A trough in Bitcoin volatility portends a S&P 500 bottom

Bitcoin’s price action, trend and sentiment suggests it tests somewhere around the US$16,000 mark. +/- $600.

A drop in Bitcoin’s 30 day volatility precedes a trough in the price of BTC/USD which precedes ‘one more decline’ in the S&P 500 before itself finds a floor.

This would put my S&P 500 target around 3,645.

A bottoming process which builds into a rally in these two markets would cause much damage to all those huddled on the other side of the boat.

p.s. The direction Bitcoin also has reasonably good correlation with the Australian Dollar and commodity prices.

September 20, 2022

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Bitcoin and S&P 500 may swoon together

As a proxy and correlation for ‘risk-on’ and risk-off’ sentiment, Bitcoin is once again poised at a support level (~$38,000) worth watching.

And more so, as it remains in a medium term downtrend.

Failing to hold this near term support, Bitcoin should visit the $29,700 (+/- $250) area.

Such a 24% decline should coincide with my previous writings about a 20% decline in the S&P 500.

March 11, 2022
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au

Bitcoin on support but converging to WMA

Bitcoin needs to hold $42,333 for now.
It’ll be telling for other risk assets,
Bitcoin could see the $26,000 – $23,000 level
More on other support levels #bitcoin later,
but isn’t trading at 500% above its 200 weekly moving average anymore, instead it’s now 126%.

Below is a weekly chart, the 200 week moving average has risen from $15,000 to $20,000 over the past 4 months, which is in keeping with my price and moving average convergence post dated, October 18, 2021.

January 6, 2021

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

The tax man seizes cryptocurrencies

But I thought crypto currencies were decentralised, anonymously owned/transacted and many steps removed from ‘the man’?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-18/irs-sees-crypto-seizures-totaling-billions-of-dollars-next-year?sref=qLOW1ygh

A crypto harbinger ?

$700 million for 20 years.

That’s a bit more than the $100 million / 30 years deal Enron had for Astro Field naming rights.

I wish we could read the Force Majeure clause

Is this a harbinger for the crypto industry?

History doesn’t suggest immediately and not within the next 2 years.

But it’s certainly a shift from having a naming rights sponsor who sells paperclips to one involved in the burgeoning industry of ‘crypto’.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-17/crypto-com-replaces-staples-as-title-sponsor-of-iconic-la-arena?sref=qLOW1ygh

November 17, 2021

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

A observation of convergence

Over the next 15-18 months, where does Bitcoin converge with its 200 week moving average?

How much does Bitcoin decline or how much does the mean ‘roll’ higher?

Probability suggests Bitcoin consolidates and digests itself lower than where it is today.

p.s. those notations serve as as a guide of the percentage Bitcoin was/is trading above its 200 week moving average.

October 18, 2021

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Calling the Bitcoin retracement

Yesterday, I provided crypto trading clients with some technical advice about how I see the price action in Bitcoin.

Referencing the dates in each chart (image) below, you will see my comments about ‘heightening buying interest at $29,300’ in the larger June 22 edition.

The close-up chart shows that overnight, Bitcoin traded to a low of US$29,247 and then bounced 11%, back to US$32,600.

For now, I’m happy with that call.

June 23, 2021
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au

Old Skool

I couldn’t help myself.

In the past 2 months….Lumber (shown in blue in the chart below) has outperformed Bitcoin (displayed in orange).

#savealumberjack

April 16, 2021

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

#bitcoin

Questioning if Bitcoin is Worthless

While I now hear of predications that Bitcoin will reach $100,000, I don’t hear many asking what if Bitcoin is worthless?

Overnight;

Ripple has fallen 40%
Ethereum has declined 7%
Litecoin has sunk 11%
EOS has retreated 20%

On 18 of the past 60 days, Bitcoin has risen or fallen 4% or more from its previous day’s close.

Currencies (or the “heir apparent’s”) shouldn’t be moving that much and if they are, it’s not a healthy sign.

After all, Bitcoin is already 11 years old.

(note: isn’t it funny that cryptocurrencies are being quoted and traded against that ‘old enemy’ being the fiat currency)

If crypto currencies aren’t ‘influenced’ by a government then how will we make economic adjustments for inflation?

If we start using Bitcoin to pay for food, fuel and rent, will inflation (or deflation) no longer exist?

If there isn’t any inflation, revenues, expenses, deficits, surpluses and perhaps taxes connected, how do I value a cryptocurrency?

Is it part of a greater fool theory?
Are we relying in the pure speculative value of the currency?

Is it there ‘scarcity’ of units issued which allows cryptocurrencies to rise or retain their value?

For it can’t scarcity of actual currencies, as there are 180 fiat currencies in the world (the top 10 are 90% of FX trade), while there are estimates of between 4,000 and 7,000 cryptocurrencies existing and 1,000 have been reported to have failed.

December 24, 2020
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au

Reading the Bitcoin signals

In this October 9th, 2020 post I highlighted the 10 year low in Bitcoin volatility (BVOL) and in 6 out of 7 previous times that we saw an extreme low in BVOL, the price of Bitcoin rallied ‘notably’.

Since then it has risen from the $10,800 mark to $19,200…….or 78% in 8 weeks.

The BVOL story has also changed. It has risen from 29 to 71.

December 2, 2020
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au

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