Bitcoin and S&P 500 may swoon together

As a proxy and correlation for ‘risk-on’ and risk-off’ sentiment, Bitcoin is once again poised at a support level (~$38,000) worth watching.

And more so, as it remains in a medium term downtrend.

Failing to hold this near term support, Bitcoin should visit the $29,700 (+/- $250) area.

Such a 24% decline should coincide with my previous writings about a 20% decline in the S&P 500.

March 11, 2022
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au

Bitcoin on support but converging to WMA

Bitcoin needs to hold $42,333 for now.
It’ll be telling for other risk assets,
Bitcoin could see the $26,000 – $23,000 level
More on other support levels #bitcoin later,
but isn’t trading at 500% above its 200 weekly moving average anymore, instead it’s now 126%.

Below is a weekly chart, the 200 week moving average has risen from $15,000 to $20,000 over the past 4 months, which is in keeping with my price and moving average convergence post dated, October 18, 2021.

January 6, 2021

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

The tax man seizes cryptocurrencies

But I thought crypto currencies were decentralised, anonymously owned/transacted and many steps removed from ‘the man’?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-18/irs-sees-crypto-seizures-totaling-billions-of-dollars-next-year?sref=qLOW1ygh

A crypto harbinger ?

$700 million for 20 years.

That’s a bit more than the $100 million / 30 years deal Enron had for Astro Field naming rights.

I wish we could read the Force Majeure clause

Is this a harbinger for the crypto industry?

History doesn’t suggest immediately and not within the next 2 years.

But it’s certainly a shift from having a naming rights sponsor who sells paperclips to one involved in the burgeoning industry of ‘crypto’.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-17/crypto-com-replaces-staples-as-title-sponsor-of-iconic-la-arena?sref=qLOW1ygh

November 17, 2021

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

A observation of convergence

Over the next 15-18 months, where does Bitcoin converge with its 200 week moving average?

How much does Bitcoin decline or how much does the mean ‘roll’ higher?

Probability suggests Bitcoin consolidates and digests itself lower than where it is today.

p.s. those notations serve as as a guide of the percentage Bitcoin was/is trading above its 200 week moving average.

October 18, 2021

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Calling the Bitcoin retracement

Yesterday, I provided crypto trading clients with some technical advice about how I see the price action in Bitcoin.

Referencing the dates in each chart (image) below, you will see my comments about ‘heightening buying interest at $29,300’ in the larger June 22 edition.

The close-up chart shows that overnight, Bitcoin traded to a low of US$29,247 and then bounced 11%, back to US$32,600.

For now, I’m happy with that call.

June 23, 2021
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au

Old Skool

I couldn’t help myself.

In the past 2 months….Lumber (shown in blue in the chart below) has outperformed Bitcoin (displayed in orange).

#savealumberjack

April 16, 2021

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

#bitcoin

Not a currency, Not a store of value…

Ethereum and Bitcoin have fallen 25% and 20% in the past 3 days of trading.

Are they really a store of value?
Truly ?

As they surely can’t be considered a currency

February 24, 2021
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au

A 3-sigma event in Bitcoin

A week ago I wrote this about Bitcoin’s price action.

The arrival of the Bitcoin cavalry saw it trade to 3 standard deviations above its weekly mean and thus it’s logical to assume that the ‘fat part of the trade’ has been seen.

Such a 3-sigma event is expected approximately every 3 years.

Earlier this week, it lurched a $1,000 higher to reach $19,500 before falling 11% in the past 2 days.

As I write this, it’s now trading at $17,180.

Whether you consider Bitcoin a currency (which is different to a store of value) or a speculative digital asset, its underlying price volatility makes it a most fascinating asset to monitor, both mathematically and behaviourally.

Over the next couple months, I expect Bitcoin to trade back to the $13,500 level and notwithstanding any upheaval, likely to hold $12,000 as illustrated by the trend lines in the chart below.

Incidentally, over the past 2 days ,XRP and Ethereum (other cryptocurrencies) have fallen 24% and 15% respectively.

November 27, 2020
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au

Weekly Bitcoin price with 3 standard deviation Bollinger Bands

The Bitcoin herd is arriving again

Bitcoin is trading at $18,000 and now, I’m being asked for an opinion.

On October 9th, when Bitcoin was $11,000, I wrote a note about the rare extreme in its volatility reading which augured for a notable rally.

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/robzdravevski_btc-volatility-bitcoin-activity-6720225519432019968-0bx0

Another optimal time to buy Bitcoin was when it was oversold around the $5,000 mark in March 2020.

(see the ellipse’s and comments in the chart below)

Being attuned to these moments is one thing but having the conviction and acting decisively on a view or thesis is something else.

November 19, 2020

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

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