A look at the AUD/USD

AUD/USD is registering some extremes which suggests that its current decline should end near the 0.6710 mark.

November 15, 2026

rob@karriasset.com.au

A look at Bitcoin

My read of the Bitcoin tape suggests the current decline ends somewhere near $54,000 – $58,000 range.

A resumption of risk-on across equities et al. would correspond to seeing Bitcoin bounce to the US$71,000 – US$73,000 area.

I expect the larger decline in Bitcoin to commence many months from now.

November 15, 2026

rob@karriaset.com.au

Macro Extremes #286 (week ending November 13, 2026)

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets, on a weekly timeframe, either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below their rolling mean.

NB: Pricing of commodity futures contracts considers only the immediate front-month contract.

* denotes multiple-week inclusion.

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Extremes Above the Mean (At least 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

U.S. 10-year yield minus Australian 10-year yield spread

U.S. 10-year yield divided by Australian 10-year yield

CAD/AUD *

USD/AUD

USD/BRL *

Dubai’s DFM Index

Ireland’s ISEQ Index *

Mexico’s IPC Index *

Denmark’s OMXC Index *

Switzerland’s SMI Index *

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Overbought (RSI > 70)

U.S. high yield bond index *

French 10-year bond yield

U.S. 3-month bill yield

JKM LNG in Yen *

Rice *

GBP/EUR

USD/DKK

Poland’s WIG Index

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The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and >2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

None

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Extremes Below the Mean (At least 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

Australian 10-year yield minus U.S. 10-year yield spread

Copper

Tin *

AUD/CAD *

AUD/INR *

AUD/SGD *

AUD/USD

BRL/USD *

And Israel’s TA-35 Index

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Oversold (RSI < 30)

Lean Hogs

Lithium Hydroxide *

Palladium

EUR/GBP *

EUR/USD

CSI 300 Index *

China A50 Index *

China FCATC Index

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The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and >2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

None

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Notes & Ideas

Government Bond Yields Rose.

Understandably so, for all the streaks listed last week have been broken.

The anomaly was that U.S. BB yields fell.

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Equities Were Surprisingly Higher.

Except for some Asian indices, with the KLSE nearing mean reversion.

Copenhagen and the SMI have risen for 6 weeks.

ASX Industrials are in a 7-week winning streak.

France’s CAC40 has risen 7.5% in the past 3 weeks.

And China’s A50 squeezed out a weekly gain and snapped its 13-week losing streak.

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Commodity Prices Had a Lower Bias

Coal, Gases, Cattle, Oats and Soybeans were the notable gainers.

Aluminium, Crude, Copper, Lithium, Platinum Silver and Gold were amongst the largest decliners.

The Bloomberg Commodity Index has fallen for 4 weeks.

Copper has slumped for 5 weeks.

Cocoa has declined for 6 weeks.

Corn, Oats, Soybeans & Wheat rose and broker their respective losing streaks.

While the Baltic Dry Index has closed higher for the past 4 weeks.

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Currencies Were Active

The British Pound and U.S. Dollar firmed.

The Aussie and Swissie were mostly weaker.

The Yen rose against all except the USD.

The Loonie was mixed.

EUR/GBP has fallen for 7 weeks.

EUR/CHF rose and snapped 8 weeks of losses.

The USD is overbought against the DKK for the first time in 2 years.

And The USD is nearing mean reversion against the CHF.

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The Week’s Larger Advancers

The larger advancers over the past week comprised:

Rotterdam Coal 1.8%, Baltic Dry Index 7.7%, Palm Oil 4.8%, Hogs 3.6%, Lumber 2.3%, Cattle 3.1%, Newcastle Coal 4%, Natural Gas 7.7%, Tin 1.9%, Dutch TTF Gas 6.3%, Oats 8.2%, Soybeans 3.2%, All World Developed ex USA 2.2%, AEX 1.8%, ATX 3.4%, KBW Banks 2.9%, BUX 1.9%, CAC 2.7%, IDX 5.8% DAX 3.6%, DFM 2.9%, DJ Industrials 2.1%, DJ Transports 4.1%, EGX 1.7%, Tadawul 2%, MIB 3.5%, IBEX 3.4%, Bovespa 2.4%, S&P Small Cap 600 2.2%, ISEQ 1.9%, Russell 2000 1.4%, TAIEX 10%, Nasdaq Composite 2.3%, KSE 2.3%, KOSPI 5.6%, S&P MidCap 400 2.2%, Nasdaq 100 3.5%, Nikkei 6.5%, OBX 2.6%, Helsinki 1.8%, Stockholm 2.7%, PSI 2.4%, SET 2.7%, SMI 2.1%, SOX 9.4%, S&P 500 2.5%, Eurostoxx 50 3.5%, TA35 2.5%, Nasdaq Transports 3.7%, FTSE 100 2.1%, WIG 3.7% and ASX Industrials rose 2%.

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The Week’s Larger Decliners

The group of largest decliners for the week included:

Aluminium (2.3%), Brent Crude (2.5%), WTI Crude (2.5%), Copper (2.4%), Heating Oil (1.6%), JKM LNG (3.3%), Lithium Hydroxide (5.3%), Nickel (2.5%), Orange Juice (2%), Platinum (3%), Gasoline (5.5%), Robusta Coffee (2.3%), Silver (6.1%), S&P GSCI (1.7%), Uranium (1.7%), Gold (4.5%), Gasoline crack spread (12.8%), Japanese Naphtha (4.2%), FCATC (3.9%), HSCEI (4.1%), Hang Seng (3.5%), KLSE (1.9%) and the Filipino PSE Index fell 2.9%.

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November 15, 2026
By Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au

If you don’t know, then you don’t know !

This is a very familiar scenario amongst Australian resources companies.

And the stockbrokers will still convince their clients to pour money into it.

Peak Diesel

For a couple weeks in September 2026, my Macro Extremes publication highlighted overbought extremes in the prices of various fuel products.

Macro Extremes (week ending September 11, 2026)

Such as Gasoil. Let’s call it Diesel…..

During the middle weeks of September 2026, the forward contract of the Gasoil crack spreadwas easily spending time around $94.

My empirical checklist said that it was a) time to sell or b) don’t buy.

Even at today’s price of $78, I think that the price of this commodity will decline a further 50%.

November 11, 2026

rob@karriasset.com.au

Get some pork on your fork?

For the 6th time in 55 years, Pork prices are registering some notable extremes.

November 11, 2026

rob@karriasset.com.au

Reviewing recent call on British 30’s

Over 2 months ago, I wrote the note below predicting that the ‘fat part’ of the move in British 30 year yields (at 4.88%0 had been seen.

Within the note, I gave it a little wriggle room of trading up to 5.08% in the near term”.

Any trade today in UK Gilts is futile

Well, it traded up to 5.05%.

For now, I’ll look for the yield of the British 30’s to come back to the 4.10% area.

Following that consolidation, my call will be that yields make a new move higher.

November 11, 2026

rob@karriasset.com.au

China’s largest export will be inflation

I think that China’s Producer Price Index is in the last months of this advance.

While I can see this index register a reading of 7.6%, extrapolating them much higher than that is folly.

More importantly, I expect China’s PPI to settle and spend time at a higher level than normal.

This is one illustration of how China will be an exporter of inflation.

November 10, 2026

rob@karriasset.com.au

Checking the state of Oil

Many, had no business being long WTI Crude at $100 or above,

for now I look for the front month to trade down to $77.60 into the mid-December 2026 timeframe,

and all the effects that will provide.

November 10, 2026

Reading the junk yields tape

The junkiest of the junk are registering something seen for the 6th time in the past 30 years.

November 10, 2026