Not owning Aussie banks has saved you money

For 5 years I have advised clients to steer clear of owning shares in Australian banks.

Telling people when to sell, avoid or hide, not only saves & protects their capital but isn’t displayed in their annual summary of portfolio returns.

Such analysis and advice is unquantifiable yet it has proven to be invaluable.

It remains a difficult concept to explain to prospective clients.

Here are the 5 year price charts of CBA & NAB.



Don’t own a home, own businesses

This chart sourced from shows the percentage of assets that people of differing “wealth brackets” tend to favour.

It may prove the theory that wealthier people allocate their money to assets and businesses whilst others tend to spend their money on “stuff”.

Also interesting is the significant weighting of money that the primary residence and vehicles categories account for amongst the first couple “wealth” bands.

This could prove why conversations around motor vehicle (sales, servicing, repairs, parts, insurance) and real estate (buying, selling, renting, furnishing, maintaining) are so prominent in our daily lives.

These two assets (or liabilities) are also enormous revenue raisers for governments. Just think of the registration fees, stamp duties, fuel excises, luxury car tax to mention a few.

I’d like to think that this data could provide the basis for our cultural and government propaganda surrounding the great dream of buying a house. For, if we believe in the “dream”, we’ll take out a notable mortgage to acquire a home and this will require us to stay in the workforce in order to service our debt, all in while, we are paying taxes and providing the labour force for the businesses which the wealthier bands of citizens own.

Maybe my conspiracy theory for the month.

Either way, I think the chart below is quite interesting.


Lithium stocks to release some steam

Lithium darling, Pilbara Minerals (PLS:ASX) looks like heading down to the 80 cents level

My view on the AUD

17 January, 2018
by Rob Zdravevski

The AUD is trading at 0.7980 and I feel that the current short term uptrend in the AUD is stretched.
Albeit it is a strong trend and still intact, the AUD/USD cross is overbought on many technical indicators. I expect a regression to its short term daily mean, which is approx. 0.7750;
before it resumes its rising trend.
Should the AUD close this week above 80 cents, then the chance of a pullback to 0.7750 weakens and I’ll look for it to test 0.8260, 0.8350 and then 0.8550.
Whereas a break below 0.7530 would signal the end of the uptrend and thus I’d call it a trend reversal.
The correlation of CRB (Commodities) Index to AUD is also high. Currently the CRB and the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are both exhibiting the similar trends, moving average and other technical traits as the AUD/USD cross.
Interestingly, I wrote the following to a client who asked for my view about the Aussie on Dec 15, 2017.
“It’s starting to form a new uptrend, albeit its yet to be confirmed as a strong trend yet.
With its current price of 0.7670, its initial target is 0.7770 and it breaks that then I expect it to test 0.7900
A weekly close below 0.7610 would nullify this view as it would resume a test of the 0.7500 level”

Not new highs for everyone

In a contrast to the Nasdaq hitting new highs and the fervour behind technology stocks, one of the giants of making the internet “work” and a former darling of the 1990’s tech boom; Cisco Systems (CSCO) is seeing its stock price ONLY NOW climb back to 16 year highs which were last seen in 2001. But don’t feel sorry for CSCO’s price, its market capitalisation today is more than 30% higher than the Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

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Has your house value tripled in 4.5 years?

Shares in Apple Inc. have……..

AAPL 8 year

Platinum Asset Management Global Outlook – Nov 2017

Kerr Nielsen and Andrew Clifford present their views to investors


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