A trough in Bitcoin volatility portends a S&P 500 bottom

Bitcoin’s price action, trend and sentiment suggests it tests somewhere around the US$16,000 mark. +/- $600.

A drop in Bitcoin’s 30 day volatility precedes a trough in the price of BTC/USD which precedes ‘one more decline’ in the S&P 500 before itself finds a floor.

This would put my S&P 500 target around 3,645.

A bottoming process which builds into a rally in these two markets would cause much damage to all those huddled on the other side of the boat.

p.s. The direction Bitcoin also has reasonably good correlation with the Australian Dollar and commodity prices.

September 20, 2022

by Rob Zdravevski


Bitcoin and S&P 500 may swoon together

As a proxy and correlation for ‘risk-on’ and risk-off’ sentiment, Bitcoin is once again poised at a support level (~$38,000) worth watching.

And more so, as it remains in a medium term downtrend.

Failing to hold this near term support, Bitcoin should visit the $29,700 (+/- $250) area.

Such a 24% decline should coincide with my previous writings about a 20% decline in the S&P 500.

March 11, 2022
by Rob Zdravevski

Bitcoin on support but converging to WMA

Bitcoin needs to hold $42,333 for now.
It’ll be telling for other risk assets,
Bitcoin could see the $26,000 – $23,000 level
More on other support levels #bitcoin later,
but isn’t trading at 500% above its 200 weekly moving average anymore, instead it’s now 126%.

Below is a weekly chart, the 200 week moving average has risen from $15,000 to $20,000 over the past 4 months, which is in keeping with my price and moving average convergence post dated, October 18, 2021.

January 6, 2021

by Rob Zdravevski


The tax man seizes cryptocurrencies

But I thought crypto currencies were decentralised, anonymously owned/transacted and many steps removed from ‘the man’?


A crypto harbinger ?

$700 million for 20 years.

That’s a bit more than the $100 million / 30 years deal Enron had for Astro Field naming rights.

I wish we could read the Force Majeure clause

Is this a harbinger for the crypto industry?

History doesn’t suggest immediately and not within the next 2 years.

But it’s certainly a shift from having a naming rights sponsor who sells paperclips to one involved in the burgeoning industry of ‘crypto’.


November 17, 2021

by Rob Zdravevski


A observation of convergence

Over the next 15-18 months, where does Bitcoin converge with its 200 week moving average?

How much does Bitcoin decline or how much does the mean ‘roll’ higher?

Probability suggests Bitcoin consolidates and digests itself lower than where it is today.

p.s. those notations serve as as a guide of the percentage Bitcoin was/is trading above its 200 week moving average.

October 18, 2021

by Rob Zdravevski


Calling the Bitcoin retracement

Yesterday, I provided crypto trading clients with some technical advice about how I see the price action in Bitcoin.

Referencing the dates in each chart (image) below, you will see my comments about ‘heightening buying interest at $29,300’ in the larger June 22 edition.

The close-up chart shows that overnight, Bitcoin traded to a low of US$29,247 and then bounced 11%, back to US$32,600.

For now, I’m happy with that call.

June 23, 2021
by Rob Zdravevski

Old Skool

I couldn’t help myself.

In the past 2 months….Lumber (shown in blue in the chart below) has outperformed Bitcoin (displayed in orange).


April 16, 2021

by Rob Zdravevski



Not a currency, Not a store of value…

Ethereum and Bitcoin have fallen 25% and 20% in the past 3 days of trading.

Are they really a store of value?
Truly ?

As they surely can’t be considered a currency

February 24, 2021
by Rob Zdravevski

A 3-sigma event in Bitcoin

A week ago I wrote this about Bitcoin’s price action.

The arrival of the Bitcoin cavalry saw it trade to 3 standard deviations above its weekly mean and thus it’s logical to assume that the ‘fat part of the trade’ has been seen.

Such a 3-sigma event is expected approximately every 3 years.

Earlier this week, it lurched a $1,000 higher to reach $19,500 before falling 11% in the past 2 days.

As I write this, it’s now trading at $17,180.

Whether you consider Bitcoin a currency (which is different to a store of value) or a speculative digital asset, its underlying price volatility makes it a most fascinating asset to monitor, both mathematically and behaviourally.

Over the next couple months, I expect Bitcoin to trade back to the $13,500 level and notwithstanding any upheaval, likely to hold $12,000 as illustrated by the trend lines in the chart below.

Incidentally, over the past 2 days ,XRP and Ethereum (other cryptocurrencies) have fallen 24% and 15% respectively.

November 27, 2020
by Rob Zdravevski

Weekly Bitcoin price with 3 standard deviation Bollinger Bands
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