rob zdravevski's blog

Macro Extremes (week ending April 24, 2026)

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Baltic Dry Index

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

5 & 10-year Japanese bond yields

AUD/IDR *

AUD/JPY *

AUD/SGD *

AUD/THB

BRL/USD

CNH/USD *

Aluminium

Commodity Bloomberg Commodity Index

Brent Crude Oil

Gasoline

CRB Index

Urea (U.S. Gulf and Middle East)

Gasoil *

BUX Index *

Egypt’s EGX Index *

TAIEX *

KOSPI

Nikkei 225 Index

And Norway’s OBX

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

COP/USD

USD/IDR

Cotton *

Philadelphia’s SOX Index *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Chinese 10-year government bond *

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

Australian 10-year minus Aussie 2-year bond yield spread *

CHF/AUD *

JPY/AUD *

NZD/AUD *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

None

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond changed direction and rose.

Any losing streaks, ended.

Japanese 2’s left overbought territory.

U.S. 10-year inflation breakeven rate is at its highest since late July 2025.

While the U.S. real interest rates are in a 4-week losing streak.

Equities were weaker.

A few more dropped out from the overbought club.

However, the Nasdaq 100 is near an overbought quinella.

The Nasdaq Composite, China A50, S&P 500 and the SOX extended their winning streaks to 5 weeks.

The latter has risen 36% over that time.

All the other 4-week streaks listed last week, are no longer intact.

The S&P Small Cap 600, Russell 2000, S&P 600 Value and Vietnam’s VN Index are in 5-week winning streaks.

While the Dow Jones Transports exhibited a mini blow-off top to finish the week lower and snapping its 5-week streak of advance.

Lastly, Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul index fell and broke its 7 consecutive weeks of higher prices.

Commodities were mixed.

Oil, Cocoa, Gases, Coal, Coffee and Sugar were the notable gainers.

Orange Juice, Precious Metals, Oats and Rice were amongst the decliners.

Aluminium has risen for 5 weeks.

Copper fell and broke its 4-week winning streak.

European Steel, Dutch TTF Gas and Uranium prices fell and snapped 5 weeks of advance.

Cotton fell and ended its 6-week run of higher prices.

While Rotterdam Coal have fallen for 7 weeks.

And U.S. Gulf Urea prices fell to break its 19 consecutive advancing weeks.

Currencies were steady.

The Aussie has risen for 4 weeks against the Swissie, Euro, Rupee and Singapore Dollar and its nearly overbought across a range of pairs.

The Loonie rose.

COP/USD is in a 7-week winning streak.

The Euro weakened, again.

BRL/USD has climbed for 6 weeks.

And the British Pound was firmer.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Bloomberg Commodity Index 3.5%, Baltic Dry Index 3.8%, Brent Crude Oil 17.1%, Cocoa 4.6%, WTI Crude Oil 14.3%, Palm Oil 3.3%, Heating Oil 14.9%, JKM LNG 10.3%, Arabica Coffee 3.8%, JKM LNG in Yen 5.9%, Aluminium 1.9%, Newcastle Coal 6.1%, Nickel 4.9%, Gasoline 13.6%, Robusta Coffee 8.7%, Sugar 4.7%, S&P GSCI 7.3%, CRB Index 4.5%, Dutch TTF Gas 15.7%, Gasoil 21.5%, Corn 1.4%, Wheat 2.9%, EGX 1.8%, TAIEX 5.8%, Nasdaq Composite 1.5%, KLSE 1.5%, KOSPI 4.6%, Nasdaq 100 2.4%, Nikkei 225 2.1%, SOX 10% and Vietnam’s VN Index rose 2%.

The group of largest decliners for the week included; 

Natural Gas (5.7%), Orange Juice (13.9%), Palladium (5.7%), Platinum (5.2%), Silver (6.3%), Gold (2.4%), Oats (1.9%), Rice (2.2%), All World Developed ex USA (2.2%), ATX (3.4%), BUX (3.6%), CAC (3.2%), IDX (6.6%), DAX (2.3%), DFM (2.2%), DJ Transports (6.8%), MIB (2.5%), IBB (3.9%), IBEX (4.3%), BOVESPA (2.6%), Dublin (5.6%), KRE Regional Banks (2.1%), KSE (1.9%), FTSE 250 (2.7%), NBI (3.8%), NIFTY (1.9%), Copenhagen (3%), Stockholm (2.6%), PX (3.7%), SA40 (4.1%), SENSEX (2.3%), SET (1.8%), SMI (1.9%), IGPA (2.1%), Eurostoxx 50 (1.9%), Tadawul (3.9%), WIG (3.4%), XBI (3.9%), ASX Materials (2.1%) and the ASX 200 fell 1.8%.

April 26, 2026

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au 

The long energy trade commenced much earlier

My December 7, 2025 edition of Macro Extremes was prescient in listing the Dutch TTF Natural Gas contract in the category of an “oversold quinella”.

That was before ‘everyone’ became an expert in how many ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz on a daily basis.

A few months later, we saw an ‘overbought quinella’.

That was the ‘fat part’ of the trade.

Macro Extremes is published every Sunday.

April 24, 2026

An Aussie Dollar / Japanese Yen extreme

The AUD/JPY is trading at places that it seldom does.

April 24, 2025

Sure, credit spreads are narrow…….but it’s the price action and it relates to equities that I’m interested in.

Here is a snippet.

April 22, 2026

Stocks should climb this ‘wall of worry’

When the National Australia Banks’ Australian Consumer Confidence Index is so pessimistic (as denoted by the circles), then take a look at the rectangles placed on the ASX 200 Index.

April 22, 2026

Risk-on as seen in the AUD/CHF

A weekly overbought extreme in the AUD/CHF tells us that broader equity prices either; 

a) labour their way towards a momentary peak followed by lower to sideways travel or

b) continue to climb a ‘wall of worry’.

But for my secondary indicators, today’s read is that we will see the latter before we see the former…..

rob@karriasset.com.au

April 20, 2026

Macro Extreme (week ending April 17, 2026)

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Cattle

COP/USD

EUR/JPY

GBP/JPY

Italy’s MIB Index

Russell 2000

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

2, 5 & 10-year Japanese bond yields

North American Hot Rolled Coiled Steel

Aluminium

Urea

AUD/CAD *

AUD/EUR

AUD/GBP

AUD/IDR *

AUD/JPY *

AUD/SGD

BRL/USD

CNH/USD *

USD/IDR

ATX Index

BUX Index

BOVESPA

CAC 40 Index

Egypt’s EGX Index

TAIEX *

OBX *

And Finland’s OMX

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Cotton *

Dow Jones Transports

Nasdaq Small Cap 700 Index

Philadelphia’s SOX Index *

XBI Biotech ETF *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Chinese 10 year government bond

U.S. 10-year minus German 10-year bond yield spread *

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

Australian 10-year minus Aussie 2-year bond yield spread *

Cocoa *

CAD/AUD

CHF/AUD

GBP/AUD

JPY/AUD *

NZD/AUD *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

None

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields fell, again.

The last of the bond yields dropped off the overbought list.

The Australian 5 year bond yield has fallen for 4 weeks as have British 2’s, 3’s, 5’s and 10’s.

While, the Australian 10-2 year bond yield spread moved out of oversold territory.

The Japanese 10’s broke their 6 weeks of climbing yield.

And the U.S. 10 year minus U.S. inflation rate spread is nearly oversold.

Equities had a another terrific week.

Many more equity indices joined the overbought club.

The ATX, CAC, MIOB, IBEX, S&P Small Cap 600, ISEQ, Russell 2000, KRE, OMX-C, SA40, SET, IGPA, Nasdaq Transports, TSX, VN Index, FTSE 100, WIG and the ASX Small Caps and the Materials are in a 4 week winning streak.

Thailand’s SET Index fell and snapped its 4 weeks of advance.

The Tadawul index have risen for 7 weeks.

Dubai’s DFM index has climbed 9% over the past fortnight.

Over the past 3 weeks, the XBI biotech’s, the Nasdaq Composite and the SOX Index have risen 15%, 16% and 26% respectively.

Commodities were mixed.

Shipping Rates, Cotton, Copper, Silver, Urea and Tin were the notable gainers.

Coal, Gases, Distillates, Orange Juice and Hogs were amongst the decliners.

The remaining energy contracts left overbought territory.

WTI Crude Oil has fallen 24.5% over the past fortnight.

Heating Oil has declined 22%.

Richards Bay rose to snap its 5 week losing streak, while Rotterdam Coal have fallen for 6 weeks.

Cotton and Cattle have risen for 6 weeks, with the former rising 20% over that time.

North European Hot Rolled Steel, JKM LNG, Newcastle Coal, Dutch TTF have declined for 4 straight weeks.

Copper, Uranium, Silver and Gold are in 4 week winning streaks.

Middle Eastern Urea have closed higher for 9 weeks straight.

And U,S. Gulf Urea prices have risen for 19 consecutive weeks.

Currencies were little quieter.

The Aussie rose again which is commensurate with the risk-on sentiment seen in equities.

The CAD mixed as the CAD/EUR rose and broke its 4 weeks of decline.

The Euro eased.

BRL/USD has climbed for 5 weeks.

EUR/CHF fell and broke a 5 week winning run.

And the USD was weaker as the USD/CLP fell for the 4^th week and the USD/COP sunk for the 6^th week.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Aluminium 2.9%, Baltic Dry Index 16.6%, Cotton 5.7%, Copper 3.9%, Lithium Carbonate 1.7%, Lithium Hydroxide 5.1%, Tin 5.3%, Palladium 3.9%, Platinum 3.7%, Robusta Coffee 1.9%, Tin 5.7%, Urea Middle East 6.9%, Uranium 1.9%, Silver in AUD 4.9%, Silver in USD 6.4%, Gold in AUD 1.9%, Corn 1.8%, Rice 2.7%, Wheat 3.5%, Shanghai Composite 1.6%, CSI 300 2%, All World Developed ex USA 2.5%, ATX 2.5%, KBW Banks 2.4%, BUX 4.5%, CAC 2%, China A50 3.2%, IDX 2.4%, DAX 3.8%, DFM 4.8%, DJ Industrials 3.1%, DJ Transports 10.2%, EGX 4.8%, FCATC 4.5%, MIB 2.7%, HSCEI 2.2%, IBB 4.3%, IBEX 1.5%, IDX 4%, S&P Small Caps 600 4%, Dublin 1.9%, Russell 2000 5.5%, TAIEX 3.9%, Nasdaq Composite 6.8%, KRE Regional Banks 2.1%, KSE 4%, KOSPI 5.7%, FTSE 250 3.8%, S&P MidCap 400 3.5%, NBI 4.8%, Nasdaq 100 6.2%, Nikkei 225 2.7%, Copenhagen 1.8%, Helsinki 1.6%, Stockholm 2.3%, PX 1.8%, SA40 2%, SMI 1.9%, SOX 7.5%, IGPA 3.1%, S&P 500 4.5%, Eurostoxx 50 2.2%, Nasdaq Transports 4%, TSX 1.9%, Vietnam 3.8%, WIG 3%, XBI 7.1%, BIST 3.7%, ASX Materials 1.7% and the ASX Small Caps rose 1.6%.

The group of largest decliners for the week included; 

Rotterdam Coal (2.8%), Brent Crude Oil (5.1%), WTI Crude Oil (11.2%), Palm Oil (2.5%), Lean Hogs (2.6%), Heating Oil (8.5%), JKM LNG (8.7%), Arabica Coffee (3.9%), JKM LNG in Yen (6.3%), Newcastle Coal (5.7%), Orange Juice (5.8%), Sugar (3.2%), S&P GSCI (3.6%), CRB Index (1.8%), Dutch TTF Gas (11.2%), Gasoil (10.2%), OBX (3.7%), PSE (1.6%), Lisbon (3%), SET (1.6%), ASX Financials (2.1%) and the ASX Industrials fell 1.5%.

April 19, 2026

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au 

Locking in your Aussie Dollar term deposit

The circle in this price chart of the 2-year Australian government bond highlights a moment when the probability indicated an optimal time to either purchase these bonds or ‘fix’ a rate in your AUD term deposit.

It also suggests that it’s not an ideal to have locked in mortgage rates.

Did you bank or mortgage provider tell you this?

We should see this 2 year yield back at 3.8% in the coming months.

April 18, 2026

rob@karriasset.com.au

The signals in Indonesian bonds

In October 2025, my signals said Indonesian 10 year bonds were a sell.

Macro Extremes (week ending October 17, 2025)

Its yield was trading at 5.9% and registering at a host of my extreme measures.

During the week of March 23, 2026, when they were trading between 6.8% and 6.9%, the Indonesian 10’s were a buy.

Macro Extremes (week ending March 27, 2026)

And somewhere in between (around January 27, 2026), MSCI issued a significant warning about the investability and transparency of Indonesian stocks, which caused a major market rout.

April 18, 2026

rob@karriasset.com.au

It’s no time to buy Urea

My October and early November 2025 weekly editions of Macro Extremes listed Middle Eastern Urea prices as registering oversold readings.

Today…….I can’t understand why anyone would be a buyer.

Next Macro Extremes will be posted this Sunday.

April 17, 2026

rob@karriasset.com.au