As plain as the nose on your face

October 20, 2026 Leave a comment

I’m reprising a note written 4 years ago.

An extract from it is, “As a private company Uber raised $25 billion over 33 rounds while Google raised a paltry $36 million over 4 rounds.”

Privately Held Unicorns add little value when Public

Once upon a time, companies became publicly listed much earlier in their corporate lives, allowing public market investors to participate in, and benefit from, a substantial portion of their growth and capital appreciation.

Over the past decade, however, this has changed considerably. Companies are remaining privately held for much longer, building enormous valuations under the fashionable label of “unicorns” before eventually coming to market.

The consequence is that much of the value creation is now being captured by a relatively small group of founders, insiders, venture capital firms and early-stage investors, rather than the broader investing public.

By the time these companies reach the stockmarket, much of the extraordinary capital appreciation has already occurred. In many instances, the IPO serves less as an opportunity for public investors to participate in the company’s next phase of growth and more as a liquidity event for those who got in years earlier.

Put another way, public market investors are increasingly being invited to provide the exit liquidity, rather than participate in the wealth creation.

Consider Uber, Airbnb, DoorDash, Pinterest and Coinbase, among others. Despite their enormous profiles, disruptive business models and, in some cases, extraordinary private-market valuations, their share price performances since listing have been mixed, with several delivering relatively ordinary returns compared with the wealth created before their IPOs.

Now, we are seeing a new wave of IPO’s from SpaceX, Anthropic, Stripe, Discord, Canva and OpenAI.

Feel free to also reference last month’s note titled, “Stockbrokers are not your mates”

Stockbrokers are not your mates

I predict that by the end of the decade, there will be some sad and broken looking equity portfolios.

October 20, 2026

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending October 9, 2026)

October 11, 2026 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets, on a weekly timeframe, either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below their rolling mean.

NB: Pricing of commodity futures contracts considers only the immediate front-month contract.

* denotes multiple-week inclusion.

Extremes Above the Mean (At least 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

Norwegian 10-Year Government Bond Yields *

Australian 10 year minus 5-year bond yield spread

Chilean 10 year minus 2-year bond yield spread

TBT & TBX

U.S. 10 year divided by Australian 10-year bond yield spread *

Oats

BRL/USD

CAD/EUR

USD/DKK *

USD/MXN *

Overbought (RSI > 70)

U.S. 5–7-Year Corporate Bond Yields *

U.S. High Yield Bond Option Index *
U.S. BB High Yield *

Belgian, Chilean, Spanish, French, Greek, Italian and Portuguese 10-Year Government Bond Yields *

Japanese 2-, 5- and 10-Year Bond Yields *

British 2- and 3-year bond yields
U.S. 3-Month Bill and 2, 3, 5, 7-, 10-, 20- and 30-Year Bond Yield
U.S. 5-Year Bond Yield minus 5-Year Inflation Breakeven Rate Spread *
Rotterdam Coal

Gasoline

Sugar *

Rubber

Rice *

Heating Oil crack spread

Japanese Naphtha

CNH/USD

and Poland’s WIG Index *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and >2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)


Indian 10-Year Government Bond Yields *
U.S. 10-Year minus Eurozone 10-Year Bond Yield Spread
U.S. 30-Year Mortgage Rate

Sugar # 16

Bovespa

Taiwan’s TAIEX Equity Index *

Extremes Below the Mean (At least 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

Australian 10 year minus U.S. 10-year bond yield spread *

Palladium

CAD/JPY

USD/BRL

CLP/USD

CAC 40 Index *

KLSE Index *

BIST Index

MIB Index

Russell 2000 *

Nifty Index *

Oversold (RSI < 30)

Lean Hogs
China CFR Iron Ore
EUR/USD

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and >2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

Brazilian 10-year bond yield

Notes & Ideas

Government Bond Yields Were Mixed, buy Mostly Lower

Much like last week…. some more 10-year bond yields left overbought territory, some streaks came to an end, while some other yields remain stubbornly stretched.

Brazil 10-year yields slumped from 14.27% to 12.6%.

Greek, French, Spanish, Belgian and Italian 10-year yields fell along with U.S. 5–7-year bond yields and all snapped 8 weeks of advance.

Chilean 10-year yield fell breaking a 4-week rising run.

U.S. 10-year real interest rates fell and broke 6 climbing weeks.

IEF and IEI ETF’s rose and snapped 7 weeks of decline.

And Indian 10-year yields have risen for 8 weeks.

Equities Were Mostly Weaker

Türkiye’s BIST Index has fallen for 4 weeks.

The KBW Banks Index, KRE Regional Banks, Russell 2000 and the Nasdaq Mid Cap 600 are in 5-week losing streaks.

IDX, PSE, Hang Seng and HSCEI rose and snapped 4 week losing streaks.

Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul, the South Africa 40 and the ASX Materials have fallen for the past 6 weeks.

The CSI 300, China A50 are in 9-week losing streaks.

While the SENSEX and the NIFTY rose and broke 8 weeks of decline.

Inversely, the TAIEX and Nasdaq Composite have risen for 4 weeks.

Brazil’s BOVESPA has soared 23% in the past 8 weeks.

And the Nasdaq Transports have closed lower for 9 of the past 11 weeks.

Commodity Prices Were Mostly Higher

Coal, Oil, Gases, Distillates and Sugar and Rice were the notable gainers.

Shipping Rates, Palladium, Tin, Urea and Corn were amongst the largest decliners.

Lean Hogs returned to oversold territory.

Palladium and Wheat have fallen for 6 weeks.

Arabica Coffee rose and snapped a 5-week losing streak.

Lithium Hydroxide rose and snapped a 6-week losing streak.

The Copper/Gold Ratio has risen for 4 weeks.

And Iron Ore prices are nearly oversold.

Currencies Were Busy

The Aussie rose against the USD and snapped a streak.

The CAD/USD is in a 5-week losing streak.

CLP/USD rose and snapped a 6-week losing streak.

The Euro was weaker with the EUR/USD having fallen for 5 weeks.

The British Pound was mixed, and the Yen was weaker.
The JPY/USD is in a 4-week losing streak.

NZD/USD has sunk for 7 weeks.

Inversely, the USD/CHF has climbed for 7 weeks.

USD/DKK, USD/SGD and USD/MXN are in 5-week winning streaks.

ZAR/USD rose as did THB/USD to break their respective 4 week losing streaks.

And the USD/SEK fell and snapped a 4-week losing run.

The Week’s Larger Advancers

The larger advancers over the past week comprised Australian Coking Coal +2.9%, Bloomberg Commodity Index 1.7%, Brent Crude 2.4%, Cotton 2.1%, Copper 2.2%, Heating Oil 5.3%, Cattle 2.5%, JKM LNG in Yen 5.7%, Lithium Hydroxide 2.6%, Natural Gas 6.1%, Orange Juice 10%, Sugar 1.6%, Sugar #16 5%, Dutch TTF Gas 8.9%, Gasoil 9.5%, Oats 3.1%, Rice 3.6%, Gasoil crack spread 14%, Heating Oil crack spread 7.8%, Naphtha crack spread 63.6%, HSCEI 1.5%, BOVESPA 8.8%, TAIEX 1.7%, Mexico 2.4%, WIG 2.3% and the S&P 500 rose 1.2%. 

The Week’s Larger Decliners

The group of largest decliners for the week included Baltic Dry Index (7.3%), Lean Hogs (3.3%), Lithium Carbonate (4.5%), LME Aluminium (1.9%), Palladium (1.9%), Tin (2%), Urea U.S. Gulf (2.2%), Corn (3.6%), Wheat (1.8%), Gasoline crack spread (6.7%), ATX (2.6%), CAC (1.2%), DFM (1.4%), MIB (1.5%), Dublin (2.5%), KLSE (1.4%), KRE Regional Banks (2.5%), KOSPI (5.4%), PSI (1.6%), PX (1.5%), SOX (4.3%), STI (4.1%), Eurosoxx 50 (1%), TA35 (3.7%), Nasdaq Transports (2.1%) and ASX Small Caps fell 1.3%.

October 11, 2026
By Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending September 25, 2026)

September 27, 2026 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Australian 3-year bond yield

Swiss, Czech and Norwegian 10-year government bond yields *

British 5-year bond yield

Japanese 30-year bond yield

TBT

U.S. 5-year bond yield minus U.S. 3-month bill yield

U.S. 10 year minus Australian 10-year bond yield spread

U.S. 10 year minus Eurozone 10-year bond yield spread

U.S. 10 year divided by Australian 10-year bond yield

Copper

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Japanese 2, 5 and 10-year bond yield *

Austrian and Spanish 10-year government bond yields

U.S. 30-year bond yield

Austria’s ATX equity index

Taiwan’s TAEIX equity index

And Poland’s WIG Index *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

U.S. 5–7-year corporate bond yields *

Belgian, Chilean, Danish, Finnish, French, Greek, Italian, Dutch and Portuguese 10-year government bond yields *

British 2-year bond yield

The U.S. and EU yield curves (except for the 30’s)

TBX

U.S. 3-month bill, 2, 3, 5, 7, 10 and 20-year bond yields

U.S. 5-year bond yield minus 5-year inflation breakeven rate spread *

U.S. 10-year bond yield minus 10-year inflation breakeven rate spread *

North American Hot Rolled Coiled Steel *

Gasoline *

Gasoil and its crack spread *

Rice *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Australian 10 year minus U.S. 10-year bond yield spread

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 2-year bond yield spread

Türkiye’s BIST Index *

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

TLT

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

IEF & IEI *

SHY *

U.S. 30 year minus U.S. 10-year bond yield spread *

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields were the news.

During the week, Australia’s 10 year minus 5-year bond yield spread touched a lower extreme.

Swiss and U.S. 10-year bond yields are in a 4-week winning streak, as is the U.S. 10 year minus U.S. inflation rate spread.

Japanese 5 year and the U.S. 10 year minus 10-year break even inflation rate has climbed for 5 weeks.

The rest of the U.S. yield curve and the U.S. 5 year minus U.S. inflation rate spread are in a 6-week winning streak.

U.S. 5–7-year bond yields have risen for 7 weeks.

Inversely, Brazilian 10-year yields have sunk for 7 weeks.

The German and Italian 2-year yield fell and broke 6 weeks of advance.

Belgian, Czech, Danish, Spanish, Finnish, French, Greek, Italian, Dutch Polish, Portuguese and Swedish 10-year yields have risen for 7 consecutive weeks as are German 5’s and U.S. 7’s.

The last time we saw such a 7-week bond yield winning streak was in August-September 2022.

The U.S. 30 minus 10-year yield spread and the IEI ETF have closed lower for the past 6 weeks.

While U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 5 year rose and bounced out from a negative quinella.

Equities were mixed with a weaker bias.

Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul, the South Africa 40, ASX 200ASX Materials and the ASX Industrials have fallen for the past 4 weeks.

The Dow Jones Transports and S&P Small Cap 600 have declined for 6 weeks.

The CSI 300, Nifty, Sensex and Nasdaq Transports are in 7-week losing streaks.

UAE’s DFM index has advanced for the past 5 weeks.

And Norway’s OBX fell to snap its 10-week winning streak.

Commodities prices have plenty of action.

Distillates, Gases, Copper, Oats, Silver and Gold were the notable gainers.

Coal, Cocoa, Cotton, Coffee, Lithium, Sugar and Rice were amongst the largest decliners.

Lean Hogs moved out of oversold territory.

North American steel prices rose for the 4th straight week.

JKM LNG prices have fallen for 10% for past 2 weeks.

Lithium Carbonate, Palladium & Wheat have fallen for 4 weeks.

Arabica Coffee and Lithium Hydroxide have sunk for 5 weeks.

Naphtha crack spreads have closed lower for the 8th consecutive weeks.

And Urea, Gasoline, Gasoil crack and Heating Oil crack fell and snapped their respective winning streaks.

Currencies were quiet, again.

The Aussie and Loonie were weaker, again.

The Yen was stronger.

NZD/AUD has fallen for 4 weeks.

Kiwi/Dollar is in a 5-week losing streak, as are CHF/USD and CLP/USD.

And the PHP/USD rose to snap a 6-week losing streak.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Rotterdam Coal 1.3%, Baltic Dry Index 1.7%, Cocoa 5.5%, Cotton 1.9%, Cattle 2.6%, Natural Gas 9.8%, Orange Juice 7.2%, Tin 1.4%, Oats 3.4%, Rice 6%, ATX 2.1%, IBB 2.6%, TAIEX 1.8%, Nasdaq Composite 2.1%, KOSPI 2.7%, Mexico 2.6%, NBI 1.6%, Nasdaq 100 3.3%, Nikkei 2.1%, SET 1.5%, WIG 1.4% and SOX rose 6.3%.  

The group of largest decliners for the week included; 

Brent Crude (1.5%), WTI Crude (3.8%), Palm Oil (4.6%), Heating Oil (7.9%), JKM LNG (6.2%), JKM LNG in Yen (2.6%), Palladium (3.3%), Platinum (1.6%), S&P GSCI (1.5%), Dutch TTF Gas (9.4%), Gasoil (3.2%), Silver (2.9%), Gold (2.1%), Wheat (1.5%), Heating Oil crack spread (4.2%), Gasoline (1.9%), Naphtha (6.5%), CSI 300 (1.5%), AEX (1.6%), KBW Banks (1.8%), IDX (3.1%), DJ Transports (2.5%), EGX (3.1%), FCATC (1.3%), Tadawul (1.7%0, KRE Regional Banks (1.7%), OBX (1.6%), Copenhagen (1.8%), Nasdaq Transports (1.5%), Vietnam (1.7%), BIST (2.9%) and ASX Small Caps fell 1.7%.

September 27, 2026

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending August 7, 2026)

August 9, 2026 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

JPY/AUD

JPY/CAD

JPY/EUR

JPY/USD

JPY/CHF

EUR/CHF *

Sugar

Czechia’s PX Index *

And the ASX 200 Index *

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Japanese 10-year bond yields *

U.S. 5 year minus 5-year breakeven inflation rate spread *

CNH/USD *

COP/USD *

North European Rolled Steel *

U.S. Midwest Hot Rolled Coiled Steel *

Rice

Heating Oil Crack Spread

Netherland’s AEX Index

Austria’s ATX Index

KBW Bank Index

Hungary’s BUX Index *

Dow Jones Industrials Index

Spain’s IBEX Index

S&P Smal Cap 600

S&P 600

Singapore’s Strait Times Index *

Canada’s TSX Index

And Poland’s WIG Index *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Japanese 2 and 5-year bond yield *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

CHF/JPY *

CHF/EUR

EUR/JPY *

USD/KRW *

Australian Coking Coal *

Lean Hogs *

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

Iron Ore *

USD/CNH *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

None

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields fell.

The exception was Aussie yield and Japanese 2’s and 5’s.

Every rising streak in yields were broken.

U.S. corporate yields were also lower, which supported the rise in equities.

Incidentally, U.S. government 5-year yields look “full”.

Chilean 2’s are still notably above a longer-term mean.

U.S. 10 year minus 10-year inflation breakeven rate is not overbought but stretched.

And the Copper/Gold Ratio is no longer overbought.

Equities were strong.

HSCEI and the Hang Seng, fell and snapped its 5 week winning streak.

While Singapore’s Strait Times has risen for 6 weeks.

The 3 biotech indices which I track fell and broke their 4 weeks of advance.

The FTSE 250, FTSE 100 and Norway’s OBX have risen for 4 weeks.

South Korea’s KOSPI has fallen for 7 weeks.

And Australia’s Materials Index has climbed 11% over the past 3 weeks.

Commodities prices were mixed, again.

Shipping Rates, Cocoa, Sugar and Precious Metals were the notable gainers.

Coal, Crude Oil, Hogs, Gases, Orange Juice, Urea and Lumber were amongst the largest decliners.

U.S. Hot Rolled Coile Steel has climbed for 4 weeks.

LME Aluminium is in a 5-week winning streak.

Tin has advanced for 6 weeks.

While North European Hot Coiled Steel risen for 7 weeks.

Iron Ore has fallen for 4 weeks and seen its first weekly oversold reading in 2 years.

Natural Gas have fallen for 6 weeks.

Brent Crude has slumped 14% in the past fortnight.

Lumber has declined 12% in 2 weeks.

And many streaks were broken.

The Copper/Gold Ratio fell and snapped a 4-week winning streak.

Gasoil fell and broke a 5-week run of higher prices.

Australian Coking Coal rose and brought 5 weeks of losses to an end.

Gasoil crack spreads fell and snapped a 6-week winning streak.

Lithium Carbonate and Hydroxide rose and broke their 7-week losing streak.

Currencies were active.

Especially anything involving the Japanese Yen.

The Aussie and Loonie were firmer.

The AUD/USD. CNH/USD, KRW/USD and SGD/USD are all in 6 week winning streaks.

The Euro was also mostly stronger.

And the Swissie saw weakness.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Aluminium 1.3%, Baltic Dry Index 13.1%, Cocoa 7.1%, Cotton 3.2%, Copper 1.9%, Palladium 7.6%, Platinum 6.1%, Sugar 12.2%, Silver 10.3%, Gold 7.4%, Rice 1.9%, Shanghai Composite 2.8%, CSI 300 2.3%, All World Developed ex USA 1.6%, ATX 3%, KBW Banks 1.6%, CAXC 2.4%, China A50 1.7%, IDX 2.8%, DAX 2.7%, DFM 2.6%, DJ Industrials 2.9%, DJ Transports 2.2%, EGX 2.3%, FCATC 5.5%, Tadawul 2.2%, MIB 3%, IBB 6.1%, Ibex 2%, S&P Small Cap 600 2.4%, MOEX 2.5%, Dublin 5.8%, Russell 2000 3.6%, TAIEX 2.6%, Nasdaq Composite 5.2%, KSE 3%, FTSE 250 3.7%, S&P MidCap 400 3.3%, NBI 5.1%, Nasdaq 100 5.1%, Nikkei 225 1.9%, OMX-S 2%, PX 2.9%, SA40 6.1%, SOX 9.3%, IGPA 2.2%, S&P 600 2.4%, S&P 500 3.6%, Eurostoxx 50 2.6%, Nasdaq Transports 1.7%, TSX 3.3%, VN Index 1.9%, WIG 3%, XBI 7.1%, BIST 2.4%, ASX 200 3.2%, ASX Materials 7.6%, ASX Industrials 2.8% and the ASX Small Caps soared 6.4%.

The group of largest decliners for the week included; 

Richards Bay Coal (1.7%), Rotterdam Coal (4.3%), Brent Crude (5%), WTI Crude (7.7%), Lean Hogs (3.1%), Heating Oil (4.7%), JKM (1.6%), Lumber (5.7%), JKM in Yen (2.9%), Newcastle Coal (4.7%), Natural Gas (3.1%), Nickel (1.6%), Orange Juice (8%), Gasoline (4.1%), S&P GSCI (2.6%), Dutch TTF Gas (6%), Urea (4.4%), Gasoil (9.3%), Gasoil crack spread (11.9%), BOVESPA (3.1%) and South Korea’s KOSPI fell 5.1%.

August 9, 2026

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , ,

Macro Extrmes (week ending July 24, 2026)

July 26, 2026 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Belgian, Danish, French, Dutch and other 10-year bond yields

Italian 2-year bond yield

German 2- & 5-year bond yields

U.S. 20-year government bond yield

TBT

British and U.S. 30-year bond yields

Lumber

Dutch TTF Gas

Wheat *

Soybeans

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Copper/Gold Ratio *

Indonesian, Korean and Japanese 10-year bond yields

5-year Japanese bond yield

U.S. 5 year minus 5-year breakeven inflation rate spread *

U.S. 10 year minus 10-year breakeven inflation rate spread *

U.S. Midwest Hot Rolled Coiled Steel *

NY Harbour Heating Oil Crack Spread

AUD/THB

COP/USD *

Chinese RMB

USD/IDR

KBW Banks Index *

Hungary’s BUX Index

Thailand’s SET Index *

And Poland’s WIG Index

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Japanese 2-year bond yield

U.S 3-month bill yield *

Singapore’s Strait Times *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

TLT

Lean Hogs

Cattle

Shanghai Composite Index *

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

CHF/AUD

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

None

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields rose, again.

Austrian, Belgian, Australian, Canadian and Spanish 10-year bond yields have risen for 4 weeks.

As have Aussie 2- and 3-year yields.

U.S. 5–7-year corporate bond yields are nearly overbought.

And Russian 10-year yields fell enough to see them leave overbought territory.

Equities were quieter.

KBW Bank Index and the DJ Transports fell and snapped a 4-week winning streak.

HSCEI, the Hang Seng, Thailand’s SET and Singapore’s Strait Times have risen for 4 weeks.

The Russell 2000, Vietnam’s VN Index and Australia’s Financials Index are in a 4-week losing streak.

South Korea’s KOSPI has fallen for 5 weeks, slumping 29% over that time.

And Russia’s MOEX rose noticeably and isn’t oversold and broke 9 consecutive weeks of losses.

Commodities prices were mixed, but mainly firmer.

Oils, Gases, Distillates, Coal, Silver, Corn and Soybeans were the notable gainers.

Hogs, Cocoa, Coffee and Oats were amongst the decliners.

Australian Coking Coal, Natural Gas, Tin, S&P GSCI Index and the CRB Index have fallen for 4 weeks.

Heating Oil, JKM LNY as priced in Yen, Gasoline, Corn & Gasoil are in 4-week winning streaks.

North European Hot Coiled Steel and Dutch TTF Gas have risen for 5 weeks.

The latter has soared 48% over that time.

Cattle prices have sunk for 5 weeks.

JKM LNG as priced in Yen has soared 30% in the past 3 weeks.

While Brent Crude has climbed 31% in the past 3 weeks.

Currencies were quiet.

The Aussie rose.

The AUD/EUR, AUD/INR, AUD/JPY and AUD/USD have risen for 4 weeks.

The Loonie was mixed.

The British Pound and Yen were weaker.

The former snapped winning streaks against the Euro and Yen.

The Yen is nearing oversold readings versus the Aussie and against the USD.

And the USD/KRW has fallen for 4 weeks.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Bloomberg Commodity Index 2.7%, Brent Crude 9.9%, WTI Crude 9.2%, Cotton 1.7%, Palm Oil 2.7%, Copper 1.5%, Heating Oil 4.3%, JKM LNG 4.8%, Lumber 3.1%, JKM LNG in Yen 11.3%, Newcastle Coal 3.3%, Nickel 2.4%, Orange Juice 2.6%, Gasoline 1.9%, S&P GSCI 4%, CRB 3.6%, Dutch TTF Gas 10.8%, Urea 3%, Gasoil 4.8%, Silver 4%, Gold in Euro 1.5%, Corn 4.4%, Soybeans 4.2%, CSI 300 2.7%, ATX 1.4%, BUX 1.8%, China A50 4%, Egypt 1.9%, HSCEI 1.7%, Hang Seng 1.6%, IBEX 1.9%, MOEX 10.6%, TAIEX 2.3%, OBX 2.6%, Stockholm 1.7%, Lisbon 1.6%, PX 2.7%, STI 1.4%, TA35 2.7% and the ASX Materials rose 1.7%.

The group of largest decliners for the week included; 

Cocoa (2.8%), Lean Hogs (12.4%), Arabica Coffee (2%), Natural Gas (1.4%), Oats (2.1%), KLSE (1.8%), KSE (2.7%), KOSPI (1.9%), Nasdaq 100 (1.6%), Nasdaq Composite (2.1%), Nifty (2.3%), Copenhagen (3.7%), PSE (1.9%), Sensex (2.7%), Vietnam (5.7%), XBI (2.5%) and the ASX Industrials fell 1.7%.

July 26, 2026

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending June 26, 2026)

June 28, 2026 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Indonesian 10-year government bond yields

U.S 3-month bill yield *

Cocoa

COP/USD *

USD/SEK

CSI 300 Index

IBB & NBI biotech ETF’s

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Copper/Gold Ratio *

USD/IDR *

Austria’s ATX Index *

Hungary’s BUX Index

Spain’s IBEX *

S&P 600 Small Cap

Russell 2000

Taiwan’s TAIEX *

South Korea’s KOSPI *

Nikkei 225 *

And the SOX *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Russian 10-year government bond yields *

Singapore’s Strait Times *

XBI biotech ETF *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

U.S. 5-year breakeven inflation rate *

Nickel *

Orange Juice *

Platinum

Silver

CAD/USD *

MYR/USD *

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

U.S. 10-year minus U.S. 5-year bond yield spread *

U.S. 10-year bond yield minus U.S. inflation rate *

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

Lean Hogs *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

U.S. 10-year minus U.S. 2-year bond yield spread *

HSCEI Index *

Hang Seng Index *

Russia MOEX Index *

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields fell.

Japan’s 10-year yield left overbought territory.

Türkiye’s 10-year bond yield and the U.S. 10-year inflation breakeven rate have declined for 5 weeks.

The U.S. 5-year inflation breakeven rates have fallen for 6 weeks.

And Russia’s 10-year bond yield has climbed for 9 weeks sending yields to 16.4%.

Equities were mostly weaker.

The better performers were U.S. biotech’s, small caps and banks along with Brazil and Switzerland’s SMI.

Dubai’s DFM Index snapped its 4-week winning streak.

CAC fell and broke its 5 weeks of advance.

The Hang Seng has fallen for 7 weeks.

Commodities had a bias for weakness, again.

Cocoa, Coffee, Rice and Sugar were the notable gainers.

Coal, Oil, Gases, Distillates, Precious Metals, Oats, Base Metals and Urea were amongst the decliners.

Brent Crude has sunk 24%% in the past 3 weeks.

Cocoa has soared 30% over the past fortnight.

Baltic Dry Index and Nickel have fallen for 4 weeks.

Lumber snapped its 4-week winning run.

Bloomberg Commodity Index, S&P GSCI, CRB Index and Lean Hogs have fallen for 6 weeks.

Last week, Singapore traded Iron Ore broke 6 weeks of consecutive decline.

This week CFR Chinese Iron Ore extended its weekly decline to 7.

Gold priced in AUD and ZAR have declined for 7 weeks.

Gold priced in CHF, CAD, EUR & GBP have fallen for 4 weeks.

Platinum and Middel Eastern Urea prices have declined for 8 weeks.

The latter completed a notable mean reversion.

And U.S. Gulf Urea prices are in a 10-week losing streak.

Currencies were quiet, again.

The Aussie was weaker.

AUD/IDR, AUD/THB, CAD/USD and USD/CHF are in 4 week losing streaks.

CAD was firmer.

While the Euro and Pound Sterling were weaker.

And COP/USD saw its 5 weeks of advance ended.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Cocoa 20%, Arabica Coffee 2%, Natural Gas 3%, Robusta Coffee 2.5%, Sugar 2.5%, Rice 8.3%, KBW Banks 1.5%, BUX 1.6%, IBB 7.9%, Bovespa 3%, S&P Small Caps 2.9%, KRE Regional Banks 4.8%, NBI 7.6%, SMI 2.9%, Nasdaq Transports 2.5%, Vietnam 2.6% and the XBI biotech ETF soared 10.4%.

The group of largest decliners for the week included; 

Richards Bay Coal (1.6%), Aluminium (2.1%), Bloomberg Commodity Index (3.1%), Brent Crude (9.8%), Baltic Dry Index (7.3%), WTI Crude (8.7%), Cotton (4.1%), Palm Oil (1.7%), Gold (3.5%), Copper (3.8%), Lumber (2.4%), Lithium Carbonate (2.4%), Lithium Hydroxide (1.7%), Tin (9.2%), Newcastle Coal (4%), Orange Juice (7.8%), Palladium (5.3%), Platinum (4.4%), Gasoline (2.4%), Silver (10.7%), S&P GSCI (4%), CRB Index (2.7%), Urea U.S. Gulf (2.4%), Gasoil (2.6%), Urea Middle East (9.1%), Silver in USD (8.8%), Gold in USD (3.1%), Oats (6.9%), Wheat (4%), Shanghai Composite (1.6%), CSI 300 (1.5%), All World Developed ex USA (1.7%), AEX (1.6%), ATX (1.9%), DFM (2.4%), EGX (2.2%), FCATC (2.5%), Saudi Tadawul (2%), MIB (3%), HSCEI (6.5%), Hang Seng (5.2%), IDX (4%), TAIEX (4.1%), Helsinki (1.5%), SA40 (2.3%), SET (1.9%), SOX (7.9%), TA35 (2.8%), WIG (2.7%), ASX Materials (4.1%), BIST (3.1%), ASX Small Caps and the S&P 500 fell 2%.  

June 28, 2026

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending June 19, 2026)

June 21, 2026 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

U.S 3-month bill yield

COP/USD

XBI biotech ETF

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Copper/Gold Ratio

Russian 10-year government bond yields *

Rubber *

AUD/CHF

USD/IDR

Austria’s ATX Index *

Italy’s MIB *

Spain’s IBEX

Taiwan’s TAIEX *

South Korea’s KOSPI *

Nasdaq 100

Nikkei 225 *

SOX *

And Poland’s WIG Index *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

U.S. 5-year bond yield minus U.S. 5-year breakeven inflation rate

Singapore’s Strait Times

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

U.S. 5-year breakeven inflation rate

Nickel

Corn *

CAD/USD

MYR/USD *

HSCEI Index

Hang Seng Index *

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

U.S. 10-year bond yield minus U.S. inflation rate *

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

Lean Hogs *

CHF/AUD

Russia MOEX Index

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

U.S. 10-year minus U.S. 2-year bond yield spread

U.S. 10-year minus U.S. 5-year bond yield spread

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields were mixed and quiet.

India’s & Türkiye’s 10-year bond yield along with the U.S. 10-year inflation breakeven rate have declined for 4 weeks.

Chile’s 2-year bond yield has sunken for 6 weeks.

The U.S. 5-year inflation breakeven rates have fallen for 5 weeks.

Various inflation breakeven spreads appear in this week’s list.

Russia’s 10-year bond yield has climbed for 8 weeks.

And Japan’s 30-year yields rose to break 4 weeks of decline.

Equities were mostly higher.

A few indices swapped spots with those that departed.

Dubai’s DFM Index is in a 4-week winning streak.

CAC has risen for 5 weeks.

Indonesia’s IDX has risen 10% in 2 weeks.

Vietnan’s VN Index rose and broke its 4-week losing streak.

The Hang Seng has fallen for 6 weeks.

The Dow Jones Transports rose and snapped a 4-week winning streak.

And Thailand’s SET fell and broke its 7-week winning streak.

Commodities had a bias for weakness, again.

Cocoa, Coffee, Cocoa and Wheat were the notable gainers.

Coal, Oil, Gases, Distillates, Silver, Platinum and Urea were amongst the decliners.

Brent Crude has sunk 14% in the past fortnight.

Lumber has risen for 4 weeks.

Bloomberg Commodity Index, S&P GSCI, CRB Index and Lean Hogs have fallen for 5 weeks.

Cotton rose and snapped a 5-week losing streak.

Iron Ore rose and broke 6 weeks of consecutive decline.

Gold priced in AUD and ZAR have declined for 6 weeks.

Platinum and Middel Eastern Urea prices have declined for 7 weeks.

And U.S. Gulf Urea prices are in a 9-week losing streak.

Currencies were quiet, again.

The Aussie rose except against the IDR and INR.

Those latter pairs have eased from their recent overbought status.

The Loonie and Swissie were weaker, again.

COP/USD has risen for 5 weeks.

A few more currency pairs left the extreme list

Yen was mixed.

And the USD was firmer, again.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Aluminium 2.8%, Cocoa 9.5%, Cotton 4.3%, Palm Oil 3%, Arabica Coffee 5.7%, Lumber 1.5%, Cattle 2.3%, Dutch TTF Gas 3.8%, Oats 2.4%, Wheat 3.2%, Shanghai Composite 1.5%, CSI 300 3.4%, All World Developed ex USA 1.5%, ATX 4.3%, IDX 2.8%, DFM 3.5%, EGX 3.6%, FCATC 7.2%, MIB 2.6%, IBB 1.8%, IBEX 3.1%, Dublin 2.2%, TAIEX 5.2%, Nasdaq Composite 2.4%, KLSE 1.7%, KSE 3.8%, KOSPI 11.4%, Nasdaq 100 2.6%, Nikkei 225 7.9%, Nifty 1.7%, Stockholm 2.1%, PSE 3.8%, Sensex 1.7%, SOX 7.3%, STI 3.3%, SX5E 1.7%, Vietnam 1.8%, XBI 5.2%, ASX Financials 1.7%, ASX Small Caps 2.6% and Türkiye’s BIST rose 5.7%.

The group of largest decliners for the week included; 

Richards Bay Coal (3.6%), Rotterdam Coal (3.7%), Bloomberg Commodity Index (1.9%), Brent Crude (7.8%), Baltic Dry Index (3.4%), Lean Hogs (2.6%), JKM LNG (14.8%), JKM in Yen (16.9%), Lithium Carbonate and Hydroxide (1.7%), Newcastle Coal (4.3%), Nickel (2.3%), Orange Juice (2.9%), Palladium (1.9%), Platinum (2.3%), S&P GSCI (3.8%), CRB Index (1.8%), Urea U.S. Gulf (3.7%), Gasoil (6.4%), Urea Middle East (8.8%), Silver (4.7%), Gold in USD (1.5%), DJ Transports (4.2%), HSCEI (4.8%), Hang Seng (3.2%), BOVESPA (1.6%), KRE (2.3%), OBX (2.2%), Helsinki (1.6%), TA35 (4.6%) and the Nasdaq Transports fell 1.7%.

June 21, 2026

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , , , , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending May 22, 2026)

May 24, 2026 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

U.S. 5 and 7-year bond yields *

Norwegian, Swiss & U.S. 10-year yields

U.S. 20-year government bond yield

German & U.S. 30-year bond yields *

TBT & TBX *

U.S. 5-year bond yield minus 5-year breakeven inflation rate

U.S. 5 year minus U.S. 3-month yield spread *

U.S. 10 year minus Australian 10-year bond yield spread

U.S. 10 year minus German 10-year bond yield spread

U.S. 10-year bond yield minus 10-year breakeven inflation rate

U.S. 10 year divided by Australian 10-year bond yield spread

Rice *

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Japanese 2 & 5-year government bond yields

Australian Coking Coal *

Richards Bay Coal *

JKM LNG *

Gasoline *

CRB Index *

Urea Middle East *

AUD/EUR *

AUD/IDR *

AUD/INR *

AUD/JPY *

AUD/THB *

CNH/USD *

TAIEX *

Nasdaq Composite

KOSPI *

Nasdaq 100 *

Nikkei 225

Norway’s OBX

Finland’s OMXH

Singapore’s Strait Times Index

Philadelphia’s SOX Index *

And the S&P 500

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Japanese 10 and 30-year government bond yields *

South Korean 10-year bond yield *

USD/IDR

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Australian 10-year minus U.S. 10-year bond yield spread

IEF & TLT

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 5-year government bond yield spread

Lean Hogs

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

JPY/AUD *

Indonesia’s IDX Composite Index

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

IDR/USD

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields fell,

Except for Chilean 10’s, Japanese 2’s & 3’s along with U.S. 2’s and 3’s.

A host of yield spreads appear in this week’s list.

Korean 10-year yields fell and snapped 5 weeks of advance.

Aussie and Canadian 10-year yields put in a bearish outside reversal week.

U.S. 2- and 3-year yields along with U.S. 5-year real interest rates have risen for 5 weeks.

U.S. minus German 10-year yield spread has climbed for 6 weeks.

While U.S. 30 year minus U.S. 10-year yield spread has fallen for 5 weeks.

And the Copper/Gold Ratio have risen for 7 straight weeks.

Equities had a positive bias.

A few more indices left overbought territory.

Thailand’s SET is in 4-week winning streak.

The S&P 500 has climbed for 8 consecutive weeks.

Vietnam fell and snapped a 7-week winning streak.

The CAC, DJ Transports, IGPA and FTSE 100 rose and snapped 4 weeks of decline.

The ASX Financials broke a run of 5 weeks of a lower close.

The ASX small caps have fallen for 5 weeks.

While Brazil’s BOVESPA has declined 11% over the past 6 weeks.

Commodities were mixed and a little quieter, relatively.

Aluminium, Coal, Gases, Coffee and Tin were the notable gainers.

Crude Oil, Distillates, Cocoa, Cotton, Cattle and Palladium were amongst the decliners.

Richards Bay Coal and Rice have risen for 4 weeks, the latter climbing 15% over that time.

Cotton has given up 9% over the past fortnight.

Palladium is 12% lower in 3 weeks.

U.S. Gulf Urea is in a 5-week losing streak.

Australian Coking Coal fell to snap its 5-week winning streak.

And the Baltic Dry Index fell and broke a 7-week losing streak.

Currencies were quiet.

The Aussie and Loonie eased.

Yen was mixed.

The Swissie and Pound Sterling firmed.

NZD/AUD rose and departed oversold territory.

EUR/CHF is in a 4-week losing streak.

Aussie/Rupee fell and broke a 6-week winning streak.

And the Aussie fell to snap 7 weeks of gains against the Euro.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Aluminium 3.4%, Rotterdam Coal 3.2%, Arabica Coffee 2%, JKM LNG in Yen 2.3%, Orange Juice 4.3%, Robusta Coffee 2.7%, Tin3.6%, Corn 1.7%, Rice 3.3%, Soybeans 1.7%, Wheat 1.7%, All World Developed ex USA 2.1%, AEX 3.4%, ATX 2.1%, KBW Banks 3.4%, CAC 2.1%, DAX 3.9%, DJ Industrials 2.2%, DJ Transports 3.2%, FCATC 1.5%, IBEX 2.1%, S&P SmallCap 600 2.6%, Dublin 4.9%, Russell 2000 2.&%, TAIEX 2.7%, KRE Regional Banks 3.6%, KOSPI 4.7%, FTSE 250 2.5%, S&P MidCap 400 1.7%, Nikkei 225 3.1%, Helsinki 3.5%, Stockholm 3.6%, PSI 1.8%< SMI 2.1%, SOX 5.3%, IGPA 1.4%, STI 1.6%, Eurostoxx 3.3%, Nasdaq Transports 2.4%, TSX 1.9%, FTSE 100 2.7%, WIG 2.9% and the ASX Financials rose 2.1%.

The group of largest decliners for the week included; 

Bloomberg Commodity Index (1.6%), Brent Crude Oil (5.2%), Baltic Dry Index (5.1%), Cocoa (5.2%), WTI Crude Oil (4.4%), Cotton (4%), Lean Hogs (2.5%), Heating Oil (3.8%), Cattle (3.4%), Lithium Carbonate (2.5%), Natural Gas (1.8%), Palladium (4.6%), Platinum (2.6%), Gasoline (5.8%), S&P GSCI (2.6%), CRB Index (1.7%), Dutch TTF Gas (3%), Gasoil (5.7%), Urea Middle East (1.8%), Uranium (1.7%), Gold in ZAR (2%), BUX (1.6%), China A50 (1.8%), IDX (8.4%), EGX (2%), HSCEI (1.6%), Hang Seng (1.4%), KLSE (1.6%), Vietnam (2.3%), BIST (3.9%) and the ASX Industrials fell 2.2%.

May 24, 2026

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Stay the course – March 2026 newsletter

March 30, 2026 Leave a comment

It may seem obvious but we are near exhaustion in the streaks seen across a host of capital markets.

The following data and observances assists in quantifying this view.

A selection of equity indices are entering their 4th and 5th week of consecutive declines.
Streaks seldom extend to the 6th week.

An extract from my recent weekend’s edition of Macro Extremes, highlights;

https://robzdravevski.com/2026/03/29/macro-extremes-week-ending-march-27-2026/

“The Shanghai Composite, All World Developed ex USA, DAX, Hang Seng, IBB biotech, Indonesia’s IDX, FTSE 250, Nasdaq Biotech (NBI), OMX Stockholm, Philippines PSE and S&P Biotech (XBI) are in 4 week losing streaks.

The Dow Jones Industrials, Nasdaq Composite, Nasdaq 100, NIFTY, SENSEX, S&P 500 and ASX Financials have fallen for 5 weeks.”

And the following indices rose last week and snapped their 4 week losing streaks; Austria’s ATX, Russell 2000, S&P Small Cap 600, KRE Regional Banks, S&P MidCap 400, Copenhagen, S&P 600 and Nasdaq Transports.

For the bond market;
4 weeks of higher yields are seen in Australian, Belgian, Canadian, German, Danish, Spanish, Finnish, French, Greek, Japanese, Dutch, Kiwi, Polish, Portuguese, Swedish and American 10 year bonds.”

Amongst commodities;
“WTI Crude, CRB Index, Gasoil and Middle Eastern Urea have closed higher for 6 weeks straight.
Gasoline, Brent Crude, Heating Oil, JKM LNG snapped their 5-week streak of higher prices.”


Lastly, in the long running AAII Investor Sentiment Survey;

the latest series of weekly results sees the bearish column exceeding a reading of 46% for the past 3 weeks.

https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey




Over the past 36 years (since 1990), we have seen such qualifying clusters of bearishness on 24 occasions.
That equates to such an event accounting for 4% of the time.

16 of the 24 occurrences were contained to a period of 3 or 4 weeks only.

These and other Clusters also occurred around major equity stress, such as;

  • 1990 recession / Gulf War
  • 2002 post-dotcom washout
  • 2008 GFC (multiple clusters)
  • 2009 final lows
  • 2020 COVID shock
  • 2022 bear market
  • 2025–2026 (current regime stress)

These are not random occurrences as they align with systemic drawdowns or late-stage capitulation capturing;

  • forced selling
  • sentiment entrenchment
  • positioning exhaustion

In summary, these periods cluster around major equity lows or accumulation zones.

As written in past newsletters, 

“I don’t see any structural problems in the global equity market”.

In the next newsletter, I’ll share some views about themes and sectors that I find interesting.

You can subscribe to my newsletter by click the button on the latest newsletter

https://mailchi.mp/karriasset/stay-on-course-1

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending March 27, 2026)

March 29, 2026 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

10-year Austria, Belgian, Chilean, German, Danish, Spanish, Finnish, French, British, Norwegian, Kiwi and U.S. government bond yields.

2, 3, 5, 7 and 20-year U.S. government bond yields.

British 30-year bond yields

U.S. 5–7-year Investment Grade and High Yield yields

U.S. 10-year bond yield minus U.S. 10 year inflation breakeven rate

Cotton *

Sugar *

Oats *

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

2-year British and Japanese government bond yields.

Aussie and British 3-year government bond yields.

Australian and Japanese 5-year bond yields.

5 & 10-year Japanese bond yields.

Richards Bay Coal *

Rotterdam Coal *

Bloomberg Commodity Index *

Brent Crude Oil *

WTI Crude Oil *

JKM LNG in USD

Newcastle Coal *

S&P GSCI Index *

CRB Index *

Urea (U.S, Gulf and Middle East) *

AUD/INR *

OBX *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Australian, Chilean, German and Italian 2-year government bond yields.

5 year Australian and German bond yields

10-year Greek, Indonesian, Italian, Korean, Polish, Portuguese & Turkish government bond yields.

Heating Oil *

JKM LNG in Yen *

Gasoline *

Gasoil *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

IEF

IEI *

SHY *

U.S. 10-year minus U.S. 2-year bond yield spread *

U.S. 10-year minus 5-year bond yield spread

U.S. 30-year minus U.S. 10-year bond yield spread *

Lumber

PHP/USD

CSI 300

CAC Index *

DAX Index *

MIB

HSCEI

Hang Seng

Nasdaq Composite *

Nasdaq 100

SMI

S&P 500

ASX Industrials *

ASX Small Caps

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

Australian 10-year minus Aussie 2-year bond yield spread

Cocoa

NZD/AUD *

HKD/USD *

KRW/USD *

IDX Composite *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

INR/USD *

NIFTY *

SENSEX *

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields rose, again.

A few more 10-year government bond yields joined the overbought list.

4 weeks of higher yields are seen in Australian, Belgian, Canadian, German, Danish, Spanish, Finnish, French, Greek, Japanese, Dutch, Kiwi, Polish, Portuguese, Swedish and American 10 year bonds.

Chilean 10-year yields have climbed for 5 weeks.

The following also have 4 week streaks of higher yields; Aussie, German, Italian and U.S. 2’s, the U.S. 3 year, German and American 5 years along with U.S & British 30 years.

U.S. 5 and 10 years minus inflation spread yields have also increased for 4 weeks.

Meanwhile, British 3 and 5 year bond yields fell and snapped their 4 week rise.

And Chilean 2-year yields have risen for 8 consecutive weeks.

Equities were mainly lower, in a tale of some streaks being extended while others were broken.

Taiwan’s TAEIX, South Korea’s KOSPI and Israel’s TA 35 Index were the last to leave overbought land.

The Shanghai Composite, All World Developed ex USA, DAX, Hang Seng, IBB, Indonesia’s IDX, FTSE 250, NBI, Stockholm, PSE and XBI are in 4 week losing streaks.

The DJ Industrials, Nasdaq Composite, Nasdaq 100, NIFTY, SENSEX, S&P 500 and ASX Financials have fallen for 5 weeks.

China’s FCTAC has declined for 6 weeks.

Austria’s ATX, Russell 2000, S&P Small Cap 600, KRE Regional Banks, S&P MidCap 400, Copenhagen, S&P 600 and Nasdaq Transports rose to snap their 4 straight weeks of decline.

China’s FCATC has fallen for 5 weeks.

Pakistan’s KSE has declined for 9 weeks.

Inversely, Norway’s OBX has risen for 9 weeks.

And India’s NIFTY is at its lowest close since early April 2025.

Commodities were mixed.

Intra-week saw large swings but the changes in week to week close  where muted and subdued.

Oils, Distillates, Aluminium, Cotton, Silver & Tin were the notable gainers.

Gases, Coffee, Cocoa, Palladium, Platinum & Oats were amongst the decliners.

Oats, Palm Oil and Dutch TTF Gas left overbought territory.

WTI Crude, CRB Index, Gasoil and Middle Eastern Urea have closed higher for 6 weeks straight.

Gasoline, Brent Crude, Heating Oil, JKM LNG snapped their 5-week streak of higher prices.

Sugar #16 is in a 7-week winning streak.

Palladium and Platinum have declined for 4 weeks, falling 27% and 23% respectively, over that time.

And U.S. Gulf Urea prices have risen for 16 consecutive weeks.

Currencies were quieter.

The Aussie fell.

All of the Aussie pairs except against the Kiwi and Rupee exited

AUD/THB fell and snapped a 5-week rising streak.

CAD was lower.

Euro rose.

The USD was mainly higher,

CLP/USD rose slightly to snap its 5-week losing streak.

And the USD/ZAR is in a 4-week winning streak.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Aluminium 2%, WTI Crude Oil 1.4%, Cotton 3.2%, Heating Oil 10.7%, Cattle 2.3%, Tin 5.9%, LME Aluminium 3.3%, Orange Juice 9.3%, Urea U.S. Gulf 1.9%, Gasoil 1.9%, Silver in AUD 4.9%, Silver in USD 2.7%, Gold in AUD 2.1%, Wheat 1.6%, DJ Transports 1.8%, BOVESPA 3%, Mexico 4%, SA40 1.8%, SMI 2%, S&P 600 1.1%, Nasdaq Transports 1.8%, TSX 2.1%, Vietnam 1.5% and ASX Materials rose 4.6%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

Cocoa (2.8%), JKM LNG (6%), Arabica Coffee (2.6%), Lumber (2.1%), Palladium (2.7%), Platinum (5.1%), Gasoline (1.3%), Robusta Coffee (1.9%), Dutch TTF Gas (8.4%), Oats (4.6%), CSI 300 (1.4%), FCATC (2.9%), Nasdaq Composite (3.2%), KOSPI (5.9%), FTSE 250 (1.8%), Nasdaq 100 (3.2%), SOX (2.8%), S&P 500 (2.1%), TA35 (5%) and BIST fell 2.7%.

March 29, 2026

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au 

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , ,

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