rob zdravevski's blog

Macro Extremes (week ending July 10, 2026)

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

U.S 3-month bill yield *

Cocoa *

Arabica & Robusta Coffee

GBP/JPY

IBB & NBI biotech ETF’s *

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Copper/Gold Ratio *

U.S. 5 year minus 5 year breakeven inflation rate spread

USD/IDR *

KBW Banks Index

Hungary’s BUX Index

Dow Jones Industrial Index

Taiwan’s TAIEX *

Nikkei 225 *

Thailand’s SET Index

And Poland’s WIG Index

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

COP/USD *

Singapore’s Strait Times *

XBI biotech ETF *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

EUR/GBP *

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

None

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

None

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields rose, again.

Except for the Japanese 10’s and 30’s, which fell and departed overbought territory.

Italy’s 10’s followed on higher, from last week’s outside bullish reversal.

Polish and Czech 10-year yields rose to break a 4-week trend.

The Indian 10-year yield rose and brought 6 weeks of decline to an end.

And Russia’s 10-year bond yield fell to snap 9 weeks of higher yields and are no longer overbought.

Equities were mixed and subdued with a slight bias for higher prices.

Mexico’s IPC Index has fallen for 4 weeks.

The BUX, DJ Industrials, SMI, IBEX along with the IBB and NBI U.S. biotech ETF’s fell and broke their 4-week winning streak.

The SOX, Russell 2000, S&P 600 Smalls and a few others dropped out of overbought territory.

Korea’s KOSPI has slumped 18% over the past 3 weeks.

While the HSCEI Index has risen 7% in a fortnight.

Commodities activity increased.

Oils, Gases, Distillates, Shipping Rates, Cocoa, Coffee, Oats, Corn & Wheat were the notable gainers.

Coal, Orange Juice, Lithium, Gold and Silver were amongst the decliners.

Aluminium rose and broke a 4-week losing streak.

Oats have risen for 4 weeks.

Inversely, Shanghai Rebar prices have fallen for 4 weeks.

Coffee is in a 5-week winning streak, with Arabica soaring 33% over that time.

While Nickel, Brent Crude and WTI Crude snapped 5 weeks of decline.

Middle Eastern and U.S. Gulf Urea prices rose and snapped their respective 9- and 11-week losing streaks.
Platinum also rose and broke an 8-week losing run.

JKM LNG as priced in Yen has soared 21% in the past 2 weeks.

Cocoa has climbed 50% in the past 4 weeks.

And Lithium Carbonate and Hydroxide are making ‘good shapes’.

Currencies were active.

The Aussie, Loonie and the British Pound were stronger.

CAD/USD rose and snapped its 5-week losing streak.

While the Euro, Swissie and Yen were weaker.

USD was mixed.

And COP/USD hasn’t fallen for 8 straight weeks.     

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Bloomberg Commodity Index 3.1%, Brent Crude 5.9%, Baltic Dry Index 8.4%, Cocoa 20.4% WTI Crude 4%, Cotton 5.7%, Copper 1.8%, Heating Oil 11.7%, JKM LNG 2.7%, Arabica Coffee 11%, JKM LNG in Yen 11.7%, Nickel 1.9%, Gasoline 2.3%, Robusta Coffee 3.7%, Sugar 2.1%, S&P GSCI 2.9%, CRB Index 3.7%, Dutch TTF Gas 10.5%, U.S. Gulf Urea 4.2%, Gasoil 9.5%, Corn 3.9%, Oats 6.4%, Rice 4.3%, Soybeans 3.8%, Wheat 6.8%, KBW Banks 1.7%, EGX 3.5%, HSCEI 4.4%, Hang Seng 3.5%, BOVESPA 2.2%, Nasdaq Composite 1.7%, Nasdaq 100 1.7%, PSE 1.6%, SOX 2.7%, IGPA 1.9%, STI 4.3%, WIG 2.2% and the ASX Financials rose 2%.

The group of largest decliners for the week included; 

Australian Coking Coal (1.7%), Richards Bay Coal (1.9%), Rotterdam Coal (4.2%), Cattle (1.7%), Lithium Carbonate (3.4%), Natural Gas (8%), Orange Juice (16.7%), Silver in AUD (4.3%), Silver in USD (4.1%), Gold in AUD (1.5%), Gold in CAD (1.6%), Gold in GBP (1.7%), All World Developed ex USA (1.7%), CAC (2%), DAX (2.8%), IBB (1.9%), IBEX (2.4%), TAIEX (3.1%), KSE (1.7%), KOSPI (7.6%), NBI (1.8%), Nikkei 225 (1.7%), Copenhagen (1.5%), Helsinki (1.5%), Stockholm (2.1%), PSI (2.5%), Eurostoxx 50 (2.2%), TA35 (1.7%), FTSE 100 (1.7%), Vietnam (1.8%) and the ASX Materials fell 4.4%.

July 12, 2026

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au

Macro Extremes (week ending July 3, 2026)

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Indonesian 10-year government bond yields

U.S 3-month bill yield *

Cocoa *

Copenhagen’s OMX Index

IBB & NBI biotech ETF’s

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Copper/Gold Ratio *

USD/IDR *

Austria’s ATX Index *

Hungary’s BUX Index

Spain’s IBEX *

S&P 600 Small Cap

Russell 2000

Taiwan’s TAIEX *

South Korea’s KOSPI *

Nikkei 225 *

And the SOX *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Russian 10-year government bond yields *

COP/USD *

IBB, XBI & NBI biotech ETF’s *

Singapore’s Strait Times *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Nickel *

EUR/GBP

HSCEI Index *

Hang Seng Index *

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

None

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

None

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields rose and were full of action.

Including U.S. Corporate 5–7-year yields.

While Indian 10’s and Japanese 2’s fell.

The U.S. High Yield Index is showing early signs of a new upward trend.

Japan’s 10-year yield returned to overbought territory.

British 2-year yields mean reverted.

Italy’s 10’s had an outside bullish reversal week.

Polish 10-year yields have fallen for 4 consecutive weeks.

Türkiye’s 10-year bond yield and the U.S. 10-year (and 5-year) inflation breakeven rate rose and snapped 5 weeks of decline.

And Russia’s 10-year bond yield has climbed for 9 weeks sending yields to 16.7%.

Equities were subdued compared to recent weeks.

The BUX, DJ Industrials, SMI, IBEX along with the IBB and NBI U.S. biotech ETF’s have risen for 4 weeks.

The latter has risen 15% over that time.

Whilst remaining the overbought camp, South Korea’s KOSPI has slumped 11% in the past fortnight.

And the Hang Seng rose to break its 7-week losing streak.

Commodities were quieter.

Coal, Shipping Rates, LNG, Lithium, Silver and Oats were the notable gainers.

Cattle, Aluminium, Urea and Rice were amongst the decliners.

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel and Lean Hogs are no longer oversold.

Coffee is in a 4-week winning streak.

Inversely, the Copper/Gold Ratio has weakened for the past 4 weeks.

While Brent Crude has declined for 5 weeks.

Nickel have fallen for 5 weeks, falling 16% over that time.

Middle Eastern Urea prices have declined for 9 weeks while U.S. Gulf Urea prices are in a 11-week losing streak.

All other streaks not listed in this week’s edition have been broken.

And Lithium Carbonate and Hydroxide are making ‘good shapes’.

Currencies were active.

The Aussie and the Euro were mixed.

The AUD/EUR and AUD/GBP mean reverted.

The Loonie was weaker.

The Swissie was stronger and as such the CHF/USD rose and broke 4 weeks of decline.

Pound Sterling was firmer.

And USD/CAD is in a 5-week winning streak.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Richards Bay Coal 5.6%, Rotterdam Coal 8.1%, Baltic Dry Index 7.7%, Lean Hogs 2.3%, Heating Oil 2.3%, JKM LNG 3.6%, Arabica Coffee 10.3%, JKM LNG in Yen 10.3%, Lithium Carbonate 5.8%, Lithium Hydroxide 6.9%, Newcastle Coal 3%, Natural Gas 1.5%, Orange Juice 15.1%, Robusta Coffee 2.5%, Sugar 2.6%, Gold 1.3%, Tin 3.9%, Gasoil 7.1%, Silver in AUD 4.8%, Silver in USD 5.4%, Oats 6.1%, Wheat 1.7%, All World Developed ex USA 1.8%, AEX 2.1%, AEX 2.5%, BUX 2.4%, CAC 1.5%, DAX 4.5%, DJ Industrials 2%, FCATC 1.5%, MIB 3%, HSCEI 3.2%, Hang Seng 3%, IBB 4,5%, IBEX 2.2%, TAIEX 5%, Nasdaq Composite 2.1%, KSE 3.2%, FTSE 250 1.7%, OBX 2.3%, Copenhagen 5.5%, Helsinki 2%, Stockholm 3%, PSE 1.9%, PSI 2.2%, PX 2.1%, SET 4.5%, SMI 1.8%, S&P 500 1.8%, Eurostoxx 50 3.1%, TA35 2.4%, FTSE 100 1.6%, WIG 3%, XBI 3.3%, ASX Financials 1.7% and the ASX Materials rose 2.1%.

The group of largest decliners for the week included; 

Palm Oil (1.9%), Cattle (2.7%), Aluminium (2.8%), Nickel (1.8%), U.S. Gulf Urea (3.2%), Rice (2.5%), China A50 (2.4%), EGX (1.8%), KOSPI (3.8%) and the SOX Index fell 4.4%.

July 5, 2026

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au

Reading the Nickel price

Nickel rallies well up its various extremes and now it’s nearing an entry point.

July 4, 2026

rob@karriasset.com.au

Some equity indices are unloved

The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index will appear in tomorrows edition of Marco Extremes.

July 4, 2026

rob@karriasset.com.au

Hydrocarbon prices still have lower travel

Diesel prices should decline commensurately with Crude Oil prices

June 23, 2026

’til the cows come home

Times when you should sell a little more of your cattle herd than usual

June 23, 2026

Reviewing calls, 1 year on

On this day, 1 year ago, I published a newsletter (link below) which included a bunch of price charts and were implied the direction of assets or securities featured.

https://mailchi.mp/karriasset/taking-the-markets-temperature-june-25

I say ‘implied’ because the more direct suggestions and price entries were

reserved for clients.

The major point that I made was that I didn’t see any structural problems in the equity markets.

I followed on by predicting the air being let out of certain markets, which

occurred in equity indices such as the DAX.

And in the section titled,

“Making money in any type of market conditions”,…….

the Dow Jones Transports, Healthcare ETF, Palladium, Nickel, Thailand’s SET and China’s CSI 300 Index rose somewhere between 30% – 100% in the 12 months since that note was published.

June 20, 2026

Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Gold price update

The retracement in USD Gold seems to be done for now.

Not withstanding an interim rally…….

I see USD Gold eventually trading down to somewhere near the US$3,100 mark (+/- $200)

June 19, 2026