rob zdravevski's blog

Gold price update

The retracement in USD Gold seems to be done for now.

Not withstanding an interim rally…….

I see USD Gold eventually trading down to somewhere near the US$3,100 mark (+/- $200)

June 19, 2026

U.S. Mortgage Rates should move higher

Not withstanding any small, near-term decline…..my reading of the tape sees the U.S. 30 year mortgage moving to the 7.25% region.

June 19, 2026

rob@karriasset.com.au

but watch corporate bond yields and spreads

An early signal of credit stress which also portends a stifling (or peak) in the equity market is when the U.S. 5-7 year corporate bond yield crosses above its 4 year mean.

June 18, 2026

rob@karriasset.com.au

Bond volatility is not suggesting stress

I’m not seeing any stress in the credit markets and so, the equity bull market remains intact.

June 18, 2026

rob@karriasset.com.au

Oil’s Ain’t Oil’s

The attached graphic points to the dates when I posted notes warning of a peak in oil prices and to expect them to move lower.

Links to those noted are also included below.

The March 23rd note says that with WTI Crude trading at $99, that I was expecting it to fall $30 rather than rise $30.

Incidentally, the stock prices of many Oil companies peaked between March 23rd – 30th.

Today’s price of $74, isn’t far from completing that $30 decline.

The signals told me not to buy Oil and instead short it, while the noise was telling many others something quite the opposite.

I think seeing $59 remains possible.

June 18, 2026

rob@karriasset.com.au

Enjoy lower UK inflation while you can

My read of U.K. inflation rate is expecting it to ease from its current 2.8% down to the 2.3% – 2.4% level before making its way towards 5% over the next 18 months.

June 17, 2026

Defence stocks taking a breather

The defence and military stock euphoria of the past year is waning.

It’ll be perfectly natural for stocks in that industry to mean (revert) converge.

Here is how SAAB’s stock price is looking.

June 16, 2026

Latest newsletter summarises my inflation playbook

Aussie inflation looking like American inflation

The Australian inflation rate is making similar ‘shapes’ that I’m seeing in the U.S.

June 16, 2026