rob zdravevski's blog

Does luxury stage a comeback?

Not many investors seem interested in luxury.

October 29, 2026

The AI bullshit is getting deep

So far, my observation of AI is;

it’s good at gathering knowledge, summarising documents or producing presentations.

All of this masked under the descriptor of productivity and efficiency.

The rest of it, is good for cheaters and deceivers.

There is so much bullshit going on that I need to wear shorts because the cuffs of my trousers are getting dirty.

A Brazilian reasons to have sold

Today, the election result in Brazil is the news and the narrative.

Keep in mind, ‘narrative’ is this dreaded word which people use, in order to tell or justify a story.

Although 2 weeks prior (in my October 11th, 2026 weekend edition of Macro Extremes), my work was telling readers that the ‘fat part’ of the trade in the Bovespa had been seen and it implies that one had no business initiating any long positions.

Macro Extremes (week ending October 9, 2026)

The Brazilian stock market is expected to open 20% lower in today’s trading session.

October 26, 2026

rob@karriasset.com.au

Macro Extremes # 283 (week ending October 23, 2026)

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets, on a weekly timeframe, either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below their rolling mean.

NB: Pricing of commodity futures contracts considers only the immediate front-month contract.

* denotes multiple-week inclusion.

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Extremes Above the Mean (At least 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

U.S. BB High Yield *

U.S. 5-year breakeven inflation rate

AUD/EUR

BRL/USD

CAD/EUR *

Mexican IPC equity index

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Overbought (RSI > 70)

U.S. High Yield Bond Index *

Belgian, French, Indian and Italian 10-Year Government Bond Yields *

Italian and Japanese 2-year Bond Yields *

British 2- and 3-year Bond Yields *

U.S. 30-Year Mortgage Rate *
Rotterdam Coal *

Brent and WTI Crude Oil

Heating Oil

North American Hot Roled Coil Steel

LNG JKM in Yen *

Sugar # 16

Dutch TTF Gas *

Gasoil

Rice *

Heating Oil crack spread *

Japanese Naphtha *

CNH/USD *

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The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and >2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

GBP/EUR
USD/MXN *

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Extremes Below the Mean (At least 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

Chinese 10-year bond yield

Silver in AUD

EUR/AUD

EUR/CAD *

USD/BRL

Shanghai Composite Index *

Italy’s MIB Index *

ASX Small Cap Index *

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Oversold (RSI < 30)

Lean Hogs *

Lumber
China CFR Iron Ore *

PHP/USD

USD/CNH

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The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and >2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

Palladium *

Lithium Hydroxide

EUR/GBP

MXN/USD *

CSI 300 Index *

China A50 Index

Saudi Arabia Tadawul Index *

Türkiye’s BIST Index *

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Notes & Ideas

Government Bond Yields Mostly Fell

The U.S. high yield index completed an upward mean reversion.

France’s 10-year bond yield has spent 7 weeks being overbought.

Japanese and American 2-year yields along with Dutch 10’s have fallen for 4 weeks.

As have the U.S. 5- and 10-year real interest rate spreads.

And Indian 10-year yields have risen for 10 weeks.

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Equities Were Broadly Weaker

The All World Developed ex USA and KOSPI are in a 4-week losing streak.

Shanghai Composite, FCATC Index, KSE and ASX Small Caps have closed lower for the past 5 weeks.

Türkiye’s BIST Index has fallen for 6 weeks.

Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul and the ASX Materials have sunken for 8 weeks straight.

The CSI 300, China A50 are in 11-week losing streaks. The latter completed a reversion to the mean.

Inversely, the ASX Industrials has risen for 4 weeks.

The KBW Banks Index and the Russell 2000 rose and snapped their respective 6-week losing streaks.

While the Vietnam & XBI rose and broke a 4-week losing streak.

The AEX fell and ended its 4-week winning run.

The ASX Financials have advanced 7% over the past 2 weeks.

And following 13 weeks, Poland’s WIG Index departed overbought territory.

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Commodity Prices Were Mixed

Oil, LNG, Shipping Rates and Nickel were the notable gainers.

Natural Gas, Precious Metals, Grains, Lumber and Lithium were amongst the largest decliners.

There was a slight rotation of several commodity names from last week.

Heating Oil and Dutch TTF Gas have put together 4 weeks of higher prices.

Rotterdam Coal, Brent Crude and Newcastle Coal have risen for 5 weeks.

Sugar fell and snapped its 4-week winning run.

Corn has sunken for 4 weeks.

Platinum has fallen for consecutive 5 weeks.

Palladium and Wheat have fallen for 8 weeks.

Silver has fallen for 4 of the past 5 weeks.

And the Gasoline crack spread is 28% lower over the past 3 weeks.

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Currencies Were Active

The Aussie and the Loonie were higher.

The USD and Swissie were weaker, while the Yen was mixed.

CAD/EUR, COP/USD, GBP/EUR and USD/PHP are in 4-week winning streaks.

USD/KRW has fallen for 5 weeks.

EUR/CHF is in a 6-week losing streak,

And the Mexican Peso has fallen for 7 weeks.

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The Week’s Larger Advancers

The larger advancers over the past week comprised Aluminium 1.4%, Brent Crude 5.9%, Baltic Dry Index 5.9%, WTI Crude 4.3%, Heating Oil 1.4%, JKM LNG 5%, Nickel 1.3%, Dutch TTF Gas 7.2%, Rice 1.2%, Gasoil crack spread 2.2%, IDX 4.9%, IBB 2.9%, S&P Small Cap 600 1.7%, Russell 2000 2%, KRE 3.8%, NBI 2.5%, Vietnam 4%, XBI 3.6%, ASX Financials 4% and ASX Industrials rose 2.7%.

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The Week’s Larger Decliners

The group of largest decliners for the week included Lean Hogs (2%), Lumber (2.6%), Lithium Hydroxide (4.1%), Natural Gas (15.3%), Orange Juice (3%), Palladium (6%), Platinum (4.3%), Robusta Coffee (5.5%), Sugar (2.9%), Silver (6%), Gold (4%), Corn (3.9%), Oats (6.5%), Wheat (5.4%), Gasoline crack (9.1%), ATX (4.4%), BUX (2.4%), CAC (2.2%), China A50 (2.2%), DAX (1.7%), DFM (2.3%), EGX (2.3%), FCATC (2.6%), Tadawul (4%), MIN (2.6%), HSCEI (4.6%), Hang Seng (4.5%), IBEX (1.7%), Dublin (1.8%), TAIEX (2.3%), KSE (2.4%), Kospi (2.1%), NKY (4%), Nifty (2.4%), Helsinki (3.3%), Stockholm (3.7%), PSI (2.4%), PX (2.8%), SA40 (3.1%), Sensex (2.2%), SOX (3.2%), IGPA (2%), Eurostoxx 50 (2.2%), TA35 (2.4%), FTSE 100 (1.8%), WIG (1.8%), BIXT (5.2%), XSO (3.9%) and the ASX Materials sunk 7.7%.

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October 25, 2026
By Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au

Taking your bat and ball home

Here is a picture of the Booking.Com stock price.

There was a time when it was trading at an extreme and arguably, the ‘fat part’ of the trade had been seen..

Getting the ‘fat part’ of the trade (which can last a few years) means that you miss the start of the party (6pm?) and you are happy leaving at 11pm or Midnight.

The notations on this price chart are supported by my empirical analysis which firstly, tells investors (or speculators) to not show up at a party in the latter hours.

Probability isn’t your friend.

And secondly, existing shareholders should consider having one foot out of the door or in fact, consider leaving.

Much like an earlier post about Australia’s Commonwealth Bank shares, at such moment, you can take your money and go elsewhere, sometimes for up to 3 years, before considering to come back…..should you wish.

This is also how prices digest and consolidate.

October 22, 2026

rob@karriasset.com.au

Interest Rates logically trade around the mean

In the 1980’s, if you were borrowing money at 17%, it’s because bonds were yielding 15%.

Today, when bonds are yielding 5%, you’re probably paying 7% for that money.

When you consider that the average long-term interest rate for British Gilts over 300 years is approximately 4.5%, it sounds fair that the long-term cost of money should be around 6%.

Thus, according to a 300 year view, interest rates of 2% or 12% should be considered rare or at least, an extreme.

Currently, I can understand if borrowers are crying foul that borrowing rates are 7%.

Firstly, they’re likely to be anchored to the 2% rate they saw in the early 2020’s and then extrapolated it forever.

Secondly, they are probably still heavily indebted.

And that can create stress when the magnitude of the borrowing interest rate itself has increased more than 3-fold.

Prior to the 2020’s, at no stage have Australian bond yields risen by more than 2-fold.

The move over the past 5 years has been 7-fold.

October 21, 2026

rob@karriasset.com.au

Copper and the proxies

Last week, I showed a study overlaying the price of Copper against the stock price of Freeport McMoran.

https://robzdravevski.com/2026/10/14/operational-leverage-in-copper/

My current read on the price of Copper is for it to trade lower.

That should translate into the stock price of Freeport McMoran declining from its current level of $68.87 to around $43.50.

And I’d expect commensurate price action in other copper equity proxies.

October 21, 2026

Allow some variation within the larger picture

Sometimes an asset’s price goes through digestion or consolidation.

Sometimes investors (if they like the asset or business) need to twiddle their thumbs.

For 5 years between 2014 and 2019, Tesla’s stock price tripled, then halved, then doubled, then halved again.

I’m sure that during this period may investors (or speculators) had their fair share of the heebie-jeebie’s.

Today, TSLA is trading at $368.

October 20, 2026