rob zdravevski's blog

Macro Extremes (week ending February 27, 2026)

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities. 

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

North American Hot Rolled Coil Steel

Oats *

Wheat *

PHP/USD *

CAC 40 equity index *

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

LME Aluminium *

Tin

Gold in AUD, CAD, CHF, EUR, GBP, USD and ZAR *

AUD/CAD *

AUD/EUR *

AUD/IDR *

AUD/INR *

AUD/JPY *

AUD/SGD *

AUD/USD *

CHF/JPY

CNH/USD *

MYR/USD *

RMB *

Shanghai Composite

All World Developed ex USA *

Austria’s ATX Index *

Hungary’s BUX Index *

Dow Jones Transports *

Egypt’s EGX Index *

Spain’s IBEX *

Brazil’s BOVESPA *

Mexico’s IPC Index *

Nasdaq Biotech Index

Norway’s OBX Index *

Helsinki’s OMX *

Stockholm’s OMX *

Switzerland’s SMI Index

Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) *

Singapore’s STI Index

Israel’s TA-35

Nasdaq Transports *

Canada’s TSX Index *

FTSE 100 *

Poland’s WIG Index *

S&P Biotech Index

And the ASX Materials Index *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

AUD/GBP *

Taiwan’s TAIEX *

South Korea’s KOSPI Index *

Nikkei 225 Index *

South Africa’s SA40 equity Index *

And Thailand SET Index *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

TBX

U.S. 3 year government bond yield

Copper/Gold Ratio

EUR/CHF

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

Australian 10 year minus Aussie 2 year yield spread *

British 2 year government bond yield

London and CME Cocoa *

Sugar #16 *

EUR/AUD

JPY/AUD

USD/MXN *

USD/ZAR

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

GBP/AUD

NZD/AUD *

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields fell.

The Australian 10 year minus 2 year spread, mean reverted.

While the same U.S. spread has fallen for 4 weeks.

The last of the Japanese yields fell from overbought territory.

Canadian and Kiwi 10 year yields have fallen for 4 weeks.

British 2’s along with European 5, 10 & 20 year yields have fallen for 5 weeks, as have Belgian, Danish and Dutch 10 year yields.

Equities were mixed.

Malaysia’s KLSE left overbought territory, while a few others moved into an overbought quinella.

The All World Developed-ex USA is working a streak of 14 weeks of higher consecutive closing prices.

CAC, DAX, Helsinki and TSX have risen for 4 straight weeks.

The OBX, SMI, FTSE 100 are in a 5 week winning streak.

While the ASX Financials fell and snapped its 4 week winning streak.

Thailand’s SET is in a 7 week winning streak and has risen 15% over the past 4 weeks.

The Nikkei 225 has returned 10% in the pats 4 weeks.

South Korea’s KOSPI has soared 21% in 3 weeks.

Brazil’s BOVESPA fell and broke a 7 week run.

The TA35 fell and ended 8 weeks of higher prices.

EGX & STI both fell and snapped their 9 weeks of advance.

The SOX snapped its 10 weeks of consecutive advance.

Commodities were active amongst a concentrated group.

Tin, Oils, Distillates, Platinum, Silver, Orange Juice and Corn were the notable gainers. 

Cocoa, Coffee, Cocoa, Lumber, Tin and Uranium were amongst the decliners.

Coal isn’t overbought, this week.

Cocoa mean reverted.

Natural Gas has fallen for 4 weeks.

Soybeans and Gold (across various currencies) have risen for 4 weeks.

U.S. HRC Steel is in a 6 week winning streak.

The Copper/Gold Ratio has closed at its lowest level since February 1990 and it’s Monthly oversold reading is worth noting.

Richards Bay Coal fell and snapped a 7 week winning streak.

And U.S. Gulf Urea prices have risen for 12 weeks.

Currencies were busy.

Nearly all Yen pairs have left the extremes.

AUD/CAD, AUD/USD and AUD/ZAR have risen for 5 weeks.

AUD/SGD has closed higher for the 6^th consecutive week.

AUD/GBP and AUD/IDR has climbed for 7 weeks.

AUD/EUR in 9 week rising streak.

CAD/GBP has risen for 4 weeks.

GBP/AUD is an oversold quinella and competed a mean reversion.

While the AUD/JPY fell and snapped its 5 week winning run.

BRL/USD fell 0.1% which was enough to break its 6 week advance.

CHF/AUD rose to break is 7 weeks of decline.

And the Filipino Peso has climbed for 4 weeks against the USD.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Bloomberg Commodity Index 1.7%, Brent Crude 1.8%, Baltic Dry Index 4.8%, Lean Hogs 2.2%, Copper 2.7%, Heating Oil 4.8%, U.S. HRC Steel 2.3%, Tin 24.1%, Nickel 2.8%, Orange Juice 6.8%, Platinum 9.1%, Gasoil 2.7%, Silver in AUD 10.3%, Silver in USD 10.8%, Gold in AUD 2.9%, Gold in CAD 3.1%, Gold in CHF 2.4%, Gold in EUR 3%, Gold in GBP 3.3%, Gold in USD 3.3%, Corn 2.5%, Rice 2.2%, Soybeans 1.5%, Wheat 1.9%, Shanghai Composite 2%, All World Developed (ex USA) 1.8%, MIB 1.6%, TAIEX 5.4%, KOSPI 7.5%, Nikkei 225 3.6%, PSE 2.3%, SA40 4.8%, SET 3.7%, TSX 1.5%, FTSE 100 2.1%, Vietnam 3.1%, XBI 2.1%, XMJ 7.4% and the ASX Small Caps rose 1.8%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

Australian Coking Coal (1.8%), Rotterdam Coal (1.7%), LME Cocoa (10.4%), CBOT Cocoa (19.1%), Arabica Coffee (1.7%), Lumber (3.5%), Cattle (4%), Newcastle Coal (1.7%), Natural Gas (3.5%), Uranium (3.5%), Oats (1.5%), KBW Banks (5.9%), China A50 (2%), EGX (2.9%), S&P Small Cap 600 (1.5%), KLSE (2.1%), KRE Regional Banks (7.1%), KSE (3%), Nifty (1.5%), OMX Copenhagen (4.7%), Sensex (1.8%), SOX (2%) and Israel’s TA-35 fell 2.5%.

March 1, 2026

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au 

If your fund manager didn’t see the risk – fire them !

I listened to an interview with a fund manager whose portfolio contains a large portion of major software stocks say, “they didn’t foresee such a decline in these large software names”.

Are you kidding me !

I saw it and most of the rest of did too.

I’ll keep it simple.
The circles in the attached studies are saying, “you have no business buying this stock, if you are a medium to longer term investor”.

The subsequent reminder is that gravity is real as is mean reversion.

p.s. medium term is longer than 1 month…..

February 25, 2026
rob@karriasset.com.au

Macro Extremes (week ending February 20, 2026)

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities. 

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Richards Bay Coal *

WTI and Brent Crude Oil

Oats

Wheat

PHP/USD

CAC 40 equity index

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Australian 3 year government bond yields

Japanese 2 & 5 year government bond yields *

Australian Coking Coal *

Aluminium

Gold in AUD, CAD, CHF, EUR, GBP, USD and ZAR *

AUD/CAD *

AUD/EUR *

AUD/IDR *

AUD/INR *

AUD/JPY *

AUD/SGD *

AUD/USD *

CLP/USD *

CNH/USD *

MYR/USD *

RMB *

All World Developed ex USA *

Austria’s ATX Index *

Hungary’s BUX Index *

Dow Jones Transports *

Spain’s IBEX *

Brazil’s BOVESPA *

Taiwan’s TAIEX *

Malaysia’s KLSE *

South Korea’s KOSPI Index *

Mexico’s IPC Index *

Nasdaq Biotech Index

Nikkei 225 Index *

Norway’s OBX Index *

Helsinki’s OMX *

Stockholm’s OMX *

South Africa’s SA40 equity Index *

Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) *

Singapore’s STI Index

Israel’s TA-35

Nasdaq Transports *

Canada’s TSX Index *

FTSE 100 *

Poland’s WIG Index *

Türkiye’s BIST *

And the ASX Materials Index *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Rotterdam Coal *

AUD/GBP *

Egypt’s EGX Index *

And Thailand SET Index *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

U.S. 2 year government bond yield

Arabica Coffee

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

Australian 10 year minus Aussie 2 year yield spread

Chilean 10 year government bond yield

London and CME Cocoa *

Sugar #16 *

CAD/AUD

USD/CNH *

USD/MXN *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

USD/ZAR *

London and CME Cocoa *

NZD/AUD *

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields were mixed.

The U.S. 5 year minus 5 year breakeven inflation rate spread rose and broke a 7 week losing streak.

Belgian and Danish 10 year yields have fallen for 4 weeks.

British 2, 3 & 5 year yields have also declined for 4 weeks.

The U.S. 3 month bill isn’t oversold anymore.

And the Australian 10 year minus Aussie 5 year spread, mean reverted.

Equities were mostly higher.

Many remain in extreme overbought territory.

The OBX, SMI, FTSE 100 and ASX Financials are in a 4 week winning streak.

Thailand’s SET is in a 6 week winning streak.

Brazil’s BOVESPA has risen for 7 weeks.

The TA35 have climbed for 8 weeks.

EGX & STI have climbed for 9 weeks.

The SOX have risen for 10 weeks.

South Korea’s KOSPI has advance in 8 of its 9 recent weeks.

The All World Developed-ex USA is working a streak of 13 weeks of higher consecutive closing prices.

The S&P MidCap 400 is nearing an overbought reading.

And Chile’s IGPA dropped out of overbought territory.

Commodities were active amongst a concentrated group.

Coal, Oils, Distillates, Precious Metals, Wheat and Oats were the notable gainers. 

Cocoa, Coffee, Lumber, Tin, Orange Juice & Rice were amongst the decliners.

The Copper/Gold Ratio has closed at its lowest level since February 1990 and it’s Monthly oversold reading is worth noting.

Richards Bay Coal has climbed for 7 weeks.

North American Hot Coiled Rolled Steel is in a 5 week winning streak.

Iron Ore rose and broke a 6 week losing streak.

Sugar rose and snapped a 4 weeks of losses.

And U.S. Gulf Urea prices have risen for 11 weeks.

Currencies were busy.

Nearly all Yen pairs have left the extremes.

AUD/CAD, AUD/USD and AUD/ZAR have risen for 5 weeks.

AUD/SGD has closed higher for the 6^th consecutive week.

AUD/GBP and AUD/IDR has climbed for 7 weeks.

AUD/EUR in 9 week rising streak.

CAD/GBP has risen for 4 weeks.

GBP/AUD is an oversold quinella and competed a mean reversion.

While the AUD/JPY fell and snapped its 5 week winning run.

BRL/USD fell 0.1% which was enough to break its 6 week advance.

CHF/AUD rose to break is 7 weeks of decline.

And the Filipino Peso has climbed for 4 weeks against the USD.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Rotterdam Coal 2.7%, Bloomberg Commodity Index 2%, Brent Crude 5.9%, WTI Crude 5.8%, Cotton 2.3%, Lean Hogs 2.6%, Heating Oil 7.7%, JKM LNG 1.9%, JKM LNG in Yen 6.8%, LME Aluminium 2.2%, Nickel 2.9%, Palladium 4.5%, Platinum 4.7%, Gasoline 4.8%, Sugar 3.8%, S&P GSCI 3.2%, CRB Index 1.5%, Gasoil 9%, Urea Middle East 1.6%, Silver in AUD 9.1%, Silver in USD 9.3%, Gold in CAD 1.8%, Gold in CHF 2.4%, Gold in EUR 2%, Gold in GBP 2.6%, Gold in ZAR 1.9%, Oats 6.2%, Wheat 5.8%, AEX 2.4%, ATX 3.3%, KBW 1.7%, CAC 2.5%, DAX 1.4%, DJ Transports 2.6%, IBEX 2.9%, TAIEX 5.7%, Nasdaq Composite 1.5%, KOSPI 5.5%, Nasdaq 100 1.1%, OBX 3.3%, Helsinki 3%, Stockholm 2%, PX 2.7%, SA40 2%, SET 3.5%, SMI 1.9%, SOX 1.5%, STI 1.6%, TA35 1.5%, Nasdaq Transports 3%, TSX 2.3%, FTSE 100 2.3%, VN Index 3.9%, S&P Biotech Index 1.6%, ASX Financials 2.8%, ASX 200 1.8%, ASX Industrials 3.1% and the ASX Small Caps rose 2.3%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

LME Cocoa (11.9%), CBOT Cocoa (13.5%), Arabica Coffee (4.2%), Lumber (3.4%), Tin (7.9%), Natural Gas (6%), Orange Juice (7.7%), Robusta Coffee (6.3%), Dutch TTF Gas (2.9%), Rice (7.3%), Pakistan;s KSE (3.6%), and Türkiye’s BIST fell 1.7%

February 22, 2026

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au 

Caterpillar – the case for owning equities

Around 2009, Caterpillar’s stock price was trading between $25 – $38 per share.

Today, CAT is trading at $752 per share.

Investors who bought Caterpillar stock within that 5 month trough during late 2008 and early 2009 and continued to hold (for the next 17 years) have seen a 20x – 30x return on their money.

I can safely say, that no commercial, industrial or residential real estate asset has come close to producing such a return over a similar period.

Incidentally, investors in Caterpillar didn’t need to pay for insurance, repairs, maintenance, real estate agents costs or property taxes over that time…….

February 19, 2026

rob@karriasset.com.au

p.s. allow some variance when buying in the depths of a trough

Sweden’s OMX 30 is quite full

Here is the 6th such pricing extreme in Sweden’s OMX Stockholm 30 Index over the past 40 years.

Note, this is a monthly price study.

It’s also interesting to note that the constituents of OMXS30 have notably changed over that time.

February 19, 2026

rob@karriasset.com.au

Macro Extremes (week ending February 13, 2026)

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities. 

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Indian and Norwegian 10 year government bond yields

Richards Bay Coal

Rotterdam Coal *

AUD/CHF *

AUD/THB *

BRL/USD

CHF/USD

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Japanese 2, 5 and 10 year government bond yields *

Australian Coking Coal *

Gold in AUD, CAD, CHF, EUR, GBP, USD and ZAR.

AUD/IDR *

AUD/INR

AUD/JPY

CLP/USD *

CNH/USD *

MYR/USD *

RMB

All World Developed ex USA *

Austria’s ATX Index

Hungary’s BUX Index *

Dow Jones Transports *

Egypt’s EGX Index *

Spain’s IBEX *

Brazil’s BOVESPA *

Taiwan’s TAIEX *

Malaysia’s KLSE *

South Korea’s KOSPI Index *

Mexico’s IPC Index *

Norway’s OBX Index *

Helsinki’s OMX *

Stockholm’s OMX *

South Africa’s SA40 equity Index *

Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) *

Nasdaq Transports *

Canada’s TSX Index

FTSE 100 *

Poland’s WIG Index *

Türkiye’s BIST *

And the ASX Materials Index

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

AUD/CAD *

AUD/EUR *

AUD/GBP *

AUD/SGD *

AUD/USD *

Japan’s Nikkei 225 *

And Thailand SET Index

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

U.S. 2 year government bond yield

Cotton *

CHF/AUD *

EUR/CHF

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

U.S. 3 month bill yield *

London and CME Cocoa *

Sugar #16 *

USD/CLP *

USD/MXN *

USD/ZAR *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

Australian 10 year minus 2 year yield spread *

NZD/AUD

USD/SGD

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields fell.

U.S. 5 year minus U.S. 3 month spread has fallen for 4 weeks.

The U.S. 5 year minus 5 year breakeven inflation rate spread is in a 7 week losing streak.

And the British 30 year yield fell and snapped a 4 week rising streak.

Equities were mixed, again, again.

A few more indices said goodbye to overbought extreme territory.

KBW Banks fell 5% and that was enough to see it leave overbought land.

This was also the case for the KSE, the S&P MidCap 400, U.S. biotechs, Czechia’s PX Index, Israel’s TA-35 and Chile’s IGPA.

Hungary’s BUX fell and broke its 5 week winning streak.

While many remain at overbought extremes and some extended streaks are in place.

Brazil’s BOVESPA have risen for 6 weeks.

The TA35 have climbed for 7 weeks.

EGX & STI have climbed for 8 weeks.

The SOX have risen for 9 weeks.

While Poland’s WIG fell and snapped its 9 weeks of advance.

Austria’s ATX fell and broke and ended 11 weeks of advance.

The All World Developed-ex USA is working a streak of 12 weeks of higher consecutive closing prices.

Commodities were active amongst a concentrated group.

Coal, Coffee, Lumber, Orange Juice & Oats were the notable gainers. 

Cocoa, Hogs, Gases, Distillates & Palladium were amongst the decliners.

Aluminium, Brent Crude & Middle Eastern Urea prices left overbought territory.

The Copper/Gold Ratio is making news lows.

Richards Bay Coal has climbed for 6 weeks from the depths of oversold world.

Arabica Coffee rose and broke 4 weeks of decline.

Sugar has fallen for 4 weeks straight.

Gasoline & Rice both fell and snapped a 5 week rising streak.

U.S. Gulf Urea prices have risen for 10 weeks.

Currencies were quieter.

The big news was the new strength for the Yen and the continued strength in AUD. The latter is evident in the streaks listed below.

AUD/CAD and AUD/USD has risen for 4 weeks.

AUD/SGD has closed higher for the 5^th consecutive week.

AUD/GBP and AUD/IDR has climbed for 6 weeks.

AUD/EUR in 8 week rising streak.

While the AUD/JPY fell and snapped its 5 week winning run.

BRL/USD fell 0.1% which was enough to break its 6 week advance.

CHF/AUD rose to break is 7 weeks of decline.

And the Filipino Peso has climbed for 4 weeks against the USD.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Richards Bay Coal 3%, Rotterdam Coal 1.9%, Baltic Dry Index 8.3%, Cotton 1.7%, Arabica Coffee 2.4%, Lumber 2.2%, Lithium Carbonate 1.5%, Newcastle Coal 2.3%, Orange Juice 15.1%, Robusta Coffee 2.8%, Uranium 2.7%, Oats 3%, Soybeans 1.6%, Wheat 2.4%, All World Developed ex USA 2.5%, IDX 3.5%, TAIEX 5.7%, KOSPI 8.2%, Nikkei 225 5%, SET 5.6%, TA35 2.9%, TSX 1.9%, VN Index 3.9%, ASX Financials 5.4%, ASX 200 2.4%, ASX Materials 5.1% and BIST rose 4.9%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

LME Cocoa (15.9%), CBOT Cocoa (14.1%), Palm Oil (2.5%), Lean Hogs (3.2%), Copper (1.3%), Heating Oil (2.1%), Natural Gas (5.2%), Palladium (2.2%), Gasoline (1.6%), Sugar (1.7%), Dutch TTF Gas (7.6%), Gasoil (3.4%), Urea Middle East (2.6%), Silver in AUD (1.5%), Rice (1.9%), KBW Banks (5.5%), China A50 (1.7%), DJ Transports (2.8%), Nasdaq Composite (2.1%), KRE (3.2%), KSE (2.4%), NDQ (1.4%), Copenhagen (2.2%), PX (4.3%), IGPA (2.7%), Nasdaq Transports (2.7%) and the ASX Industrials fell 2.1%.

February 15, 2026

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au 

Datadog’s daily noise isn’t the main show

While Datadog’s (DDOG:US) stock price jumped in yesterday’s trade, the main story is not getting torched buying the stock at extreme high’s.

February 11, 2026

rob@karriasset.com.au

Still more downside for Zillow

Zillow is U.S. real estate online marketplace and portal.

The stock has some staunch supporters in the face of a ‘tape’ that reads poorly.

It’s currently $54.42,

a print somewhere near $36.50 would satisfy many of my criteria to suggest a notable low and washout.

That is a further 33% below today’s price.

February 11, 2026

rob@karriasset.com.au

Cocoa is nearing a mean reversion

2 years ago, I wrote about the parabolic price move in Cocoa.

Here are some links to some of those notes.

Parabolic Cocoa

Sell your Cocoa and Chocolate

Now, Cocoa prices have nearly completed their mean reversion.

Keep in mind, that parabolas honour mean reversion more so and quicker than other occurrences in asset pricing.

Today, there are many other parabolic price shapes out there.

by Rob Zdravevski

February 10, 2026

rob@karriasset.com.au

Macro Extremes (week ending February 6, 2026)

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities. 

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. \

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Rotterdam Coal *

Brent Crude Oil *

U.S. MidWest Hot Rolled Coil Steel

Newcastle Coal *

S&P GSCI Index *

Middle East Urea

AUD/CHF

AUD/INR

AUD/JPY *

EUR/USD

GBP/JPY *

NZD/USD *

And Thailand’s SET Index *

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Australian 2 year government bond yields *

Japanese yield curve *

South Korean 10 year bond yield *

Australian Coking Coal *

LME Aluminium

Gold in AUD, CAD, CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

AUD/THB *

CAD/JPY

CHF/JPY *

CLP/USD *

CNH/USD *

EUR/JPY *

MYR/USD *

RMB

All World Developed ex USA

KBW Banks

Dow Jones Transports *

Spain’s IBEX *

Taiwan’s TAIEX

Malaysia’s KLSE

Pakistan’s KSE Index *

South Korea’s KOSPI Index *

S&P MidCap 400

Nasdaq Biotech’s

Japan’s Nikkei 225

Helsinki’s OMX *

Stockholm’s OMX

Czechia’s PX Index *

South Africa’s SA40 equity Index *

Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX)

Chile’s IGPA *

Israel’s TA-35

Nasdaq Transports *

FTSE 100 *

Poland’s WIG Index *

And the S&P Biotech Index

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Indian 10 year bond yield *

AUD/CAD *

AUD/EUR

AUD/GBP *

AUD/IDR *

AUD/SGD *

AUD/USD *

MYR/USD

Hungary’s BUX Index *

Egypt’s EGX Index *

Brazil’s BOVESPA *

U.S. Regional Banks Index

Mexico’s IPC Index *

Norway’s OBX Index

And Türkiye’s BIST Index *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Australian 10 year minus 2 year yield spread *

Arabica Coffee

Sugar #16

CHF/AUD

EUR/CHF

EUR/GBP *

USD/CHF

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

U.S. 3 month bill yield *

London and CME Cocoa *

EUR/AUD

JPY/AUD

JPY/CAD

JPY/EUR

JPY/GBP

NZD/AUD

USD/CLP

USD/CNH

USD/MXN

USD/ZAR

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

Cotton

Sugar #16 *

CAD/AUD *

GBP/AUD

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields mostly rose.

Shorter dated UK yields fell as did the U.S. curve.

BofA Corporate High Yields are changing trend, upwards.

Most sovereign bond yields are at risk of mean reversion, which calls for lower travel (or bond buying).

French 10 year yields rose and broke 4 weeks of decline.

British 30 year yield has risen for 5 weeks.

U.S. 5 year minus 5 year inflation break-even has declined for 6 weeks.

And watch the Australian 10 year minus 2 year yield spread.

Equities were mixed, again.

A few more indices said goodbye to overbought extreme territory.

ASX Industrials and KLSE fell and broke 4 weeks up,

Hungary’s BUX and Brazil’s BOVESPA have risen for 5 weeks.

The BUX has closed higher 8 of out last 9 weeks.

The TA35 have climbed for 6 weeks.

BIST fell and broke its 5 week run.

TAIEX fell to break a 6 week winning streak.

EGX & STI have climbed for 7 weeks.

The SOX have risen for 8 weeks.

Poland’s WIG has soared for 9 weeks.

The All World Developed-ex USA & Austria’s ATX have climbed for 11 weeks.

Commodities were mixed but very active.

Cocoa, Urea, Soybeans and Palladium were the notable gainers. 

Silver, Uranium, Lithium, Tin, Coffee and Nickel were the few decliners.

Except for uranium, the losers were repeat offenders.

Copper looks like peaking, for now.

London Cocoa rose and broke 4 week losing streak,

while CME Cocoa has fallen for 6 straight weeks,

North European Hot Rolled Steel & Cocoa rose and snapped a 4 week losing streak.

Palm Oil fell and broke 4 weeks of consecutive advance.

Gold Volatility dropped noticeably.

Heating Oil, Gasoil, Wheat & Newcastle Coal fell and snapped a 4 week winning streak.

Arabica Coffee has strung together 4 weeks of decline.

Gasoline & Rice is working a 5 week rising streak.

U.S. Gulf Urea prices have risen for 9 weeks,

Brent and WTI Crude fell and snapped a 6 week winning streak.

Uranium fell 13% and broke 10 consecutive weeks of higher prices.

And North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel rose to break 5 weeks of losses.

Currencies were busy.

The Aussie rose.

AUD/EUR in 7 week rising streak.

AUD/GBP, AUD/JPY and AUD/IDR in 5 weeks of advance.

AUD/THB and AUS/SGD have climbed for 4 weeks straight.

BRL/USD up for 6 weeks.

CHF and CAD were mixed.

CHF/AUD has fallen for 7 weeks.

And the USD/INR fell and snapped a 6 week winning streak.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

London Cocoa 4.7%, Palladium 2.2%, Urea U.S. Gulf 3.3%, Middle East Urea 7.1%, Gold in CAD 1.9%, Gold in CHF 1.8%, Gold in EUR 1.7%, Gold in GBP 2%, Rice 1.8%, Soybeans 4.8%, KBW Banks 5.1%, CAC 1.8%, DJIA 2.5%, DJT 8.7%, EGX 4.1%, IBB 1.5%, IJR 3.9%, RTY 2.1%, KRE 7%, Mexico 4.5%, MDY 4.4%, NBI 2.2%, OMXH 2%, OMXS 3.1%, SENSEX 1.6%, SET 2.1%, SMI 2.4%, Nasdaq Transports 8%, TSX 1.7% and ASX Financials rose 1.5%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

Aluminium (2.5%), Bloomberg Commodity Index (2.3%), Brent Crude (1.8%), Baltic Dry Index (10.5%), WTI Crude (2.6%), Cotton (3.3%), Palm Oil (1.8%), Heating Oil (4.7%), JKM LNG (3.6%), Arabica Coffee (11.5%), Lumber (1.4%), JKM LNG in Yen (8.5%), Lithium Carbonate (7.8%), Lithium Hydroxide (8.9%), Tin (15.7%), Natural Gas (21.4%), Nickel (5%), Orange Juice (26.4%), Shanghai Rebar (1.5%), Robusta Coffee (8.7%), Sugar # 16 (6.1%),  Tin (10.1%), S&P GSCI (1.8%), CFR Iron Ore (3.2%), CRB (3.3%), TTF Gas (9.1%), Gasoil (5.2%), Uranium (13.1%), Silver in AUD (9.2%), Silver in USD (8.5%), Oats (1.6%), Wheat (1.5%), IDX (4.7%), FCATC (6.5%), HSCEI (3.1%), HSI (3%), IXIC (1.8%), KOSPI (2.6%), NDQ (1.9%), NKY (1.8%), NIFTY (5%), OBX (3.2%), OMXC (2.9%), IGPA (1.8%), Vietnam (4%), XJO (1.8%), XMJ (4.1%), XNJ (2.4%), XSO (7.7%) and Türkiye’s BIST Index (2.3%).

February 8, 2026

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au