rob zdravevski's blog

If you don’t know, then you don’t know !

This is a very familiar scenario amongst Australian resources companies.

And the stockbrokers will still convince their clients to pour money into it.

Peak Diesel

For a couple weeks in September 2026, my Macro Extremes publication highlighted overbought extremes in the prices of various fuel products.

Macro Extremes (week ending September 11, 2026)

Such as Gasoil. Let’s call it Diesel…..

During the middle weeks of September 2026, the forward contract of the Gasoil crack spreadwas easily spending time around $94.

My empirical checklist said that it was a) time to sell or b) don’t buy.

Even at today’s price of $78, I think that the price of this commodity will decline a further 50%.

November 11, 2026

rob@karriasset.com.au

Get some pork on your fork?

For the 6th time in 55 years, Pork prices are registering some notable extremes.

November 11, 2026

rob@karriasset.com.au

Reviewing recent call on British 30’s

Over 2 months ago, I wrote the note below predicting that the ‘fat part’ of the move in British 30 year yields (at 4.88%0 had been seen.

Within the note, I gave it a little wriggle room of trading up to 5.08% in the near term”.

Any trade today in UK Gilts is futile

Well, it traded up to 5.05%.

For now, I’ll look for the yield of the British 30’s to come back to the 4.10% area.

Following that consolidation, my call will be that yields make a new move higher.

November 11, 2026

rob@karriasset.com.au

China’s largest export will be inflation

I think that China’s Producer Price Index is in the last months of this advance.

While I can see this index register a reading of 7.6%, extrapolating them much higher than that is folly.

More importantly, I expect China’s PPI to settle and spend time at a higher level than normal.

This is one illustration of how China will be an exporter of inflation.

November 10, 2026

rob@karriasset.com.au

Checking the state of Oil

Many, had no business being long WTI Crude at $100 or above,

for now I look for the front month to trade down to $77.60 into the mid-December 2026 timeframe,

and all the effects that will provide.

November 10, 2026

Reading the junk yields tape

The junkiest of the junk are registering something seen for the 6th time in the past 30 years.

November 10, 2026

How Is Your Fund Manager Incentivised?

Most investors check a fund’s past returns. Fewer check how the manager gets paid.

Consider a fund heavily exposed to the AI trade: semiconductors, data centres, the usual names. Now imagine if that fund closes this year with a 15% loss?

Many performance fee structures include a high watermark and a hurdle rate.

Under a typical structure, the manager earns no performance fee until investors recover their losses and clear the hurdle.

After a 15% fall, that could mean that they fund requires a gain of roughly 25% the following year, before any performance fee is earned.

Understandably, the management fee is still charged throughout.

Think about the incentives. A manager facing that arithmetic may be tempted to concentrate further, add leverage, or swing for the fences.

The alternative is working for a year or two with no performance fee at all.

Some managers in that position simply close the fund and launch a new one with a clean watermark, leaving investors holding the losses.

None of this means every manager behaves this way.

Read the fee section of the PDS. It tells you what the manager is really paid to do.

“Show me the incentive and I’ll show you the outcome” – Charlie Munger

November 10, 2026

rob@karriasset.com.au

Don’t be deceived by a Forward P/E Ratio

Some charts are saying the Nasdaq 100 is at its cheapest in 4 years……based on its forward P/E Ratio.

Apparently, today, the ‘forward P/E’ is a reading of 19.

But 2 months ago, when that P/E Ratio was 20, it was a 4 year low.

But a month ago, that P/E Ratio was 19.5 and it was a 4 year low.

Yet, over the past 4 weeks, the Nasdaq 100 has declined 13%.

So, how’s your P/E Ratio theory looking?

See where I’m coming from?

The Nasdaq 100 may, then, be cheap when it falls a further 25% from today’s price of 27,000 points.

I’ll see you all at 20,250 points.

And even then, the Nasdaq 100 will only be at a 2 year low…..irrespective what the ‘forward P/E Ratio’ decides to be.

Funnily, pundits and politicians are suddenly concerned about the nation’s citizens pension and retirement account balances should the collective Mag 7 and AI cohort trade, unwind.

Perhaps, too much money is invested with money managers and funds who are neck-deep in the world’s most crowded trade?

Makes me think of the Gordon Gecko line, “Because they’re sheep — and sheep get slaughtered”.

November 9, 2026

rob@karriasset.com.au

Rob’s look at the U.S. unemployment rate

Last Friday, it was important that the U.S. unemployment rate fell, albeit by the tiniest amount.