Low Bitcoin volatility leads to a violent move

I am studying Bitcoin volatility and have found that the its 30 day historical volatility has fallen to its lowest level in my 10 years of data.

6 out of 7 times when its fallen to similar levels Bitcoin has rallied notably.

Last night, Bitcoin rose 3% or $300. It is currently trading at $10,878.

And Bitcoin’s correlation to the S&P 500 is ‘growing’.

The weekly chart below paints a clearer picture.

October 9, 2020
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au

Short Bitcoin Call

A quick note to followers – Making a call, Short Bitcoin at current price of $9,320.

Targets are $8,300, then $8,170 and $7,200

Will add to the short at $9,430.
Stop loss will be set at $9,600.

A break in AUDJPY below 0.7160, then 0.7130 aids the short thesis, which includes plenty of cross-asset correlations.

#bitcoin #btc #crypto #cryptocurrency

June 12, 2020
by Rob Zdravevski

Subscribe to my blog: www.robzdravevski.com
Drop me an email: rob@karriasset.com.au
and seek advice or see my Disclaimer link on my blog site

Bitcoin & SPX correlation

Doesn’t Bitcoin (the blue line) seem to have a leading correlation to the S&P 500 ?

?? see my earlier post mentioning a peak in Australia’s ASX 200 ??

No alternative text description for this image

Activate link to view larger image.

Bitcoin – Not A Passing Fad

I love how crypto coins are making governments nervous.

Personally I’m not a user of it, but I can understand its allure to the nonconformists, to those who like to be considered as “early adopters” and those who just don’t want to be traced.

Bitcoin proponents are looking for ways to have their virtual currency legitimised (in terms of acceptance) but at the same time, government will want to regulate it based around protecting the consumer but the real reason will be so that they can tax it.

Ya Gotta Know How To Tax ‘Em

Government knows how to tax petrol (gasoline), cigarettes, ownership of land, income, sales of goods and capital gains realised on the sale of assets.

This is why I think Electric Vehicles (EV’s) don’t stand a chance of real success. Government support of EV’s is a mere sideshow to appease the “Green Lobby” and until government learns how to tax the electricity trickle from the powerpoint in your garage, then EV’s won’t become too popular. Interestingly,  New Jersey, Colorado, Texas, Arizona, and Virginia have all prohibited Tesla from selling cars in their states, mainly because that their direct internet selling model pisses off the incumbent dealership model ( see an older post from 2013, http://wp.me/p1d84Y-mr ) but it probably didn’t help when a couple Tesla’s were bought using Bitcoin.

Battle Is Just Beginning

U.S. tax authorities have classified Bitcoin as property, which the “crypto industry” doesn’t like.

The Aust. Taxation Office is now trying to figure out taxation guidelines surrounding Bitcoin and other crypto currencies.

An Aussie tax partner has said that under Aust. GST laws, Bitcoin wouldn’t be classified as money as it is not backed by a government. That must be annoying for the government.

Nervousness exists because Bitcoin and other crypto currencies have become a money supply which is not controlled by the state in its currently acceptable fiat format.

It cuts out the middle man!

%d bloggers like this: