Trying to hear what's not being said
October 15, 2026 Leave a comment
As Australians read about, feel or believe in the low morale and confidence in business and the economy, while also piling on the lack of productivity narrative (and it may all be true),
such an ebb makes for interesting buying of Australian equities.
The adage of buying when others are fearful comes to mind,
because it hasn’t happened all that often over the past 40 years.
It’s the hubris that is more worrying.
October 15, 2026
October 15, 2026 Leave a comment
As per last month’s note, avoid the noise and the headlines,
and I’ll re-iterate, “The Aussie unemployment rate should peak (within this wave) between 4.7% – 5.2%”……..before I expect a minor easing in that number.
And with that brings other opportunities in the equity market.
October 15, 2026
October 15, 2026 Leave a comment
“After you buy something you paid for, it doesn’t matter. People cling to the idea that at least they should get their money back; maybe there is bad news, and you should sell before it goes lower; maybe put it into something else where you get your money back, but people prefer to make it back where they lost it. People anchor numbers in their heads, and they hold on to them.”
– extract from recent Seth Klarman interview
originally posted in July 2022
October 14, 2026 Leave a comment
Nearly 2 months ago, I quipped whether the stated rate of Australian inflation is true.
My cynicism about that remains.
In the meantime, while Australian inflation has risen since that August 27th note and today’s synopsis is the same as that headline.
Australia’s inflation rate is not at a dangerous level, yet!
However, the most recent turn higher in the inflation rate commenced in September 2025 and the ‘shapes’ I am seeing today, are early analogues last recorded in 1969.
But, there is silver lining for equity investors when inflation rates are at extremes.
October 14, 2026
rob@karriasset.com.au
October 14, 2026 Leave a comment
It’s quiet on the Silver front, because the price of Silver has halved over recent times.
That’s a fact.
A question that readers should ask is, who paid $120 for an ounce of Silver in January 2026?
That wasn’t too long after seeing reports of folks lining up outside bullion and government mint outlets, waiting to buy Gold and Silver.
Avid readers of my work will be able to recite my reminders about how parabolas honour mean reversion much more, than other price moves.
Then, in mid August 2026, I suggested that Silver will ‘pop’ to the $69 region but it’s still not cheap enough.
From then, it did bounce (to US$71) and since late August, Silver is back to US$59.
Today, I think it is about to embark on a new lower leg of downward travel.
Clients will be recipients of my ultimate entry price suggestions.
October 14, 2026
rob@karriasset.com.au
October 14, 2026 Leave a comment
This 10 year study between the price of Copper and the stock price of Freeport McMoran (FCX:US) shows an impressive correlation.
More so, it has spent 80% of the time at a level which I would call strongly correlated.
Additionally, over that 10 year period, the price of Copper has doubled while FCX’s stock price has been a 7 bagger.
That’s what I call, operational leverage.
October 14, 2026
rob@karriasset.com.au
October 13, 2026 Leave a comment
I am interested in the price action of the Mexican stock market.
When I have mentioned this amongst investing peers, the anecdotal response has ranged from negative to dismissive.
While the antithesis doesn’t render my initial interest is correct, it does make me more attentive.
Oh, and the Mexican Peso is oversold versus the USD.
Incidentally, Mexico’s GDP is globally ranked in a tie for 12th alongside Australia.
October 13, 2026
rob@karriasset.com.au
October 12, 2026 Leave a comment
From this past edition, Mexico’s IPC equity index was listed in an oversold category.
Since then, it has hung tough and I think it’s making some good ‘shapes’.
It’s latest closing price was 66,059 points.
October 12, 2026
rob@karriasset.com.au
Macro Extremes is my weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.
October 12, 2026 Leave a comment
The opening descriptor in each edition of my weekly Macro Extremes is, “A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.“
From the July 10, 2026 edition, the XBI US (biotech) ETF was listed in the overbought extreme category.
At that moment, that was telling me to be careful with a long position.
Probability suggests selling some or all of it, and it serves as a warning to those who are considering to buy it.
For the adventurous and experienced, ‘shorting’ may be an idea that comes to mind.
The circles on the chart below denotes the date of that particular edition of Macro Extremes.
October 12, 2026
rob@karriasset.com.au
