rob zdravevski's blog

A rare move in the Indonesian stock market

My work suggest that Indonesia’s IDX Composite is trading at an extreme which has been seen 3 other times in the past 20 years.

October 16, 2026

rob@karriasset.com.au

EUR/USD update

EUR/USD will feature in this week’s edition of Macro Extremes.

This currency pair is doing something not seen for 18 months and my probability suggests its a reasonable time to sell some USD and Buy Euro’s around the 1.110-1.125 area.

It should take a breather soon from this recent weakness and see a little bounce up the 1.1460 area.

While I see that as a temporary move within a larger downward leg towards parity.

October 16, 2026

rob@karriasset.com.au

Embrace the pessimism

As Australians read about, feel or believe in the low morale and confidence in business and the economy, while also piling on the lack of productivity narrative (and it may all be true),

such an ebb makes for interesting buying of Australian equities.

The adage of buying when others are fearful comes to mind,

because it hasn’t happened all that often over the past 40 years.

It’s the hubris that is more worrying.

October 15, 2026

My view on the Australian unemployment rate stands

As per last month’s note, avoid the noise and the headlines,

A look at the Australian unemployment rate

and I’ll re-iterate, “The Aussie unemployment rate should peak (within this wave) between 4.7% – 5.2%”……..before I expect a minor easing in that number.

And with that brings other opportunities in the equity market.

October 15, 2026

People prefer to make it back where they lost it

“After you buy something you paid for, it doesn’t matter. People cling to the idea that at least they should get their money back; maybe there is bad news, and you should sell before it goes lower; maybe put it into something else where you get your money back, but people prefer to make it back where they lost it. People anchor numbers in their heads, and they hold on to them.”

– extract from recent Seth Klarman interview

originally posted in July 2022

People prefer to make it back where they lost it

An empirical view on Australian inflation

Nearly 2 months ago, I quipped whether the stated rate of Australian inflation is true.

My cynicism about that remains.

Aussie inflation is not at dangerous levels

In the meantime, while Australian inflation has risen since that August 27th note and today’s synopsis is the same as that headline.

Australia’s inflation rate is not at a dangerous level, yet!

However, the most recent turn higher in the inflation rate commenced in September 2025 and the ‘shapes’ I am seeing today, are early analogues last recorded in 1969.

But, there is silver lining for equity investors when inflation rates are at extremes.

October 14, 2026

rob@karriasset.com.au

Silver’s decline isn’t done

It’s quiet on the Silver front, because the price of Silver has halved over recent times.

That’s a fact.

A question that readers should ask is, who paid $120 for an ounce of Silver in January 2026?

That wasn’t too long after seeing reports of folks lining up outside bullion and government mint outlets, waiting to buy Gold and Silver.

Avid readers of my work will be able to recite my reminders about how parabolas honour mean reversion much more, than other price moves.

Then, in mid August 2026, I suggested that Silver will ‘pop’ to the $69 region but it’s still not cheap enough.

Silver – still not cheap enough

From then, it did bounce (to US$71) and since late August, Silver is back to US$59.

Today, I think it is about to embark on a new lower leg of downward travel.

Clients will be recipients of my ultimate entry price suggestions.

October 14, 2026

rob@karriasset.com.au

Operational Leverage in Copper

This 10 year study between the price of Copper and the stock price of Freeport McMoran (FCX:US) shows an impressive correlation.

More so, it has spent 80% of the time at a level which I would call strongly correlated.

Additionally, over that 10 year period, the price of Copper has doubled while FCX’s stock price has been a 7 bagger.

That’s what I call, operational leverage.

October 14, 2026

rob@karriasset.com.au

Taking a look at Mexico’s IPC Index

I am interested in the price action of the Mexican stock market.

When I have mentioned this amongst investing peers, the anecdotal response has ranged from negative to dismissive.

While the antithesis doesn’t render my initial interest is correct, it does make me more attentive.

Oh, and the Mexican Peso is oversold versus the USD.

Incidentally, Mexico’s GDP is globally ranked in a tie for 12th alongside Australia.

October 13, 2026

rob@karriasset.com.au