Gas prices halve, no surprise

Who would’ve thought that Gas prices could go down, let alone halve.

Well, the Dutch TTF Gas price has as has the Japan Korea LNG Marker (JKM) price.

It may seem perverse that this can happen but not really to others.

Henry Hub Natural Gas has nearly halved from its $10 peak.

Well, its currently $6 and nearing that $5 call I made in this note;

Market forces tend to fix extreme moves in prices.

October 18, 2022

by Rob Zdravevski

Contracting P/E Ratios – European Value

I prefer ‘value’ (rather than growth) stocks being in distress because balance sheet analysis is an added and viable tool.

While there are surely holes in the argument that the ‘E’ (earnings) forecast may still be lowered, I think this market is in the general vicinity of favouring buyers, more so than ‘sellers’.

September 15, 2022

by Rob Zdravevski

Graphic Source: Bloomberg | Jean-Charles GAND

Embracing German pessimism

The pessimism in Europe is not unwarranted, however the stock market is discounting much.

Around February 26 – March 8, 2022, the DAX equity index triggered a ‘trifecta oversold’ buy signal which bodes well for the longer term investor.

Around the price of 13,200 (similar to today’s level), the DAX registered an Oversold RSI level below 30, traded 2.5 standard deviations below its weekly mean and was below its 200 week moving average.

August 23, 2022

by Rob Zdravevski

Europe is concerned about China decoupling

The main message of this report is China ‘channelling’ a macro, trade, political and digital decoupling with Europe.

This theme takes some thinking. Many thought China would find friends or solace amongst Europeans amidst a heated spat with the U.S.

Silk Road rhetoric aside, China is taking a binary road instead. Either they are embracing globalisation or nationalistic protectionism. The latter seems to be the current path.

“It is this blend of China’s conditional coupling, a vast state-aid apparatus and protectionism extended to national

champions, and Beijing’s new-found self-confidence in its non-convergence with Organisation for Economic Cooperation

and Development (OECD) norms and principles that is driving the current ‘crisis of interdependence’ with China.”

October 13, 2021

by Rob Zdravevski

#china #oecd #decoupling

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