rob zdravevski's blog

The Datadog show

Not withstanding last night’s 19% decline following Datadog’s Q2 earnings report, a new upside extreme in Datadog’s price was seen 2 months ago, suggesting that the ‘fat part’ of the trade had been seen.

See below, my Feb 2026 note.

Datadog’s daily noise isn’t the main show

In other words, you had no business making a new long bet at those levels.

My re-entry target is $146.

Inversely, it’s a shorting opportunity, as well.

August 7, 2026

rob@karriasset.com.au

Technogym should retrace

Whilst I love the product, I expect Technogym’s (TGYM IM) stock price to eventually retrace all of its previous 300% advance.

Earlier today, UBS raised its rating on the stock from Neutral to Buy with a target price of € 21.30.

My target is € 8.05

August 6, 2026

rob@karriasset.com.au

Diesel crack spread to halve

Here is a monthly chart of the Gasoil (diesel) crack spread.

Why is it different this time?

It won’t be.

August 6, 2026

rob@karriasset.com.au

Iron Ore is entering my strike zone

The financial media and market pundits continue to simply report the news.

Today, they are telling me nothing new.

For example, Iron Ore prices are seeing 13 month or 22 month lows, depending who you are reading.

So, there is the news but no interpretation or opinion.

My attached study cryptically says, follow the circles…..

August 4, 2026

Ya gotta bank it

For the month of July 2026, SpaceX fell 36% and Accenture rose 33%.

You’ll see it implied within my comment exchange in this link of the original post.

https://lnkd.in/grk3UfuK

This pair trade has now been closed out.

August 4, 2026

rob@karriasset.com.au

Macro Extremes (week ending July 31, 2026)

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Australian 10 year minus 2-year bond yield spread

Australian 10 year minus 5-year bond yield spread

TBT *

U.S. 20 and 30-year bond yields

Arabica Coffee

AUD/CHF

CAD/CHF

EUR/CHF

PX Index

ASX 200 Index

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Copper/Gold Ratio *

Indonesian and Japanese 10-year bond yields

U.S. 5 year minus 5-year breakeven inflation rate spread *

U.S. 10 year minus 10-year breakeven inflation rate spread *

North European Rolled Steel *

U.S. Midwest Hot Rolled Coiled Steel *

Gasoil Heating Oil Crack Spread

Chinese RMB

USD/IDR

Hungary’s BUX Index *

Singapore’s Strait Times Index *

And Poland’s WIG Index

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Japanese 2-year bond yield *

COP/USD *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

TLT

Australian Coking Coal

Lean Hogs *

Lithium Hydroxide *

CAD/JPY

CHF/JPY

EUR/JPY

USD/KRW

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

Iron Ore (SGX and China CFR)

USD/CNH

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

None

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields rose, again…again!

Austrian, Belgian, Canadian, Danish, Spanish, German, Finnish, French, British, Italian, Dutch, Portuguese and Swedish 10-year bond yields.

Also, in a 5-week rising streak are British, German and U.S. 20’s and 30’s.

Many shorter dated (2’s and 5’s) yields fell.

Aussie 10 year minus U.S. 10-year bond yield spread performed a bearish outside reversal.

Aussie yields along with Chinese, Korean, Norwegian, Kiwi and Turkish 10-year yields fell and broke their 4 weeks of decline.

And the U.S. 3-month bill is no longer overbought.

Equities were quieter.

HSCEI, the Hang Seng, Singapore’s Strait Times and Australia’s Financials Index have risen for 5 weeks.

The former has risen 16% over that time.

The latter has risen for 7 of the past 8 weeks.

The Nasdaq biotech index and Türkiye’s BIST have declined for 4 consecutive weeks.  

South Korea’s KOSPI has fallen for 6 weeks.

Commodities prices were mixed, with a bias for weakness.

Coffee, Steel, Platinum, Urea and Gasoil were the notable gainers.

Coal, Crude Oil, Hogs, Gases Lithium and Lumber were amongst the largest decliners.

The Copper/Gold Ratio and Urea have risen for 4 weeks.

Tin and Gasoil have climbed for 5 weeks.

While North European Hot Coiled Steel and Gasoil crack spreads have risen for 6 weeks.

The latter soared 24% in the past week alone.

JKM LNG as priced in Yen and Gasoline declined and snapped their 4-week winning streaks.

Cattle prices rose and snapped a 5-week losing streak.

JKM and Dutch TTF Gas fell and broke 5 weeks of advance.

Australian Coking Coal & Natural Gas have fallen for 5 weeks.

Lithium Carbonate and Hydroxide have sunk for 7 weeks.

Currencies were active.

The Aussie was weaker except against the USD where it has risen for 5 consecutive weeks.

The Loonie was lower.

Euro was firmer and the British Pound was mixed.

The Yen was notably higher while the USD was weaker.

EUR/AUD and JPY/AUD rose to snap a 4-week decline.

While the pairs of USD/CNH, USD/KRW and USD/SGD have fallen for 5 straight weeks.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Cotton 2.3%, Copper 1.7%, Arabica Coffee 5.8%, Cattel 2.1%, Rotterdam Coal 1.5%, North European Steel 2.1%, U.S. Midwest Steel 3%, Orange Juice 9.3%, Palladium 2.2%, Platinum 3.4%, Tin 2.5%, Urea 4.6%, Gasoil 6.8%, Gasoil crack spread 24.1%, All World Developed ex USA 1.9%, BUX 2.2%, CAC 1.6%, DAX 2.1%, HSCEI 4.1%, Hang Seng 3.7%, Bovespa 2.3%, MOEX 2.8%, Nasdaq Composite 1.6%, KLSE 1.4%, KSE 3%, NIFTY 2.6%, Stockholm 1.5%, PX 1.9%, SA40 1.8%, Sensex 2.7%, S&P 500 1.1%, VN Index 3%, WIG 2.7%, ASX Financials 1.6%, ASX 200 2.3%, ASM Materials 2% and the ASX Industrials rose1.6%.

The group of largest decliners for the week included; 

Australian Coking Coal (6.1%), Aluminium 2.5%, Bloomberg Commodity Index (2.1%), Brent Crude (9.1%), WTI Crude (5.1%), DXY (1.6%), Palm Oil (1.7%), Iron Ore (1.8%), Lean Hogs (4.7%), JKM (2.5%), Lumber (6.2%), JKM in Yen (6.8%), Lithium Hydroxide (7.8%), Newcastle Coal (1.4%), Natural Gas (4.3%), Lithium Carbonate (5.7%), Gasoline (4.2%), Sugar #16 (2.1%), S&P GSCI (2.1%), China CFR Iron Ore (3.4%), CRB Index (2.7%), Dutch TTF Gas (7.1%), Gold in CHF and EUR (1.6%), Corn (5.1%), Oats (3.6%), Soybean (5.3%), Wheat (5.7%), DJ Transports (6.4%), FTSE Saudi (2%), SET (1.3%), SOX (4.3%), TA35 (2.4%), Nasdaq Transports (4.4%), BIST (3.5%) and XBI biotech ETF fell 2.3%.

August 2, 2026

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au

Staying Short on the KOSPI

In a further update of my read of the Kospi Index…..

More downside for the KOSPI ahead

not withstanding the bounce or reversals seen last week,

this current move should see the Kospi come back to the 4,700 region,

from its current price of 6,595.

August 1, 2026

rob@karriasset.com.au

Shorting may seem easy

That gravitational pull for the prices of semiconductor and memory securities remains omnipresent, but the current (interim) decline should pause quite soon.

In Intel’s case, $68.30 could be seen quickly in the coming week or so (from its current $81.88), but the main damage of the first wave’s decline has been seen.

New “shorter’s” entering at current prices may be hurt on a bounce.

At that stage, you can queue up those ‘buying the dip’.

While, I still think Intel’s will eventually trade down to the $44 mark.

It’s going to be a cruel summer for some.

July 30, 2026

rob@karriasset.com.au

How did equities trade….

…….when we saw a story of a strong Aussie Dollar, a weak Yen and an extreme in appetite for risk?

July 24, 2026