Don’t be the lone ranger

Here are my current squiggles about Silver, as I watch whether it breaks higher.

The call is for higher prices but I need it to close above $25.07 to solidify the bullish trend from a daily to a weekly basis.

New, long money should watch this resistance and it’s prudent to wait for the break.

October 25, 2021

by Rob Zdravevski

Not feeling “golden” this week

This is not a celebratory post but intended to highlight the practice of observing prices and moods when they reach an extreme.

There are times when experience tells you that things are stretched, feeling “dangerous” or perhaps resembling mania, frenzy or euphoria.
(see my recent posts warning of such)

I still wonder what makes people chase assets at “stretched” prices.

Are they trying to “eek” out the last 10% of a move?

Are they oblivious that the “fat part” of the trade has been seen and had?

Do they understand what their risk/reward ratio looks like?

Today’s example is the price action in Gold.

Yesterday (overnight) Gold fells $130 per ounce of ~ 6.3%. It’s trading at $1,915 as I write this. Incidentally, Silver plummeted 17%.

It’s difficult (impossible, even) to pinpoint the timing of such a move, but it should be easier to understand when not to chase something at perpetually higher prices without having a sound reasoning for doing so.

Today, prices of Aussie gold companies are 7% lower and the poor sod who bought Saracen Minerals (SAR:ASX) 2 weeks ago at $6.75 is wearing 20% worth of pain.

Furthermore, these stocks are now trading at the same prices seen 6 weeks ago.

Wasn’t gold hitting new highs only 4 days ago?

August 12, 2020
by Rob Zdravevski

Timber !

The 3 best commodities trades since the March 2020 lows have been Long Oil, Silver and Lumber.


Yes…..Lumber. (see chart below)

All have doubled over the past 4 months.

Where to next….
Oil’s bullish trend is still intact,

Silver is overbought, at extremes and warrants caution if you are long (susceptible to a pullback to $18),

and Lumber is a Sell. With its 3 standard deviation above its ‘weekly’ mean and an outside reversal week, it’s time to cash in the (wood) chips.

by Rob Zdravevski
July 27, 2020

Silver – Oversold Moments In Past 3 Years

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