Trying to hear what's not being said
November 10, 2026 Leave a comment
I think that China’s Producer Price Index is in the last months of this advance.
While I can see this index register a reading of 7.6%, extrapolating them much higher than that is folly.
More importantly, I expect China’s PPI to settle and spend time at a higher level than normal.
This is one illustration of how China will be an exporter of inflation.
November 10, 2026
rob@karriasset.com.au
November 10, 2026 Leave a comment
Many, had no business being long WTI Crude at $100 or above,
for now I look for the front month to trade down to $77.60 into the mid-December 2026 timeframe,
and all the effects that will provide.
November 10, 2026
November 10, 2026 Leave a comment
The junkiest of the junk are registering something seen for the 6th time in the past 30 years.
November 10, 2026
November 10, 2026 Leave a comment
Most investors check a fund’s past returns. Fewer check how the manager gets paid.
Consider a fund heavily exposed to the AI trade: semiconductors, data centres, the usual names. Now imagine if that fund closes this year with a 15% loss?
Many performance fee structures include a high watermark and a hurdle rate.
Under a typical structure, the manager earns no performance fee until investors recover their losses and clear the hurdle.
After a 15% fall, that could mean that they fund requires a gain of roughly 25% the following year, before any performance fee is earned.
Understandably, the management fee is still charged throughout.
Think about the incentives. A manager facing that arithmetic may be tempted to concentrate further, add leverage, or swing for the fences.
The alternative is working for a year or two with no performance fee at all.
Some managers in that position simply close the fund and launch a new one with a clean watermark, leaving investors holding the losses.
None of this means every manager behaves this way.
Read the fee section of the PDS. It tells you what the manager is really paid to do.
“Show me the incentive and I’ll show you the outcome” – Charlie Munger
November 10, 2026
rob@karriasset.com.au
November 9, 2026 Leave a comment
Some charts are saying the Nasdaq 100 is at its cheapest in 4 years……based on its forward P/E Ratio.
Apparently, today, the ‘forward P/E’ is a reading of 19.
But 2 months ago, when that P/E Ratio was 20, it was a 4 year low.
But a month ago, that P/E Ratio was 19.5 and it was a 4 year low.
Yet, over the past 4 weeks, the Nasdaq 100 has declined 13%.
So, how’s your P/E Ratio theory looking?
See where I’m coming from?
The Nasdaq 100 may, then, be cheap when it falls a further 25% from today’s price of 27,000 points.
I’ll see you all at 20,250 points.
And even then, the Nasdaq 100 will only be at a 2 year low…..irrespective what the ‘forward P/E Ratio’ decides to be.
Funnily, pundits and politicians are suddenly concerned about the nation’s citizens pension and retirement account balances should the collective Mag 7 and AI cohort trade, unwind.
Perhaps, too much money is invested with money managers and funds who are neck-deep in the world’s most crowded trade?
Makes me think of the Gordon Gecko line, “Because they’re sheep — and sheep get slaughtered”.
November 9, 2026
rob@karriasset.com.au
November 9, 2026 Leave a comment
Last Friday, it was important that the U.S. unemployment rate fell, albeit by the tiniest amount.
November 8, 2026 Leave a comment
A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.
The following assets, on a weekly timeframe, either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below their rolling mean.
NB: Pricing of commodity futures contracts considers only the immediate front-month contract.
* denotes multiple-week inclusion.
Extremes Above the Mean (At least 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)
CAD/AUD
GBP/AUD
USD/BRL
Ireland’s ISEQ Index
Mexico’s IPC Index
Denmark’s OMXC Index *
Switzerland’s SMI Index
Overbought (RSI > 70)
U.S. high yield bond index
JKM LNG in Yen *
Rice *
The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and >2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)
Indian 10-year government bond yield *
North American Hot Rolled Coil Steel
GBP/EUR *
Extremes Below the Mean (At least 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)
Korean 10-year bond yield
Palm Oil
Tin *
AUD/CAD
AUD/GBP
AUD/INR
AUD/SGD
BRL/USD *
All Worl Developed ex USA index
Taiwan’s TAIEX Index
Nasdaq Composite
Nasdaq 100
Nikkei 225
Thailand’s SET Index *
Philadelphia SOX Index
And Israel’s TA-35 Index
Oversold (RSI < 30)
Lumber
Lithium Hydroxide *
EUR/GBP
CSI 300 Index *
China A50 Index *
The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and >2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)
Chinese 10-year government bond yield
Lean Hogs *
EUR/GBP *
Indonesia’s IDX Composite
Notes & Ideas
Government Bond Yields Fell
A few more bond yields along with the U.S. 30-year mortgage rate are no longer overbought.
U.S. BB high yield has risen for 4 weeks.
IEF, IEI and TLT have closed higher for 5 weeks.
Austrian, Australian, Swiss, German, Danish, Finnish, Korean, Norwegian and Kiwi 10-year bond yields have fallen for 4 weeks.
As have the Aussie 10 year minus 2-year bond yield spread, Chilean 10 year minus 2-year bond yield spread, European 3-, 5-, 20- and 30-year yields and British 10-, 20- and 30-year yields.
The U.S. 5–7-year corporate bond yield spread, Japanese 10-year yield, TBT, TBX and U.S. 3, 5, 7-, 10-, 20- & 30-year yields along with the U.S. 5 year minus U.S. 3-month bill yield spread and U.S. 10 year minus EU 10-year bond yield spread also declined for 5 weeks.
Irish and Dutch 10-year bond yields, Japanese 5-year yield, U.S. 2’s, the U.S. 5 year minus U.S. inflation rate spread and the U.S. 10 year minus U.S. inflation rate spread have fallen for 6 weeks.
Equities Were Surprisingly Mixed, Again
Copenhagen and the SMI have risen for 5 weeks.
ASX Industrials are in a 6-week winning streak.
Inversely, the TAIEX, Nasdaq Composite, Nasdaq 100, SET and S&P 500 have declined for 4 weeks.
SOX has fallen for 5 weeks.
Shanghai Composite and FCATC rose and snapped a 6-week losing streak.
BIST rose and broke 7 weeks of losses.
China A50 is in a 13 week losing streak.
The All World Developed ex USA and KOSPI rose and snapped 4-week losing streak.
While the FCATC Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 rose and saw their respective winning streaks come to an end.
Commodity Prices Had a Lower Bias
Lithium, Nickel, Precious Metals and Orange Juice were the notable gainers.
Coal, Oil, Distillates, Palm Oil, Hogs, Tin, Sugar and Copper were amongst the largest decliners.
Copper, Oats and Soybeans have fallen for 4 weeks.
Cocoa and Hogs have declined for 5 weeks.
Corn is in a 6-week slump.
Wheat is in a 10-week losing streak.
Brent, Dutch TTF Gas and JKM LNG fell and broke winning runs.
Platinum and Palladium rose and snapped their 6-week run of losses.
And Lithium Carbonate rose and broke a 4-week losing streak.
Currencies Were Active
The Swissie and Euro were stronger.
The Aussie and Loonie were weaker.
The former has many pairs featured in this week’s list.
CAD winning streaks, listed last week, came to an end.
USD was mixed.
EUR/GBP has fallen for 6 weeks.
EUR/CHF has declined for 8 weeks.
CHN/USD fell and broke a 5-week winning streak.
While the USD/MXN pair fell and snapped 8 weeks of higher closes.
USD/MXN has closed higher for 8 weeks.
The Week’s Larger Advancers
The larger advancers over the past week comprised:
Baltic Dry Index 3.4%, Cotton 1.6%, Lithium Carbonate 6.8%, Natural Gas 3.5%, Nickel 7%, Orange Juice 5.5%, Palladium 3%, Platinum 7%, Robusta Coffee 2.1%, CFR Iron Ore 2%, Silver in AUD 8.3%, Silver in USD 5.7%, Gold 5%, Rice 2%, CSI 300 1.7%, CAC 2.1%, DFM 4.4%, EGX 3.1%, FCATC 5.7%, Tadawul 2.2%, HSCEI 5.2%, Hang Seng 5.1%, IBEX 3.8%, Dublin 3.4%, KSE 4.5%, Nifty 8.6%, OMXC 1.8%, PSE 1.4%, PSI 2.1%, SA40 5.3%, Sensex 8.8%, IGPA 2.5%, XMJ 1.8%, NXJ 2.4%, XSO 1.6% and BIST rose 6.7%.
The Week’s Larger Decliners
The group of largest decliners for the week included:
Australian Coking Coal (2.3%), Richards Bay Coal (4.7%), Rotterdam Coal (9.3%), Bloomberg Commodity Index (4.6%), Brent Crude (13.3%), Cocoa (5.5%), WTI Crude (12.8%), EHR (1.4%), Palm Oil (9%), Hogs (9.1%), Copper (3,8%), Heating Oil (7.4%), JKM LNG (4.1%), Coffee (2.5%), Lumber (3.4%), Urea U.S. Gulf (3.5%), Gasoil (7.7%), Oats (2.8%), Soybeans (3.3%), Wheat (2%), Gasoline Crack (4.2%), Japanese Naphtha (12.7%), All World Developed ex USA (2.9%), DJ Transport (2.7%) IBB (1.8%), S&P SmallCap 600 (1.9%), Russell 2000 (2%), TAIEX (12.2%), Nasdaq Composite (3.4%), Kospi (11.7%), S&P MidCap 400 (1.7%), Nasdaq 100 (4.9%), Nikkei 225 (9.3%), OBX (4.3%), SET (3.5%), SOX (12.2%), S&P 500 (2.7%), STI (3.7%), TA35 (2.9%) and XBI fell 2.4%.
November 8, 2026
By Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
November 6, 2026 Leave a comment
I think the risk/reward of being long fuel crack spreads is a bad bet.
Similar to semiconductors and DRAM (memory), fuel products are commodities.
November 6, 2026
rob@karriasset.com.au
November 6, 2026 Leave a comment
Over the weekend, in relation to the recent carnage seen in AI related stocks, I predict the media and investing pundits will publish the ‘buy the dip’ headline.
The song of the siren can lure in unweary investors and speculators during euphoria and despondency.
These recent notes of mine remain valid once this new song has finished playing.
November 6, 2026
rob@karriasset.com.au
November 4, 2026 Leave a comment
It is not a preposterous notion for NVIDIA’s stock price to decline to $120.
With a current market cap of $5 trillion.
Can you imagine the capital destruction?
More excitingly (apart from shorting the stock), is to imagine where those proceeds are deployed.
Imagine the effect of shoving $2 trillion of raised proceeds from this stock and at least $1 trillion from 4 other companies will have on other equity prices……
November 4, 2026
rob@karriasset.com.au
