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Macro Extremes (week ending April 3, 2026)

April 5, 2026 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

10-year Chilean government bond yields.

30-year Japanese government bond yields.

Palm Oil

Overbought (RSI > 70)

2-year Australian, Chilean, German, Italian and Japanese government bond yields

5 & 10-year Japanese bond yields

Australian Coking Coal

Bloomberg Commodity Index *

Brent Crude Oil *

WTI Crude Oil *

Heating Oil *

U.S. Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel

JKM LNG in USD *

LME Aluminium

Gasoline *

S&P GSCI Index *

CRB Index *

Urea (U.S, Gulf and Middle East) *

CNH/USD

BOVESPA

AUD/INR *

OBX *

S&P Biotech’s

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

10-year Indian government bond yields

Gasoil *

Rubber

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

PHP/USD *

KRW/USD *

HSCEI *

Hang Seng *

Oversold (RSI < 30)

Australian 10-year minus Aussie 2-year bond yield spread *

Cocoa *

NZD/AUD *

SENSEX *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

NIFTY *

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields fell,

This week’s list has much less entrants than lasts.

Most issues saw their 4 weeks of consecutive higher yields snapped, with the exception of Indian 10’s and Japanese 10’s.

The latter’s yield is in a 5 week rising streak.

And the U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 5 year bond yield spread is approaching oversold.

Equities bounced.

Nearly every losing streak appearing in last week’s edition was snapped.

The exceptions include, China’s FCTAC has declined for 7 weeks, the NIFTY, SENSEX and ASX Financials have fallen for 6 weeks and the Nikkei 225 has declined for 5 weeks.

India’s SENSEX is at its lowest close since early April 2025 and completed a notable mean reversion.

The FTSE Saudi and Tadawul indices have risen for 5 weeks.

Inversely, Norway’s OBX has risen for 10 weeks.

Commodities were mixed with a positive bias.

Oils, Distillates, Aluminium, Rubber, Precious Metals, Tin and Orange Juice were the notable gainers.

Coal, Gases, Steel, Coffee and Sugar were amongst the decliners.

Many coal contracts left overbought territory.

Australian Coking Coal and Cotton have risen for 4 weeks.

WTI Crude, CRB Index, Gasoil and Middle Eastern Urea have closed higher for 7 weeks straight.

Lean Hogs have declined for 4 straight weeks.

Sugar #16 fell and broke a 7-week winning streak.

Palladium and Platinum rose and snapped their 4 weeks of decline.

Rubber is overbought.

And U,S. Gulf Urea prices have risen for 17 consecutive weeks.

Currencies were quiet.

The Aussie rose except against the INR and ZAR.

The CAD fell and versus the USD, it sees a 4-week losing streak.

The British Pound was weaker.

COP/USD has risen for 4 weeks, as has the EUR/CHF.

The Yen was slightly firmer.

The Euro was mixed and muted.

The Thai Baht rose and snapped a 4 week losing streak against the USD.

The USD fell against the Indian Rupee to end 6 weeks of gains.

Inversely, the USD/ZAR fell to break its 4-week winning streak.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Aluminium 6.6%, Brent Crude Oil 3.5%, Baltic Dry Index 1.7%, Cocoa 2.5%, WTI Crude Oil 4.1%, Cotton 2.1%, Palm Oil 3.9%, Copper 1.6%, Heating Oil 3%, Cattle 3.1%, Tin 7.4%, Orange Juice 12.9%, Palladium 7.2%, Platinum 5.1%, Gasoline 3%, S&P GSCI 4.4%, Rubber 4.7%, CRB Index 3.3%, Gasoil 7.9%, Silver in AUD 4.1%, Silver in USD 4.7%, Gold in AUD 3.5%, Gold in CAD 4.3%, Gold in CHF 4.1%, Gold in Euro 3.8%, Gold in GBP 4.4%, Gold in USD 4.1%, All World Developed ex USA 2.3%, AEX 1.8%, ATX 3.5%, KBW Banks 5.2%, BUX 1.9%, CAC 3.4%, DAX 3.9%, DJ Industrials 3%, DJ Transports 5%, MIB 5.2%, IBB 5.6%, IBEX 4.5%, BOVESPA 3.6%, S&P Small Cap 600 3%, Russell 2000 3.4%, Nasdaq Composite 4.4%, KRE Regional Banks 4.2%, KSE 2.5%, FTSE 250 3.2%, S&P MidCap 400 3.1%, Mexico 4.5%, Nasdaq Biotechs 4%, OBX 3.6%, Copenhagen 4.4%, Helsinki 3.8%, Stockholm 3.6%, PX 2.1%, SA40 4.2%, SMI 3.3%, SOX 5%, IGPA 2.9%, S&P 500 3.4%, Nasdaq Transports 4.1%, TSX 3.6%, FTSE 100 4.7%, Vietnam 1.7%, WIG 4.9%, S&P Biotechs 7.8%, ASX Materials 3.4%, FTSE Saudi 1.6%, PSI 5.3% and Eurostoxx 50 rose 3.4%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included;

Richards Bay Coal (3.5%), Rotterdam Coal (7.9%), North European Hot Rolled Steel (2.2%), JKM LNG (2.1%), Arabica Coffee (2.1%), JKM LNG in Yen (13.3%), Newcastle Coal (6%), Natural Gas (7.4%), Robusta Coffee (4%), Sugar (4.8%), Dutch TTF Gas (8.8%), Corn (2.1%), FCATC (2.1%), TAIEX (1.6%) and the KOSPI fell 3.8%.

April 5, 2026

By Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment

Keep an eye on the MOVE Index

April 4, 2026 Leave a comment

When the volatility in U.S. bonds options is overbought, a large decline results in a hoick higher in stock prices.

Filed under Finance & Investment

Updating the rare bearish cluster

April 3, 2026 Leave a comment

While U.S. equity indices rose for the week and many snapped their 4 week losing streaks………

the AAII sentiment survey posted its 4th consecutive week where the bearish results from respondents were above 45%.

Since 1990, this is the 13th cluster of such an occurrence.
See the attached list below.

April 3, 2026
rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment

India is cheap

March 31, 2026 Leave a comment

My recent weekend Macro Extremes note cited weakness in Indian equities, bonds and its currency.

The study below emphasises the Monthly pricing of the Singapore Dollar against the Indian Rupee.

Those money changers in Raffles Place best stock up on some INR.

March 31, 2026
rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment

Stay the course – March 2026 newsletter

March 30, 2026 Leave a comment

It may seem obvious but we are near exhaustion in the streaks seen across a host of capital markets.

The following data and observances assists in quantifying this view.

A selection of equity indices are entering their 4^th and 5^th week of consecutive declines.
Streaks seldom extend to the 6^th week.

An extract from my recent weekend’s edition of Macro Extremes, highlights;

https://robzdravevski.com/2026/03/29/macro-extremes-week-ending-march-27-2026/

“The Shanghai Composite, All World Developed ex USA, DAX, Hang Seng, IBB biotech, Indonesia’s IDX, FTSE 250, Nasdaq Biotech (NBI), OMX Stockholm, Philippines PSE and S&P Biotech (XBI) are in 4 week losing streaks.

The Dow Jones Industrials, Nasdaq Composite, Nasdaq 100, NIFTY, SENSEX, S&P 500 and ASX Financials have fallen for 5 weeks.”

And the following indices rose last week and snapped their 4 week losing streaks; Austria’s ATX, Russell 2000, S&P Small Cap 600, KRE Regional Banks, S&P MidCap 400, Copenhagen, S&P 600 and Nasdaq Transports.

For the bond market;
4 weeks of higher yields are seen in Australian, Belgian, Canadian, German, Danish, Spanish, Finnish, French, Greek, Japanese, Dutch, Kiwi, Polish, Portuguese, Swedish and American 10 year bonds.”

Amongst commodities;
“WTI Crude, CRB Index, Gasoil and Middle Eastern Urea have closed higher for 6 weeks straight.
Gasoline, Brent Crude, Heating Oil, JKM LNG snapped their 5-week streak of higher prices.”

Lastly, in the long running AAII Investor Sentiment Survey;

the latest series of weekly results sees the bearish column exceeding a reading of 46% for the past 3 weeks.

https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey

Over the past 36 years (since 1990), we have seen such qualifying clusters of bearishness on 24 occasions.
That equates to such an event accounting for 4% of the time.

16 of the 24 occurrences were contained to a period of 3 or 4 weeks only.

These and other Clusters also occurred around major equity stress, such as;

1990 recession / Gulf War
2002 post-dotcom washout
2008 GFC (multiple clusters)
2009 final lows
2020 COVID shock
2022 bear market
2025–2026 (current regime stress)

These are not random occurrences as they align with systemic drawdowns or late-stage capitulation capturing;

forced selling
sentiment entrenchment
positioning exhaustion

In summary, these periods cluster around major equity lows or accumulation zones.

As written in past newsletters,

“I don’t see any structural problems in the global equity market”.

In the next newsletter, I’ll share some views about themes and sectors that I find interesting.

You can subscribe to my newsletter by click the button on the latest newsletter

https://mailchi.mp/karriasset/stay-on-course-1

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with Bitcoin, business, finance, Investing, stocks

Macro Extremes (week ending March 27, 2026)

March 29, 2026 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

10-year Austria, Belgian, Chilean, German, Danish, Spanish, Finnish, French, British, Norwegian, Kiwi and U.S. government bond yields.

2, 3, 5, 7 and 20-year U.S. government bond yields.

British 30-year bond yields

U.S. 5–7-year Investment Grade and High Yield yields

U.S. 10-year bond yield minus U.S. 10 year inflation breakeven rate

Cotton *

Sugar *

Oats *

Overbought (RSI > 70)

2-year British and Japanese government bond yields.

Aussie and British 3-year government bond yields.

Australian and Japanese 5-year bond yields.

5 & 10-year Japanese bond yields.

Richards Bay Coal *

Rotterdam Coal *

Bloomberg Commodity Index *

Brent Crude Oil *

WTI Crude Oil *

JKM LNG in USD

Newcastle Coal *

S&P GSCI Index *

CRB Index *

Urea (U.S, Gulf and Middle East) *

AUD/INR *

OBX *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

Australian, Chilean, German and Italian 2-year government bond yields.

5 year Australian and German bond yields

10-year Greek, Indonesian, Italian, Korean, Polish, Portuguese & Turkish government bond yields.

Heating Oil *

JKM LNG in Yen *

Gasoline *

Gasoil *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

IEF

IEI *

SHY *

U.S. 10-year minus U.S. 2-year bond yield spread *

U.S. 10-year minus 5-year bond yield spread

U.S. 30-year minus U.S. 10-year bond yield spread *

Lumber

PHP/USD

CSI 300

CAC Index *

DAX Index *

MIB

HSCEI

Hang Seng

Nasdaq Composite *

Nasdaq 100

SMI

S&P 500

ASX Industrials *

ASX Small Caps

Oversold (RSI < 30)

Australian 10-year minus Aussie 2-year bond yield spread

Cocoa

NZD/AUD *

HKD/USD *

KRW/USD *

IDX Composite *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

INR/USD *

NIFTY *

SENSEX *

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields rose, again.

A few more 10-year government bond yields joined the overbought list.

4 weeks of higher yields are seen in Australian, Belgian, Canadian, German, Danish, Spanish, Finnish, French, Greek, Japanese, Dutch, Kiwi, Polish, Portuguese, Swedish and American 10 year bonds.

Chilean 10-year yields have climbed for 5 weeks.

The following also have 4 week streaks of higher yields; Aussie, German, Italian and U.S. 2’s, the U.S. 3 year, German and American 5 years along with U.S & British 30 years.

U.S. 5 and 10 years minus inflation spread yields have also increased for 4 weeks.

Meanwhile, British 3 and 5 year bond yields fell and snapped their 4 week rise.

And Chilean 2-year yields have risen for 8 consecutive weeks.

Equities were mainly lower, in a tale of some streaks being extended while others were broken.

Taiwan’s TAEIX, South Korea’s KOSPI and Israel’s TA 35 Index were the last to leave overbought land.

The Shanghai Composite, All World Developed ex USA, DAX, Hang Seng, IBB, Indonesia’s IDX, FTSE 250, NBI, Stockholm, PSE and XBI are in 4 week losing streaks.

The DJ Industrials, Nasdaq Composite, Nasdaq 100, NIFTY, SENSEX, S&P 500 and ASX Financials have fallen for 5 weeks.

China’s FCTAC has declined for 6 weeks.

Austria’s ATX, Russell 2000, S&P Small Cap 600, KRE Regional Banks, S&P MidCap 400, Copenhagen, S&P 600 and Nasdaq Transports rose to snap their 4 straight weeks of decline.

China’s FCATC has fallen for 5 weeks.

Pakistan’s KSE has declined for 9 weeks.

Inversely, Norway’s OBX has risen for 9 weeks.

And India’s NIFTY is at its lowest close since early April 2025.

Commodities were mixed.

Intra-week saw large swings but the changes in week to week close where muted and subdued.

Oils, Distillates, Aluminium, Cotton, Silver & Tin were the notable gainers.

Gases, Coffee, Cocoa, Palladium, Platinum & Oats were amongst the decliners.

Oats, Palm Oil and Dutch TTF Gas left overbought territory.

WTI Crude, CRB Index, Gasoil and Middle Eastern Urea have closed higher for 6 weeks straight.

Gasoline, Brent Crude, Heating Oil, JKM LNG snapped their 5-week streak of higher prices.

Sugar #16 is in a 7-week winning streak.

Palladium and Platinum have declined for 4 weeks, falling 27% and 23% respectively, over that time.

And U.S. Gulf Urea prices have risen for 16 consecutive weeks.

Currencies were quieter.

The Aussie fell.

All of the Aussie pairs except against the Kiwi and Rupee exited

AUD/THB fell and snapped a 5-week rising streak.

CAD was lower.

Euro rose.

The USD was mainly higher,

CLP/USD rose slightly to snap its 5-week losing streak.

And the USD/ZAR is in a 4-week winning streak.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Aluminium 2%, WTI Crude Oil 1.4%, Cotton 3.2%, Heating Oil 10.7%, Cattle 2.3%, Tin 5.9%, LME Aluminium 3.3%, Orange Juice 9.3%, Urea U.S. Gulf 1.9%, Gasoil 1.9%, Silver in AUD 4.9%, Silver in USD 2.7%, Gold in AUD 2.1%, Wheat 1.6%, DJ Transports 1.8%, BOVESPA 3%, Mexico 4%, SA40 1.8%, SMI 2%, S&P 600 1.1%, Nasdaq Transports 1.8%, TSX 2.1%, Vietnam 1.5% and ASX Materials rose 4.6%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included;

Cocoa (2.8%), JKM LNG (6%), Arabica Coffee (2.6%), Lumber (2.1%), Palladium (2.7%), Platinum (5.1%), Gasoline (1.3%), Robusta Coffee (1.9%), Dutch TTF Gas (8.4%), Oats (4.6%), CSI 300 (1.4%), FCATC (2.9%), Nasdaq Composite (3.2%), KOSPI (5.9%), FTSE 250 (1.8%), Nasdaq 100 (3.2%), SOX (2.8%), S&P 500 (2.1%), TA35 (5%) and BIST fell 2.7%.

March 29, 2026

By Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au