rob zdravevski's blog

Macro Extremes (week ending January 30, 2026)

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities. 

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Indian 10 year bond yield *

U.S. 5 year bond yield

Rotterdam Coal

Brent and WTi Crude Oil

Copper

LNG priced in Yen *

Newcastle Coal

S&P GSCI Index *

CRB Index *

Dutch TTF Gas *

AUD/EUR *

AUD/GBP *

AUD/SGD

AUD/USD

CHF/USD *

COP/USD *

NZD/USD

And Thailand’s SET Index

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Australian 2 year government bond yields *

Japanese yield curve

South Korean 10 year bond yield *

U.S. 5 year bond yield

Australian Coking Coal

LME Aluminium

Gold in CAD, CHF, GBP and USD

AUD/JPY *

CHF/JPY *

CNH/USD *

EUR/JPY *

GBP/JPY *

GBP/USD

Shanghai Composite *

Austria’s ATX Index *

Dow Jones Transports *

Hang Seng Index

Spain’s IBEX *

Taiwan’s TAIEX

Pakistan’s KSE Index *

South Korea’s KOSPI Index *

Helsinki’s OMX *

Stockholm’s OMX

Czechia’s PX Index *

South Africa’s SA40 equity Index *

Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX)

Chile’s IGPA *

Singapore’s Strait Times Index

Israel’s TA-35

Nasdaq Transports *

FTSE 100 *

Poland’s WIG Index *

And the ASX Materials Index *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Bloomberg Commodity Index

Gold Volatility Index

Tin *

Uranium *

AUD/CAD *

AUD/IDR *

AUD/INR *

AUD/SGD

AUD/THB

AUD/USD

CLP/USD *

MYR/USD

USD/INR

ZAR/USD

All World Developed (ex USA) *

Hungary’s BUX Index *

Egypt’s EGX Index *

Brazil’s BOVESPA *

Taiwan’s TAEIX

Malaysia’s KLSE

Mexico’s IPC Index

And Türkiye’s BIST Index

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Australian 10 year minus 2 year yield spread

Copper/Gold Ratio

DXY Index

Sugar #16

CAD/CHF

EUR/CHF

JPY/AUD *

USD/DKK

USD/SGD *

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

U.S. 3 month bill yield

Sugar #16 *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

Cocoa (LME & CBOT)

CAD/AUD

USD/CLP *

USD/MXN *

USD/SEK *

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields eased, except for the U.S. 20 and 30 years

U.S. BB rated high yields ticked up.

French 10 year yields have declined for 4 weeks.

U.S. 5 year minus 5 yer inflation break-even has declined for 5 weeks.

While, in isolation, the 5 year break-even is nearing an overbought quinella.

Japanese yield climbing streaks continue.

Chilean 2’s left oversold territory.

Chilean 10-2 spread isn’t overbought.

Korean 10 year and U.S. 3 year yields fell and snapped 5 weeks of advance.

Japanese 10 year yields broke 6 weeks of higher travel.

Japanese 5’s fell and broke a 14 week climbing streak.

Equities were mixed.

While some left, many indices remain in overbought extreme territory.

Biotech indices fell out of overbought land.

The TA35 and BIST have climbed for 5 weeks.

TAIEX, KOSPI, EGX and STI are in 6 week winning streaks.

The SOX have risen for 7 weeks.

Poland’s WIG has soared for 8 weeks.

The All World Developed-ex USA & Austria’s ATX have climbed for 10 weeks.

Hungary’s BUX has closed higher 7 of out last 8 weeks.

China’s FCATC and Nasdaq Transports fell and respectively broke 5 and 10 week winning streaks.

The FTSE 250 snapped a 6 week winning streak.

Pakistan’s KSE broke a climb of 11 consecutive weeks.

And, at one stage, Indonesia’s IDX was down 16% for the week.

Commodities were mixed but very active.

Coal,  Oils, Fuels, Gases, Shipping Rates, Uranium and Rice were the notable gainers. 

Precious Metals, Lithium, Cocoa, Tin, Coffee and Nickel were the few decliners.

The big news was Silver 30% decline on Friday alone, along with the decline of the other precious metals which also saw them and Aluminium register weekly outside reversals.

Palm Oil, Gasoline, S&P GSCI, CRB, Gasoil, Rice and Wheat are in 4 week winning streaks.

Heating Oil and Australian Coking Coal have risen for 5 weeks.

Brent and WTI Crude are in a 6 week winning streak.

Uranium has soared for 10 weeks.

Lithium prices fell and snapped a 6 week advance.

The U.S. Gulf Urea price has risen for 8 weeks.

While Orange Juice fell and halted 7 weeks of advance.

Cocoa and Iron Ore have sunk for 4 weeks

And North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel has declined for 5 weeks in a row.

Currencies were busy.

The Aussie rose.

The AUD against the GBP, IDR, INR and Yen has climbed for 4 weeks.

AUD/EUR has risen for 6 weeks.

USD/BRL is lower for 5 weeks.

GBP/EUR is in a 7 winning streak.

CHF/AUD has fallen for 6 weeks.

Canadian Dollar was mixed.

The USD/INR has climbed for 6 weeks.

And, the USD rose against the South African Rand and snapped a 9 week streak.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Richards Bay Coal 4.1%, Rotterdam Coal 4.7%, Brent Crude 6.9%, Baltic Dry Index 13.6%, WTI Crude 6.8%, Heating Oil 8.2%, JKM LNG 2.1%, LNG in Yen 3%, Tin 6.2%, Newcastle Coal 6.1%, Natural Gas 16.4%, Gasoline 3.4%, S&P GSCI 2.4%, CRB Index 2.5%, Dutch TTF Gas 2.5%, Gasoil 9.9%, Uranium 12%, Oats 3.2%, Rice 3.5%, Wheat 1.6%, ATX 1.6%, All Developed World ex USA 1.5%, KBW Banks 2%, BUX 3%, EGX 2.9%, HSCEI 1.7%, Hang Seng 2.4%, IBEX 1.9%, BOVESPA 1.4%, KRE 1.8%, KOSPI 4.6%, Mexico 1.9%, PX 1.6%, WIG 2.1% and BIST rose 6.5%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

Aluminium (1.8%), LME Cocoa (3.1%), Arabica Coffee (5%), Lithium Carbonate (4.5%), Lithium Hydroxide (11%), Nickel (4.5%), Orange Juice (3.8%), Palladium (16%), Platinum (22.6%), Sugar (3.2%) LME Tin (8.6%), Silver in AUD 18.4%, Silver in USD (17.6%), Gold in AUD (2.8%), Gold in CAD (2.4%), Gold in CHF (2.8%), Gold in EUR (2%), Gold in GBP (2.2%), Gold in USD (1.9%), IDX (6.9%), DAX (1.5%), FCATC (2.2%), IBB (1.7%), Russell 2000 (2%), KSE (2.6%), S&P MidCap 400 (1.4%), NBI (1.4%), SA40 (1.9%), TSX (3.7%), VN Index (2.2%), XBI (2.6%) and the ASX Small Caps fell 3.1%.

February 1, 2026

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au 

Macro Extremes (week ending January 23, 2026)

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities. 

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Indian 10 year bond yield *

U.S. 3, 7, 10, 20 & 30 year bond yields

LNG priced in Yen

Natural Gas

S&P GSCI Index *

CRB Index

Dutch TTF Gas *

AUD/CAD *

AUD/EUR

AUD/GBP

AUD/SGD

AUD/USD

CHF/USD

COP/USD *

RMB

S&P Small Cap 600 *

S&P Mid Cap 400 *

And the S&P 600

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Korean 10 year government bond yields *

Japanese 2 and 5 year bond yields *

Aluminium (CBOT & LME)

Gold in AUD, GBP & ZAR

AUD/JPY *

CHF/JPY

CNH/USD *

EUR/JPY *

GBP/JPY

MYR/USD *

Shanghai Composite *

All World Developed (ex USA) *

Austria’s ATX Index *

Indonesia’s IDX Composite Index *

Dow Jones Transports *

iShares Biotech Index

Spain’s IBEX *

Taiwan’s TAIEX

Malaysia’s KLSE *

Pakistan’s KSE Index *

South Korea’s KOSPI Index *

Nasdaq Biotech Index *

Japan’s Nikkei 225 *

Helsinki’s OMX *

Copenhagen’s OMX

Czechia’s PX Index *

South Africa’s SA40 equity Index *

Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX)

Chile’s IGPA *

Israel’s TA35 *

Singapore’s Strait Times Index

Nasdaq Transports *

Canada’s TSX equity index *

FTSE 100 *

Poland’s WIG Index *

S&P Biotech Index *

ASX Small Caps

And the ASX Materials Index *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Japanese 10 and 30 year bond yields

Australian Coking Coal

Bloomberg Commodity Index

Lithium Carbonate *

Lithium Hydroxide *

Tin *

Nickel *

Platinum

Uranium

Silver in AUD & USD *

Gold in CAD, CHF, EUR and USD

AUD/IDR

AUD/INR

CLP/USD *

Hungary’s BUX Index *

Egypt’s EGX Index *

Brazil’s BOVESPA *

Mexico’s IPC Index

U.S. 600 Mid Caps

Vietnam’s VN Index *

And Turkiye’s BIST Index

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Copper/Gold Ratio

Corn

CHF/AUD

USD/CHF

USD/SGD

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

U.S. 3 month bill yield

Sugar #16 *

JPY/AUD *

USD/CLP *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

Cocoa

USD/MXN *

USD/SEK

USD/ZAR

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields rose.

Aussie curve near overbought.

AU10-2 spread ner overbought too.

U.S. high yield ‘yields’ are falling.

IEF mean reverted.

Japanese yield climbing streaks continue.

Chilean 2’s left oversold territory.

Chilean 10-2 spread isn’t overbought.

Korean 10 year yields have risen for 5 weeks.

U.S. 3 month bill yield is close to oversold, for first time since August 2025.

U.S. 3 year bond yield has advanced for 5 weeks, while the 3’s and 5’s mean reverted, upwards.

Equities bias was for lower prices.

We are seeing a growing list of indices registering overbought extremes.

The TA35 and BIST have climbed for 4 weeks.

TAIEX, KOSPI, FCATC and STI are in 5 week winning streaks.

The FTSE 250 and the SOX have risen for 6 weeks.

Poland’s WIG has climbed for 7 weeks.

The All World Developed-ex USA & Austria’s ATX have climbed for 9 weeks.

Pakistan’s KSE and Nasdaq Transports have soared for 11 straight weeks.

Copenhagen and PSE snapped 4 weeks of higher prices.

Helsinki and Stockholm fell and broke 5 winning weeks.

And Norway’s OBX, Czechia’s PX and Spain’s IBEX fell and broke 8 weeks of advance.

Commodities were mixed but mostly higher, again.

Gases, Oil, Fuels, Shipping Rates, Nickel, Tin, Tin and Precious Metals were the notable gainers. 

Cocoa, Lumber, Sugar and Oats were the few decliners.

Heating Oil has risen for 4 weeks.

Brent and WTI Crude are in a 5 week winning streak.

Lithium Hydroxide has advanced for 6 weeks.

The U.S. Gulf Urea price and Orange Juice have risen for 7 weeks.

Australian Coking Coal has soared for 8 weeks.

Uranium’s winning streak extends to 9 weeks.

Newcastle Coal has mean reverted.

Baltic Dry Index rose and broke 5 weeks of decline.

Cocoa has sunk for 4 weeks but its collapse following its parabolic rise is more impressive.

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel is also in a 4 week losing streak.

Palladium rose but didn’t make a new high.

Rubber fell and snapped a 6 week advance.

While Natural Gas rose 70% for the week, snapping a 6 week losing streak and easily recovering its 38% loss over that time.

Currencies were busier, but mixed.

Many Aussie (risk-on) and Yen (risk-off) pairs are back in the list.

CAD was weaker.

AUD/EUR has risen for 5 weeks.

GBP/EUR is in a 6 winning streak.

CHF/AUD has fallen for 5 weeks.

PHP/USD rose and broke its 4 week losing streak.

Inversely, the USD/INR has climbed for 5 weeks.

And, the USD has fallen against the South African Rand for 9 weeks.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Aluminium 1.6%, Bloomberg Commodity Index 5.3%, Brent Crude 2.7%, Baltic Dry Index 12.4%, WTI Crude 2.9%, Palm Oil 2.5%, Copper 2%, Heating Oil 5.3%, LNG in Yen 12.4%, Lithium Hydroxide 2.6%, LME Aluminium 3.1%, Natural Gas 70%, Nickel 6.5%, Orange Juice 4.3%, Palladium 11.3%, Platinum 18%, Gasoline 3.1%, Robusta Coffee 3.6%, Tin 18.1%, S&P GSCI 3.8%, CRB Index 3.4%, Dutch TTF Gas 8.5%, Gasoil 3.2%, Uranium 4.4%, Silver in AUD 11.2%, Silver in USD 14.7%, Gold in AUD 5.2%, Gold in CAD 6.8%, Gold in CHF 5.4%, Gold in EUR 6.4%, Gold in GBP 6.4%, Gold in USD 8.5%, Gold in ZAR 6.3%, Wheat 2.2%, BUX 2.3%, EGX 7.2%, IBB 3.2%, Bovespa 8.5%, TAIEX 1.8%, KSE 2.2%, KOSPI 3.1%, Mexico 1.6%, NBI 3.1%, SA40 1.9%, SET 3%, IGPA 3%, XBI 3.1%, ASX Materials 1.5% and BIST rose 2.6%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

LME Cocoa (19%), CBOT Cocoa (17%), Lumber (2.4%), Sugar (1.5%), Oats (1.6%), KBW Banks (2%), CAC (1.4%), China A50 (2.3%), DAX (1.6%), MIB (2.1%), NIFTY (2.5%), PSE (2%), PX (1.5%), Sensex (2.4%), SMI (2%), ASX Financials (1.9%) and the ASX Industrials fell 1.5%.

January 25, 2026

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au