rob zdravevski's blog

Macro Extremes (week ending July 31, 2026)

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Australian 10 year minus 2-year bond yield spread

Australian 10 year minus 5-year bond yield spread

TBT *

U.S. 20 and 30-year bond yields

Arabica Coffee

AUD/CHF

CAD/CHF

EUR/CHF

PX Index

ASX 200 Index

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Copper/Gold Ratio *

Indonesian and Japanese 10-year bond yields

U.S. 5 year minus 5-year breakeven inflation rate spread *

U.S. 10 year minus 10-year breakeven inflation rate spread *

North European Rolled Steel *

U.S. Midwest Hot Rolled Coiled Steel *

Gasoil Heating Oil Crack Spread

Chinese RMB

USD/IDR

Hungary’s BUX Index *

Singapore’s Strait Times Index *

And Poland’s WIG Index

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Japanese 2-year bond yield *

COP/USD *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

TLT

Australian Coking Coal

Lean Hogs *

Lithium Hydroxide *

CAD/JPY

CHF/JPY

EUR/JPY

USD/KRW

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

Iron Ore (SGX and China CFR)

USD/CNH

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

None

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields rose, again…again!

Austrian, Belgian, Canadian, Danish, Spanish, German, Finnish, French, British, Italian, Dutch, Portuguese and Swedish 10-year bond yields.

Also, in a 5-week rising streak are British, German and U.S. 20’s and 30’s.

Many shorter dated (2’s and 5’s) yields fell.

Aussie 10 year minus U.S. 10-year bond yield spread performed a bearish outside reversal.

Aussie yields along with Chinese, Korean, Norwegian, Kiwi and Turkish 10-year yields fell and broke their 4 weeks of decline.

And the U.S. 3-month bill is no longer overbought.

Equities were quieter.

HSCEI, the Hang Seng, Singapore’s Strait Times and Australia’s Financials Index have risen for 5 weeks.

The former has risen 16% over that time.

The latter has risen for 7 of the past 8 weeks.

The Nasdaq biotech index and Türkiye’s BIST have declined for 4 consecutive weeks.  

South Korea’s KOSPI has fallen for 6 weeks.

Commodities prices were mixed, with a bias for weakness.

Coffee, Steel, Platinum, Urea and Gasoil were the notable gainers.

Coal, Crude Oil, Hogs, Gases Lithium and Lumber were amongst the largest decliners.

The Copper/Gold Ratio and Urea have risen for 4 weeks.

Tin and Gasoil have climbed for 5 weeks.

While North European Hot Coiled Steel and Gasoil crack spreads have risen for 6 weeks.

The latter soared 24% in the past week alone.

JKM LNG as priced in Yen and Gasoline declined and snapped their 4-week winning streaks.

Cattle prices rose and snapped a 5-week losing streak.

JKM and Dutch TTF Gas fell and broke 5 weeks of advance.

Australian Coking Coal & Natural Gas have fallen for 5 weeks.

Lithium Carbonate and Hydroxide have sunk for 7 weeks.

Currencies were active.

The Aussie was weaker except against the USD where it has risen for 5 consecutive weeks.

The Loonie was lower.

Euro was firmer and the British Pound was mixed.

The Yen was notably higher while the USD was weaker.

EUR/AUD and JPY/AUD rose to snap a 4-week decline.

While the pairs of USD/CNH, USD/KRW and USD/SGD have fallen for 5 straight weeks.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Cotton 2.3%, Copper 1.7%, Arabica Coffee 5.8%, Cattel 2.1%, Rotterdam Coal 1.5%, North European Steel 2.1%, U.S. Midwest Steel 3%, Orange Juice 9.3%, Palladium 2.2%, Platinum 3.4%, Tin 2.5%, Urea 4.6%, Gasoil 6.8%, Gasoil crack spread 24.1%, All World Developed ex USA 1.9%, BUX 2.2%, CAC 1.6%, DAX 2.1%, HSCEI 4.1%, Hang Seng 3.7%, Bovespa 2.3%, MOEX 2.8%, Nasdaq Composite 1.6%, KLSE 1.4%, KSE 3%, NIFTY 2.6%, Stockholm 1.5%, PX 1.9%, SA40 1.8%, Sensex 2.7%, S&P 500 1.1%, VN Index 3%, WIG 2.7%, ASX Financials 1.6%, ASX 200 2.3%, ASM Materials 2% and the ASX Industrials rose1.6%.

The group of largest decliners for the week included; 

Australian Coking Coal (6.1%), Aluminium 2.5%, Bloomberg Commodity Index (2.1%), Brent Crude (9.1%), WTI Crude (5.1%), DXY (1.6%), Palm Oil (1.7%), Iron Ore (1.8%), Lean Hogs (4.7%), JKM (2.5%), Lumber (6.2%), JKM in Yen (6.8%), Lithium Hydroxide (7.8%), Newcastle Coal (1.4%), Natural Gas (4.3%), Lithium Carbonate (5.7%), Gasoline (4.2%), Sugar #16 (2.1%), S&P GSCI (2.1%), China CFR Iron Ore (3.4%), CRB Index (2.7%), Dutch TTF Gas (7.1%), Gold in CHF and EUR (1.6%), Corn (5.1%), Oats (3.6%), Soybean (5.3%), Wheat (5.7%), DJ Transports (6.4%), FTSE Saudi (2%), SET (1.3%), SOX (4.3%), TA35 (2.4%), Nasdaq Transports (4.4%), BIST (3.5%) and XBI biotech ETF fell 2.3%.

August 2, 2026

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au

Staying Short on the KOSPI

In a further update of my read of the Kospi Index…..

More downside for the KOSPI ahead

not withstanding the bounce or reversals seen last week,

this current move should see the Kospi come back to the 4,700 region,

from its current price of 6,595.

August 1, 2026

rob@karriasset.com.au

Shorting may seem easy

That gravitational pull for the prices of semiconductor and memory securities remains omnipresent, but the current (interim) decline should pause quite soon.

In Intel’s case, $68.30 could be seen quickly in the coming week or so (from its current $81.88), but the main damage of the first wave’s decline has been seen.

New “shorter’s” entering at current prices may be hurt on a bounce.

At that stage, you can queue up those ‘buying the dip’.

While, I still think Intel’s will eventually trade down to the $44 mark.

It’s going to be a cruel summer for some.

July 30, 2026

rob@karriasset.com.au

How did equities trade….

…….when we saw a story of a strong Aussie Dollar, a weak Yen and an extreme in appetite for risk?

July 24, 2026

More downside for the KOSPI ahead

When I wrote about shorting South Korea’s KOSPI, 5 weeks ago……

The KOSPI – an uncomfortable long

it’s current 30% decline isn’t being called a correction, let alone a ‘crash’.

It tells me there a healthy bunch of deniers.

And whilst categorising a market move as a crash is good for media ratings,

I still think that the KOSPI will halve from here.

July 20, 2026

rob@karriasset.com.au

Macro Extremes (week ending July 17, 2026)

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion

 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

U.S 3-month bill yield *

Cocoa *

Robusta Coffee *

Wheat

GBP/JPY

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Copper/Gold Ratio *

Korean and Russian 10 year bond yields

U.S. 5 year minus 5 year breakeven inflation rate spread *

KBW Banks Index *

Thailand’s SET Index

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

COP/USD *

Singapore’s Strait Times *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

EUR/GBP *

Shanghai Composite Index

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

None

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

MOEX Russia Index

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields rose, again.

Except for the U.S. yields.

Encouragingly, U.S. corporate bond yields fell.

Chilean yields rose noticeably.

And, the U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 2 year yield spread has risen for 4 weeks straight.

Equities were mixed, again.

Mexico’s IPC Index rose and snapped a 4-week losing streak.

While the FTSE Saudi Index has fallen for 4 weeks.

Inversely, the Dow Jones Transport are in a 4-week losing streak.

Many more equity indices dropped out from overbought territory.

Korea’s KOSPI has slumped 27% over the past 4 weeks.

And Russia’s MOEX has slumped for 9 consecutive weeks.

Commodities were also a mixed bag.

Oils, Gases, Distillates, Shipping Rates, Cocoa, Coffee, Oats, Corn & Wheat were the notable gainers.

Coal, Orange Juice, Lithium, Gold and Silver were amongst the decliners.

North European Hot Coiled Steel has risen for 4 weeks.

Cattle has sunk for 4 weeks.

Australian Coking Coal has fallen for 6 weeks.

Dutch TTF Gas has soared 37% in 3 weeks.

Arabica Coffee fell and broke a 5-week winning streak.

Robusta Coffee is in a 6 week winning streak.

JKM LNG as priced in Yen has soared 30% in the past 3 weeks.

Currencies were quieter.

The Aussie & the Loonie were mainly higher.

GBP/EUR and the GBP/JPY has risen for 4 weeks.

USD was mixed, again.

And COP/USD snapped an 8-week unbeaten streak.   

  

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Aluminium 5%, Rotterdam Coal 2%, Bloomberg Commodity Index 3.6%, Brent Crude 15.9%, WTI Crude 15.1%, Lean Hogs 2.7%, Heating Oil 14.3%, JKM LNG 9.3%, LNG in Yen 12.5%, Newcastle Coal 3.6%, Gasoline 14%, S&P GSCI 6.1%, CRB Index 4.3%, TTF Gas 18%, U.S. Gulf Urea 4%, Gasoil 16.9%, Wheat 6.6%, IDX 4.2%, DJ Transports 2.5%, Hang Seng 1.6%, KLSE 2.4%, KRE 2.2%, Copenhagen 1.6% and PSE rose 1.9%.

The group of largest decliners for the week included; 

Australian Coking Coal (2.1%), Baltic Dry Index (6.5%), Cocoa (8.8%), Cotton (3.6%), Arabica Coffee (4.2%), Cattle (4.6%), Orange Juice (3%), Palladium (1.8%), Silver (6.6%), Gold (2.5%), Oats (4.2%), Shanghai (5.8%), CSI 300 (5.3%), ATX (1.9%), China A50 (4%), DFM (3.8%), FCATC (9.1%), Bovespa (2.3%), MOEX (8.7%), Dublin (2.3%), TAIEX (5.9%), Nasdaq Composite (2.9%), KSE (3.5%), KOSPI (8.8%), Nasdaq 100 (4.1%), Nikkei 225 (6.4%), PX (1.7%), SOX (10%), IGPA (1.5%), S&P 500 (1.6%), Vietnam (2.2%), XBI (3%), ASX Materials (2.8%), BIST 2.4% and the ASX Small Caps fell 2.6%.

July 19, 2026

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au

July 2026 newsletter

This month’s newsletter discusses higher interest rates, owning more ‘hard assets’ and how China will export inflation.

https://mailchi.mp/karriasset/the-end-of-the-deflation-era

July 14, 2026

rob@karriasset.com.au

Sk Hynix to halve and halve again?

On June 9th, 2026, I wrote (implied) shorting the KOSPI.

The KOSPI – an uncomfortable long

In such a market, there are proxies.

SK Hynix is one of them.

I don’t know why anyone would have bought the stock over the past 2 months, let alone bought the U.S. ADR’s which listed last week.

For those who refuse to sell any of their good fortune……SK Hynix can very well fall to KRW 600 per share.

July 13, 2026

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Macro Extremes (week ending July 10, 2026)

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

U.S 3-month bill yield *

Cocoa *

Arabica & Robusta Coffee

GBP/JPY

IBB & NBI biotech ETF’s *

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Copper/Gold Ratio *

U.S. 5 year minus 5 year breakeven inflation rate spread

USD/IDR *

KBW Banks Index

Hungary’s BUX Index

Dow Jones Industrial Index

Taiwan’s TAIEX *

Nikkei 225 *

Thailand’s SET Index

And Poland’s WIG Index

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

COP/USD *

Singapore’s Strait Times *

XBI biotech ETF *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

EUR/GBP *

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

None

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

None

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields rose, again.

Except for the Japanese 10’s and 30’s, which fell and departed overbought territory.

Italy’s 10’s followed on higher, from last week’s outside bullish reversal.

Polish and Czech 10-year yields rose to break a 4-week trend.

The Indian 10-year yield rose and brought 6 weeks of decline to an end.

And Russia’s 10-year bond yield fell to snap 9 weeks of higher yields and are no longer overbought.

Equities were mixed and subdued with a slight bias for higher prices.

Mexico’s IPC Index has fallen for 4 weeks.

The BUX, DJ Industrials, SMI, IBEX along with the IBB and NBI U.S. biotech ETF’s fell and broke their 4-week winning streak.

The SOX, Russell 2000, S&P 600 Smalls and a few others dropped out of overbought territory.

Korea’s KOSPI has slumped 18% over the past 3 weeks.

While the HSCEI Index has risen 7% in a fortnight.

Commodities activity increased.

Oils, Gases, Distillates, Shipping Rates, Cocoa, Coffee, Oats, Corn & Wheat were the notable gainers.

Coal, Orange Juice, Lithium, Gold and Silver were amongst the decliners.

Aluminium rose and broke a 4-week losing streak.

Oats have risen for 4 weeks.

Inversely, Shanghai Rebar prices have fallen for 4 weeks.

Coffee is in a 5-week winning streak, with Arabica soaring 33% over that time.

While Nickel, Brent Crude and WTI Crude snapped 5 weeks of decline.

Middle Eastern and U.S. Gulf Urea prices rose and snapped their respective 9- and 11-week losing streaks.
Platinum also rose and broke an 8-week losing run.

JKM LNG as priced in Yen has soared 21% in the past 2 weeks.

Cocoa has climbed 50% in the past 4 weeks.

And Lithium Carbonate and Hydroxide are making ‘good shapes’.

Currencies were active.

The Aussie, Loonie and the British Pound were stronger.

CAD/USD rose and snapped its 5-week losing streak.

While the Euro, Swissie and Yen were weaker.

USD was mixed.

And COP/USD hasn’t fallen for 8 straight weeks.     

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Bloomberg Commodity Index 3.1%, Brent Crude 5.9%, Baltic Dry Index 8.4%, Cocoa 20.4% WTI Crude 4%, Cotton 5.7%, Copper 1.8%, Heating Oil 11.7%, JKM LNG 2.7%, Arabica Coffee 11%, JKM LNG in Yen 11.7%, Nickel 1.9%, Gasoline 2.3%, Robusta Coffee 3.7%, Sugar 2.1%, S&P GSCI 2.9%, CRB Index 3.7%, Dutch TTF Gas 10.5%, U.S. Gulf Urea 4.2%, Gasoil 9.5%, Corn 3.9%, Oats 6.4%, Rice 4.3%, Soybeans 3.8%, Wheat 6.8%, KBW Banks 1.7%, EGX 3.5%, HSCEI 4.4%, Hang Seng 3.5%, BOVESPA 2.2%, Nasdaq Composite 1.7%, Nasdaq 100 1.7%, PSE 1.6%, SOX 2.7%, IGPA 1.9%, STI 4.3%, WIG 2.2% and the ASX Financials rose 2%.

The group of largest decliners for the week included; 

Australian Coking Coal (1.7%), Richards Bay Coal (1.9%), Rotterdam Coal (4.2%), Cattle (1.7%), Lithium Carbonate (3.4%), Natural Gas (8%), Orange Juice (16.7%), Silver in AUD (4.3%), Silver in USD (4.1%), Gold in AUD (1.5%), Gold in CAD (1.6%), Gold in GBP (1.7%), All World Developed ex USA (1.7%), CAC (2%), DAX (2.8%), IBB (1.9%), IBEX (2.4%), TAIEX (3.1%), KSE (1.7%), KOSPI (7.6%), NBI (1.8%), Nikkei 225 (1.7%), Copenhagen (1.5%), Helsinki (1.5%), Stockholm (2.1%), PSI (2.5%), Eurostoxx 50 (2.2%), TA35 (1.7%), FTSE 100 (1.7%), Vietnam (1.8%) and the ASX Materials fell 4.4%.

July 12, 2026

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au