rob zdravevski's blog

Macro Extremes (week ending September 18, 2026)

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Austrian and Czech 10-year government bond yields *

Chilean 10’s minus 2’s yield spread

U.S. high yield and BB Index *

Heating Oil *

Oats

And Portugal’s PSI Index

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Japanese 2, 5 and 10-year bond yield *

U.S. 5–7-year corporate bond yields *

Australian Coking Coal

North American Hot Rolled Coiled Steel *

JKM LNG in $ *

Rice *

Heating Oil crack spread *

Gasoline *

Dutch TTF Gas *

Gasoil and its crack spread *

AUD/CHF *

CNH/USD *

Hungary’s BUX Index

Norway’s OBX *

Singapore’ Strait Times Index

And Poland’s WIG Index *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Belgian, Canadian, Danish, Spanish, Finnish, French, Greek, Italian, Dutch and Portuguese 10-year government bond yields

The U.S. and EU yield curves (except for the 30’s)

TBX

U.S. 5-year bond yield minus 5-year inflation breakeven rate spread *

U.S. 10-year bond yield minus 10-year inflation breakeven rate spread *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

NZD/AUD

Türkiye’s BIST Index

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

Lean Hogs

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

IEF & IEI

SHY

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 5-year bond yield spread

U.S. 30 year minus U.S. 10-year bond yield spread

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields were mixed but several fell enough to see them drop out from overbought extremes.

British 2 year and Japanese 5-year bond yields are in 4-week winning streaks.

Indian 10 year and U.S. 2- and 3-year bond yields have climb for 5 weeks.

Belgian, Czech, Danish, Spanish, Finnish, French, Greek, Italian, Polish, Portuguese and Swedish 10-year yields have risen for 6 consecutive weeks.

As have the British 3’s, Euro 2’s and 5’s along with the U.S. 5- and 7-year yields and the U.S. 5-year bond minus 3-month bill yield spread.

While the U.S. 10 minus 5-year yield spread and the IEI ETF have closed lower for the past 5 weeks.

Equities were mostly weaker.

Malaysia’s KLSE and Mexico’s IPC have fallen for the past 4 weeks.

The Dow Jones Transports, FCATC, S&P Small Cap 600 and TSX have declined for 5 weeks.

The CSI 300, CAC 40, Nifty, Sensex and Nasdaq Transports are in 6-week losing streaks.

Brazil’s Bovespa has advanced for the past 5 weeks.

And Norway’s OBX is in a 10-week winning streak.

Commodities prices told a mixed story.

Many commodities left the extreme list.

Distillates, Gases, Copper, Oats, Silver and Gold were the notable gainers.

Coal, Cocoa, Cotton, Coffee, Lithium, Sugar and Rice were amongst the largest decliners.

Rice and Gasoline fell and snapped 4 weeks of higher prices.

U.S. Gulf Urea prices have climbed for 5 weeks.

JKM LNG and Dutch TTF fell and broke their 5-week winning streaks.

Gasoline and the Gasoil Oil crack spread are in 6-week winning streaks.

And Tin has fallen for 5 weeks.

Currencies were quiet, again.

The Aussie eeked out small gains except vs. the USD

The Loonie was unchanged to weaker.

Euro was weaker, as did the Yen.

The Yen weakness saw it find relief from its ‘extremes’.

The Kiwi is in a 4-week losing streak against the AUD & USD.

The USD was strong and looking so.

Its advance was enough to see it snap its 4-week losing streak against the Korean Won.

And the PHP/USD has fallen for 6 weeks.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Australian Coking Coal 2.6%, Copper 2.2%, Heating Oil 1.9%, Natural Gas 2.9%, Gasoline 4.1%, Urea U.S. Gulf 1.9%, Gasoil 2%, Silver 3%, Gold 1,5%, Oats 7.3%, Gasoil crack spread 2.7%, Heating Oil crack spread 3.2%, Gasoline crack spread 14.3%, TAIEX 2.2%, Nikkei 225 1.6%, IGPA 1.4%, TA35 1.6% and the ASX Small Caps rose 1.3%.

The group of largest decliners for the week included; 

Richards Bay Coal (2.1%), Rotterdam Coal (1.4%), Baltic Dry Index (3.9%), Cocoa (10.6%), Cotton (5.7%), Hogs (4.2%), JKM LNG (4.2%), Arabica Coffee (1.8%), Lumber (5.6%), Cattle (1.7%), JKM LNG in Yen (4.4%), Lithium Carbonate (1.9%), Lithium Hydroxide (2.2%), Newcastle Coal (3.1%), Orange Juice (3%), Robusta Coffee (3.7%), Sugar (4.4%), Rice (2.4%), Wheat (1.5%), All World Developed ex USA (1.6%), ATX (1.3%), KBW Banks Index (4.9%), CAC (1.4%), IDX (1.5%), DJ Industrials (1.9%), DJ Transports (2.7%), Saudi Tadawal (2.2%), MIB (1.8%), IBEX (1.6%), S&P SmallCap 600 (2.3%), Dublin (1.7%), Russell 2000 (1.7%), KRE (1.6%), S&P MidCap 400 (1.8%), PSE (3.4%), PX (2.3%), SA40 (2.3%), Eurostoxx 50 (1.4%), BIST (8.2%) and Nasdaq Transports fell 3.3%.

September 20, 2026

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au

Lithium stocks are blowing off recent steam

Lithium is retracing a recent pop. There are correlations abound and no is talking about this commodity.

September 18, 2026

#liontown #sqm #albermarle #pls

Maybe short Materials / Long Bonds?

I’m tinkering about being long stocks in the Materials sector…you know, building materials, steel, chemicals, aggregates etc;

but I think the Materials Index peaks first, and then 2-4 months later, bond yields peak.

So, I may wait 4 months to buy “Materials” and perhaps around the same time, advise to also increase fixed income exposure.

Just some thinking at this stage.

September 18, 2026

Reading The Tape – JD.Com (9616 HK)

A major component of my work is that I provide evidence based empirical price analysis and probability reasoning to investors to assist validating the decision of “why today was the day that you bought, added, lightened or exited a security”.

You can like a stock (or any other asset) because of its theme or story, but prices matter and they tell you everything.

Today, I’m highlighting Hong Kong listed stock JD.Com (9616:HK).

My read of the tape says this stock falls from its current price of HK$105 to HK$91.

September 16, 2026

rob@karriasset.com.au

Macro Extremes (week ending September 11, 2026)

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Austrian, Belgian, Spanish, Greek, Irish, Kiwi and Portuguese 10-year government bond yields

British yield curve except the 30’s

U.S. high yield and BB Index

Richards Bay Coal

Rotterdam Coal

WTI Crude

North American Hot Rolled Coiled Steel *

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Japanese 2, 5 and 10-year bond yield *

U.S. 5-year bond yield minus 5-year inflation breakeven rate spread *

U.S. 10-year bond yield minus 10-year inflation breakeven rate spread *

JKM LNG in $ *

Rice *

Heating Oil crack spread *

AUD/CHF *

CNH/USD *

COP/USD

Austria’s ATX Index *

Hungary’s BUX Index

Norway’s OBX *

And Poland’s WIG Index *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Belgian, Canadian, Danish, Finnish, French, Italian and Dutch 10-year government bond yields

The Australian, EU, U.S. yield curve (except for the 30’s)

U.S. 5–7-year corporate bond yields

TBX

Heating Oil *

JKM LNG in Yen *

Gasoline *

Sugar *

Dutch TTF Gas

Gasoil *

Gasoil crack spread *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

SHY

AUD/JPY

CAD/JPY *

CHF/AUD *

EUR/JPY *

GBP/JPY

USD/JPY

FCATC Index

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

USD/KRW *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

CHF/JPY *

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields saw the most action and rose, again except for Brazilian 10’s.

Indian 10 year and U.S. 2- and 3-year bond yields have climb for 4 weeks.

Austrian, Belgian, Czech, Danish, Spanish, EU curve, Finnish, French, British curve, Greek, Irish, Italian, Dutch, Polish, Portuguese and Swedish 10-year yields have risen for 5 consecutive weeks.

As have the U.S. 5- and 7-year yields.

Australian 3-, 5- and 10-year yields, along with Japanese 2’s are in a 6-week winning streaks.

While the U.S. 30 minus 10-year yield spread has closed lower for the past 4 weeks.

Equities were mixed.

The Dow Jones Transports, S&P Small Cap 600 and TSX have declined for 4 weeks.

The CSI 300, CAC 40, China A50, FCATC, Nifty, Sensex and Nasdaq Transports are in 5-week losing streaks.

Brazil’s Bovespa has advanced for the past 4 weeks.

And Norway’s OBX is in a 9-week winning streak.

Commodities prices told a mixed story.

Coal, Oil, Distillates, Gases, Sugar and Rice were the notable gainers.

Cocoa, Cotton, Coffee, Lithium, Palladium, and Corn were amongst the largest decliners.

Many streaks came to an end while,

Rice and U.S. Guld Urea prices have climbed for 4 weeks.

JKM LNG, Gasoline, Dutch TTF and the Gasoil Oil crack spread are in 5-week winning streaks.

And Tin has fallen for 4 weeks.

Currencies were quieter.

The Aussie was mixed but mainly took a breather.

mainly higher.

AUD/EUR fell and broke a 5-week winning streak.

The Euro and Yen rose.

The latter features in this week’s list.

Kiwi was weaker.

The U.S. Dollar saw strength.

While the USD/KRW has fallen for 4 weeks.

And the PHP/USD has fallen for 5 weeks.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Bloomberg Commodity Index 1.7%, Brent Crude 8.7%, WTI Crude 9.4%, Heating Oil 9.2%, JKM LNG 3.6%, Lumber 1.6%, Cattle 3.2%, JKM LNG in Yen 12.8%, Gasoline 2.9%, Robusta Coffee 2.8%, S&P GSCI 2.2%, Dutch TTF Gas 10.5%, Urea U.S. Gulf 1.8%, Gasoil 12.9%, Oats 2.8%, Gasoil crack 11.1%, Heating Oil crack 7.6%, BUX 3.2%, Kospi 3.3%, Helsinki 1.3% and BIST rose 3.3%.

The group of largest decliners for the week included; 

Australian Coking Coal (2.6%), Aluminium (1.9%), Baltic Dry Index (3.3%), Cocoa (3.7%), EHR (1.9%), Palm Oil (2.3%), Copper (2%), Arabica Coffee (3.4%), Lithium Carbonate (2.8%), Newcastle Coal (3.3%), Natural Gas (4.8%), Nickel (2.3%), Orange Juice (7%), Palladium (5.7%), Platinum (1.6%), Tin (2.7%), Silver (2.6%), Gold (1.8%), Gasoline crack (8%), Naphtha (7.1%), ZEX (1.3%), IDX (1.4%), DAX (1.8%), DJ Industrials (1.8%), FCATC (3.1%), HSCEI (3.6%), Hang Seng (3.3%), IBB (4.2%), S&P SmallCap 600 2.2%, KRE (1.8%), KSE (2.8%), FTSE 250 (2.5%), S&P MidCap 400 (1.9%), Mexico (1.5%), NBI (4.3%), Nikkei 225 (1.6%), Nifty (2.1%), Copenhagen (2.5%), Russell 2000 (2.4%), Sensex (2.3%), SMI (4.3%), IGPA (1.9%), STI (1.8%), Nasdaq Transports (1.8%), TSX (2.2%), FTSE 100 (1.7%), Vietnam (3.1%), XBI (4.7%), ASX Financials (2.3%), ASX 200 (2.9%), ASX Materials (3.9%) and ASX Small Caps fell 3%.

September 13, 2026

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au

Still fancy commodities, but it’s in the timing

I like the ‘long’ commodity trade, particularly the ‘harder commodities’, but the beginning of the upward move began more than a year ago, and it wouldn’t have hurt to have gotten set earlier than that.

You’ll see an example of that in the chart of the Van Eck Australian Resource ETF pasted below.

At the beginning of the decade, I was a commodity bear and then in mid- 2023, I started writing about my ‘warming’ to commodities.

Commodity bullishness – illustrated

Now, I’m looking for a retracement.

Recently, cartwheels and backflips were being done when BHP’s share price was heralded as the largest capitalised company on the ASX.

Anyway, I think BHP’s stock price can decline at least 30% from its recent peak.

September 11, 2026

rob@karriasset.com.au

Gold price update – Sept 11, 2026

My June 19, 2026 Gold price call said the pullback was done.

An interim rally was indeed seen.

Gold price update

But my call of USD Gold visiting the US$3,100 region still stands.

September 11, 2026

rob@karriasset.com.au

The long and short of EU bond yields

EU 10 year bond yields are registering one of my overbought quinellas for the first time since September 2022.

They’ll appear in this weekend’s edition of my Macro Extremes.

For now, I’m recognising the upward momentum (which came into effect in late July ’26) as such but my call will be for this yield to pullback to 3% in the medium term, before seeing them settle into a new and higher atmosphere.

Overall, the EU 10 year bond yield is mimicking ‘shapes’ that I’m observing in the U.S. 10 year bond yield.

Incidentally, the U.S. 10 year bond yield is making shapes not seen since 1965.

September 11, 2026

rob@karriasset.com.au

European steel prices go from basement to penthouse

In the June 28, 2026 edition of Macro Extremes, North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel (EHR) appeared in the ‘oversold quinella’ category.

Macro Extremes (week ending June 26, 2026)

The front month of that commodity was trading around the EUR 540 mark.

This week, EHR is trading around EUR 740 and is now appears as entrant in the ‘overbought quinella’ section in the latest weekly edition of Macro Extremes.

That’ll do !

September 10, 2026

rob@karriasset.com.au

Prices tell us the temperature

ASX listed Pinnacle Investment Management owns approximately 35% of Metrics Credit Holdings.

This fact is not a design to pile onto a headline of woes.

Rather the study below of Pinnacle’s stock price reminds us of how prices (not narrative) tell us everything.

Furthermore, how parabolas honour mean reversion quicker than most and how prices can also revert while the mean converges.

September 10, 2026

rob@karriasset.com.au