Macro Extremes (week ending June 12, 2026)
June 14, 2026 Leave a comment
A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.
The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.
n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.
* denotes multiple week inclusion
Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
U.S 3-month bill yield
U.S. 5-year bond yield minus U.S. 5-year breakeven inflation rate
COP/USD
AEX
Overbought (RSI > 70)
Japanese, Russian & Korean 10-year government bond yields *
JKM LNG
Rubber *
AUD/IDR *
CNH/USD
Austria’s ATX Index
Dow Jones Transports
Italy’s MIB
S&P Small Cap 600
TAIEX *
South Korea’s KOSPI *
Nikkei 225 *
Thailand’s SET Index *
SOX *
And Poland’s WIG Index
The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)
Copper/Gold Ratio
Indonesian 10-year bond yield
USD/IDR *
Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
Platinum
Gold priced in CAD, CHF, EUR, GBP, USD and ZAR
Corn *
MYR/USD
Hang Seng Index
Oversold (RSI < 30)
U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 5-year govn’t bond yield spread *
U.S. 10 year minus U.S. inflation rate
North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel *
The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)
IDR/USD
Lean Hogs
Notes & Ideas:
Government bond yields fell,
As did U.S. corporate bond yields
Chilean 2-year bond yield has declined for 5 weeks.
The U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 10-year inflation breakeven spread is nearing overbought territory.
The U.S. 5 year and 10-year inflation breakeven rates have fall for 4 weeks.
The latter finally mean reverted.
The U.S year minus U.S. inflation rate mean reverted last week.
Inversely, the U.S. 2 year rose to complete its mean reversion.
Japanese 30-year yields have sunk for 4 weeks.
Brazilian 10‘s are no longer overbought.
And Chinese 10-year yield rose and broke 4 weeks of decline.
Equities were mostly higher.
Shanghai Composite and Indonesia’s IDX rose to snap 4 weeks of losses.
Vietnan’s VN Index is in a 4-week losing streak.
The Hang Seng have fallen for 5 weeks.
The KBW Banks Index, CAC, KRE Regional Banks, Nasdaq Transports and Dow Jones transports have climbed for 4 weeks.
The Dow Jones Transports has climbed 11.6% in 4 weeks.
Thailand’s SET is in a 7-week winning streak.
While Brazil’s BOVESPA rose and broke its 8-week losing streak.
Commodities had a bias for weakness, again.
Copper, Coffee, Lumber and Lithium were the notable gainers.
Coal, Oil, Gases, Distillates, Nickel, Gold and Urea were amongst the decliners.
Bloomberg Commodity Index, S&P GSCI, CRB Index and Lean Hogs have fallen for 4 weeks.
Cotton, Platinum and Gold price in ZAR have declined for 5 weeks.
Aluminium, Rotterdam Coal and Cotton are in 4-week winning streaks.
Australian Coking Coal fell and snapped a 7-week winning streak and is no longer overbought.
Iron Ore prices eked out a gain to break 5 weeks of weakness.
Lean Hogs have fallen for 5 of the past 6 weeks.
North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel has declined for 7 straight weeks.
And U.S. Gulf Urea prices are in an 8-week losing streak.
Currencies were quiet, again.
The Aussie was mixed to lower.
The Loonie was weaker.
COP/USD has risen for 4 weeks.
Euro and British Pound rose.
Yen was mixed, while the JPY/USD rose to break 4 weeks of losses.
And the USD was mostly stronger.
The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;
Copper, 2.6%, Arabica Coffee 4.4%, Lumber 2.6%, Lithium Carbonate 2.5%, Orange Juice 2.5%, Palladium 2.2%, Robusta Coffee 8.4%, Sugar #16 4.3%, AEX 2.9%, ATX 2.9%, BKX 3.4%, CAC 1.6%, China A50 1.8%, IDX 7.4%, DFM 3.2%, DJ Transports 3.1%, MIB 3.2%, IBEX 2.3%, S&P Small Cap 600 4.4%, Dublin 2.9%, Russell 2000 4%, KRE 4.6%, S&P Midcap 400 2.8%, Mexico 2.7%, NBI 1.7%, Nasdaq 100 2.3%, Portugal 1.8%, Sensex 1.7%, SMI 2.4%, SOX 9.4%, IGPA 5.7%, Euro Stoxx 50 2.1%, TA-35 1.8%, Nasdaq Transports 3.3%, TSX 1.5%, WIG 3%, XBI 4%, ASX 200 2.1%, ASX Industrials and Türkiye’s BIST rose 1.8%.
The group of largest decliners for the week included;
Australian Coking Coal (3%), Richards Bay Coal (2.6%), Aluminium (2.4%), Rotterdam Coal (2.2%), Bloomberg Commodity Index (2.4%), Brent Crude (6.2%), Baltic Dry Index (5.5%), WTI Crude (6.3%), Palm Oil (1.7%), Heating Oil (5.4%), Tin (5.4%), Newcastle Coal (1.7%), Natural Gas (3.4%), Nickel (4.2%), Platinum (4.8%), Sugar (3.1%), S&P GSCI (3.8%), CRB Index (2%), Dutch TTF Gas (3.6%), Urea U.S. Gulf (5.1%), Gasoil (8.4%), Urea Middle East (8.5%), Gold in AUD (2.5%), Gold in CAD (2.2%), Gold in CHF (2.4%), Gold in EUR (2.9%), Gold in GBP (3%), Gold in USD (2.5%), Gold in ZAR (4.2%), Oats (2.1%), Rice (2.9%), EGX (3.5%), FCATC (2.4%), TAIEX (2%), Helsinki (2.1%) and Vietnam’s VN Index fell 2.6%.
June 14, 2026
By Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
rob zdravevski's blog 