Currencies are telling me….

February 12, 2024 Leave a comment

The currency markets are currently telling me that the mood is “risk-off” which opposes (and somewhat belligerent) the mood of ‘glamour’ equity indices barrelling higher.

The Aussie Dollar is aimless with a bias towards lower prices.

Specifically against the USD, I see it visiting the 0.6350 region and ultimately holding 0.6150 (+/- 30 pips).

There is similar pattern recognition in the #AUD/JPY and the AUD/CHF.

February 12, 2024

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

#riskmanagement

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Now, AUD/USD is full

December 29, 2023 Leave a comment

In late August 2023, I wrote that the AUD/USD should hold the 0.63/0.64 mark…..and that I didn’t believe the pundits calls back then that it would trade to 60 cents.

It’s lowest weekly closing price was 0.6295.

Queuing off the AUD/USD

4 months later, the AUDUSD is now trading at 0.6870 which is 2.5 standard deviations above its weekly mean.

If the strength of the current uptrend wanes, the AUD/USD will lose steam between its current price and 0.70000.

It’s good enough. So far, this has been a 9% move within those 4 months.

Also likely to hamper its progress {sic} will include those same ‘wealth management’ pundits prediction of a 75 cents price.

This advance in the AUD (versus the USD) had a corollary to the ‘risk-on’ feeling that markets exhibited.

It’s pending exhaustion will have the opposite.

December 29, 2023

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

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Selling Euro / Buying Yen

June 30, 2023 Leave a comment

I think that the ‘fat part’ of the Euro advance against the Yen has been seen.

Today’s price is 157.26

Not to be relied on in isolation but this study below shows the percentages which EUR/JPY is trading above its 200 week moving average……and when combined some other studies, it increases the probability of my belief.

Beyond your standard FX trade (currency conversion) this also means European customers and buyers of Japanese parts, components and product should order and pay for their Japanese products ‘tout suite’.

They should be at their cheapest prices seen in the past 3 years, even when considering Japan’s inflation rate of a ‘mere’ 3.2%.

June 30, 2023

by Rob Zdravevski

Karri Asset Advisors

rob@karriaseet.com.au

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AUD/USD – it’s time

October 11, 2022 Leave a comment

The next and perhaps last point for the AUD/USD in this last downward leg sits around 0.6210 (+/- 20 basis points)

The AUD/USD is entering a 5th moment of being Oversold in the past 8 years.

This can be paraphrased by saying we are in the vicinity and ‘it’s good enough’.

So, I’m selling some USD and buying AUD.

This currency low and pending reversal or reversion will also has have affect on assets such as Copper, Oil and Gold.

October 11, 2022

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

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The AUD/USD is nearing a low

September 22, 2022 Leave a comment

On September 7, 2022, I dispensed comments to clients about my views on the AUD/USD.

I cited how perverse it was that the Aussie was strong versus the EUR, GBP and JPY….

while it continued to weaken against the USD.

This so called perverse scenario is because you don’t generally see AUD strength against other G-8 currencies whilst it inversely exhibits weakness against the USD.

Then, I thought it was appropriate for operational businesses (whether requiring to do so physically or for hedging purposes) is to…….

1) take your strong AUD and buy either GBP, EUR or JPY (the Aussie has since weakened 1.4% against these crosses)

but then…..

2) prepare to sell your strong USD and buy AUD 

Back then (Sept 7th), the AUDUSD was trading at 0.6717.

My advice said that it needs to trade below 0.6680 if it is to make a move to 0.6464.

But I noted that the AUD/USD is within the process of being in the lower quintile (the last legs) of the larger downtrend which commenced at 0.7600 in April 2022.

Now, I think it’s time to prepare for the 2nd piece of that previous commentary.

Overnight, the AUD/USD broke below the 0.6680 level mentioned.

At the time of writing it is now trading at 0.6590.

It has weakened 2.6% since September 7th, 2022.

The velocity of the downtrend is increasing, albeit slightly.

However we are nearing interim support of 0.6560

I still see the 0.6460 region as major support.

My work and probability suggests locking in hedges or actually Selling USD / Buying AUD around this 0.6580 – 0.6460 mark is prudent.

A visit to 0.6340 would be an outlier 4 standard deviation, only seen twice in the past 20 years.

  • not personal advice, see disclaimer

September 22, 2022

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

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Watching FX tells you a lot of things

December 14, 2020 Leave a comment

The action is in the currencies;
overbought readings in the ‘risk’ currencies,
which marries up with the Nasdaq and Copper,
and no one likes the USD.

December 14, 2020
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au

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Bitcoin is silently screaming

November 5, 2020 Leave a comment

A month ago, I wrote the post linked below, the currencies mentioned have held their supports as did Bitcoin.

Since then, Bitcoin has advanced 40% in the past 30 days.

https://robzdravevski.com/2020/10/05/short-term-aud-fx-range/

November 5, 2020
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au

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Short term AUD FX range

October 5, 2020 Leave a comment

During this week of October 5th-9th, if the AUDUSD stays under 0.7280 but breaks below 0.7030, then I’ll look for lower prices.

It’s 0.7168 as I write this.

Similarly, if the AUDJPY stays below 76.40 and breaks under 73.95 (it’s 75.68 at the moment), it will add weight for lower equity indices.

Incidentally, Bitcoin’s support level is ~ $10,320

Failure of these short-term support level should have mimicking effect on other asset classes.

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AUD – now Overbought at a Weekly Extreme

September 1, 2020 Leave a comment

I feel markets are at another acute point.
It’s not about doom but rather to position for the opportunity.

In this note, I’ll start with the AUD and USD.

Since Buying AUD in the depths of March 2020, I’ve been advising clients to sell AUD against the USD in a tiered fashion at 0.66, 0.69 and 0.71.

With a weaker USD, we have also seen a commensurate advance in commodity prices. Note the link ?

I’ve been banging on about overbought readings recently each time they were registered on the “daily” charts, BUT now, significantly, we are seeing “Weekly” extremes.

Please take a look at the AUD/USD chart below and my annotations within it.

It’s only the 10th time in past 18 years that we have seen this and it’s the first time in 9 years.

I’m not calling a crash and of course and 0.7750 is entirely possible but I want to identify that such extremes are not common. Buying AUD at this end of the pendulums arc warrants thought to the probability of mean reversion.

September 1, 2020
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.auAUD Weekly

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