Macro Extremes (week ending May 29, 2026)

May 31, 2026 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

U.S. 10 year minus German 10-year bond yield spread *

U.S. 10 year divided by Australian 10-year bond yield spread *

Rice *

Singapore’s Strait Times Index

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Japanese 10-year government bond yields *

Australian Coking Coal *

Aluminium

Baltic Dry Index

Rubber

AUD/EUR *

AUD/IDR *

AUD/INR *

AUD/JPY *

AUD/SGD

AUD/THB *

CNH/USD *

Austria’s ATX

Russell 2000

TAIEX *

Nasdaq Composite *

KOSPI *

Nasdaq 100 *

Nikkei 225 *

Finland’s OMX-H *

Thailand’s SET Index

Philadelphia’s SOX Index *

Poland’s WIG Index

And the S&P 500 *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

USD/IDR

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Australian 10-year minus U.S. 10-year bond yield spread *

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 5-year govn’t bond yield spread *

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

JPY/AUD *

Indonesia’s IDX Composite Index *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

IDR/USD

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields fell, again.

As did U.S. corporate bond yields.

Nearly all the yields and yield spreads from last week’s list have departed.

The Swiss 10-year yield fell hardest.

U.S. 2- and 3-year yields along with U.S. 5-year real interest rates broke a 5 week winning streak.

A climbing U.S. minus German 10-year yield spread saw an end after 6 weeks.

Inversely, the U.S. 30 year minus U.S. 10-year yield spread rose and broke a 5 week losing streak.

And the Copper/Gold Ratio fell and snapped 7 straight weeks of gains.

Equities were mostly higher, again.

Many index have risen 4%-6% over the past fortnight.

The Russell 2000 returns to the list.

Poland’s WIG Index has risen for 4 weeks.

Thailand’s SET is in 5-week winning streak.

The S&P 500 has climbed for 9 consecutive weeks.

While Brazil’s BOVESPA is in a 7 week losing streak.

Commodities were mixed and mostly weaker.

Shipping rates, Cocoa, Natural Gas and Tin were the notable gainers.

Crude Oil, Distillates, JKM LNG, Orange Juice, Urea, Sugar and Wheat were amongst the decliners.

Richards Bay Coal and Rice fell and snapped 4 weeks of advance.

Iron Ore and Middel East Urea have declined for the past 4 weeks.

U.S. Gulf Urea prices are in a 6-week losing streak.

Brent Crude has fallen 14% in 2 weeks.

Currencies were quiet.

The Aussie rose.

The Loonie was mixed.

CHF/JPY is in a 4-week winning streak.

EUR/CHF is in a 5-week losing streak.

Yen was weaker.

USD eased.

And the Kiwi soared.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Baltic Dry Index 7.8%, Cocoa 3.3%, Natural Gas 8.8%, Tim 2.2%, All World Developed ex USA 2%, ATX 2.8%, BUX 3.8%, Chian A50 3%, DJ Transports 3.1%, IBB 2%, IBEX 2.1%, Russell 2000 1.9%, TAIEX 5.8%, Nasdaq Composite 2.4%, KSE 3.7%, KOSPI 8%, S&P MidCap 400 1.5%, NBI 1.7%, Nasdaq 100 2.9%, Nikkei 225 4.7%, SOX 5.1%, IGPA 2%, S&P 500 1.4%, Nasdaq Transports 3.5%, WIG 1.4%, XBI 3.8%, ASX Materials 3.3%, ASX Industrials 2% and ASX Small Caps rose 2.7%.

The group of largest decliners for the week included; 

Richards Bay Coal (1.6%), Bloomberg Commodity Index (2.6), Brent Crude Oil (9.1%), WTI Crude Oil (9.6%), Cotton (1.6%), Heating Oil (7.5%), JKM LNG (2.7%), Arabica Coffee (2.5%), JKM LNG in Yen (2.2%), Orange Juice (7.1%), Gasoline (9.5%), Sugar (4.4%), S&P GSCI (5.1%), CRB Index (3%), Dutch TTF Gas (5.8%), Urea U.S. Gulf (2.8%), Gasoil (11.1%), Middle East Urea (14.2%), Corn (3.6%), Oats (2%), Rice (2.9%), Wheat (5.5%), HSCEI (1.5%), Hang Seng (1.7%), Bovespa (1.4%), IDX (2%), KLSE (1.7%), OBX (2.1%) and the Philippines PSE fell 3.2%.

May 31, 2026

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au

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Cheaper prices ahead in France

December 5, 2024 Leave a comment

If pondering allocating capital to the broader French equity market, I’d wait for a much low entry point in #France‘s CAC-40 Index.

So far, none of this week’s political news is close to resembling the sound of the cannons.

December 5, 2024

rob@karriasset.com.au

Screenshot

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World Series fun fact

October 26, 2024 Leave a comment

My World Series almanac fun fact:

It has been 36 years since the Los Angeles #Dodgers had a 2nd baseman playing in the World Series whose last name contained only 3 letters and they both ended in ‘X’. Incidentally, both of their first names have 5 letters.

Over the next month (October 20 – November 16, 1988), the S&P 500 fell 7%, to a low of 263 points.

2 weeks after the 1988 World Series concluded, a Republican candidate was elected President.

The S&P 500 never breached that low again,

And the Dodgers won.

Put that in your pipe and smoke it !

#baseball

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How To Go From Sinophile to Sinophobia – Ask Australia

November 14, 2013 Leave a comment

A country’s Foreign Affairs  isn’t only about setting policy but you need to understand economics in order to achieve your diplomatic objective.

Having a few politicians who are certified Sinophiles isn’t an automatic pass either.

Unfortunately, politicians and their advisors often aren’t financially literate let alone considered to be business people and because of this, they fail to understand how to deal with other countries over the length of many economic cycles.

In Australia’s case, it was the only large developed economy to survive the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. The fact that it has hasn’t posted a year with negative economic growth for 22 years in another anomaly.

Over the past 10 years, Australia’s economy benefitted from China’s appetite for its commodity resources (see China’s stimulus) and we loved them for it but after a while Aussies weren’t happy with what panned out, as the social and financial divide was then blamed on a “Two-Speed” economy.

When a large trading partner saves your economy, you say “Thank You”.

You don’t;

  1. antagonise them by placing U.S. Marines in Darwin and lie about the real reason they are there.
  2. call them dirty polluters (even though you have been one for a 100 years before them)
  3. revile the fact that their students come to Australia to study and “take away places from Aussie students”.
  4. ban their large telecomm networking company from participating in the construction of your own National Broadband Network
  5. obstruct and oppose their companies from buying assets (farms) from a willing seller in a free market enterprise system &
  6. charge their citizens more tax if they choose to buy property in Australia.

Oh Australia, you just don’t get it.

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