rob zdravevski's blog

The Fed still won’t allow natural price discovery

About the Fed’s recent meddling with the 30 year bond…..

from my note in 2020, featuring a Seth Klarman quote;

“Central banks, led by the Fed, continue to be the predominant driver of financial markets. By holding down interest rates, they influence investors to bid up the prices of securities, irrespective of the economic backdrop. By maintaining these seemingly never-ending policies and wilfully ignoring developing bubbles, the Fed has engineered a strong market recovery even as the unemployment rate tests Great Depression levels……..Investors are being infantilised by the relentless Federal Reserve activity. It’s as if the Fed considers them foolish children, unable to rationally set the prices of securities so it must intervene.

When the market has a tantrum, the benevolent Fed has a soothing yet enabling response.

As with the 30-year-olds still living in their parents’ basements, we can only wonder whether the markets will ever be expected to make it on their own.”

The Fed won’t allow natural price discovery

August 27, 2026

rob@karriasset.com.au

Various time at the Austal party

I open every investment committee presentation by reminding attendees about the magnetic force of mean reversion.

It’s terrific at telling the time of any party.

Today’s example features Australian shipbuilding company, Austal. (ASX:ASB).

August 27, 2026

rob@karriasset.com.au

Aussie inflation is not at dangerous levels

The Australian inflation rate is telling me that Aussie equities are still in good shape.

Whether the stated rate is true, remains a different question.

August 27, 2026

rob@karriasset.com.au

Macro Extremes (week ending August 21, 2026)

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Australian 10 year minus 2 year government bond yield spread

Danish and Spanish 10 year government bond yields

Palm Oil

Sugar #16 *

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Japanese 10-year bond yields *

CNH/USD *

COP/USD *

North European Rolled Steel *

U.S. Midwest Hot Rolled Coiled Steel *

Rice

Heating Oil Crack Spread *

Hungary’s BUX Index *

Singapore’s Strait Times Index *

Canada’s TSX Index *

Poland’s WIG Index *

And the XBI biotech index

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Japanese 2 and 5-year bond yield *

Sugar

And the IBB and NBI biotech ETF’s

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Chinese 10 year government bond yield

CHF/AUD *

CHF/CAD *

USD/MXN

And Mexico’s IPC Index *

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

USD/CNH

Lean Hogs

Iron Ore CFR China

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

Shanghai Rebar Steel

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields rose.

Including U.S. corporate bond yields.

This week features only a few entries, but many others are nearing overbought extremes.

Indonesian 10-year bond yields have fallen for 4 weeks.

Chinese 10-year bond yields rose and snapped 4 weeks of decline.

Japanese 2-year bond yields have risen for 6 weeks.

Equities were mixed, again.

Many of last week’s streaks have been broken.

The remaining few include.

OMX Copenhagen has closed higher for 4 consecutive weeks.

OMX Helsinki has risen for 5 weeks.

The OBX is in a 6-week winning streak.

While Singapore’s Strait Times fell and snapped its 7-week advance.

Commodities prices were firmer.

Coal, Oils, Gases, Precious Metals, Sugar and a bunch of Softs were the notable gainers.

Only Shanghai Rebar and Naptha cracks were amongst the largest decliners.

Brent Crude, LNG JKM as priced in Yen & Heating Oil have soared 12% over the past fortnight.

Cotton and Uranium are in a 5-week winning streak.

Copper, HRC Steel and Tin broke their respective streaks of 4, 6 & 7 weeks of higher prices.

While Lean Hogs have fallen for 5 weeks.

Currencies were active.

The Aussie was firmer, again.

AUD/SGD has risen for 4 weeks.

The AUD/USD is in a 7-week winning streak.

The Loonie was mixed.

While the CAD/USD is in a 4-week winning streak.

The Euro was stronger having climbed for 4 weeks against the USD.

The Colombian Peso is in a new 5-week winning streak in amongst an advance of 13 weeks over the past 14.

The Yen was notably weaker.

The USD has fallen for 4 weeks against the DKK.

It has also slumped for 5 weeks versus the Mexican Peso.

And the USD/KRW completed a mean reversion.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Australian Coking Coal 3.6%, Rotterdam Coal 2.2%, Bloomberg Commodity Index 3.8%, Brent Crude 6.6%, Cocoa 4.5%, WTI Crude 5.7%, Cotton 4.2%, Palm Oil 6.5%, Heating Oil 5.3%, JKM LNG 7.2%, Arabica Coffee 2.7%, LNG in Yen 7.3%, Newcastle Coal 4.6%, Natural Gas 1.5%, Nickel 1.9%, Orange Juice 6.6%, Palladium 1.9%, Platinum 7.9%, Gasoline 4.9%, Sugar 6.1%, Sugar #16 2.4%, S&P GSCI 4.5%, Dutch TTF Gas 7.2%, Gasoil 5.5%, Uranium 2.2%, Silver 6.6%, Gold 5.2%, Corn 5.4%, Rice 8.4%, Soybeans 3.9%, Wheat 3.6%, Gasoil crack spread 2.2%, Heating crack spread 2%, IDX 1.9%, HSCEI 3.5%, Hang Seng 3.6%, IBB 7.7%, Bovespa 2.5%, Mexico 2.1%, NBI 7.1%, South Africa 40 3.9%, IGPA 2.7%, Vietnam 2.3%, XBI 5.3%, BIST 2.4% and the ASX Materials rose 5.6%.

The group of largest decliners for the week included; 

Shanghai Rebar (3%), Naptha crack spread (26.3%), ATX (1.5%), KBW Banks (4.1%), CAC (1.8%), FCATC (2.3%), MIB (1.7%), S&P SmallCap 600 (2.1%), Russell 2000 (1.7%), Nasdaq Composite (2.1%), KRE Regional Banks (3.9%), KSE (1.6%), S&P MidCap 400 (2.4%), Nasdaq 100 (2.5%), Nikkei 225 (3.9%), SOX (5.5%), S&P 500 (1.4%), Nasdaq Transports (1.9%), ASX Financials (5.1%) and ASX Industrials fell 2.1%.

August 23, 2026

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au

Japan’s inflation rate to head higher

For inflation watchers, today’s news is that Japan’s inflation rate for July 2026 rose to 1.9% (from June ’26’s 1.6%).

I think Japan’s inflation rate moves toward the 2.7% region.

August 21, 2026

rob@karriasset.com.au

Tracking Australian consumer confidence

In July 2026, I was looking for extremes in pessimism in Westpac–Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index.

There wasn’t enough pessimism.

More pessimism is required please

Today, this index rose.

It is not high enough to stifle the advance in Australian equities.

There is no hubris in Australian consumer sentiment………and so the dance with equities continues.

Allocators can stay long, for now.

August 19, 2026

rob@karriasset.com.au

Anti-gravity?

Workday (WDAY US) and many other stocks caught in the early-2026 “AI is going to kill everyone” selloff are now testing the underside of their longer-term moving averages.

In Workday’s case, anyone who has been long since November 2025 is now breaking even.

August 17, 2026

rob@karriasset.com.au

Macro Extremes (week ending August 14, 2026)

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Sugar

Sugar #`16

CAD/CHF

EUR/CHF

Czechia’s PX Index *

And the ASX 200 Index *

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Japanese 10-year bond yields *

U.S. 5 year minus 5-year breakeven inflation rate spread *

U.S. 10 year minus 10-year breakeven inflation rate spread

North European Rolled Steel *

U.S. Midwest Hot Rolled Coiled Steel *

Heating Oil Crack Spread *

CNH/USD *

COP/USD *

USD/HKD

Netherland’s AEX Index *

Austria’s ATX Index *

KBW Bank Index *

Hungary’s BUX Index *

Dow Jones Industrials Index *

Spain’s IBEX Index *

S&P Smal Cap 600

Russell 2000

S&P MidCap 400

Singapore’s Strait Times Index *

And Poland’s WIG Index *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Japanese 2 and 5-year bond yield *

AUD/CHF

And Canada’s TSX Index *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Mexico’s IPC Index

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

None

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

None

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields rose.

The exception was Aussie yields and U.S. 2’s and 3’s.

Chinese 10-year bond yields have fallen for 4 weeks.

Equities were mixed.

The All Developed Worlds ex USA, ATX, BUX, DAX, OMX Helsinki, OX, Eurostoxx 50 and WIG have risen for 4 weeks.

The FTSE 250 and OBX are in a 5-week winning streak.

While Singapore’s Strait Times has risen for 7 weeks.

Indonesia’s IDX, FTSE 100 and ASX Financials fell and snapped their respective winning weekly runs.

The KOSPI rose to break its 7 weeks of decline.

And the BOVESPA has fallen 6.3% in the past 2 weeks.

Commodities prices were mixed, again.

Coal, Crude Oil, Gases, Distillates and Sugar and Softs were the notable gainers.

Shipping Rates, Coffee, Palladium and Urea were amongst the largest decliners.

Cotton, Copper and Uranium is in a 4-week winning streak.

U.S. Hot Rolled Coiled Steel has climbed for 5 weeks.

Tin has advanced for 7 weeks.

Natural Gas rose and snapped a 6-week losing streak.

Lean Hogs have fallen for 4 weeks.

And Lumber has declined 14% in 3 weeks.

Currencies were active.

The Aussie and Loonie were firmer, again.

The AUD/USD is in a 7-week winning streak.

Lots of Swiss Franc pairs appear in this week’s list of extremes.

COP/USD and MXN/USD have risen for 4 consecutive weeks.

Euro was mainly higher again.

Yen was weaker.

And the USD rose against the Korean Won to break 6 weeks of losses.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Australian Coking Coal 4.4%, Richards Bay Coal 3.8%, Rotterdam Coal 4.4%, Bloomberg Commodity Index 2.8%, Brent Crude 6%, WTI Crude 5.4%, Heating Oil 6.7%, LNG in Yen 4.8%, Lithium Carbonate 3.4%, Lithium Hydroxide 2.4%, Newcastle Coal 3.2%, Natural Gas 2.7%, Orange Juice 1.8%, Sugar #16 7.1%, S&P GSCI 2.7%, CRB Index 2.8%, Dutch TTF Gas 10.6%, Gasoil 3.8%, Silver 1.8%, Corn 4.6%, Oats 4.3%, Wheat 5.5%, Gasoil crack spread 10.1%, Heating crack spread 5.5%, Gasoline crack spread 5.5%, AD02 1.5%, KBW Banks 2%, TAIEX 3.6%, KRE Regional Banks 2.3%, KOSPI 11.5%, BIST 2.9%, Nikkei 225 4.7%, OBX 3%, Copenhagen 2.9% and Helsinki’s OMX rose 1.8%.

The group of largest decliners for the week included; 

Baltic Dry Index (7.3%), Arabica Coffee (6.3%), Lumber (1.9%), Cattle (2.8%), Palladium (3.8%), Gasoline (2.7%), Robusta Coffee (4.4%), Urea U.S. Gulf (2.4%), Rice (1.8%), FCATC (4.1%), HSCEI (2.2%), Hang Seng (2.2%), BOVESPA (3.2%), MOEX (6.4%), Mexico (3.8%), SA40 (3.1%), IGPA (1.7%), FTSE 100 (1.4%), Vietnam (2.2%), ASX Financials (3.2%), ASX 200 (1.6%), ASX Materials (1.8%), ASX Industrials (3%) and Naptha crack spread sunk 40.3%.

August 16, 2026

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au

My read on the U.S. inflation rate

For now, the U.S. inflation rate remains in a (weak) upward trend which is placing a lid on the advance across the broader equity market.

This should concern those investing in that ‘broader’ market.

In other words, if your collective portfolios (including ETF’s and managed funds) have positions totalling more than 200, 300 or 400 stocks…..then I’d say that you’re invested in the broader market.

The last 2 months of decline in the YoY CPI figure is encouraging for the continued advance in equities but I think it would need to register a reading of below 3% before I change my mind and its direction of trend.

August 13, 2026

rob@karriasset.com.au

Silver – still not cheap enough

I’ve been a seller of Silver recently based a host of metrics and empirical analysis and here is another to occaisionally reference.

It’s the Gold to Silver Ratio.

Today, Silver should bounce to ~ US$69. Currently it’s US$65.30.

But it’s still not ‘cheap’ and too early to safely buy.

August 13, 2026

rob@karriasset.com.au