A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.
The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.
n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.
* denotes multiple week inclusion
Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
10-year Chilean government bond yields.
30-year Japanese government bond yields.
Palm Oil
Overbought (RSI > 70)
2-year Australian, Chilean, German, Italian and Japanese government bond yields
5 & 10-year Japanese bond yields
Australian Coking Coal
Bloomberg Commodity Index *
Brent Crude Oil *
WTI Crude Oil *
Heating Oil *
U.S. Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel
JKM LNG in USD *
LME Aluminium
Gasoline *
S&P GSCI Index *
CRB Index *
Urea (U.S, Gulf and Middle East) *
CNH/USD
BOVESPA
AUD/INR *
OBX *
S&P Biotech’s
The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)
10-year Indian government bond yields
Gasoil *
Rubber
Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
PHP/USD *
KRW/USD *
HSCEI *
Hang Seng *
Oversold (RSI < 30)
Australian 10-year minus Aussie 2-year bond yield spread *
Cocoa *
NZD/AUD *
SENSEX *
The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)
NIFTY *
Notes & Ideas:
Government bond yields fell,
This week’s list has much less entrants than lasts.
Most issues saw their 4 weeks of consecutive higher yields snapped, with the exception of Indian 10’s and Japanese 10’s.
The latter’s yield is in a 5 week rising streak.
And the U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 5 year bond yield spread is approaching oversold.
Equities bounced.
Nearly every losing streak appearing in last week’s edition was snapped.
The exceptions include, China’s FCTAC has declined for 7 weeks, the NIFTY, SENSEX and ASX Financials have fallen for 6 weeks and the Nikkei 225 has declined for 5 weeks.
India’s SENSEX is at its lowest close since early April 2025 and completed a notable mean reversion.
The FTSE Saudi and Tadawul indices have risen for 5 weeks.
Inversely, Norway’s OBX has risen for 10 weeks.
Commodities were mixed with a positive bias.
Oils, Distillates, Aluminium, Rubber, Precious Metals, Tin and Orange Juice were the notable gainers.
Coal, Gases, Steel, Coffee and Sugar were amongst the decliners.
Many coal contracts left overbought territory.
Australian Coking Coal and Cotton have risen for 4 weeks.
WTI Crude, CRB Index, Gasoil and Middle Eastern Urea have closed higher for 7 weeks straight.
Lean Hogs have declined for 4 straight weeks.
Sugar #16 fell and broke a 7-week winning streak.
Palladium and Platinum rose and snapped their 4 weeks of decline.
Rubber is overbought.
And U,S. Gulf Urea prices have risen for 17 consecutive weeks.
Currencies were quiet.
The Aussie rose except against the INR and ZAR.
The CAD fell and versus the USD, it sees a 4-week losing streak.
The British Pound was weaker.
COP/USD has risen for 4 weeks, as has the EUR/CHF.
The Yen was slightly firmer.
The Euro was mixed and muted.
The Thai Baht rose and snapped a 4 week losing streak against the USD.
The USD fell against the Indian Rupee to end 6 weeks of gains.
Inversely, the USD/ZAR fell to break its 4-week winning streak.
The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;
Aluminium 6.6%, Brent Crude Oil 3.5%, Baltic Dry Index 1.7%, Cocoa 2.5%, WTI Crude Oil 4.1%, Cotton 2.1%, Palm Oil 3.9%, Copper 1.6%, Heating Oil 3%, Cattle 3.1%, Tin 7.4%, Orange Juice 12.9%, Palladium 7.2%, Platinum 5.1%, Gasoline 3%, S&P GSCI 4.4%, Rubber 4.7%, CRB Index 3.3%, Gasoil 7.9%, Silver in AUD 4.1%, Silver in USD 4.7%, Gold in AUD 3.5%, Gold in CAD 4.3%, Gold in CHF 4.1%, Gold in Euro 3.8%, Gold in GBP 4.4%, Gold in USD 4.1%, All World Developed ex USA 2.3%, AEX 1.8%, ATX 3.5%, KBW Banks 5.2%, BUX 1.9%, CAC 3.4%, DAX 3.9%, DJ Industrials 3%, DJ Transports 5%, MIB 5.2%, IBB 5.6%, IBEX 4.5%, BOVESPA 3.6%, S&P Small Cap 600 3%, Russell 2000 3.4%, Nasdaq Composite 4.4%, KRE Regional Banks 4.2%, KSE 2.5%, FTSE 250 3.2%, S&P MidCap 400 3.1%, Mexico 4.5%, Nasdaq Biotechs 4%, OBX 3.6%, Copenhagen 4.4%, Helsinki 3.8%, Stockholm 3.6%, PX 2.1%, SA40 4.2%, SMI 3.3%, SOX 5%, IGPA 2.9%, S&P 500 3.4%, Nasdaq Transports 4.1%, TSX 3.6%, FTSE 100 4.7%, Vietnam 1.7%, WIG 4.9%, S&P Biotechs 7.8%, ASX Materials 3.4%, FTSE Saudi 1.6%, PSI 5.3% and Eurostoxx 50 rose 3.4%.
The group of largest decliners from the week included;
Richards Bay Coal (3.5%), Rotterdam Coal (7.9%), North European Hot Rolled Steel (2.2%), JKM LNG (2.1%), Arabica Coffee (2.1%), JKM LNG in Yen (13.3%), Newcastle Coal (6%), Natural Gas (7.4%), Robusta Coffee (4%), Sugar (4.8%), Dutch TTF Gas (8.8%), Corn (2.1%), FCATC (2.1%), TAIEX (1.6%) and the KOSPI fell 3.8%.
April 5, 2026
By Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
rob zdravevski's blog 