rob zdravevski's blog

Watching Palantir extremes

Palantir (PLTR US) was a terrific stock to own $7 but not so above $140.

Put that recent return in perspective.

But more importantly, I expect it to halve, in short order.

Furthermore, in the absence of any fraud, the stock price shouldn’t see $7 again.

November 3, 2026

Check yourself before you wreck yourself – SOX

Why on earth would you be ‘long’ the SOX or any related semiconductor stocks….

Whether that is today or at anytime over the past 12 months….

November 3, 2026

rob@karriasset.com.au

A washout in the Chinese CSI 300

November 3, 2026

Gold bugs are quiet !

Platinum and Palladium may trough before other precious metals.

Here is the USD Gold price.

See you 20% lower…….

November 3, 2026

rob@karriasset.com.au

If you want to jump at shadows….

Half of this headline from an Australian media outlet is incorrect.

“Interest rates have reached their highest point since the global financial crisis after the Reserve Bank of Australia board voted to raise the official cash rate to 4.85 per cent.”

Interest rates (such as the Australian government 2 or 10 year bond yield) are not making new highs. They are lower than they were 2 months ago.

Don’t easily believe your local and friendly journalist.

Irrespective, borrowing costs which I think remain embedded and higher than what many are still anchored to (see the early 2020’s) for the next 4-14 years shouldn’t continuously be a headline.]

November 3, 2026

Macro Extremes #284 (week ending October 30th, 2026)

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets, on a weekly timeframe, either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below their rolling mean.

NB: Pricing of commodity futures contracts considers only the immediate front-month contract.

* denotes multiple-week inclusion.

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Extremes Above the Mean (At least 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

10-year Brazilian government bond yields

AUD/EUR *

OMX Copenhagen

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Overbought (RSI > 70)

Belgian, French and Indian 10-Year Government Bond Yields *

U.S. 30-Year Mortgage Rate *

Copper/Gold Ratio

Richards Bay Coal *
Rotterdam Coal *

Brent and WTI Crude Oil *

JKM LNG in USD and Yen *

Gasoline

Dutch TTF Gas *

Uranium

Rice *

Japanese Naphtha *

CNH/USD *

USD/IDR

USD/MXN *

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The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and >2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

Indian 10-year government bond yields

CAD/EUR
GBP/EUR *

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Extremes Below the Mean (At least 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

Silver

Tin

BRL/USD

Egypt’s EGX-30 Index

Thailand’s SET Index

Chile’s IGPA Index

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Oversold (RSI < 30)

Lithium Hydroxide

PHP/USD *

Shanghai Composite *

CSI 300 Index *

China A50 Index *

FCATC Index

Türkiye’s BIST Index *

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The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and >2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

Lean Hogs *

Palladium *

Platinum

EUR/CAD *

EUR/GBP

Indonesia’s IDX Composite

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Notes & Ideas

Government Bond Yields Fell

Australian 10 year minus Australian 2-year bond yield spread has fallen for 4 weeks, as has the U.S. 5–7-year corporate bond yield spread, U.S. BB bond yield index, Japanese 10-year yield, TBT, TBX and U.S. 3, 5, 7-, 10-, 20- & 30-year yields.

In addition, the U.S. 5 year minus U.S. 5-year breakeven inflation rate spread, the U.S. 5 year minus U.S. 3-month bill yield spread, U.S. 5 year minus U.S. inflation rate spread, U.S. 10 year minus EU 10-year bond yield spread and the U.S. 10 year minus U.S. breakeven inflation rate spread have also declined for 5 weeks.

Brazilian 10’s soared.

Irish 10-year bond yields, American 2’s, Japanese 3’s, Dutch 10’s and the U.S. 10 year minus U.S. inflation rate have declined for 5 weeks.

Inversely, IEF, IEI, SHY and TLT have risen for 4 weeks.

And Indian 10-year yields fell to break a 10-week rising streak.

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Equities Were Surprisingly Mixed

Copenhagen and the SMI have risen for 4 weeks.

ASX Industrials are in a 5-week winning streak.

SOX has fallen for 4 weeks.

Shanghai Composite and FCATC have sunk for 6 weeks.

BIST has declined for 7 weeks.

CSI 300 and China A50 are in 12 week losing streaks.

The All World Developed ex USA and KOSPI rose and snapped 4-week losing streak.

The KSE, OMXH and XSO rose and broke 5 weeks of decline.

The ASX Materials rose to end 8 weeks of losses.

The IBB biotech ETF has soared 7.5% in the past 2 weeks,

And Brazil’s BOVESPA’s 18% decline for the week erases only 10 weeks of work.

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Commodity Prices Were Mixed

Coal, Steel, LNG and Uranium were the notable gainers.

Cotton, Precious Metals, Hogs, Coffee, Sugar and Oats were amongst the largest decliners.

JKM LNG and Rubber have risen for 4 weeks.

Dutch TTF Gas has closed higher for 5 weeks.

Brent Crude has risen for 6 weeks.

Cocoa, Hogs and Lithium Carbonate have fallen for 4 weeks.

Corn has sunken for 5 weeks.

Platinum has fallen for consecutive 6 weeks.

Palladium and Wheat have fallen for 9 weeks.

Silver has fallen for 5 of the past 6 weeks.

And Nickel is nearing an oversold reading

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Currencies Were Quieter

The Aussie, Loonie and British Pound were stronger.

CAD/CHF and CAD/JPY have risen for 4 weeks.

CAD/EUR and GBP/EUR are in 5-week winning streaks.

The Yen was weaker.

USD/MXN has closed higher for 8 weeks.

The COP/USD fell and broke a 4-week winning streak

And the USD/KRW rose and snapped a 5-week winning run.

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The Week’s Larger Advancers

The larger advancers over the past week comprised Richards Bay Coal 2.3%, Baltic Dry Index 2%, JKM LNG in Yen 9.4%, TTF 10.9%, Uranium 2.5%, Gasoil crack 2.9%, ATX 2.4%, BUX 2.3%, CAC 2.4%, DAX 2.5%, DJT 1.4%, Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul 2.4%, MIB 1.9%, HSCEI 1.4%, IBB 4.8%, IJR 1.5%, Dublin 1.9%, Russel 2000 1.3%, KSE 2.5%, Kospi 3.3%, NBI 4.7%, OBX 2.1%, Copenhagen 4.9%, OMXS 3%, PX 1.7%, Sensex 1.8%, SMI 2.4%, XBI 4.3%, XJO 1.3%, XMJ 4% and XSO rose 2.7%.

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The Week’s Larger Decliners

The group of largest decliners for the week included Bloomberg Commodity Index (1.7%), Cocoa (2.5%), Cotton (3%), Palm Oil (2.8%), Gold (2.7%), Gold (2.7%), Hogs (10.2%), Heating Oil (2.3%), Arabica Coffee (6.6%), Cattle (4.4%), Lithium Carbonate (4.3%), Natural Gas (1.7%), Nickel (3.8%), Orange Juice (6.8%), Palladium (6.1%), Platinum (8%), Sugar (4.4%), Silver (8.7%), Tin (3.4%), Corn (1.8%), Oats (7.6%), Soybeans (2.7%), Wheat (3.4%), Brent crack (2.9%), Shanghai Composite (2.5%), CSI 300 (2.9%), IDX (7%), EGX (2.9%), FCATC (6.9%), IBEX (1.8%), Bovespa (18.1%), Taiex (1.8%), IXIC (2%), NDQ (2%), SET (2.8%), IGPA (4.4%), TA35 (1.6%), VN Index (1.8%) and BISTY fell 3.2%.

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November 1, 2026
By Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au

Role Playing and “What If”?

The time for role playing scenarios should have started 6 months ago.

In a recent investment committee meeting, I repeated my concern and prediction that in the coming 2-3 years, many investment advisors may be dealing with a lot of broken portfolios, whether if it’s with existing clients or prospective ones who have conducted their investing elsewhere.

Coming home

Parabola’s tell you when things are wacky.

Mean reversion fixes capital gains problems.

The stock’s price is different from the noise

Remember that theme about European defence companies?

And what about them parabola’s….