Trying to hear what's not being said
March 9, 2026 Leave a comment
Prices tell you everything.
As far as WTI Crude Oil prices are concerned,
it’s time to have one foot out the door.
They seldom (to never) trade to the metrics and extremes that I’m seeing today.
March 9, 2026
rob@karriasset.com.au
March 8, 2026 Leave a comment
A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.
The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.
n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.
* denotes multiple week inclusion
Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
Italian, Japanese, British and European 2-year government bond yields
British and European 3-year bond yields
Czech, British, Greek, Indonesian, Italian, Norwegian and Portuguese 10-year bond yields
Oats *
AUD/ZAR
CAD/EUR
CAD/GBP
USD/KRW
Overbought (RSI > 70)
Australian 2- & 3-year government bond yield
Australian 10 year minus U.S. 10-year bond yield spread
North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel
Gold in AUD, CAD, CHF, EUR, GBP, USD and ZAR *
AUD/EUR *
AUD/GBP *
AUD/IDR *
AUD/INR *
AUD/JPY *
AUD/SGD *
AUD/THB
CHF/JPY *
CNH/USD *
The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)
Richards Bay Coal
Aluminium *
Rotterdam Coal
Bloomberg Commodity Index
Brent Crude Oil
WTI Crude Oil
Heating Oil
North American Hot Rolled Coil Steel
JKM LNG in USD and Yen
Newcastle Coal
Gasoline
S&P GSCI Index
CRB Index
Dutch TTF Gas
Urea (U.S, Gulf and Middle East)
Gasoil
Wheat *
Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
U.S. 5-year bond yield minus U.S. 5-year inflation breakeven rate
U.S. 10-year bond yield minus U.S. 10-year inflation breakeven rate
China A50 index
IDX Composite
HSCEI
Hang Seng
NIFTY
SENSEX
Oversold (RSI < 30)
Australian 10 year minus Aussie 2-year yield spread *
Australian 10 year minus Aussie 5-year yield spread
U.S. 10-year minus Aussie 10-year yield spread
London and CME Cocoa *
Sugar #16 *
EUR/AUD *
JPY/AUD *
The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)
EUR/CHF
NZD/AUD *
Notes & Ideas:
Government bond yields soared.
And with that, we see many new entries amongst the ‘extremes’.
Chilean 2 year yields have risen for 5 weeks,
While Japanese 10 year yield shave fallen for 5 weeks.
Every other previous streak has been broken.
Equities were smashed.
The list of extraordinary declines appear the bottom of this note.
Except for the TAIEX, all of last week’s overbought indices departed the list.
All of the winning streaks which appeared last week been snapped.
The only winning streak is Norway’s OBX sitting at 6 weeks.
Thailand’s SET, South Korea’s KOSPI and the Nikkei 225 gave up half of its gains garnered in the previous 3 or 4 weeks.
Germany’s DAX is at its lowest close in 5 months, last seen during the week ending November 17, 2025.
Spain’s IBEX closed at the same price seen during the week of December 8, 2025.
While several Asian indices are overbought.
Commodities were strong.
Coal, Oils, Distillates, Gases, Coffee, Urea and Oats were the notable gainers.
Copper, Tin, Nickel and the precious metals were amongst the decliners.
JKM LNG mean reverted, upwards.
Wheat has advanced for 4 weeks.
Gold in ZAR and Soybeans have climbed for 5 weeks.
North American Hot Rolled Coil Steel is in a 7-week winning streak.
U.S. Gulf Urea prices have risen for 13 consecutive weeks.
Natural Gas rose and broke a 4-week losing streak.
Australian Coking Coal rose to end its 5 weeks of losses.
Gold in CAD and USD fell and snapped a 4-week winning streak.
The Copper/Gold Ratio has closed at its lowest level since February 1990 and it’s Monthly oversold reading is worth noting.
Currencies were busy.
While the Aussie fell, many of its pairs still appear amongst the extremes.
AUD/EUR in 11 week rising streak.
All of other AUD streaks came to an end, including the 8 week winning streaks for the AUD/GBP and AUD/IDR.
The USD and CAD rose.
The Euro and British Pound were firmer,
While the Yen fell.
The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;
Australian Coking Coal 2.8%, Richards Bay Coal 14.6%, Aluminium 9.8%, Rotterdam Coal 19.8%, Bloomberg Commodity Index 8.1%, Brent Crude 27.2%, Cocoa 11.8%, WTI Crude 35.6%, Palm Oil 8%, Heating Oil 39.5%, JKM LNG 46.5%, Arabica Coffee 4.5%, LNG in Yen 84.4%, Newcastle Coal 15.9%, Natural Gas 11.4%, Gasoline 20.2%, Robusta Coffee 4.1%, Sugar 1.5%, S&P GSCI 14.7%, CRB Index 12.6%, Dutch TTF Gas 67%, U.S. Gulf Urea 24.5%, Gasoil 53.9%, Middle East Urea 33.8%, Gold in ZAR 2%, Corn 2.7%, Oats 6.7%, Rice 4.4%, Soybeans 2.6%, Wheat 4.3% and Israel’s TA-35 equity index rose 5.5%.
The group of largest decliners from the week included;
Baltic Dry Index (6.1%), Cotton (2.2%), Copper (4.2%), Lithium Hydroxide (3.9%), Tin (13.5%), Nickel (2.2%), Palladium (9.1%), Platinum (9.8%), Silver in USD (10%), Gold in CAD (2.6%), Gold in GBP (1.5%), Gold in USD (2%), All World Developed ex USA (6.9%), AEX (4.6%), ATX (5.2%), KBW Banks (3.6%), BUX (3.7%), CAC (6.8%), IDX (7.9%), DAX (6.7%), DJ Industrials (3%), DJ Transports (6.2%), EGX (3.5%), FCATC (5%), MIB (6.5%), HSCEI (2.6%), IBB (4.5%), HSI (3.3%), IBEX (7%), BOVESPA (5%), S&P Small Cap 600 (3.8%), Russell 2000 (4%), TAIEX (5.1%), KRE Regional Banks (2.8%), KSE (6.3%), KOSPI (10.6%), FTSE 250 (5.3%), S&P MidCap 400 (4.6%), Mexico (5.7%), NBI (4.2%), Nikkei 225 (5.5%), NIFTY (2.9%), Copenhagen (2.2%), Helsinki (3.3%), Stockholm (5.7%), PSE (4.4%), PX (2.2%), SA40 (9.7%), SENSEX (2.9%), SET (7.7%), SMI (6.6%), SOX (7.2%), IGPA (5%), S&P 500 (2%), STI (2.(%), Nasdaq Transport (7.8%), TSX (3.7%), FTSE (5.7%), Vietnam (6%), WIG (4.8%), Nasdaq Biotech (2.7%), ASX Financials (3.3%), ASX 200 (3.8%), ASX Materials (8.5%), ASX Industrials (3.2%), ASX Small Caps (4.5%), BIST (6.7%) and Dubai’s DFM fell 9%.
March 8, 2026
By Rob Zdravevski
March 7, 2026 Leave a comment
In light of recent concerns about private credit,
I’m reprising some snippy comments written 2 years ago.
March 4, 2026 Leave a comment
If you happen to hold (a lot of) Australian Dollars,
perhaps consider Selling your strong AUD and Buying Euro.
Whether we you are interested in buying some EUR denominated equities, or an Airbus H125 helicopter or settling the acquisition of that piece of French or Italian real estate.
I think that the fat part of the trade has been seen.
The AUD/EUR is exhibiting its 5th moment over the past 10 years of being empirically stretched.
My secondary indicators support the exhaustion of this recent advance.
March 4, 2026
rob@karriasset.com.au
March 4, 2026 Leave a comment
In baseball, hitters tend to chase high fastballs, often because the ball looks larger due to its proximity to the batter’s eyes.
The higher spin and rising velocity makes it difficult to catch up to the ball.
Also, the high fastball is often a set-up’ pitch.
Here is a picture of a high fastball that I’m gonna call the South Korea KOSPI equity index.
Gravity is a bitch and parabola’s look sexy while simultaneously being fun and dangerous.
March 4, 2026
rob@karriasset.com.au
March 2, 2026 Leave a comment
If you like a company and its stock price (not to be used in isolation of your other analysis) but here is an example and reminder of when to be steadfast when deciding whether you want to buy a stock such as Intuit INTU:US
March 2, 2026
rob@karriasset.com.au
March 1, 2026 Leave a comment
A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.
The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.
n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.
* denotes multiple week inclusion
Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
North American Hot Rolled Coil Steel
Oats *
Wheat *
PHP/USD *
CAC 40 equity index *
Overbought (RSI > 70)
LME Aluminium *
Tin
Gold in AUD, CAD, CHF, EUR, GBP, USD and ZAR *
AUD/CAD *
AUD/EUR *
AUD/IDR *
AUD/INR *
AUD/JPY *
AUD/SGD *
AUD/USD *
CHF/JPY
CNH/USD *
MYR/USD *
RMB *
Shanghai Composite
All World Developed ex USA *
Austria’s ATX Index *
Hungary’s BUX Index *
Dow Jones Transports *
Egypt’s EGX Index *
Spain’s IBEX *
Brazil’s BOVESPA *
Mexico’s IPC Index *
Nasdaq Biotech Index
Norway’s OBX Index *
Helsinki’s OMX *
Stockholm’s OMX *
Switzerland’s SMI Index
Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) *
Singapore’s STI Index
Israel’s TA-35
Nasdaq Transports *
Canada’s TSX Index *
FTSE 100 *
Poland’s WIG Index *
S&P Biotech Index
And the ASX Materials Index *
The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)
AUD/GBP *
Taiwan’s TAIEX *
South Korea’s KOSPI Index *
Nikkei 225 Index *
South Africa’s SA40 equity Index *
And Thailand SET Index *
Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
TBX
U.S. 3 year government bond yield
Copper/Gold Ratio
EUR/CHF
Oversold (RSI < 30)
Australian 10 year minus Aussie 2 year yield spread *
British 2 year government bond yield
London and CME Cocoa *
Sugar #16 *
EUR/AUD
JPY/AUD
USD/MXN *
USD/ZAR
The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)
GBP/AUD
NZD/AUD *
Notes & Ideas:
Government bond yields fell.
The Australian 10 year minus 2 year spread, mean reverted.
While the same U.S. spread has fallen for 4 weeks.
The last of the Japanese yields fell from overbought territory.
Canadian and Kiwi 10 year yields have fallen for 4 weeks.
British 2’s along with European 5, 10 & 20 year yields have fallen for 5 weeks, as have Belgian, Danish and Dutch 10 year yields.
Equities were mixed.
Malaysia’s KLSE left overbought territory, while a few others moved into an overbought quinella.
The All World Developed-ex USA is working a streak of 14 weeks of higher consecutive closing prices.
CAC, DAX, Helsinki and TSX have risen for 4 straight weeks.
The OBX, SMI, FTSE 100 are in a 5 week winning streak.
While the ASX Financials fell and snapped its 4 week winning streak.
Thailand’s SET is in a 7 week winning streak and has risen 15% over the past 4 weeks.
The Nikkei 225 has returned 10% in the pats 4 weeks.
South Korea’s KOSPI has soared 21% in 3 weeks.
Brazil’s BOVESPA fell and broke a 7 week run.
The TA35 fell and ended 8 weeks of higher prices.
EGX & STI both fell and snapped their 9 weeks of advance.
The SOX snapped its 10 weeks of consecutive advance.
Commodities were active amongst a concentrated group.
Tin, Oils, Distillates, Platinum, Silver, Orange Juice and Corn were the notable gainers.
Cocoa, Coffee, Cocoa, Lumber, Tin and Uranium were amongst the decliners.
Coal isn’t overbought, this week.
Cocoa mean reverted.
Natural Gas has fallen for 4 weeks.
Soybeans and Gold (across various currencies) have risen for 4 weeks.
U.S. HRC Steel is in a 6 week winning streak.
The Copper/Gold Ratio has closed at its lowest level since February 1990 and it’s Monthly oversold reading is worth noting.
Richards Bay Coal fell and snapped a 7 week winning streak.
And U.S. Gulf Urea prices have risen for 12 weeks.
Currencies were busy.
Nearly all Yen pairs have left the extremes.
AUD/CAD, AUD/USD and AUD/ZAR have risen for 5 weeks.
AUD/SGD has closed higher for the 6th consecutive week.
AUD/GBP and AUD/IDR has climbed for 7 weeks.
AUD/EUR in 9 week rising streak.
CAD/GBP has risen for 4 weeks.
GBP/AUD is an oversold quinella and competed a mean reversion.
While the AUD/JPY fell and snapped its 5 week winning run.
BRL/USD fell 0.1% which was enough to break its 6 week advance.
CHF/AUD rose to break is 7 weeks of decline.
And the Filipino Peso has climbed for 4 weeks against the USD.
The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;
Bloomberg Commodity Index 1.7%, Brent Crude 1.8%, Baltic Dry Index 4.8%, Lean Hogs 2.2%, Copper 2.7%, Heating Oil 4.8%, U.S. HRC Steel 2.3%, Tin 24.1%, Nickel 2.8%, Orange Juice 6.8%, Platinum 9.1%, Gasoil 2.7%, Silver in AUD 10.3%, Silver in USD 10.8%, Gold in AUD 2.9%, Gold in CAD 3.1%, Gold in CHF 2.4%, Gold in EUR 3%, Gold in GBP 3.3%, Gold in USD 3.3%, Corn 2.5%, Rice 2.2%, Soybeans 1.5%, Wheat 1.9%, Shanghai Composite 2%, All World Developed (ex USA) 1.8%, MIB 1.6%, TAIEX 5.4%, KOSPI 7.5%, Nikkei 225 3.6%, PSE 2.3%, SA40 4.8%, SET 3.7%, TSX 1.5%, FTSE 100 2.1%, Vietnam 3.1%, XBI 2.1%, XMJ 7.4% and the ASX Small Caps rose 1.8%.
The group of largest decliners from the week included;
Australian Coking Coal (1.8%), Rotterdam Coal (1.7%), LME Cocoa (10.4%), CBOT Cocoa (19.1%), Arabica Coffee (1.7%), Lumber (3.5%), Cattle (4%), Newcastle Coal (1.7%), Natural Gas (3.5%), Uranium (3.5%), Oats (1.5%), KBW Banks (5.9%), China A50 (2%), EGX (2.9%), S&P Small Cap 600 (1.5%), KLSE (2.1%), KRE Regional Banks (7.1%), KSE (3%), Nifty (1.5%), OMX Copenhagen (4.7%), Sensex (1.8%), SOX (2%) and Israel’s TA-35 fell 2.5%.
March 1, 2026
By Rob Zdravevski
February 25, 2026 Leave a comment
I listened to an interview with a fund manager whose portfolio contains a large portion of major software stocks say, “they didn’t foresee such a decline in these large software names”.
Are you kidding me !
I saw it and most of the rest of did too.
I’ll keep it simple.
The circles in the attached studies are saying, “you have no business buying this stock, if you are a medium to longer term investor”.
The subsequent reminder is that gravity is real as is mean reversion.
p.s. medium term is longer than 1 month…..
February 25, 2026
rob@karriasset.com.au
February 22, 2026 Leave a comment
A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.
The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.
n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.
* denotes multiple week inclusion
Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
Richards Bay Coal *
WTI and Brent Crude Oil
Oats
Wheat
PHP/USD
CAC 40 equity index
Overbought (RSI > 70)
Australian 3 year government bond yields
Japanese 2 & 5 year government bond yields *
Australian Coking Coal *
Aluminium
Gold in AUD, CAD, CHF, EUR, GBP, USD and ZAR *
AUD/CAD *
AUD/EUR *
AUD/IDR *
AUD/INR *
AUD/JPY *
AUD/SGD *
AUD/USD *
CLP/USD *
CNH/USD *
MYR/USD *
RMB *
All World Developed ex USA *
Austria’s ATX Index *
Hungary’s BUX Index *
Dow Jones Transports *
Spain’s IBEX *
Brazil’s BOVESPA *
Taiwan’s TAIEX *
Malaysia’s KLSE *
South Korea’s KOSPI Index *
Mexico’s IPC Index *
Nasdaq Biotech Index
Nikkei 225 Index *
Norway’s OBX Index *
Helsinki’s OMX *
Stockholm’s OMX *
South Africa’s SA40 equity Index *
Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) *
Singapore’s STI Index
Israel’s TA-35
Nasdaq Transports *
Canada’s TSX Index *
FTSE 100 *
Poland’s WIG Index *
Türkiye’s BIST *
And the ASX Materials Index *
The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)
Rotterdam Coal *
AUD/GBP *
Egypt’s EGX Index *
And Thailand SET Index *
Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
U.S. 2 year government bond yield
Arabica Coffee
Oversold (RSI < 30)
Australian 10 year minus Aussie 2 year yield spread
Chilean 10 year government bond yield
London and CME Cocoa *
Sugar #16 *
CAD/AUD
USD/CNH *
USD/MXN *
The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)
USD/ZAR *
London and CME Cocoa *
NZD/AUD *
Notes & Ideas:
Government bond yields were mixed.
The U.S. 5 year minus 5 year breakeven inflation rate spread rose and broke a 7 week losing streak.
Belgian and Danish 10 year yields have fallen for 4 weeks.
British 2, 3 & 5 year yields have also declined for 4 weeks.
The U.S. 3 month bill isn’t oversold anymore.
And the Australian 10 year minus Aussie 5 year spread, mean reverted.
Equities were mostly higher.
Many remain in extreme overbought territory.
The OBX, SMI, FTSE 100 and ASX Financials are in a 4 week winning streak.
Thailand’s SET is in a 6 week winning streak.
Brazil’s BOVESPA has risen for 7 weeks.
The TA35 have climbed for 8 weeks.
EGX & STI have climbed for 9 weeks.
The SOX have risen for 10 weeks.
South Korea’s KOSPI has advance in 8 of its 9 recent weeks.
The All World Developed-ex USA is working a streak of 13 weeks of higher consecutive closing prices.
The S&P MidCap 400 is nearing an overbought reading.
And Chile’s IGPA dropped out of overbought territory.
Commodities were active amongst a concentrated group.
Coal, Oils, Distillates, Precious Metals, Wheat and Oats were the notable gainers.
Cocoa, Coffee, Lumber, Tin, Orange Juice & Rice were amongst the decliners.
The Copper/Gold Ratio has closed at its lowest level since February 1990 and it’s Monthly oversold reading is worth noting.
Richards Bay Coal has climbed for 7 weeks.
North American Hot Coiled Rolled Steel is in a 5 week winning streak.
Iron Ore rose and broke a 6 week losing streak.
Sugar rose and snapped a 4 weeks of losses.
And U.S. Gulf Urea prices have risen for 11 weeks.
Currencies were busy.
Nearly all Yen pairs have left the extremes.
AUD/CAD, AUD/USD and AUD/ZAR have risen for 5 weeks.
AUD/SGD has closed higher for the 6th consecutive week.
AUD/GBP and AUD/IDR has climbed for 7 weeks.
AUD/EUR in 9 week rising streak.
CAD/GBP has risen for 4 weeks.
GBP/AUD is an oversold quinella and competed a mean reversion.
While the AUD/JPY fell and snapped its 5 week winning run.
BRL/USD fell 0.1% which was enough to break its 6 week advance.
CHF/AUD rose to break is 7 weeks of decline.
And the Filipino Peso has climbed for 4 weeks against the USD.
The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;
Rotterdam Coal 2.7%, Bloomberg Commodity Index 2%, Brent Crude 5.9%, WTI Crude 5.8%, Cotton 2.3%, Lean Hogs 2.6%, Heating Oil 7.7%, JKM LNG 1.9%, JKM LNG in Yen 6.8%, LME Aluminium 2.2%, Nickel 2.9%, Palladium 4.5%, Platinum 4.7%, Gasoline 4.8%, Sugar 3.8%, S&P GSCI 3.2%, CRB Index 1.5%, Gasoil 9%, Urea Middle East 1.6%, Silver in AUD 9.1%, Silver in USD 9.3%, Gold in CAD 1.8%, Gold in CHF 2.4%, Gold in EUR 2%, Gold in GBP 2.6%, Gold in ZAR 1.9%, Oats 6.2%, Wheat 5.8%, AEX 2.4%, ATX 3.3%, KBW 1.7%, CAC 2.5%, DAX 1.4%, DJ Transports 2.6%, IBEX 2.9%, TAIEX 5.7%, Nasdaq Composite 1.5%, KOSPI 5.5%, Nasdaq 100 1.1%, OBX 3.3%, Helsinki 3%, Stockholm 2%, PX 2.7%, SA40 2%, SET 3.5%, SMI 1.9%, SOX 1.5%, STI 1.6%, TA35 1.5%, Nasdaq Transports 3%, TSX 2.3%, FTSE 100 2.3%, VN Index 3.9%, S&P Biotech Index 1.6%, ASX Financials 2.8%, ASX 200 1.8%, ASX Industrials 3.1% and the ASX Small Caps rose 2.3%.
The group of largest decliners from the week included;
LME Cocoa (11.9%), CBOT Cocoa (13.5%), Arabica Coffee (4.2%), Lumber (3.4%), Tin (7.9%), Natural Gas (6%), Orange Juice (7.7%), Robusta Coffee (6.3%), Dutch TTF Gas (2.9%), Rice (7.3%), Pakistan;s KSE (3.6%), and Türkiye’s BIST fell 1.7%
February 22, 2026
By Rob Zdravevski
February 19, 2026 Leave a comment
Around 2009, Caterpillar’s stock price was trading between $25 – $38 per share.
Today, CAT is trading at $752 per share.
Investors who bought Caterpillar stock within that 5 month trough during late 2008 and early 2009 and continued to hold (for the next 17 years) have seen a 20x – 30x return on their money.
I can safely say, that no commercial, industrial or residential real estate asset has come close to producing such a return over a similar period.
Incidentally, investors in Caterpillar didn’t need to pay for insurance, repairs, maintenance, real estate agents costs or property taxes over that time…….
February 19, 2026
rob@karriasset.com.au
p.s. allow some variance when buying in the depths of a trough
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