rob zdravevski's blog

Still fancy commodities, but it’s in the timing

I like the ‘long’ commodity trade, particularly the ‘harder commodities’, but the beginning of the upward move began more than a year ago, and it wouldn’t have hurt to have gotten set earlier than that.

You’ll see an example of that in the chart of the Van Eck Australian Resource ETF pasted below.

At the beginning of the decade, I was a commodity bear and then in mid- 2023, I started writing about my ‘warming’ to commodities.

Commodity bullishness – illustrated

Now, I’m looking for a retracement.

Recently, cartwheels and backflips were being done when BHP’s share price was heralded as the largest capitalised company on the ASX.

Anyway, I think BHP’s stock price can decline at least 30% from its recent peak.

September 11, 2026

rob@karriasset.com.au

Gold price update – Sept 11, 2026

My June 19, 2026 Gold price call said the pullback was done.

An interim rally was indeed seen.

Gold price update

But my call of USD Gold visiting the US$3,100 region still stands.

September 11, 2026

rob@karriasset.com.au

The long and short of EU bond yields

EU 10 year bond yields are registering one of my overbought quinellas for the first time since September 2022.

They’ll appear in this weekend’s edition of my Macro Extremes.

For now, I’m recognising the upward momentum (which came into effect in late July ’26) as such but my call will be for this yield to pullback to 3% in the medium term, before seeing them settle into a new and higher atmosphere.

Overall, the EU 10 year bond yield is mimicking ‘shapes’ that I’m observing in the U.S. 10 year bond yield.

Incidentally, the U.S. 10 year bond yield is making shapes not seen since 1965.

September 11, 2026

rob@karriasset.com.au

European steel prices go from basement to penthouse

In the June 28, 2026 edition of Macro Extremes, North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel (EHR) appeared in the ‘oversold quinella’ category.

Macro Extremes (week ending June 26, 2026)

The front month of that commodity was trading around the EUR 540 mark.

This week, EHR is trading around EUR 740 and is now appears as entrant in the ‘overbought quinella’ section in the latest weekly edition of Macro Extremes.

That’ll do !

September 10, 2026

rob@karriasset.com.au

Prices tell us the temperature

ASX listed Pinnacle Investment Management owns approximately 35% of Metrics Credit Holdings.

This fact is not a design to pile onto a headline of woes.

Rather the study below of Pinnacle’s stock price reminds us of how prices (not narrative) tell us everything.

Furthermore, how parabolas honour mean reversion quicker than most and how prices can also revert while the mean converges.

September 10, 2026

rob@karriasset.com.au

The torching of private credit investors

Australia investors are slowly being torched by blindly following the blind into private credit funds or products.

Using the word ‘blind’, applies because I (we, us, them) don’t really know what’s inside and I don’t really think many investors have conducted their research and analysis.

But, many have been made to feel embarrassed (see sheep) if they have not invested in private credit.

And private credit is not an asset class, it’s a product offering or range. Debt (or fixed income) is the asset class and there are many other securities to choose from, if that’s your fancy.

In the past I have written and said, the suffix ‘private’ remains code for expensive, opaque, illiquid and sometimes it can proves difficult to leave. (see status exiles).

Think of private schools, private club, private banking etc etc.

It often annoys me when finance industry veterans start a sentence by saying, “I am old enough to remember…….”,

I have had the same disbelief with this current re-invention of debt products as I did when watching the CLO and CDO evolution between 2004 and 2007.

There are going to be a lot of broken portfolios.

and by the way, many, many years ago, this type of real estate lending was called either a first or second mortgage secured against one or two properties, with the funds being held or received in a solicitors trust account.

No one is curing cancer with this product range but they may be causing it.

September 10, 2026

Macro Extremes (week ending September 4, 2026)

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Austrian, Belgian, Czech, Danish, Spanish, Finnish, Dutch and Portuguese 10 year government bond yields

Australian 2, 3 and 10 year bond yields

Euro 2, 3, 5 and 20 year bond yields

The British yield curve

Australian Coking Coal

Rotterdam Coal

Baltic Dry Index

Palm Oil *

North American Hot Rolled Coiled Steel *

Corn *

Soybeans *

AUD/CAD *

AUD/THB *

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Japanese 10-year bond yield *

U.S. 5-year bond yield minus 5-year inflation breakeven rate spread *

North European Rolled Steel *

Heating Oil

JKM LNG in $ and ¥

Gasoline

Rice *

CNH/USD *

Austria’s ATX Index *

IBB and NBI Biotech Indices *

Norway’s OBX

Singapore’s Strait Times Index *

Canada’s TSX Index *

And Poland’s WIG Index *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Japanese 2- and 5-year bond yields

Richards Bay Coal

Sugar *

Gasoil crack spread

Heating Oil Crack Spread *

AUD/CHF *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

CAD/JPY

CHF/JPY

EUR/JPY

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

USD/KRW

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

CHF/AUD *

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields rose, again.

Austrian, Belgian, Czech, Danish, Spanish, Finnish, British, Dutch, Portuguese, Swedish and Irish 10 year yields have risen for 4 consecutive weeks.

As have U.S. 5, 7 and 10 year yields.

Australian 3-, 5- and 10-year yields, along with Japanese 2’s are in a 4-week winning streak.

U.S. 5-7 year corporate bond yields along with U.S. real rates have also closed higher over the past 4 weeks.

Japanese 2 year yields are in a 5 week winning streak,

While Japanese 30 year bond yields fell.

Equities were mixed.

The Shanghai Composite, CAC 40, China A50, MIB, Nifty, Sensex and Nasdaq Transports are in 4-week losing streaks.

OMX Copenhagen fell and snapped a run of 5 consecutive winning weeks.

OMX Helsinki also fell bringing its 6-week winning streak to an end.

The OBX is in an 8-week winning streak.

While the ASX Materials Index declined 5% and fell from an overbought extreme.  

Commodities prices were also mixed.

Coal, Oil, Distillates, Gases, Sugar and Rice were the notable gainers.

Cocoa, Cotton, Coffee, Lithium, Palladium, and Corn were amongst the largest decliners.

Rotterdam Coal, JKM LNG, Natural Gas, Gasoline, Dutch TTF, Corn, Soybeans, Gasoil and Heating Oil crack spreads are in 4-week winning streaks.

Australian Coking Coal prices have risen for 5 weeks.

Wheat fell and broke a 4-week winning streak.

Cotton and Uranium declined and snapped their respective 6-week winning streaks.

Cattle rose and end 4 weeks of losses.

Corn fell 6%, giving back one-third of the gains seen in the previous 3 weeks.

Rice and Soybeans have climbed 14% and 10% respectively, over the past 3 weeks.

Currencies were active.

The Aussie mainly higher.

AUD/EUR and IDR/USD are in a 5-week winning streak.

The Yen was firmer, which snapped the AUD/JPY 4 week winning run.

The Loonie was mixed.

The Swissie and Pound Sterling were weaker.

And the PHP/USD has fallen for 4 weeks.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Australian Coking Coal 1.9%, Richards Bay Coal 7.1%, Aluminium 1.9%, Rotterdam Coal 5.2%, Bloomberg Commodity Index 1.9%, Brent Crude 13.9%, WTI Crude 9.7%, EHR 1.5%, Heating Oil 6.9%, HRC 1.7%, JKM LNG 3.7%, Newcastle Coal 7.8%, Natural Gas 3%, Orange Juice 7.7%, Gasoline 5.4%, Sugar 2.9%, S&P GSCI 4.3%, TTF 7.4%, Urea U.S. Gulf 3.5%, Gasoil 9%, Rice 2.1%, Soybeans 1.7%, Gasoil crack 8.1%, Heating Oil crack 5.5%, KBW Banks 1.3%, EGX 2.1%, IBB 1.4%, Bovespa 5.4%, IDX 2.5%, Dublin 2.2%, NBI 1.7%, PSE 2.3%, SOX 2.3%, STI 1.8%< TA35 2.2% and the ASX Financials rose 2%.

The group of largest decliners for the week included; 

Cocoa (6.9%), Cotton (5.5%), Arabica Coffee (5.5%), Lithium Carbonate (4.9%), Lithium Hydroxide (6.4%), Palladium (2.8%), Platinum (1.5%), Robusta Coffee (2.8%), Sugar #16 (2.6%), Oats (1.6%), Corn (6.4%), Gasoline crack (4%), BUX (1.9%), CAC (1.5%0, DAX (2%), DJ Transports (1.7%), FCATC (2.3%), FTSE Saudi (2%), KOSPI (1.5%), FTSE 250 (1.4%), Nikkei 225 (2.1%), Stockholm (1.4%), Eurostoxx 50 (1.4%), BIST (4.3%) and ASX Materials slumped 4.6%.

September 6, 2026

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au

The Salesforce.com see-saw

Salesforce.com’s stock price has acted the correct way, but that’s enough for now.

From its current $264 price, I see it visiting $165 again.

September 4, 2026

Indonesia’s IDX has been a recent star

Astute readers of my weekly Macro Extremes, may have tuned in to the June 7, 2026 edition, which listed the oversold extreme seen in Indonesia’s IDX Composite Index.

Macro Extremes (week ending June 5, 2026)

3 months later, it has risen at least 18%.

September 3, 2026

Any trade today in UK Gilts is futile

I think making a bet that British 30 year bond yields climb higher from their current 5.88% is one carrying poor odds and probability.

In the near-term, they may rise to 6.08% or decline to 5.3%. Either way, it’s a marginal bet.

The big call was to Short UK Gilts anywhere between 0.7% to 1.3%, about 6 years ago.

Today, I think they broadly consolidate and digest, but the cost of money will move higher over the medium term.

September 2, 2026

rob@karriasset.com.au