rob zdravevski's blog

Macro Extremes (week ending June 5, 2026)

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Brazilian 10 year bond yield

Copper/Gold Ratio

U.S. 5 year bond yield minus U.S. 5 year breakeven inflation rate

Copper

USD/KRW

 Singapore’s Strait Times Index *

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Japanese & Korean 10-year government bond yields *

Richards Bay Coal

Aluminium *

Rubber *

AUD/IDR *

TAIEX *

Finland’s OMX-H *

And Thailand’s SET Index *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Australian Coking Coal *

USD/IDR *

KOSPI *

Nikkei 225 *

SOX *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

U.S. 30 year minus U.S. 10-year govn’t bond yield spread *

Corn

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 5-year govn’t bond yield spread *

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

Indonesia’s IDX Composite Index *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

IDR/USD

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields rose.

Except for Chilean 2’s, Japanese and Turkish 10’s and Japanese 30’s.

Chilean 2-year bond yield has declined for 4 weeks.

And the U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 5-year yield spread rose and broke a 5-week losing streak.

Equities were weaker.

Many more indices have exited the overbought list.

Shanghai Composite, IDX and the Hang Seng have fallen for 4 weeks.

Indonesia’s IDX has declined for 7 weeks.

The Dow Jones Transports has climbed 8.5% in 3 weeks.

Thailand’s SET is in a 6-week winning streak.

The S&P 500 fell and broke its 9-week winning streak.

While Brazil’s BOVESPA is in a 8 week losing streak.

Commodities had a bias for weakness, again.

Coal, Crude Oil, LNG, Lumber and Distillates were the notable gainers.

Precious Metals, Lithium, Coffee, oats, Corn and Shipping Rates were amongst the decliners.

Aluminium, Rotterdam Coal and Cotton are in 4-week winning streaks.

Australian Coking Coal has climbed for 7 weeks.

Platinum, Silver and Gold have declined for 4 weeks.

Iron Ore prices have sunken for 5 weeks.

Lean Hogs have fallen for 5 of the past 6 weeks.

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel has declined for 6 straight weeks.

And U.S. Gulf Urea prices are in a 7-week losing streak.

Currencies were quiet.

The Aussie fell.

The Loonie was mixed, again.

CHF/JPY fell and snapped its 4-week winning streak.

CNH/USD eased out of overbought territory.

GBP was mixed.

The Yen firmed.

While the JPY/USD has fallen for 4 weeks.

And the USD/IDR has risen for 4 weeks.

CHF/JPY fell and snapped its 4-week winning streak.

And the EUR/CHF rose and broke its 5-week losing streak.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Australian Coking Coal 2.5%, Richards Bay Coal 4.8%, Rotterdam Coal 2.9%, Brent Crude 2.2%, WTI Crude 3.6%, Heating Oil 2.8%, JKM LNG 2.6%, Lumber 3.5%, JKM LNG 4.8%, Newcastle Coal 5.4%, Dutch TTF Gas 5.4%, Gasoil 5.4%, KBW Banks 2.6%, DJ Transports 2.4% and the Philippines PSE rose 2.9%.

The group of largest decliners for the week included; 

Bloomberg Commodity Index (1.8), Baltic Dry Index (7.5%), Cocoa (4.1%), Cotton (3.2%), Copper (1.6%), Arabica Coffee (7.2%), Lithium Carbonate (8.8%), Lithium Hydroxide (5.5%), Aluminium (2.5%), Natural Gas (1.9%), Nickel (2.8%), Palladium (8.6%), Platinum (6.8%), Robusta Coffee (4.6%), Tin (4.9%), China Iron Ore (2.4%), Urea U.S. Gulf (3.1%), Silver in AUD (8.2%), Silver in USD 10%), Gold fell b/w 2.8% and 4.6% with USD being the worst, Corn (6.6%), Oats 12.9%, Rice (1.7%), Soybeans (5.5%), Wheat (5%), CSI 300 (1.5%), All World Developed ex USA (1.9%), China A50 (3%), IDX (8.7%), DAX (1.4%), IBB (2.2%), Bovespa (2.7%), Russell 2000 (3%), Nasdaq Composite (4.7%), KSE (2%), KOSPI (3.7%), Mexico (2.6%), NBI (2.5%), Nasdaq 100 (4.5%), Copenhagen (1.6%), SOX (4.7%), IGPA (4.4%), S&P 500 (2.6%), SA40 (3.2%), IPSA (4.8%), TA35 (4.2%), WIG (1.7%), XBI (5.9%), ASX Financials (2.1%), ASX Materials (2.4%) and the ASX Small Caps fell 1.6%.

June 7, 2026

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au

USD still rising against the Yen

USD/JPY is not at the major extremes seen in other Yen pairs.
My read of the tape suggests that it moves to 167 (vs. current 160), before assessing its next shape.

rob@karriasset.com.au

June 7, 2026

When the IPO’s come to town…..

just remember when a company decides to conduct an IPO, they’re not really doing you any favours

and……..

the stockbrokers or wealth managers who are selling it to you, are not really your friends.

The price of Gold isn’t looking too shiny

The price of Gold (and Silver) isn’t looking too shiny.

June 5, 2026

Corn still heading lower

Although the price of Corn is hitting some weekly extremes, my work suggests that it goes much lower.

Buyers should stay in the spot market.

And it’s good for companies who make tortillas.

June 5, 2026

’tis the season for IPO’s

A quick search tells me, “the overall (U.S. equity) market produced 446 IPOs with gross proceeds of $108.15 billion in 2000, compared to 537 IPOs raising $95.33 billion in 1999”

Knowing it’s 26 years on, but I consider Alphabet’s announcement of a $80bn equity raise is the ‘same’ as an IPO.

SpaceX is seeking to raise $75 billion in its upcoming IPO.

Very soon, we’ll find out how much Anthropic wishes to raise,

and it’s likely OpenAI follows soon.

And so here is a study of where the Nasdaq 100 is trading as percentage above its 4 year moving average.

June 2, 2026

AUD strong enough vs Swedish Krona

I think the Aussie Dollar will peak (for now) against the Swedish Krona.

At a 6.64 #AUDSEK, this makes that Swedish lake house cheaper?

June 1, 2026

Labelling the extremes

Updating the price action extremes in #IGO Limited

(original posts commenced August 21, 2021)

Time check for the S&P 500

May 27, 2026