Bitcoin and S&P 500 may swoon together

As a proxy and correlation for ‘risk-on’ and risk-off’ sentiment, Bitcoin is once again poised at a support level (~$38,000) worth watching.

And more so, as it remains in a medium term downtrend.

Failing to hold this near term support, Bitcoin should visit the $29,700 (+/- $250) area.

Such a 24% decline should coincide with my previous writings about a 20% decline in the S&P 500.

March 11, 2022
by Rob Zdravevski

Bitcoin on support but converging to WMA

Bitcoin needs to hold $42,333 for now.
It’ll be telling for other risk assets,
Bitcoin could see the $26,000 – $23,000 level
More on other support levels #bitcoin later,
but isn’t trading at 500% above its 200 weekly moving average anymore, instead it’s now 126%.

Below is a weekly chart, the 200 week moving average has risen from $15,000 to $20,000 over the past 4 months, which is in keeping with my price and moving average convergence post dated, October 18, 2021.

January 6, 2021

by Rob Zdravevski

The tax man seizes cryptocurrencies

But I thought crypto currencies were decentralised, anonymously owned/transacted and many steps removed from ‘the man’?

A crypto harbinger ?

$700 million for 20 years.

That’s a bit more than the $100 million / 30 years deal Enron had for Astro Field naming rights.

I wish we could read the Force Majeure clause

Is this a harbinger for the crypto industry?

History doesn’t suggest immediately and not within the next 2 years.

But it’s certainly a shift from having a naming rights sponsor who sells paperclips to one involved in the burgeoning industry of ‘crypto’.

November 17, 2021

by Rob Zdravevski

Ethereum trading call

Last Friday afternoon (June 25, 2021), I wrote this note to some clients trading Ethereum.

“ETH downtrend (on a daily basis) is intact and remains strong,
this is seconded with ETH entering a new weekly downtrend,

In the very short term (days), ETH is entering an acute technical squeeze,
it is trading at $1,952 as I write this,
a break above $2,150 increases probability of a visit to $2,620
a break below $1,860 suggest $1,730,
below that my ’scorched earth’ Buy is between $1,280 – $1,350 during the July 3rd-12th timeframe”

What happened next ?

……within 1 day, somewhere between Friday 4.30pm AEST and early Saturday evening, Ethereum dived 12% to a low of $1,715.

My note suggested a decline to $1,730. 
ETH found support at that level,
it has since bounced 22% from $1,730.
(ETH is currently $2,107 as I write this)

And so I direct you to the chart below,
it’s a ‘close-up’ of current price action,
so it’s relevant to reference the initial June 25 comments.

“a break above $2,150 increases probability of a visit to $2,620”

so…Long trade remains and the stop loss is at $2,020 (just below the new upward sloping trend line) thus protecting $1,730 long entry.

* not personal advice, just some storytelling, don’t sue me, seek advice or do your work*

June 30, 2021
by Rob Zdravevski


Calling the Bitcoin retracement

Yesterday, I provided crypto trading clients with some technical advice about how I see the price action in Bitcoin.

Referencing the dates in each chart (image) below, you will see my comments about ‘heightening buying interest at $29,300’ in the larger June 22 edition.

The close-up chart shows that overnight, Bitcoin traded to a low of US$29,247 and then bounced 11%, back to US$32,600.

For now, I’m happy with that call.

June 23, 2021
by Rob Zdravevski

Questioning if Bitcoin is Worthless

While I now hear of predications that Bitcoin will reach $100,000, I don’t hear many asking what if Bitcoin is worthless?


Ripple has fallen 40%
Ethereum has declined 7%
Litecoin has sunk 11%
EOS has retreated 20%

On 18 of the past 60 days, Bitcoin has risen or fallen 4% or more from its previous day’s close.

Currencies (or the “heir apparent’s”) shouldn’t be moving that much and if they are, it’s not a healthy sign.

After all, Bitcoin is already 11 years old.

(note: isn’t it funny that cryptocurrencies are being quoted and traded against that ‘old enemy’ being the fiat currency)

If crypto currencies aren’t ‘influenced’ by a government then how will we make economic adjustments for inflation?

If we start using Bitcoin to pay for food, fuel and rent, will inflation (or deflation) no longer exist?

If there isn’t any inflation, revenues, expenses, deficits, surpluses and perhaps taxes connected, how do I value a cryptocurrency?

Is it part of a greater fool theory?
Are we relying in the pure speculative value of the currency?

Is it there ‘scarcity’ of units issued which allows cryptocurrencies to rise or retain their value?

For it can’t scarcity of actual currencies, as there are 180 fiat currencies in the world (the top 10 are 90% of FX trade), while there are estimates of between 4,000 and 7,000 cryptocurrencies existing and 1,000 have been reported to have failed.

December 24, 2020
by Rob Zdravevski

%d bloggers like this: