Calling the Bitcoin retracement

Yesterday, I provided crypto trading clients with some technical advice about how I see the price action in Bitcoin.

Referencing the dates in each chart (image) below, you will see my comments about ‘heightening buying interest at $29,300’ in the larger June 22 edition.

The close-up chart shows that overnight, Bitcoin traded to a low of US$29,247 and then bounced 11%, back to US$32,600.

For now, I’m happy with that call.

June 23, 2021
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au

Old Skool

I couldn’t help myself.

In the past 2 months….Lumber (shown in blue in the chart below) has outperformed Bitcoin (displayed in orange).

#savealumberjack

April 16, 2021

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

#bitcoin

Not a currency, Not a store of value…

Ethereum and Bitcoin have fallen 25% and 20% in the past 3 days of trading.

Are they really a store of value?
Truly ?

As they surely can’t be considered a currency

February 24, 2021
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au

A 3-sigma event in Bitcoin

A week ago I wrote this about Bitcoin’s price action.

The arrival of the Bitcoin cavalry saw it trade to 3 standard deviations above its weekly mean and thus it’s logical to assume that the ‘fat part of the trade’ has been seen.

Such a 3-sigma event is expected approximately every 3 years.

Earlier this week, it lurched a $1,000 higher to reach $19,500 before falling 11% in the past 2 days.

As I write this, it’s now trading at $17,180.

Whether you consider Bitcoin a currency (which is different to a store of value) or a speculative digital asset, its underlying price volatility makes it a most fascinating asset to monitor, both mathematically and behaviourally.

Over the next couple months, I expect Bitcoin to trade back to the $13,500 level and notwithstanding any upheaval, likely to hold $12,000 as illustrated by the trend lines in the chart below.

Incidentally, over the past 2 days ,XRP and Ethereum (other cryptocurrencies) have fallen 24% and 15% respectively.

November 27, 2020
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au

Weekly Bitcoin price with 3 standard deviation Bollinger Bands

The Bitcoin herd is arriving again

Bitcoin is trading at $18,000 and now, I’m being asked for an opinion.

On October 9th, when Bitcoin was $11,000, I wrote a note about the rare extreme in its volatility reading which augured for a notable rally.

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/robzdravevski_btc-volatility-bitcoin-activity-6720225519432019968-0bx0

Another optimal time to buy Bitcoin was when it was oversold around the $5,000 mark in March 2020.

(see the ellipse’s and comments in the chart below)

Being attuned to these moments is one thing but having the conviction and acting decisively on a view or thesis is something else.

November 19, 2020

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Low Bitcoin volatility leads to a violent move

I am studying Bitcoin volatility and have found that the its 30 day historical volatility has fallen to its lowest level in my 10 years of data.

6 out of 7 times when its fallen to similar levels Bitcoin has rallied notably.

Last night, Bitcoin rose 3% or $300. It is currently trading at $10,878.

And Bitcoin’s correlation to the S&P 500 is ‘growing’.

The weekly chart below paints a clearer picture.

October 9, 2020
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au

Short Bitcoin Call

A quick note to followers – Making a call, Short Bitcoin at current price of $9,320.

Targets are $8,300, then $8,170 and $7,200

Will add to the short at $9,430.
Stop loss will be set at $9,600.

A break in AUDJPY below 0.7160, then 0.7130 aids the short thesis, which includes plenty of cross-asset correlations.

#bitcoin #btc #crypto #cryptocurrency

June 12, 2020
by Rob Zdravevski

Subscribe to my blog: www.robzdravevski.com
Drop me an email: rob@karriasset.com.au
and seek advice or see my Disclaimer link on my blog site

Bitcoin & SPX correlation

Doesn’t Bitcoin (the blue line) seem to have a leading correlation to the S&P 500 ?

 

 

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