Macro Extremes (week ending June 26, 2026)
June 28, 2026 Leave a comment
A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.
The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.
n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.
* denotes multiple week inclusion
Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
Indonesian 10-year government bond yields
U.S 3-month bill yield *
Cocoa
COP/USD *
USD/SEK
CSI 300 Index
IBB & NBI biotech ETF’s
Overbought (RSI > 70)
Copper/Gold Ratio *
USD/IDR *
Austria’s ATX Index *
Hungary’s BUX Index
Spain’s IBEX *
S&P 600 Small Cap
Russell 2000
Taiwan’s TAIEX *
South Korea’s KOSPI *
Nikkei 225 *
And the SOX *
The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)
Russian 10-year government bond yields *
Singapore’s Strait Times *
XBI biotech ETF *
Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
U.S. 5-year breakeven inflation rate *
Nickel *
Orange Juice *
Platinum
Silver
CAD/USD *
MYR/USD *
Oversold (RSI < 30)
U.S. 10-year minus U.S. 5-year bond yield spread *
U.S. 10-year bond yield minus U.S. inflation rate *
North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel *
Lean Hogs *
The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)
U.S. 10-year minus U.S. 2-year bond yield spread *
HSCEI Index *
Hang Seng Index *
Russia MOEX Index *
Notes & Ideas:
Government bond yields fell.
Japan’s 10-year yield left overbought territory.
Türkiye’s 10-year bond yield and the U.S. 10-year inflation breakeven rate have declined for 5 weeks.
The U.S. 5-year inflation breakeven rates have fallen for 6 weeks.
And Russia’s 10-year bond yield has climbed for 9 weeks sending yields to 16.4%.
Equities were mostly weaker.
The better performers were U.S. biotech’s, small caps and banks along with Brazil and Switzerland’s SMI.
Dubai’s DFM Index snapped its 4-week winning streak.
CAC fell and broke its 5 weeks of advance.
The Hang Seng has fallen for 7 weeks.
Commodities had a bias for weakness, again.
Cocoa, Coffee, Rice and Sugar were the notable gainers.
Coal, Oil, Gases, Distillates, Precious Metals, Oats, Base Metals and Urea were amongst the decliners.
Brent Crude has sunk 24%% in the past 3 weeks.
Cocoa has soared 30% over the past fortnight.
Baltic Dry Index and Nickel have fallen for 4 weeks.
Lumber snapped its 4-week winning run.
Bloomberg Commodity Index, S&P GSCI, CRB Index and Lean Hogs have fallen for 6 weeks.
Last week, Singapore traded Iron Ore broke 6 weeks of consecutive decline.
This week CFR Chinese Iron Ore extended its weekly decline to 7.
Gold priced in AUD and ZAR have declined for 7 weeks.
Gold priced in CHF, CAD, EUR & GBP have fallen for 4 weeks.
Platinum and Middel Eastern Urea prices have declined for 8 weeks.
The latter completed a notable mean reversion.
And U.S. Gulf Urea prices are in a 10-week losing streak.
Currencies were quiet, again.
The Aussie was weaker.
AUD/IDR, AUD/THB, CAD/USD and USD/CHF are in 4 week losing streaks.
CAD was firmer.
While the Euro and Pound Sterling were weaker.
And COP/USD saw its 5 weeks of advance ended.
The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;
Cocoa 20%, Arabica Coffee 2%, Natural Gas 3%, Robusta Coffee 2.5%, Sugar 2.5%, Rice 8.3%, KBW Banks 1.5%, BUX 1.6%, IBB 7.9%, Bovespa 3%, S&P Small Caps 2.9%, KRE Regional Banks 4.8%, NBI 7.6%, SMI 2.9%, Nasdaq Transports 2.5%, Vietnam 2.6% and the XBI biotech ETF soared 10.4%.
The group of largest decliners for the week included;
Richards Bay Coal (1.6%), Aluminium (2.1%), Bloomberg Commodity Index (3.1%), Brent Crude (9.8%), Baltic Dry Index (7.3%), WTI Crude (8.7%), Cotton (4.1%), Palm Oil (1.7%), Gold (3.5%), Copper (3.8%), Lumber (2.4%), Lithium Carbonate (2.4%), Lithium Hydroxide (1.7%), Tin (9.2%), Newcastle Coal (4%), Orange Juice (7.8%), Palladium (5.3%), Platinum (4.4%), Gasoline (2.4%), Silver (10.7%), S&P GSCI (4%), CRB Index (2.7%), Urea U.S. Gulf (2.4%), Gasoil (2.6%), Urea Middle East (9.1%), Silver in USD (8.8%), Gold in USD (3.1%), Oats (6.9%), Wheat (4%), Shanghai Composite (1.6%), CSI 300 (1.5%), All World Developed ex USA (1.7%), AEX (1.6%), ATX (1.9%), DFM (2.4%), EGX (2.2%), FCATC (2.5%), Saudi Tadawul (2%), MIB (3%), HSCEI (6.5%), Hang Seng (5.2%), IDX (4%), TAIEX (4.1%), Helsinki (1.5%), SA40 (2.3%), SET (1.9%), SOX (7.9%), TA35 (2.8%), WIG (2.7%), ASX Materials (4.1%), BIST (3.1%), ASX Small Caps and the S&P 500 fell 2%.
June 28, 2026
By Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
rob zdravevski's blog 