rob zdravevski's blog

Macro Extreme (week ending April 17, 2026)

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Cattle

COP/USD

EUR/JPY

GBP/JPY

Italy’s MIB Index

Russell 2000

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

2, 5 & 10-year Japanese bond yields

North American Hot Rolled Coiled Steel

Aluminium

Urea

AUD/CAD *

AUD/EUR

AUD/GBP

AUD/IDR *

AUD/JPY *

AUD/SGD

BRL/USD

CNH/USD *

USD/IDR

ATX Index

BUX Index

BOVESPA

CAC 40 Index

Egypt’s EGX Index

TAIEX *

OBX *

And Finland’s OMX

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Cotton *

Dow Jones Transports

Nasdaq Small Cap 700 Index

Philadelphia’s SOX Index *

XBI Biotech ETF *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Chinese 10 year government bond

U.S. 10-year minus German 10-year bond yield spread *

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

Australian 10-year minus Aussie 2-year bond yield spread *

Cocoa *

CAD/AUD

CHF/AUD

GBP/AUD

JPY/AUD *

NZD/AUD *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

None

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields fell, again.

The last of the bond yields dropped off the overbought list.

The Australian 5 year bond yield has fallen for 4 weeks as have British 2’s, 3’s, 5’s and 10’s.

While, the Australian 10-2 year bond yield spread moved out of oversold territory.

The Japanese 10’s broke their 6 weeks of climbing yield.

And the U.S. 10 year minus U.S. inflation rate spread is nearly oversold.

Equities had a another terrific week.

Many more equity indices joined the overbought club.

The ATX, CAC, MIOB, IBEX, S&P Small Cap 600, ISEQ, Russell 2000, KRE, OMX-C, SA40, SET, IGPA, Nasdaq Transports, TSX, VN Index, FTSE 100, WIG and the ASX Small Caps and the Materials are in a 4 week winning streak.

Thailand’s SET Index fell and snapped its 4 weeks of advance.

The Tadawul index have risen for 7 weeks.

Dubai’s DFM index has climbed 9% over the past fortnight.

Over the past 3 weeks, the XBI biotech’s, the Nasdaq Composite and the SOX Index have risen 15%, 16% and 26% respectively.

Commodities were mixed.

Shipping Rates, Cotton, Copper, Silver, Urea and Tin were the notable gainers.

Coal, Gases, Distillates, Orange Juice and Hogs were amongst the decliners.

The remaining energy contracts left overbought territory.

WTI Crude Oil has fallen 24.5% over the past fortnight.

Heating Oil has declined 22%.

Richards Bay rose to snap its 5 week losing streak, while Rotterdam Coal have fallen for 6 weeks.

Cotton and Cattle have risen for 6 weeks, with the former rising 20% over that time.

North European Hot Rolled Steel, JKM LNG, Newcastle Coal, Dutch TTF have declined for 4 straight weeks.

Copper, Uranium, Silver and Gold are in 4 week winning streaks.

Middle Eastern Urea have closed higher for 9 weeks straight.

And U,S. Gulf Urea prices have risen for 19 consecutive weeks.

Currencies were little quieter.

The Aussie rose again which is commensurate with the risk-on sentiment seen in equities.

The CAD mixed as the CAD/EUR rose and broke its 4 weeks of decline.

The Euro eased.

BRL/USD has climbed for 5 weeks.

EUR/CHF fell and broke a 5 week winning run.

And the USD was weaker as the USD/CLP fell for the 4^th week and the USD/COP sunk for the 6^th week.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Aluminium 2.9%, Baltic Dry Index 16.6%, Cotton 5.7%, Copper 3.9%, Lithium Carbonate 1.7%, Lithium Hydroxide 5.1%, Tin 5.3%, Palladium 3.9%, Platinum 3.7%, Robusta Coffee 1.9%, Tin 5.7%, Urea Middle East 6.9%, Uranium 1.9%, Silver in AUD 4.9%, Silver in USD 6.4%, Gold in AUD 1.9%, Corn 1.8%, Rice 2.7%, Wheat 3.5%, Shanghai Composite 1.6%, CSI 300 2%, All World Developed ex USA 2.5%, ATX 2.5%, KBW Banks 2.4%, BUX 4.5%, CAC 2%, China A50 3.2%, IDX 2.4%, DAX 3.8%, DFM 4.8%, DJ Industrials 3.1%, DJ Transports 10.2%, EGX 4.8%, FCATC 4.5%, MIB 2.7%, HSCEI 2.2%, IBB 4.3%, IBEX 1.5%, IDX 4%, S&P Small Caps 600 4%, Dublin 1.9%, Russell 2000 5.5%, TAIEX 3.9%, Nasdaq Composite 6.8%, KRE Regional Banks 2.1%, KSE 4%, KOSPI 5.7%, FTSE 250 3.8%, S&P MidCap 400 3.5%, NBI 4.8%, Nasdaq 100 6.2%, Nikkei 225 2.7%, Copenhagen 1.8%, Helsinki 1.6%, Stockholm 2.3%, PX 1.8%, SA40 2%, SMI 1.9%, SOX 7.5%, IGPA 3.1%, S&P 500 4.5%, Eurostoxx 50 2.2%, Nasdaq Transports 4%, TSX 1.9%, Vietnam 3.8%, WIG 3%, XBI 7.1%, BIST 3.7%, ASX Materials 1.7% and the ASX Small Caps rose 1.6%.

The group of largest decliners for the week included; 

Rotterdam Coal (2.8%), Brent Crude Oil (5.1%), WTI Crude Oil (11.2%), Palm Oil (2.5%), Lean Hogs (2.6%), Heating Oil (8.5%), JKM LNG (8.7%), Arabica Coffee (3.9%), JKM LNG in Yen (6.3%), Newcastle Coal (5.7%), Orange Juice (5.8%), Sugar (3.2%), S&P GSCI (3.6%), CRB Index (1.8%), Dutch TTF Gas (11.2%), Gasoil (10.2%), OBX (3.7%), PSE (1.6%), Lisbon (3%), SET (1.6%), ASX Financials (2.1%) and the ASX Industrials fell 1.5%.

April 19, 2026

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au 

Locking in your Aussie Dollar term deposit

The circle in this price chart of the 2-year Australian government bond highlights a moment when the probability indicated an optimal time to either purchase these bonds or ‘fix’ a rate in your AUD term deposit.

It also suggests that it’s not an ideal to have locked in mortgage rates.

Did you bank or mortgage provider tell you this?

We should see this 2 year yield back at 3.8% in the coming months.

April 18, 2026

rob@karriasset.com.au

The signals in Indonesian bonds

In October 2025, my signals said Indonesian 10 year bonds were a sell.

Macro Extremes (week ending October 17, 2025)

Its yield was trading at 5.9% and registering at a host of my extreme measures.

During the week of March 23, 2026, when they were trading between 6.8% and 6.9%, the Indonesian 10’s were a buy.

Macro Extremes (week ending March 27, 2026)

And somewhere in between (around January 27, 2026), MSCI issued a significant warning about the investability and transparency of Indonesian stocks, which caused a major market rout.

April 18, 2026

rob@karriasset.com.au

It’s no time to buy Urea

My October and early November 2025 weekly editions of Macro Extremes listed Middle Eastern Urea prices as registering oversold readings.

Today…….I can’t understand why anyone would be a buyer.

Next Macro Extremes will be posted this Sunday.

April 17, 2026

rob@karriasset.com.au

U.S. PMI says economic expansion but it’s near an extreme

While the U.S. PMI Index looks to be in good shape, I’m monitoring the coming monthly reports and whether it reaches an extreme.

April 15, 2026
rob@karriasset.com.au

Consumer Confidence has never been this lousy

When consumer confidence collapses, buying equities isn’t simply contrarian……..it’s disciplined, calculated prudence.

On a nominal basis, since 1957, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index has never printed a lower reading.

The attached study highlights 11 notable instances over the past 45 years where the Index recorded a monthly RSI below 36, signifying periods of extreme pessimism. It also reinforces a recurring truth: equities have an ability to grind higher even as sentiment remains deeply negative.

In that context, today’s mood is not unprecedented, it’s actually quite familiar.

The Index is currently at the same level of “oversold” sentiment seen during:

* the inflation shock following the Russian invasion of Ukraine (2022)

* the COVID-19 pandemic (2020)

* the European sovereign debt crisis (2012)

* the Global Financial Crisis lows (2009)

* the aftermath of the September 11 attacks (2001)

* the Gulf War (1991)

and the Black Monday (1987)

In other words, sentiment is at extremes typically associated with periods of maximum uncertainty and more often than not, meaningful opportunity.

April 13, 2026

rob@karriasset.com.au

Macro Extremes (week ending April 10, 2026)

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

10-year Swiss and Indian government bond yields. *

U.S. 5 & 7 year government bond yields.

Cotton

XBI Biotech ETF

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

2-year Australian, German and Japanese government bond yields

5 & 10-year Japanese bond yields

Heating Oil *

JKM LNG in USD *

Gasoline *

CRB Index *

Gasoil

Urea (U.S, Gulf and Middle East) *

AUD/CAD

AUD/IDR

AUD/JPY

CNH/USD *

BUX Index

BOVESPA *

TAIEX

OBX *

Thailand’s SET

Tel Aviv 35 Index

And Poland’s WIG Index

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Philadelphia’s SOX Index

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

U.S. 10-year minus German 10-year bond yield spread *

U.S. 10-year minus U.S. 5-year bond yield spread *

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

Australian 10-year minus Aussie 2-year bond yield spread *

Cocoa *

JPY/AUD

NZD/AUD *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

None

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields fell, again.

A few more bond yields dropped off the list.

Also declining where U.S. corporate yields along with the MOVE Index and the U.S. 5 year inflation break-even spreads.

The Japanese 10’s have climbed for 6 weeks.

And the U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 5 year bond yield spread is now oversold.

Equities had a terrific week, recouping recent declines.

China’s FCTAC, the NIFTY, SENSEX, ASX Financials and the Nikkei 225 rose and snapped their losing streaks which spanned 5, 6 or 7 weeks.

Thailand’s SET Index has closed higher for 4 straight weeks.

The FTSE Saudi and Tadawul indices have risen for 6 weeks.

While Norway’s OBX fell and broke their 10 weeks of consecutive advance.

Commodities were mixed with a positive bias.

Cotton, Copper, Platinum, Urea and Silver were the notable gainers.

Coal, Gases, Distillates, Wheat, Corn and Sugar were amongst the decliners.

Many energy contracts left overbought territory.

Richards Bay and Rotterdam Coal have fallen for 8 weeks.

Cotton and Cattle have risen for 5 weeks.

Middle Eastern Urea have closed higher for 8 weeks straight.

Many other commodity contracts and indices such as WTI Crude, CRB Index and Gasoil fell and snapped 7 week winning streaks.

And U,S. Gulf Urea prices have risen for 18 consecutive weeks.

Currencies were busy.

The Aussie rose again which is commensurate with the risk-on sentiment seen in equities.

The CAD fell again with the CAD/EUR falling for 4 weeks.

The British Pound was mixed.

Euro was firmer.

BRL/USD and EUR/CAD have climbed for 4 weeks.

COP/USD and EUR/CHF have risen for 5 weeks.

And the USD was weaker.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Baltic Dry Index 6.5%, Cotton 3.2%, Copper 5.4%, Palladium 2.2%, Platinum 4.1%, Tin 3.3%, Middle East Urea 6%, Silver 4%, Gold in USD 1.5%, Shanghai 2.7%, CSI 300 4%, All World Developed ex USA 4.8%, AEX 3.5%, KBW Banks 5.6%, BUX 7.2%, CAC 3.7%, China A50 3.7%, IDX 6.1%, DAX 2.7%, DJ Industrials 3.1%, DJ Transports 6.6%, EGX 5.8%, FCATC 6.4%, MIB 4.4%, HSCEI 2.3%, Hang Seng 3.1%, IBEX 3.7%, BOVESPA 4.9%, S&P Small Cap 600 3.8%, Russell 2000 4%, TAIEX 8.7%, Nasdaq Composite 4.7%, KRE Regional Banks 4.5%, KSE 11.2%, KOSPI 9%, FTSE 250 3.3%, Nasdaq 100 4.5%, Nasdaq Composite 4.5%, Nikkei 225 7.2%, NIFTY 5.9%, Copenhagen 2.7%, Helsinki 3.6%, Stockholm 4.9%, PSE 1.7%, PX 4.5%, SA40 2.7%, SENSEX 5.8%, SET 3.6%, SMI 1.6%, SOX 13.5%, S&P 500 3.6%, IPSA 3.1%, TA35 6.1%, Nasdaq Transports 4.5%, TSX 1.8%, FTSE 100 1.6%, BIST 8.8%, DFM 4.2%, Vietnam 3.9%, WIG 4.5%, ASX Financials 6.6%, ASX 200 4.4%, ASX Materials 6.2%, ASX Industrials 2.6% and the ASX Small Caps rose 4.5%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

Australian Coking Coal (4.3%), Richards Bay Coal (4.2%), Rotterdam Coal (7.2%), Bloomberg Commodity Index (3.7%), Brent Crude Oil (12.7%), WTI Crude Oil (13.4%), Palm Oil (6.2%), Heating Oil (13.8%), JKM LNG (2.7%), Lumber (3.5%), LNG in Yen (6.7%), Newcastle Coal (6.8%), Natural Gas (5.4%), Gasoline (7.6%), Robusta (3.6%), Sugar (8.3%), S&P GSCI (8.7%), CRB Index (3.1%), Dutch TTF Gas (12.8%), Gasoil (12.9%), Gold in ZAR (1.8%), Corn (2.5%), Oats (3.8%), Rice (3.9%) and Wheat fell 4.6%.

April 12, 2026

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au 

Crude Oil is not making new highs

For those that like to freak out, extrapolate and not look at the numbers;

the June contract of WTI Crude Oil is not trading above the high seen 1 month ago, and it’s the same price as 3 weeks ago.

April 6, 2026

rob@karriasset.com.au

Macro Extremes (week ending April 3, 2026)

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

10-year Chilean government bond yields.

30-year Japanese government bond yields.

Palm Oil

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

2-year Australian, Chilean, German, Italian and Japanese government bond yields

5 & 10-year Japanese bond yields

Australian Coking Coal

Bloomberg Commodity Index *

Brent Crude Oil *

WTI Crude Oil *

Heating Oil *

U.S. Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel

JKM LNG in USD *

LME Aluminium

Gasoline *

S&P GSCI Index *

CRB Index *

Urea (U.S, Gulf and Middle East) *

CNH/USD

BOVESPA

AUD/INR *

OBX *

S&P Biotech’s

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

10-year Indian government bond yields

Gasoil *

Rubber

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

PHP/USD *

KRW/USD *

HSCEI *

Hang Seng *

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

Australian 10-year minus Aussie 2-year bond yield spread *

Cocoa *

NZD/AUD *

SENSEX *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

NIFTY *

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields fell,

This week’s list has much less entrants than lasts.

Most issues saw their 4 weeks of consecutive higher yields snapped, with the exception of Indian 10’s and Japanese 10’s.

The latter’s yield is in a 5 week rising streak.

And the U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 5 year bond yield spread is approaching oversold.

Equities bounced.

Nearly every losing streak appearing in last week’s edition was snapped.

The exceptions include, China’s FCTAC has declined for 7 weeks, the NIFTY, SENSEX and ASX Financials have fallen for 6 weeks and the Nikkei 225 has declined for 5 weeks.

India’s SENSEX is at its lowest close since early April 2025 and completed a notable mean reversion.

The FTSE Saudi and Tadawul indices have risen for 5 weeks.

Inversely, Norway’s OBX has risen for 10 weeks.

Commodities were mixed with a positive bias.

Oils, Distillates, Aluminium, Rubber, Precious Metals, Tin and Orange Juice were the notable gainers.

Coal, Gases, Steel, Coffee and Sugar were amongst the decliners.

Many coal contracts left overbought territory.

Australian Coking Coal and Cotton have risen for 4 weeks.

WTI Crude, CRB Index, Gasoil and Middle Eastern Urea have closed higher for 7 weeks straight.

Lean Hogs have declined for 4 straight weeks.

Sugar #16 fell and broke a 7-week winning streak.

Palladium and Platinum rose and snapped their 4 weeks of decline.

Rubber is overbought.

And U,S. Gulf Urea prices have risen for 17 consecutive weeks.

Currencies were quiet.

The Aussie rose except against the INR and ZAR.

The CAD fell and versus the USD, it sees a 4-week losing streak.

The British Pound was weaker.

COP/USD has risen for 4 weeks, as has the EUR/CHF.

The Yen was slightly firmer.

The Euro was mixed and muted.

The Thai Baht rose and snapped a 4 week losing streak against the USD.

The USD fell against the Indian Rupee to end 6 weeks of gains.

Inversely, the USD/ZAR fell to break its 4-week winning streak.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Aluminium 6.6%, Brent Crude Oil 3.5%, Baltic Dry Index 1.7%, Cocoa 2.5%, WTI Crude Oil 4.1%, Cotton 2.1%, Palm Oil 3.9%, Copper 1.6%, Heating Oil 3%, Cattle 3.1%, Tin 7.4%, Orange Juice 12.9%, Palladium 7.2%, Platinum 5.1%, Gasoline 3%, S&P GSCI 4.4%, Rubber 4.7%, CRB Index 3.3%, Gasoil 7.9%, Silver in AUD 4.1%, Silver in USD 4.7%, Gold in AUD 3.5%, Gold in CAD 4.3%, Gold in CHF 4.1%, Gold in Euro 3.8%, Gold in GBP 4.4%, Gold in USD 4.1%, All World Developed ex USA 2.3%, AEX 1.8%, ATX 3.5%, KBW Banks 5.2%, BUX 1.9%, CAC 3.4%, DAX 3.9%, DJ Industrials 3%, DJ Transports 5%, MIB 5.2%, IBB 5.6%, IBEX 4.5%, BOVESPA 3.6%, S&P Small Cap 600 3%, Russell 2000 3.4%, Nasdaq Composite 4.4%, KRE Regional Banks 4.2%, KSE 2.5%, FTSE 250 3.2%, S&P MidCap 400 3.1%, Mexico 4.5%, Nasdaq Biotechs 4%, OBX 3.6%, Copenhagen 4.4%, Helsinki 3.8%, Stockholm 3.6%, PX 2.1%, SA40 4.2%, SMI 3.3%, SOX 5%, IGPA 2.9%, S&P 500 3.4%, Nasdaq Transports 4.1%, TSX 3.6%, FTSE 100 4.7%, Vietnam 1.7%, WIG 4.9%, S&P Biotechs 7.8%, ASX Materials 3.4%, FTSE Saudi 1.6%, PSI 5.3% and Eurostoxx 50 rose 3.4%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

Richards Bay Coal (3.5%), Rotterdam Coal (7.9%), North European Hot Rolled Steel (2.2%), JKM LNG (2.1%), Arabica Coffee (2.1%), JKM LNG in Yen (13.3%), Newcastle Coal (6%), Natural Gas (7.4%), Robusta Coffee (4%), Sugar (4.8%), Dutch TTF Gas (8.8%), Corn (2.1%), FCATC (2.1%), TAIEX (1.6%) and the KOSPI fell 3.8%.

April 5, 2026

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au 

Keep an eye on the MOVE Index

When the volatility in U.S. bonds options is overbought, a large decline results in a hoick higher in stock prices.