rob zdravevski's blog

Macro Extremes (week ending January 2, 2026)

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities. 

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Austrian 10 year bond yields

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 2 year bond yield spread

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Australian 2, 3 and 5 year bond yield

Australian 10 year minus U.S. 10 year bond yield spread *

Danish & Korean 10 year government bond yields *

European 20 and 30 year bond yields

The Japanese bond yield curve

Silver in AUD & USD *

CHF/JPY *

EUR/JPY *

GBP/JPY *

MYR/USD *

All World Developed ex USA index

Austria’s ATX Index

U.S. KBW Bank Index *

Hungary’s BUX Index *

Indonesia’s IDX Composite Index

Egypt’s EGX Index *

Spain’s IBEX *

Taiwan’s TAEIX

Malaysia’s KLSE Index

Pakistan’s KSE Index

South Korea’s KOSPI Index

Nasdaq Biotech Index *

OMX Helsinki Index *

Czechia’s PX Index *

South Africa’s SA40 equity index *

Chile’s IGPA *

Singapore’s Strait Times *

Israel’s TA35 *

Nasdaq Transports *

Canada’s TSX equity index *

FTSE 100

S&P Biotech Index

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Lithium Hydroxide

Nickel

CNH/USD *

ZAR/USD

Poland’s WIG Index

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

None

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

U.S. 10 year minus the Australian 10 year bond yield spread *

U.S. 10 year bond yield divided by Australian 10 year yield spread *

Richards Bay Coal *

Lumber *

Sugar #16 *

Rice *

JPY/AUD *

JPY/CAD

NZD/AUD *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

USD/CNH

USD/ZAR

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields generally rose.

U.S. 2 year bond yields have fallen for 4 weeks.

Danish 10 year yields have climbed for 5 weeks.

Brazilian 10 year yields fell and snapped a 4 week rise.

Japanese 2 and 5 year bond yields have risen for 7 weeks straight.

Indonesian 10 year yields have fallen for 5 weeks.

Turkish 10’s have sunken for 7 weeks.

Equities were mixed to mostly higher.

Malaysia’s KLSE fell and broke a 4 week winning streak.

Poland’s WIG has risen for 4 weeks.

The Russell 2000 and South Africa 40 have climbed for 4 weeks.

The All World Developed Index, Austria’s ATX, Spain’s IBEX, Norway’s OBX, Czechia’s PX, South Africa’s SA40, Israel’s TA-35, and the ASX Financials are in 6 week winning streaks.

KBW Bank Index, ASX Financials and DJ Transports fell and broke a 5 week winning streak.

Pakistan’s KSE has climbed for 8 consecutive weeks.

Commodities were also mixed.

Coffee, Cattle, Lithium Hydroxide, Nickel, and Orange Juice were the notable gainers. 

Palladium, Platinum, Gold, Corn, oats, Rice and Tin were the notable decliners.

None of the precious metals are overbought, this week.

Orange Juice has advanced for 4 weeks, climbing 44% over that time.

Uranium’s winning streak extends to 6 weeks.

Gasoline has slumped for 4 weeks.

Lithium Hydroxide has moved into overbought territory.

Silver in AUD broke its 7 week winning streak.

Rice has fallen for 7 straight weeks.

Currencies were quieter.

The Aussie was mostly weaker.

AUD/JPY, MYR/USD and GBP/USD fell and broke their 5 week winning streaks.

CAD was lower.

CAD/JPY and GBP/JPY fell and broke a 7 week advance.

EUR/CHF has declined for the past 4 weeks.

THB/USD fell and broke its 6 week climb.

Inversely, the USD has fallen against the South African Rand for 6 weeks.

And the USD/Chinese Yuan is oversold.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Copper/Gold Ratio 2.5%, Arabica Coffee 2%, Cattle 2.8%, Lithium Hydroxide 15.4%, Aluminium 1.9%, Nickel 6.5%, Orange Juice 4.3%, Robusta Coffee 2.5%, Dutch TTF Gas 3.9%, AEX 2.8%, ATX 2%, IDX 2.5%, FCATC 3.4%, MIB 1.7%, HSCEI 2.9%, Hang Seng 2%, IBEX 1.9%, TAEIX 2.8%, KSE 3.9%, KOSPI 4.4%, OBX 1.8%, OMX-H 2%, SOX 2.2%, TA35 2.6%, VN Index 3.2%, WIG 3.5% and BIST rose 1.8%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

Bloomberg Commodity Index (2.6%), Palm Oil (2.4%), Copper (2.5%), Lumber (3.4%), Lithium Carbonate (9.3%), Tin (5.2%), Newcastle Coal (2.8%), Natural Gas (6.7%), Palladium (16.4%), Platinum (14.2%), Sugar (3.8%), Silver in AUD (7.9%), Silver in USD (8.2%), Gold in AUD (4.2%), Gold in CAD (4%), Gold in CHF (4.1%), Gold in EUR (4%), Gold in GBP (4.2%), Gold in USD (4.4%), Gold in ZAR (5.3%), Corn (2.8%), Oats (3.3%), Rice (4.2%), Soybean (2.5%), Wheat (2.4%), IBB (1.8%), S&P SmallCap 600 (1.4%), Nasdaq Composite (1.5%), KRE (1.9%), Mexico (2.3%), NBI (1.8%), S&P 600 (1.4%) and XBI fell 2.8%.

January 4, 2026

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au 

Macro Extremes (week ending December 26, 2025)

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities. 

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Belgian and Indian 10 year bond yields

U.S. 5 year bond yield minus U.S. 5 year inflation breakeven spread *

Australian Coking Coal *

Copper

Lithium Hydroxide

Nickel

AUD/USD

CHF/USD

ZAR/USD *

Malaysia’s KLSE Index *

Vietnam’s VN Index

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Australian 2 year bond yield

Korean 10 year government bond yields

Japanese 30 year bond yields

Australian 10 year minus U.S. 10 year bond yield spread

Tin *

Aluminium (LME price) *

Gold in AUD, CAD, CHF, EUR, GBP, USD & ZAR *

AUD/JPY *

CAD/JPY *

CHF/JPY *

CNH/USD *

EUR/JPY *

GBP/JPY *

Austria’s ATX equity index *

U.S. KBW Bank Index *

Hungary’s BUX Index *

Egypt’s EGX Index *

IBB biotech ETF *

Spain’s IBEX *

Brazil’s Bovespa

Nasdaq Biotech Index *

OMX Helsinki Index *

Czechia’s PX Index *

South Africa’s SA40 equity index *

Chile’s IGPA *

Singapore’s Strait Times

Israel’s TA35 *

Nasdaq Transports *

Canada’s TSX equity index *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Danish 10 year government bond yield *

Japanese 2, 5 & 10 year government bond yields *

Palladium

Platinum

Silver in AUD & USD

AUD/IDR

CNH/USD *

MYR/USD *

THB/USD

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

AUD/THB *

BRL/USD *

USD/MXN

USD/SEK

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

U.S. 10 year minus the Australian 10 year bond yield spread *

U.S. 10 year bond yield divided by Australian 10 year yield spread

Richards Bay Coal *

Lumber *

Sugar #16 *

Rice *

JPY/AUD

NZD/AUD

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

USD/CNH

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields generally eased except for Japan’s.

The Australian and Euro yield curve fell and broke 4 weeks of advance.

Brazilian and Danish 10 year yields have climbed for 4 weeks.

Japanese 2 and 5 year bond yields have risen for 6 weeks straight.

Indonesian 10 year yields have fallen for 4 weeks.

Turkish 10’s have sunken for 6 weeks.

The U.S. 10Y minus U.S. 2Y spread eased and is no longer overbought.

While the U.S. 5 year breakeven inflation rate is nearly oversold.

We have also seen some reversals.

The U.S. 10 year minus Australian 10 year bond yield spread rose and broke a 8 weeks losing streak.

Chilean 2 year bond yields rose to break 4 weeks of decline.

And U.S 3 month bill yields rose to snap a 5 week losing streak.

Equities traded higher.

Malaysia’s KLSE was climbed higher for 4 weeks.

The All World Developed Index, Austria’s ATX, KBW Bank Index, Dow Jones Transports, Spain’s IBEX, Norway’s OBX, Czechia’s PX, South Africa’s SA40, Israel’s TA-35, and the ASX Financials are in 5 week winning streaks.

Italy’s MIB fell for the first time in 4 weeks.

U.S. Regional Bank Index fell and snapped a 5 week winning streak.

Pakistan’s KSE has climbed for 7 consecutive weeks.

Commodities were firmer.

Palm Oil, Lithium, Natural Gas, Nickel, Silver, Platinum, Palladium, Coffee and Gold were the notable gainers. 

Shipping Rates was the sole notable decliner.

Platinum has soared 42% in the past 3 weeks.

Orange Juice has climbed 40% in the past 3 weeks.

While the Baltic Dry Index has given up 35% over the same time.

Lithium Hydroxide has moved into overbought territory.

Cattle fell and broke a 4 week winning streak.

Silver as priced in AUD is in a 7 week winning streak.

The USD version has climbed for 5 weeks.

Newcastle Coal and Gasoil rose and broke 5 weeks of decline.

Heating Oil mean reverted.

JKM LNG rose and broke 4 weeks of loss.

Arabica coffee looks like changing direction of trend.

Lithium Carbonate is nearing overbought territory.

Uranium has climbed for 5 weeks.

Rice has fallen for 6 straight weeks.

And Wheat is in a 7 week slump.

Currencies were active.

The Aussie rose.

AUD/JPY, MYR/USD and GBP/USD have risen for 5 consecutive weeks.

The Loonie was mixed to firmer.

CAD/JPY an the GBP/JPY have climbed for 7 weeks.

The Euro was mostly weaker.

THB/USD has climbed for 6 weeks.

Inversely, the USD has fallen against the South African Rand for 5 weeks.

And the USD/Chinese Yuan is oversold.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Aluminium 2.4%, Bloomberg Commodity Index 3.4%, Cocoa 1.9%, Palm Oil 4.7%, Copper 6%, Arabica Coffee 2.8%, JKM LNG in Yen 2.4%, Lithium Carbonate 3.9%, Lithium Hydroxide 3.5%, Newcastle Coal 2.2%, Natural Gas 9.6%, Nickel 6.8%, Orange Juice 2.9%, Palladium 13.2%, Platinum 22.4%, Robusta Coffee 6.2%, Sugar 2.4%, Gasoil 2%, S&P GSCI 1.5%, CRB Index 1.*%, Silver in AUD 16.3%, Gold in AUD 2.9%, Gold in CAD 3.5%, Gold in CHF 3.7%, Gold in EUR 3.9%, Gold in GBP 3.5%, Gold in USD 4.5%, Gold in ZAR 3.8%, Corn 1.4%, Oats 3.4% Wheat 1.8%, Shanghai Composite 1.9%, CSI 300 2%, All World Developed 1.5%, KBW Bank Index 1.8%, China A50 1.6%, FCATC 2%, Bovespa 1.5%, TAIEX 3.1%, KOSPI 2.7%, Mexico 2.6%, Nikkei 225 2.5%, PSE 2.5%, SOX 2%, IGPA 1.7%, S&P 500 1.4%, STI 1.5%, XFJ 1.4%, XJO 1.6%, XMJ 3.4% and ASX Small Caps fell 2.2%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

Baltic Dry Index (7.2%), Israel’s TA35 (1.6%).

December 28, 2025 

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au