rob zdravevski's blog

Macro Extremes (week ending January 23, 2026)

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities. 

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Indian 10 year bond yield *

U.S. 3, 7, 10, 20 & 30 year bond yields

LNG priced in Yen

Natural Gas

S&P GSCI Index *

CRB Index

Dutch TTF Gas *

AUD/CAD *

AUD/EUR

AUD/GBP

AUD/SGD

AUD/USD

CHF/USD

COP/USD *

RMB

S&P Small Cap 600 *

S&P Mid Cap 400 *

And the S&P 600

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Korean 10 year government bond yields *

Japanese 2 and 5 year bond yields *

Aluminium (CBOT & LME)

Gold in AUD, GBP & ZAR

AUD/JPY *

CHF/JPY

CNH/USD *

EUR/JPY *

GBP/JPY

MYR/USD *

Shanghai Composite *

All World Developed (ex USA) *

Austria’s ATX Index *

Indonesia’s IDX Composite Index *

Dow Jones Transports *

iShares Biotech Index

Spain’s IBEX *

Taiwan’s TAIEX

Malaysia’s KLSE *

Pakistan’s KSE Index *

South Korea’s KOSPI Index *

Nasdaq Biotech Index *

Japan’s Nikkei 225 *

Helsinki’s OMX *

Copenhagen’s OMX

Czechia’s PX Index *

South Africa’s SA40 equity Index *

Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX)

Chile’s IGPA *

Israel’s TA35 *

Singapore’s Strait Times Index

Nasdaq Transports *

Canada’s TSX equity index *

FTSE 100 *

Poland’s WIG Index *

S&P Biotech Index *

ASX Small Caps

And the ASX Materials Index *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Japanese 10 and 30 year bond yields

Australian Coking Coal

Bloomberg Commodity Index

Lithium Carbonate *

Lithium Hydroxide *

Tin *

Nickel *

Platinum

Uranium

Silver in AUD & USD *

Gold in CAD, CHF, EUR and USD

AUD/IDR

AUD/INR

CLP/USD *

Hungary’s BUX Index *

Egypt’s EGX Index *

Brazil’s BOVESPA *

Mexico’s IPC Index

U.S. 600 Mid Caps

Vietnam’s VN Index *

And Turkiye’s BIST Index

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Copper/Gold Ratio

Corn

CHF/AUD

USD/CHF

USD/SGD

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

U.S. 3 month bill yield

Sugar #16 *

JPY/AUD *

USD/CLP *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

Cocoa

USD/MXN *

USD/SEK

USD/ZAR

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields rose.

Aussie curve near overbought.

AU10-2 spread ner overbought too.

U.S. high yield ‘yields’ are falling.

IEF mean reverted.

Japanese yield climbing streaks continue.

Chilean 2’s left oversold territory.

Chilean 10-2 spread isn’t overbought.

Korean 10 year yields have risen for 5 weeks.

U.S. 3 month bill yield is close to oversold, for first time since August 2025.

U.S. 3 year bond yield has advanced for 5 weeks, while the 3’s and 5’s mean reverted, upwards.

Equities bias was for lower prices.

We are seeing a growing list of indices registering overbought extremes.

The TA35 and BIST have climbed for 4 weeks.

TAIEX, KOSPI, FCATC and STI are in 5 week winning streaks.

The FTSE 250 and the SOX have risen for 6 weeks.

Poland’s WIG has climbed for 7 weeks.

The All World Developed-ex USA & Austria’s ATX have climbed for 9 weeks.

Pakistan’s KSE and Nasdaq Transports have soared for 11 straight weeks.

Copenhagen and PSE snapped 4 weeks of higher prices.

Helsinki and Stockholm fell and broke 5 winning weeks.

And Norway’s OBX, Czechia’s PX and Spain’s IBEX fell and broke 8 weeks of advance.

Commodities were mixed but mostly higher, again.

Gases, Oil, Fuels, Shipping Rates, Nickel, Tin, Tin and Precious Metals were the notable gainers. 

Cocoa, Lumber, Sugar and Oats were the few decliners.

Heating Oil has risen for 4 weeks.

Brent and WTI Crude are in a 5 week winning streak.

Lithium Hydroxide has advanced for 6 weeks.

The U.S. Gulf Urea price and Orange Juice have risen for 7 weeks.

Australian Coking Coal has soared for 8 weeks.

Uranium’s winning streak extends to 9 weeks.

Newcastle Coal has mean reverted.

Baltic Dry Index rose and broke 5 weeks of decline.

Cocoa has sunk for 4 weeks but its collapse following its parabolic rise is more impressive.

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel is also in a 4 week losing streak.

Palladium rose but didn’t make a new high.

Rubber fell and snapped a 6 week advance.

While Natural Gas rose 70% for the week, snapping a 6 week losing streak and easily recovering its 38% loss over that time.

Currencies were busier, but mixed.

Many Aussie (risk-on) and Yen (risk-off) pairs are back in the list.

CAD was weaker.

AUD/EUR has risen for 5 weeks.

GBP/EUR is in a 6 winning streak.

CHF/AUD has fallen for 5 weeks.

PHP/USD rose and broke its 4 week losing streak.

Inversely, the USD/INR has climbed for 5 weeks.

And, the USD has fallen against the South African Rand for 9 weeks.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Aluminium 1.6%, Bloomberg Commodity Index 5.3%, Brent Crude 2.7%, Baltic Dry Index 12.4%, WTI Crude 2.9%, Palm Oil 2.5%, Copper 2%, Heating Oil 5.3%, LNG in Yen 12.4%, Lithium Hydroxide 2.6%, LME Aluminium 3.1%, Natural Gas 70%, Nickel 6.5%, Orange Juice 4.3%, Palladium 11.3%, Platinum 18%, Gasoline 3.1%, Robusta Coffee 3.6%, Tin 18.1%, S&P GSCI 3.8%, CRB Index 3.4%, Dutch TTF Gas 8.5%, Gasoil 3.2%, Uranium 4.4%, Silver in AUD 11.2%, Silver in USD 14.7%, Gold in AUD 5.2%, Gold in CAD 6.8%, Gold in CHF 5.4%, Gold in EUR 6.4%, Gold in GBP 6.4%, Gold in USD 8.5%, Gold in ZAR 6.3%, Wheat 2.2%, BUX 2.3%, EGX 7.2%, IBB 3.2%, Bovespa 8.5%, TAIEX 1.8%, KSE 2.2%, KOSPI 3.1%, Mexico 1.6%, NBI 3.1%, SA40 1.9%, SET 3%, IGPA 3%, XBI 3.1%, ASX Materials 1.5% and BIST rose 2.6%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

LME Cocoa (19%), CBOT Cocoa (17%), Lumber (2.4%), Sugar (1.5%), Oats (1.6%), KBW Banks (2%), CAC (1.4%), China A50 (2.3%), DAX (1.6%), MIB (2.1%), NIFTY (2.5%), PSE (2%), PX (1.5%), Sensex (2.4%), SMI (2%), ASX Financials (1.9%) and the ASX Industrials fell 1.5%.

January 25, 2026

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au 

Macro Extremes (week ending January 16, 2026)

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities. 

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Chilean 10 year minus Chilean 2 year bond yield spread

Indian 10 year bond yield

S&P GSCI Index

Dutch TTF Gas

AUD/CAD *

COP/USD

CSI 300 Index *

DAX Index *

S&P Small Cap 600

FTSE 250 *

S&P Mid Cap 400 *

And Mexico’s IPC Index

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Korean 10 year government bond yields *

The Japanese bond yield curve *

Platinum *

Gold in CAUD, AD, CHF, EUR, GBP & USD

AUD/JPY *

CLP/USD *

CNH/USD *

EUR/JPY *

MYR/USD

ZAR/USD *

Austria’s ATX Index *

Indonesia’s IDX Composite Index *

Dow Jones Transports *

Egypt’s EGX Index *

Spain’s IBEX *

Brazil’s BOVESPA Index

Pakistan’s KSE Index

South Korea’s KOSPI Index *

Nasdaq Biotech Index *

Japan’s Nikkei 225

Helsinki’s OMX

Czechia’s PX Index *

South Africa’s SA40 equity index *

Switzerland’s SMI Index *

Philadelphia SOX Index *

Chile’s IGPA *

Israel’s TA35 *

Nasdaq Transports *

Canada’s TSX equity index *

FTSE 100 *

Poland’s WIG Index *

S&P Biotech Index *

ASX Small Caps

And the ASX Materials Index

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Lithium Carbonate *

Lithium Hydroxide *

Tin *

LME Aluminium *

Nickel *

Silver in AUD & USD *

Shanghai Composite

All World Developed (ex USA) *

Hungary’s BUX Index *

Russell 2000 *

Taiwan’s TAEIX *

Malaysia’s KLSE Index

Norway’s OBX Index

OMX Copenhagen Index *

OMX Stockholm Index *

Singapore’s Strait Times *

Vietnam’s VN Index *

And Turkiye’s BIST Index

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Corn

CAD/AUD *

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

Sugar #16 *

JPY/AUD *

JPY/GBP

JPY/EUR *

NZD/AUD *

USD/CLP *

USD/ZAR *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

Chilean 2 year bond yield

USD/MXN

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields generally eased.

Except for Euro, 5’s and 10’s along with Indian and Korean 10’s.

Japanese 10’s have climbed for 5 weeks.

Japanese 5’s have not declined for 12 weeks.

Korean 10 year and U.S. 3 year yields have risen for 4 weeks.

U.S. 5 and 10 year breakeven inflation rates are close to mean reverting while also entering a new upward trend.

U.S. 5 year yields have started a new upward trend.

And the U.S. 5 year bond minus 3 month bill spread is nearly overbought.

Equities had another good week.

We are now seeing many more indices registering overbought quinella’s.

The FCATC, TAIEX, OMXC, PSE, STI and KOSPI are in 4 week winning streaks. The latter has climbed 19% over that time.

The FTSE 250, OMX-H, OMX-S, SMI, SOX and Vietnam’s VN Index have risen for  5 weeks.

Poland’s WIG has climbed for 6 weeks.

The All World Developed-ex USA, Austria’s ATX, Norway’s OBX, Czechia’s PX and Spain’s IBEX have strung together 8 weeks of gains.

The Nasdaq Transports & Pakistan’s KSE have advanced for 10 consecutive weeks.

The U.S. KBW Bank and a biotech index dropped off the overbought list.

Commodities were mostly higher, again.

LNG, Lumber, Tin, Dutch Gas, Silver and Rice were the notable gainers. 

Shipping Rates, Cocoa, Copper, Palladium and Corn were the notable decliners.

Brent and WTI Crude are in a 4 week winning streak.

Rubber fell and broke a 6 week winning streak.

The U.S. Gulf Urea price has risen for 6 weeks.

Lumber is no longer oversold.

The latter broke its 7 week winning streak.

Nickel snapped a 4 week winning streak.

Orange Juice has advanced for 6 weeks, climbing 50% over that time.

Lithium, Coking Coal, Aluminium and Tin are all registering overbought quinella’s.

Lithium Hydroxide has advanced for 5 weeks.

Rubber has climbed for 6 weeks.

Uranium’s winning streak extends to 8 weeks.

While Natural Gas has fallen for 6 weeks, declining 38% over that time.

Currencies were quieter.

While the Aussie was firmer (ex ZAR) and the AUD/EUR is in a 4 week winning streak, many of the AUD pairs departed overbought territory.

Other notable changes this week is the Yen is less oversold.

The CAD rose.

The Euro was weaker.

CHF/AUD has fallen for 4 weeks.

EUR/GBP has declined for 5 weeks.

EUR/USD is entering a new downward trend.

PHP/USD is in a 4 week losing streak.

Inversely, the USD/INR has climbed for 4 weeks.

The NZD/AUD rose and snapped a 4 week losing streak.

And, the USD has fallen against the South African Rand for 8 weeks.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Australian Coking Coal 3.6%, Lean Hogs 3.5%, Heating Oil 4.7%, JKM LNG 11.1%, Lumber 6.5%, LNG in Yen 13.6%, Lithium Carbonate 5.7%, Tin 18.8%, Newcastle Coal 4.2%, Orange Juice 2.4%, Robusta Coffee 2.5%, LME Tin 5.3%, Dutch TTF Gas 30%, Urea U.S. Gulf 2.3%, Gasoil 3.6%, Uranium 2.8%, Silver in AUD & USD 12.8%, Gold in AUD 2%, Gold in CAD 1.,9%, Gold in CHF 2.2%, Gold in EUR 2.3%, Gold in GBP 2.1%, Gold in USD 1.9%, Rice 3.4%, AD02 1.6%, AEX 2.2%, BUX 5%, IDX 1.6%, EGX 3.6%, FCATC 2.5%, HSCEI 1.9%, Hang Seng 2.3%, S&P Small Cap 600 1.7%, Russell 2000 2.1%, TAIEX 3.7%, KLSE 1.6%, Mexico 1.6%, Nikkei 225 3.8%, OBX 3.2%, OMXH 2%, OMXS 2.2%, PSE 1.8%, SA40 2%, SET 1.7%, SOX 3.8%, STI 2.2%, XFJ 1.9%, XJO 2.1%, XMJ 3.9%, XNJ 1.8%, XSO 2.1% and BIST rose 3.8%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

Baltic Dry Index (7.2%), Cocoa (5%), Copper (1.2%), Natural Gas (2.1%), Palladium (2.6%), Corn (4.7%), KBW Banks (1.7%), China A50 (2.2%), IBB (1.4%) and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.7%.

January 18, 2026

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au