A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.
The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.
n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.
* denotes multiple week inclusion
Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
JPY/AUD
JPY/CAD
JPY/EUR
JPY/USD
JPY/CHF
EUR/CHF *
Sugar
Czechia’s PX Index *
And the ASX 200 Index *
Overbought (RSI > 70)
Japanese 10-year bond yields *
U.S. 5 year minus 5-year breakeven inflation rate spread *
CNH/USD *
COP/USD *
North European Rolled Steel *
U.S. Midwest Hot Rolled Coiled Steel *
Rice
Heating Oil Crack Spread
Netherland’s AEX Index
Austria’s ATX Index
KBW Bank Index
Hungary’s BUX Index *
Dow Jones Industrials Index
Spain’s IBEX Index
S&P Smal Cap 600
S&P 600
Singapore’s Strait Times Index *
Canada’s TSX Index
And Poland’s WIG Index *
The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)
Japanese 2 and 5-year bond yield *
Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
CHF/JPY *
CHF/EUR
EUR/JPY *
USD/KRW *
Australian Coking Coal *
Lean Hogs *
Oversold (RSI < 30)
Iron Ore *
USD/CNH *
The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)
None
Notes & Ideas:
Government bond yields fell.
The exception was Aussie yield and Japanese 2’s and 5’s.
Every rising streak in yields were broken.
U.S. corporate yields were also lower, which supported the rise in equities.
Incidentally, U.S. government 5-year yields look “full”.
Chilean 2’s are still notably above a longer-term mean.
U.S. 10 year minus 10-year inflation breakeven rate is not overbought but stretched.
And the Copper/Gold Ratio is no longer overbought.
Equities were strong.
HSCEI and the Hang Seng, fell and snapped its 5 week winning streak.
While Singapore’s Strait Times has risen for 6 weeks.
The 3 biotech indices which I track fell and broke their 4 weeks of advance.
The FTSE 250, FTSE 100 and Norway’s OBX have risen for 4 weeks.
South Korea’s KOSPI has fallen for 7 weeks.
And Australia’s Materials Index has climbed 11% over the past 3 weeks.
Commodities prices were mixed, again.
Shipping Rates, Cocoa, Sugar and Precious Metals were the notable gainers.
Coal, Crude Oil, Hogs, Gases, Orange Juice, Urea and Lumber were amongst the largest decliners.
U.S. Hot Rolled Coile Steel has climbed for 4 weeks.
LME Aluminium is in a 5-week winning streak.
Tin has advanced for 6 weeks.
While North European Hot Coiled Steel risen for 7 weeks.
Iron Ore has fallen for 4 weeks and seen its first weekly oversold reading in 2 years.
Natural Gas have fallen for 6 weeks.
Brent Crude has slumped 14% in the past fortnight.
Lumber has declined 12% in 2 weeks.
And many streaks were broken.
The Copper/Gold Ratio fell and snapped a 4-week winning streak.
Gasoil fell and broke a 5-week run of higher prices.
Australian Coking Coal rose and brought 5 weeks of losses to an end.
Gasoil crack spreads fell and snapped a 6-week winning streak.
Lithium Carbonate and Hydroxide rose and broke their 7-week losing streak.
Currencies were active.
Especially anything involving the Japanese Yen.
The Aussie and Loonie were firmer.
The AUD/USD. CNH/USD, KRW/USD and SGD/USD are all in 6 week winning streaks.
The Euro was also mostly stronger.
And the Swissie saw weakness.
The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;
Aluminium 1.3%, Baltic Dry Index 13.1%, Cocoa 7.1%, Cotton 3.2%, Copper 1.9%, Palladium 7.6%, Platinum 6.1%, Sugar 12.2%, Silver 10.3%, Gold 7.4%, Rice 1.9%, Shanghai Composite 2.8%, CSI 300 2.3%, All World Developed ex USA 1.6%, ATX 3%, KBW Banks 1.6%, CAXC 2.4%, China A50 1.7%, IDX 2.8%, DAX 2.7%, DFM 2.6%, DJ Industrials 2.9%, DJ Transports 2.2%, EGX 2.3%, FCATC 5.5%, Tadawul 2.2%, MIB 3%, IBB 6.1%, Ibex 2%, S&P Small Cap 600 2.4%, MOEX 2.5%, Dublin 5.8%, Russell 2000 3.6%, TAIEX 2.6%, Nasdaq Composite 5.2%, KSE 3%, FTSE 250 3.7%, S&P MidCap 400 3.3%, NBI 5.1%, Nasdaq 100 5.1%, Nikkei 225 1.9%, OMX-S 2%, PX 2.9%, SA40 6.1%, SOX 9.3%, IGPA 2.2%, S&P 600 2.4%, S&P 500 3.6%, Eurostoxx 50 2.6%, Nasdaq Transports 1.7%, TSX 3.3%, VN Index 1.9%, WIG 3%, XBI 7.1%, BIST 2.4%, ASX 200 3.2%, ASX Materials 7.6%, ASX Industrials 2.8% and the ASX Small Caps soared 6.4%.
The group of largest decliners for the week included;
Richards Bay Coal (1.7%), Rotterdam Coal (4.3%), Brent Crude (5%), WTI Crude (7.7%), Lean Hogs (3.1%), Heating Oil (4.7%), JKM (1.6%), Lumber (5.7%), JKM in Yen (2.9%), Newcastle Coal (4.7%), Natural Gas (3.1%), Nickel (1.6%), Orange Juice (8%), Gasoline (4.1%), S&P GSCI (2.6%), Dutch TTF Gas (6%), Urea (4.4%), Gasoil (9.3%), Gasoil crack spread (11.9%), BOVESPA (3.1%) and South Korea’s KOSPI fell 5.1%.
August 9, 2026
By Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
rob zdravevski's blog 