rob zdravevski's blog

Macro Extremes (week ending March 13, 2026)

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities. 

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Austria, Brazilian, Swiss, Czech, Spanish, British, Greek, Indonesian, Italian, Norwegian, Polish and Portuguese 10-year government bond yields.

2 & 3 year British and U.S. government bond yields.

British 5 year bond yield

U.S. 5-7 year Investment Grade, High Yield and BB Rated yields

Palm Oil

Corn

Wheat *

AUD/CHF

AUD/ZAR

CAD/EUR

CAD/GBP

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Australian 2- & 3-year government bond yield.

Japanese 2, 5 and 10 year bond yields.

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

Gold in CHF, EUR, GBP and ZAR *

AUD/GBP *

AUD/IDR *

AUD/JPY *

AUD/SGD *

CNH/USD *

TAEIX *

OBX *

TA 35 Index

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

2-year German and Italian bond yields

Richards Bay Coal *

Aluminium *

Rotterdam Coal *

Bloomberg Commodity Index *

Brent Crude Oil *

WTI Crude Oil *

Heating Oil *

North American Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

JKM LNG in USD and Yen *

Newcastle Coal *

Gasoline *

S&P GSCI Index *

CRB Index *

Dutch TTF Gas *

Urea (U.S, Gulf and Middle East) *

Gasoil *

Oats *

Soybeans

AUD/EUR *

AUD/THB *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

CHF/AUD

KRW/USD

IDX Composite *

HSCEI *

Hang Seng *

Pakistan’s KSE

ASX Industrials

UAE’s DFM Index

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

Australian 10 year minus Aussie 2-year yield spread *

London and CME Cocoa *

Sugar #16 *

EUR/CHF *

GBP/AUD *

INR/USD

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

NZD/AUD *

NIFTY

SENSEX

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields rose, again.

A host of new 10 year government bond yields joined the overbought list.

Some U.S. and EU yields are also members of this week’s edition.

And Chilean 2 year yields have risen for  weeks.

Equities continued their decline.

Only few appear in the group of advancers.

Norway’s OBX has risen for 7 weeks.

Indonesia’s IDX Composite man reverted having fallen 23% over the past 7 weeks.

The Dow Jones Transports is 10% lower over the past fortnight.

Dubai’s DFM Index has fallen 18% over the same time.

India’s NIFTY is at its lowest close since early April 2025

And some Hong Kong indices are oversold.

Commodities were mixed.

Oils, Distillates Palm Oil, Orange Juice, Oats, Soybeans and Sugar were the notable gainers. 

Coal, Coffee, Platinum, Palladium, Tin and Silver were amongst the decliners.

Gold in some currencies are no longer overbought.

Aluminium, Brent Crude, Heating Oil, WTI Crude, JKM LNG, Gasoline, CRB Index and Middle Eastern Urea have closed higher for 4 weeks straight.

Sugar #16 is in a 5 week winning streak.

Soybeans have climbed for 6 weeks.

U.S. Gulf Urea prices have risen for 14 consecutive weeks.

And Copper is at its lowest weekly close since December 29, 2025.

Currencies were busy.

The Aussie rose and AUD pairs still feature amongst the extremes.

AUD/EUR in a12 week rising streak.

The Loonie was firmer.

The Swissie fell.

And the Yen was mixed.

CAD/JPY has climbed for 4 weeks.

While the Colombian Peso has declined for 4 weeks against the USD.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Australian Coking Coal 4.5%, Bloomberg Commodity Index 2.6%, Brent Crude 11.3%, Cocoa 2.1%, WTI Crude 8.6%, Cotton 2.6%, DXY Index 1.7%, Palm Oil 4.7%, Heating Oil 10.8%, JKM LNG 2.1%, Lumber 1.5%, Orange Juice 10.6%, Gasoline 10.7%, Sugar 1.9%, Sugar #16 2.7%, CRB Index 3.9%, Urea U.S. Gulf 3.4%, Gasoil 2.4%, Corn 1.5%, Oats 10.3%, Soybeans 2%, AEX 2.2%, China A50 2.1%, OBX 2.2%, SOX 1.8%, IGPA 1.6% and BIST rose 2.4%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

Richards Bay Coal (1.8%), Rotterdam Coal (3.9%), Iron Ore (2.5%), Lean Hogs (2.3%), Arabica Coffee (2.8%), Cattle (1.6%), JKM LNG in Yen (4.4%), Lithium Hydroxide (1.7%), Natural Gas (1.7%), Palladium (5%), Platinum (4.7%), Robusta Coffee (8.4%), Tin (5.9%), Dutch TTF Gas (4.7%), Silver in AUD (3.9%), Silver in ISD (4.5%), Gold in AUD (2.2%), Gold in CAD (1.9%)< Gold in GBP (1.5%), Gold in USD (3%), All World Developed ex USA (2.3%), ATX (2.6%), KBW Banks (4.2%), IDX (5.9%), DJ Industrials (1.9%), DJ Transports (4%), S&P Small Cap 600 (2.2%), Russell 2000 (1.7%), KRE Regional Banks (2.8%), KSE (2.3%), KOSPI (1.8%), FTSE 250 (1.9%), S&P MidCap 400 (1.9%), Mexico (2.5%), Nikkei 225 (3.2%), NIFTY (5.3%), Copenhagen (1.5%), PSE (4.1%), PX (3%), SENSEX (5.5%), SMI (2%), S&P 500 (1.6%), TA35 (4.1%), Nasdaq Transports (5.7%), TSX (1.6%), Vietnam (4.1%), XBI (1.8%), ASX 200 (2.6%), ASX Materials (4.7%), ASX Industrials (4.3%), ASX Small Caps (4.7%) and the UAE’s DFM Index sunk 8.3%.

March 15, 2026

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au 

Ahhhh, those were the days to buy Oil

The December 21, 2025 edition of my weekly, weekend Macro Extremes pointed to Brent Crude registered an oversold extreme.

Macro Extremes (week ending December 19, 2025)

That was when the long trade had an acceptable risk/reward proposition.

Any new long position (in the absence of subscribing to momentum) initiated over the past week or three wasn’t stacked with the best probability.

March 13, 2026

rob@karriasset.com.au

Alighting from the Oil train

Prices tell you everything.
As far as WTI Crude Oil prices are concerned,
it’s time to have one foot out the door.

They seldom (to never) trade to the metrics and extremes that I’m seeing today.

March 9, 2026
rob@karriasset.com.au

Macro Extremes (week ending March 6, 2026)

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities. 

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Italian, Japanese, British and European 2-year government bond yields

British and European 3-year bond yields

Czech, British, Greek, Indonesian, Italian, Norwegian and Portuguese 10-year bond yields

Oats *

AUD/ZAR

CAD/EUR

CAD/GBP

USD/KRW

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Australian 2- & 3-year government bond yield

Australian 10 year minus U.S. 10-year bond yield spread

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel

Gold in AUD, CAD, CHF, EUR, GBP, USD and ZAR *

AUD/EUR *

AUD/GBP *

AUD/IDR *

AUD/INR *

AUD/JPY *

AUD/SGD *

AUD/THB

CHF/JPY *

CNH/USD *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Richards Bay Coal

Aluminium *

Rotterdam Coal

Bloomberg Commodity Index

Brent Crude Oil

WTI Crude Oil

Heating Oil

North American Hot Rolled Coil Steel

JKM LNG in USD and Yen

Newcastle Coal

Gasoline

S&P GSCI Index

CRB Index

Dutch TTF Gas

Urea (U.S, Gulf and Middle East)

Gasoil

Wheat *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

U.S. 5-year bond yield minus U.S. 5-year inflation breakeven rate

U.S. 10-year bond yield minus U.S. 10-year inflation breakeven rate

China A50 index

IDX Composite

HSCEI

Hang Seng

NIFTY

SENSEX

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

Australian 10 year minus Aussie 2-year yield spread *

Australian 10 year minus Aussie 5-year yield spread

U.S. 10-year minus Aussie 10-year yield spread

London and CME Cocoa *

Sugar #16 *

EUR/AUD *

JPY/AUD *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

EUR/CHF

NZD/AUD *

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields soared.

And with that, we see many new entries amongst the ‘extremes’.

Chilean 2 year yields have risen for 5 weeks,

While Japanese 10 year yield shave fallen for 5 weeks.

Every other previous streak has been broken.

Equities were smashed.

The list of extraordinary declines appear the bottom of this note.

Except for the TAIEX, all of last week’s overbought indices departed the list.

All of the winning streaks which appeared last week been snapped.

The only winning streak is Norway’s OBX sitting at 6 weeks.

Thailand’s SET, South Korea’s KOSPI and the Nikkei 225 gave up half of its gains garnered in the previous 3 or 4 weeks.

Germany’s DAX is at its lowest close in 5 months, last seen during the week ending November 17, 2025.

Spain’s IBEX closed at the same price seen during the week of December 8, 2025.

While several Asian indices are overbought.

Commodities were strong.

Coal, Oils, Distillates, Gases, Coffee, Urea and Oats were the notable gainers. 

Copper, Tin, Nickel and the precious metals were amongst the decliners.

JKM LNG mean reverted, upwards.

Wheat has advanced for 4 weeks.

Gold in ZAR and Soybeans have climbed for 5 weeks.

North American Hot Rolled Coil Steel is in a 7-week winning streak.

U.S. Gulf Urea prices have risen for 13 consecutive weeks.

Natural Gas rose and broke a 4-week losing streak.

Australian Coking Coal rose to end its 5 weeks of losses.

Gold in CAD and USD fell and snapped a 4-week winning streak.

The Copper/Gold Ratio has closed at its lowest level since February 1990 and it’s Monthly oversold reading is worth noting.

Currencies were busy.

While the Aussie fell, many of its pairs still appear amongst the extremes.

AUD/EUR in 11 week rising streak.

All of other AUD streaks came to an end, including the 8 week winning streaks for the AUD/GBP and AUD/IDR.

The USD and CAD rose.

The Euro and British Pound were firmer,

While the Yen fell.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Australian Coking Coal 2.8%, Richards Bay Coal 14.6%, Aluminium 9.8%, Rotterdam Coal 19.8%,  Bloomberg Commodity Index 8.1%, Brent Crude 27.2%, Cocoa 11.8%, WTI Crude 35.6%, Palm Oil 8%, Heating Oil 39.5%, JKM LNG 46.5%, Arabica Coffee 4.5%, LNG in Yen 84.4%, Newcastle Coal 15.9%, Natural Gas 11.4%, Gasoline 20.2%, Robusta Coffee 4.1%, Sugar 1.5%, S&P GSCI 14.7%, CRB Index 12.6%, Dutch TTF Gas 67%, U.S. Gulf Urea 24.5%, Gasoil 53.9%, Middle East Urea 33.8%, Gold in ZAR 2%, Corn 2.7%, Oats 6.7%, Rice 4.4%, Soybeans 2.6%, Wheat 4.3% and Israel’s TA-35 equity index rose 5.5%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

Baltic Dry Index (6.1%), Cotton (2.2%), Copper (4.2%), Lithium Hydroxide (3.9%), Tin (13.5%), Nickel (2.2%), Palladium (9.1%), Platinum (9.8%), Silver in USD (10%), Gold in CAD (2.6%), Gold in GBP (1.5%), Gold in USD (2%), All World Developed ex USA (6.9%), AEX (4.6%), ATX (5.2%), KBW Banks (3.6%), BUX (3.7%), CAC (6.8%), IDX (7.9%), DAX (6.7%), DJ Industrials (3%), DJ Transports (6.2%), EGX (3.5%), FCATC (5%), MIB (6.5%), HSCEI (2.6%), IBB (4.5%), HSI (3.3%), IBEX (7%), BOVESPA (5%), S&P Small Cap 600 (3.8%), Russell 2000 (4%), TAIEX (5.1%), KRE Regional Banks (2.8%), KSE (6.3%), KOSPI (10.6%), FTSE 250 (5.3%), S&P MidCap 400 (4.6%), Mexico (5.7%), NBI (4.2%), Nikkei 225 (5.5%), NIFTY (2.9%), Copenhagen (2.2%), Helsinki (3.3%), Stockholm (5.7%), PSE (4.4%), PX (2.2%), SA40 (9.7%), SENSEX (2.9%), SET (7.7%), SMI (6.6%), SOX (7.2%), IGPA (5%), S&P 500 (2%), STI (2.(%), Nasdaq Transport (7.8%), TSX (3.7%), FTSE (5.7%), Vietnam (6%), WIG (4.8%), Nasdaq Biotech (2.7%), ASX Financials (3.3%), ASX 200 (3.8%), ASX Materials (8.5%), ASX Industrials (3.2%), ASX Small Caps (4.5%), BIST (6.7%) and Dubai’s DFM fell 9%.

March 8, 2026

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au 

The warnings were always there

In light of recent concerns about private credit,

I’m reprising some snippy comments written 2 years ago.

The word ‘private’ comes with risk

Noise and Hype leads to losses

Sell AUD / Buy EUR

If you happen to hold (a lot of) Australian Dollars,

perhaps consider Selling your strong AUD and Buying Euro.

Whether we you are interested in buying some EUR denominated equities, or an Airbus H125 helicopter or settling the acquisition of that piece of French or Italian real estate.

I think that the fat part of the trade has been seen.

The AUD/EUR is exhibiting its 5th moment over the past 10 years of being empirically stretched.

My secondary indicators support the exhaustion of this recent advance.

March 4, 2026

rob@karriasset.com.au

Don’t go chasing high fastballs

In baseball, hitters tend to chase high fastballs, often because the ball looks larger due to its proximity to the batter’s eyes.

The higher spin and rising velocity makes it difficult to catch up to the ball.

Also, the high fastball is often a set-up’ pitch.

Here is a picture of a high fastball that I’m gonna call the South Korea KOSPI equity index.

Gravity is a bitch and parabola’s look sexy while simultaneously being fun and dangerous.

March 4, 2026

rob@karriasset.com.au

Intuit and its rare extremes

If you like a company and its stock price (not to be used in isolation of your other analysis) but here is an example and reminder of when to be steadfast when deciding whether you want to buy a stock such as Intuit INTU:US

March 2, 2026

rob@karriasset.com.au

Macro Extremes (week ending February 27, 2026)

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities. 

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

North American Hot Rolled Coil Steel

Oats *

Wheat *

PHP/USD *

CAC 40 equity index *

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

LME Aluminium *

Tin

Gold in AUD, CAD, CHF, EUR, GBP, USD and ZAR *

AUD/CAD *

AUD/EUR *

AUD/IDR *

AUD/INR *

AUD/JPY *

AUD/SGD *

AUD/USD *

CHF/JPY

CNH/USD *

MYR/USD *

RMB *

Shanghai Composite

All World Developed ex USA *

Austria’s ATX Index *

Hungary’s BUX Index *

Dow Jones Transports *

Egypt’s EGX Index *

Spain’s IBEX *

Brazil’s BOVESPA *

Mexico’s IPC Index *

Nasdaq Biotech Index

Norway’s OBX Index *

Helsinki’s OMX *

Stockholm’s OMX *

Switzerland’s SMI Index

Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) *

Singapore’s STI Index

Israel’s TA-35

Nasdaq Transports *

Canada’s TSX Index *

FTSE 100 *

Poland’s WIG Index *

S&P Biotech Index

And the ASX Materials Index *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

AUD/GBP *

Taiwan’s TAIEX *

South Korea’s KOSPI Index *

Nikkei 225 Index *

South Africa’s SA40 equity Index *

And Thailand SET Index *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

TBX

U.S. 3 year government bond yield

Copper/Gold Ratio

EUR/CHF

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

Australian 10 year minus Aussie 2 year yield spread *

British 2 year government bond yield

London and CME Cocoa *

Sugar #16 *

EUR/AUD

JPY/AUD

USD/MXN *

USD/ZAR

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

GBP/AUD

NZD/AUD *

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields fell.

The Australian 10 year minus 2 year spread, mean reverted.

While the same U.S. spread has fallen for 4 weeks.

The last of the Japanese yields fell from overbought territory.

Canadian and Kiwi 10 year yields have fallen for 4 weeks.

British 2’s along with European 5, 10 & 20 year yields have fallen for 5 weeks, as have Belgian, Danish and Dutch 10 year yields.

Equities were mixed.

Malaysia’s KLSE left overbought territory, while a few others moved into an overbought quinella.

The All World Developed-ex USA is working a streak of 14 weeks of higher consecutive closing prices.

CAC, DAX, Helsinki and TSX have risen for 4 straight weeks.

The OBX, SMI, FTSE 100 are in a 5 week winning streak.

While the ASX Financials fell and snapped its 4 week winning streak.

Thailand’s SET is in a 7 week winning streak and has risen 15% over the past 4 weeks.

The Nikkei 225 has returned 10% in the pats 4 weeks.

South Korea’s KOSPI has soared 21% in 3 weeks.

Brazil’s BOVESPA fell and broke a 7 week run.

The TA35 fell and ended 8 weeks of higher prices.

EGX & STI both fell and snapped their 9 weeks of advance.

The SOX snapped its 10 weeks of consecutive advance.

Commodities were active amongst a concentrated group.

Tin, Oils, Distillates, Platinum, Silver, Orange Juice and Corn were the notable gainers. 

Cocoa, Coffee, Cocoa, Lumber, Tin and Uranium were amongst the decliners.

Coal isn’t overbought, this week.

Cocoa mean reverted.

Natural Gas has fallen for 4 weeks.

Soybeans and Gold (across various currencies) have risen for 4 weeks.

U.S. HRC Steel is in a 6 week winning streak.

The Copper/Gold Ratio has closed at its lowest level since February 1990 and it’s Monthly oversold reading is worth noting.

Richards Bay Coal fell and snapped a 7 week winning streak.

And U.S. Gulf Urea prices have risen for 12 weeks.

Currencies were busy.

Nearly all Yen pairs have left the extremes.

AUD/CAD, AUD/USD and AUD/ZAR have risen for 5 weeks.

AUD/SGD has closed higher for the 6^th consecutive week.

AUD/GBP and AUD/IDR has climbed for 7 weeks.

AUD/EUR in 9 week rising streak.

CAD/GBP has risen for 4 weeks.

GBP/AUD is an oversold quinella and competed a mean reversion.

While the AUD/JPY fell and snapped its 5 week winning run.

BRL/USD fell 0.1% which was enough to break its 6 week advance.

CHF/AUD rose to break is 7 weeks of decline.

And the Filipino Peso has climbed for 4 weeks against the USD.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Bloomberg Commodity Index 1.7%, Brent Crude 1.8%, Baltic Dry Index 4.8%, Lean Hogs 2.2%, Copper 2.7%, Heating Oil 4.8%, U.S. HRC Steel 2.3%, Tin 24.1%, Nickel 2.8%, Orange Juice 6.8%, Platinum 9.1%, Gasoil 2.7%, Silver in AUD 10.3%, Silver in USD 10.8%, Gold in AUD 2.9%, Gold in CAD 3.1%, Gold in CHF 2.4%, Gold in EUR 3%, Gold in GBP 3.3%, Gold in USD 3.3%, Corn 2.5%, Rice 2.2%, Soybeans 1.5%, Wheat 1.9%, Shanghai Composite 2%, All World Developed (ex USA) 1.8%, MIB 1.6%, TAIEX 5.4%, KOSPI 7.5%, Nikkei 225 3.6%, PSE 2.3%, SA40 4.8%, SET 3.7%, TSX 1.5%, FTSE 100 2.1%, Vietnam 3.1%, XBI 2.1%, XMJ 7.4% and the ASX Small Caps rose 1.8%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

Australian Coking Coal (1.8%), Rotterdam Coal (1.7%), LME Cocoa (10.4%), CBOT Cocoa (19.1%), Arabica Coffee (1.7%), Lumber (3.5%), Cattle (4%), Newcastle Coal (1.7%), Natural Gas (3.5%), Uranium (3.5%), Oats (1.5%), KBW Banks (5.9%), China A50 (2%), EGX (2.9%), S&P Small Cap 600 (1.5%), KLSE (2.1%), KRE Regional Banks (7.1%), KSE (3%), Nifty (1.5%), OMX Copenhagen (4.7%), Sensex (1.8%), SOX (2%) and Israel’s TA-35 fell 2.5%.

March 1, 2026

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au 

If your fund manager didn’t see the risk – fire them !

I listened to an interview with a fund manager whose portfolio contains a large portion of major software stocks say, “they didn’t foresee such a decline in these large software names”.

Are you kidding me !

I saw it and most of the rest of did too.

I’ll keep it simple.
The circles in the attached studies are saying, “you have no business buying this stock, if you are a medium to longer term investor”.

The subsequent reminder is that gravity is real as is mean reversion.

p.s. medium term is longer than 1 month…..

February 25, 2026
rob@karriasset.com.au