long running AAII Investor Sentiment Survey;
the latest series of weekly results sees the bearish column exceeding a reading of 46% for the past 3 weeks.
https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey
Over the past 36 years (since 1990), we have seen such qualifying clusters of bearishness on 24 occasions.
That equates to such an event accounting for 4% of the time.
16 of the 24 occurrences were contained to a period of 3 or 4 weeks only.
These and other Clusters also occurred around major equity stress, such as;
These are not random occurrences as they align with systemic drawdowns or late-stage capitulation capturing;
In summary, these periods cluster around major equity lows or accumulation zones.
As written in past newsletters,
“I don’t see any structural problems in the global equity market”.
In the next newsletter, I’ll share some views about themes and sectors that I find interesting.
You can subscribe to my newsletter by click the button on the latest newsletter
March 29, 2026 Leave a comment
A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.
The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.
n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.
* denotes multiple week inclusion
Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
10-year Austria, Belgian, Chilean, German, Danish, Spanish, Finnish, French, British, Norwegian, Kiwi and U.S. government bond yields.
2, 3, 5, 7 and 20-year U.S. government bond yields.
British 30-year bond yields
U.S. 5–7-year Investment Grade and High Yield yields
U.S. 10-year bond yield minus U.S. 10 year inflation breakeven rate
Cotton *
Sugar *
Oats *
Overbought (RSI > 70)
2-year British and Japanese government bond yields.
Aussie and British 3-year government bond yields.
Australian and Japanese 5-year bond yields.
5 & 10-year Japanese bond yields.
Richards Bay Coal *
Rotterdam Coal *
Bloomberg Commodity Index *
Brent Crude Oil *
WTI Crude Oil *
JKM LNG in USD
Newcastle Coal *
S&P GSCI Index *
CRB Index *
Urea (U.S, Gulf and Middle East) *
AUD/INR *
OBX *
The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)
Australian, Chilean, German and Italian 2-year government bond yields.
5 year Australian and German bond yields
10-year Greek, Indonesian, Italian, Korean, Polish, Portuguese & Turkish government bond yields.
Heating Oil *
JKM LNG in Yen *
Gasoline *
Gasoil *
Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
IEF
IEI *
SHY *
U.S. 10-year minus U.S. 2-year bond yield spread *
U.S. 10-year minus 5-year bond yield spread
U.S. 30-year minus U.S. 10-year bond yield spread *
Lumber
PHP/USD
CSI 300
CAC Index *
DAX Index *
MIB
HSCEI
Hang Seng
Nasdaq Composite *
Nasdaq 100
SMI
S&P 500
ASX Industrials *
ASX Small Caps
Oversold (RSI < 30)
Australian 10-year minus Aussie 2-year bond yield spread
Cocoa
NZD/AUD *
HKD/USD *
KRW/USD *
IDX Composite *
The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)
INR/USD *
NIFTY *
SENSEX *
Notes & Ideas:
Government bond yields rose, again.
A few more 10-year government bond yields joined the overbought list.
4 weeks of higher yields are seen in Australian, Belgian, Canadian, German, Danish, Spanish, Finnish, French, Greek, Japanese, Dutch, Kiwi, Polish, Portuguese, Swedish and American 10 year bonds.
Chilean 10-year yields have climbed for 5 weeks.
The following also have 4 week streaks of higher yields; Aussie, German, Italian and U.S. 2’s, the U.S. 3 year, German and American 5 years along with U.S & British 30 years.
U.S. 5 and 10 years minus inflation spread yields have also increased for 4 weeks.
Meanwhile, British 3 and 5 year bond yields fell and snapped their 4 week rise.
And Chilean 2-year yields have risen for 8 consecutive weeks.
Equities were mainly lower, in a tale of some streaks being extended while others were broken.
Taiwan’s TAEIX, South Korea’s KOSPI and Israel’s TA 35 Index were the last to leave overbought land.
The Shanghai Composite, All World Developed ex USA, DAX, Hang Seng, IBB, Indonesia’s IDX, FTSE 250, NBI, Stockholm, PSE and XBI are in 4 week losing streaks.
The DJ Industrials, Nasdaq Composite, Nasdaq 100, NIFTY, SENSEX, S&P 500 and ASX Financials have fallen for 5 weeks.
China’s FCTAC has declined for 6 weeks.
Austria’s ATX, Russell 2000, S&P Small Cap 600, KRE Regional Banks, S&P MidCap 400, Copenhagen, S&P 600 and Nasdaq Transports rose to snap their 4 straight weeks of decline.
China’s FCATC has fallen for 5 weeks.
Pakistan’s KSE has declined for 9 weeks.
Inversely, Norway’s OBX has risen for 9 weeks.
And India’s NIFTY is at its lowest close since early April 2025.
Commodities were mixed.
Intra-week saw large swings but the changes in week to week close where muted and subdued.
Oils, Distillates, Aluminium, Cotton, Silver & Tin were the notable gainers.
Gases, Coffee, Cocoa, Palladium, Platinum & Oats were amongst the decliners.
Oats, Palm Oil and Dutch TTF Gas left overbought territory.
WTI Crude, CRB Index, Gasoil and Middle Eastern Urea have closed higher for 6 weeks straight.
Gasoline, Brent Crude, Heating Oil, JKM LNG snapped their 5-week streak of higher prices.
Sugar #16 is in a 7-week winning streak.
Palladium and Platinum have declined for 4 weeks, falling 27% and 23% respectively, over that time.
And U.S. Gulf Urea prices have risen for 16 consecutive weeks.
Currencies were quieter.
The Aussie fell.
All of the Aussie pairs except against the Kiwi and Rupee exited
AUD/THB fell and snapped a 5-week rising streak.
CAD was lower.
Euro rose.
The USD was mainly higher,
CLP/USD rose slightly to snap its 5-week losing streak.
And the USD/ZAR is in a 4-week winning streak.
The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;
Aluminium 2%, WTI Crude Oil 1.4%, Cotton 3.2%, Heating Oil 10.7%, Cattle 2.3%, Tin 5.9%, LME Aluminium 3.3%, Orange Juice 9.3%, Urea U.S. Gulf 1.9%, Gasoil 1.9%, Silver in AUD 4.9%, Silver in USD 2.7%, Gold in AUD 2.1%, Wheat 1.6%, DJ Transports 1.8%, BOVESPA 3%, Mexico 4%, SA40 1.8%, SMI 2%, S&P 600 1.1%, Nasdaq Transports 1.8%, TSX 2.1%, Vietnam 1.5% and ASX Materials rose 4.6%.
The group of largest decliners from the week included;
Cocoa (2.8%), JKM LNG (6%), Arabica Coffee (2.6%), Lumber (2.1%), Palladium (2.7%), Platinum (5.1%), Gasoline (1.3%), Robusta Coffee (1.9%), Dutch TTF Gas (8.4%), Oats (4.6%), CSI 300 (1.4%), FCATC (2.9%), Nasdaq Composite (3.2%), KOSPI (5.9%), FTSE 250 (1.8%), Nasdaq 100 (3.2%), SOX (2.8%), S&P 500 (2.1%), TA35 (5%) and BIST fell 2.7%.
March 29, 2026
By Rob Zdravevski
March 29, 2026 Leave a comment
WTI Crude Oil seldom trades here, while Gasoline does it twice as much.
Industrial buyers shouldn’t hedge nor lock in forward prices. Stay on the spot market.
Those hoarding on tankers and in tanks may be disappointed.
Mach 29, 2026
rob@karriasset.com.au
March 28, 2026 Leave a comment
Saudi Arabian equities have risen 6% from its recent ebb.
The first strike on Iran occurred on February 28, 2026.
Since then, the Nasdaq 100 has fallen 7%.
March 28, 2026
rob@karriasset.com.au
March 27, 2026 Leave a comment
Netflix price changes (in the U.S.) for 2026 include the Standard (No Ads) subscription increasing 11% by $2, from $17.99 to $19.99 per month.
I bet that nobody is cancelling their subscription.
#pricingpower
March 23, 2026 Leave a comment
At US$99, the WTI Crude Oil price is subjectively resembling a mini-parabola.
My work suggests that it falls $30, rather than rising $30.
Adding to the weight of my view is challenging the antithesis of the broad (anecdotally) opinion that WTI Crude price sees $150 or $200.
Whilst it’s not the most intellectual of analysis, observing the madness of the crowd has some merit.
March 23, 2026
rob@karriasset.com.au
March 22, 2026 Leave a comment
A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.
The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.
n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.
* denotes multiple week inclusion
Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
10-year Austria, Belgian, Brazilian, Chilan, Czech, Spanish, British, Italian, Norwegian, Polish, Portuguese and U.S. government bond yields.
2-year Chilean and U.S. government bond yields.
3-year U.S. bond yields
5-year EU and U.S. bond yields
7-year U.S. bond yields
20 year U.S. bond yields
British 30-year bond yields
U.S. 5–7-year Investment Grade, High Yield and BB Rated yields
TBX
U.S. 5-year bond yield minus U.S. 3 month bill yield
U.S. 5-year bond yield minus U.S. inflation rate spread
Cotton
Palm Oil *
Sugar
Oats *
AUC/CHF *
Overbought (RSI > 70)
Aussie 3-year government bond yields.
Australian and Japanese 5-year bond yields.
10-year Japanese bond yields
Australian Coking Coal
Rotterdam Coal *
Bloomberg Commodity Index *
North American Hot Rolled Coil Steel *
AUD/EUR *
AUD/GBP *
AUD/IDR
AUD/INR
AUD/JPY
AUD/SGD
CNH/USD
TAEIX *
KOSPI
OBX *
TA 35 Index *
The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)
Australian, EU, British and Italian 2-year government bond yields.
British 3 & 5 year bond yields
Indonesian and Greek 10-year government bond yields.
Richards Bay Coal *
Brent Crude Oil *
WTI Crude Oil *
Heating Oil *
JKM LNG in USD and Yen *
Newcastle Coal *
Gasoline *
S&P GSCI Index *
CRB Index *
Dutch TTF Gas *
Urea (U.S, Gulf and Middle East) *
Gasoil *
AUD/ZAR
AUD/THB *
Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
IEI
SHY
U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 2 year bond yield spread *
U.S. 5 year minus 2 year bond yield spread
U.S. 30 year minus U.S. 10 year bond yield spread
CHF/AUD *
KRW/USD *
CAC Index
IDX Composite *
DAX Index
Nasdaq Composite
S&P 500
ASX Industrials *
UAE’s DFM Index
Oversold (RSI < 30)
EUR/AUD
GBP/AUD *
HKD/USD
JPY/AUD
The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)
Australian 10 year minus Aussie 2 year bond yield spread
Australian 10 year minus Aussie 5 year bond yield spread
NZD/AUD *
INR/USD
NIFTY *
SENSEX *
Notes & Ideas:
Government bond yields rose, again.
More 10-year government bond yields joined the overbought list.
Many more yield spreads are on this week’s list.
And Chilean 2-year yields have risen for 7 consecutive weeks.
Equities continued their decline.
Austria’s ATX, Indonesia’s IDX, DJ Industrials, BOVESPA, S&P Small Cap 600, Russell 2000, Nasdaq Composite, KRE Regional Banks, S&P MidCap 400, Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, NIFTY and ASX Financials have all declined for 4 straight weeks.
China’s FCATC has fallen for 5 weeks.
Pakistan’s KSE has declined for 8 weeks.
Inversely, Norway’s OBX has risen for 8 weeks.
Australia’s Materials Index has slumped 20% within 3 weeks.
Indonesia’s IDX Composite man reverted having fallen 27% over the past 8 weeks.
And India’s NIFTY is at its lowest close since early April 2025.
Commodities were mixed, again.
Coal, Oils, LNG, Coffee, Sugar and Distillates were the notable gainers.
Aluminium, Copper, Tn, Orange Juice, Palladium, Silver, Gold and Soybeans were amongst the decliners.
Gold in no longer overbought, no matter which currency.
Brent Crude, Heating Oil, WTI Crude, JKM LNG, Gasoline, CRB Index and Middle Eastern Urea have closed higher for 5 weeks straight.
Sugar #16 is in a 6-week winning streak.
Iron Ore fell and snapped 4 weeks of advance.
Soybeans fell and broke a 6 week winning streak
U.S. Gulf Urea prices have risen for 15 consecutive weeks.
And Copper is at its lowest weekly close since late November, 2025.
Currencies were quieter.
The Aussie rose and AUD pairs still feature amongst the extremes.
AUD/EUR fell and snapped a 12 week rising streak.
The Loonie was weaker.
The Euro rose.
The Kiwi rose against the Aussie and broke a 6 week losing run.
CAD/JPY fell and broke a 4 week winning streak.
While the Colombian Peso has declined for 5 weeks against the USD.
The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;
Australian Coking Coal 3.6%, Richards Bay Coal 4.6%, Brent Crude 8.8%, WTI Crude 1.9%, Cotton 2.2%, Heating Oil 13.8%, JKM LNG 18.4%, Arabica Coffee 8.6%, Cattle 1.7%, JKM LNG in Yen9.5%, Newcastle Coal 7.5%, Gasoline 8%, Robusta Coffee 6.1%, Sugar 9.3%, Sugar #16 5.3%, Dutch TTF Gas 16.9%, Urea U.S. Gulf 3.2%, Gasoil 19%, KBW Banks 1.6%, EGX 1.8%, KOSPI 5.4%, SET 1.7%, STI 2.2%, TA35 3.3% and Dubai’s DFM Index rose 2.3%.
The group of largest decliners from the week included;
Aluminium (8.8%), Lean Hogs (2.3%), Copper (6.6%), Lithium Carbonate (2.5%), Lithium Hydroxide (2.1%), Tin (8.4%), Natural Gas (2%), Orange Juice (19%), Palladium (8.5%), Platinum (3.5%), Uranium (2.9%), Silver in AUD (16.2%), Silver in USD (15.8%), Gold in AUD (11%), Gold in CAD (10.5%), Gold in CHF (10.8%), Gold in EUR (11.6%), Gold in GBP (11.2%), Gold in USD (10.5%), Gold in ZAR (10.2%), Oats (4.9%), Rice (2.5%), Soybean (5.2%), Wheat (3%), Shanghai Composite (3.4%), CSI 300 (2.2%), All World Developed ex USA (1.6%), AEX (4%), ATX (1.3%), CAC (3.1%), DAX (4.6%), DJ Industrials (2.3%), FCATC (4.3%), MIB (3.3%), IBB (2.3%), IBEX (2%), Russell 2000 (1.8%), Nasdaq Composite (2.1%), FTSE 250 (3.3%), S&P MidCap 400 (1.6%), Mexico (2.3%), Nasdaq 100 (2%), Copenhagen (2.7%), Helsinki (2.4%), Stockholm (5.1%), South Africa 40 (4.8%), SMI (4%), IGPA (1.7%), S&P 500 (1.9%), TSX (3.8%), FTSE (3.3%), Vietnam (2.9%), ASX 200 (2.2%), ASX Materials (7.1%), ASX Industrials (2.4%) and the ASX Smal Caps fell 4%.
March 22, 2026
By Rob Zdravevski
March 22, 2026 Leave a comment
The ASX Industrials index has fallen 10% over the past 3 weeks,
and is trading at some extremes not seen for a while,
albeit, it’s not enough to register a quinella or trifecta of extremes.
March 22, 2026
rob@karriasset.com.au
March 21, 2026 Leave a comment
The circles in the attached price chart of Blackstone told me when not to chase and buy the stock.
And if you owned it, these moments were also good signals to suggest selling.
For those who like to buy and hold, today’s price is the same level seen 5 years ago.
And now……..
March 21, 2026
rob@karriasset.com.au
rob zdravevski's blog 