Trying to hear what's not being said
April 26, 2024 Leave a comment
Its the 4th time in 10 years that the Australian Dollar #AUD has traded a) at a certain percentage above my long term moving average while b) simultaneously registering an overbought weekly reading and also c) trading at stretched standard deviations above its rolling weekly mean……against the Japanese #JPY Yen.
#AUDJPY
I like watching this currency pair as an indicator of risk appetite.
April 26, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
February 29, 2024 Leave a comment
I think a bit more higher before selling GBP for AUD becomes a good idea.
February 29, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
February 12, 2024 Leave a comment
The currency markets are currently telling me that the mood is “risk-off” which opposes (and somewhat belligerent) the mood of ‘glamour’ equity indices barrelling higher.
The Aussie Dollar is aimless with a bias towards lower prices.
Specifically against the USD, I see it visiting the 0.6350 region and ultimately holding 0.6150 (+/- 30 pips).
There is similar pattern recognition in the #AUD/JPY and the AUD/CHF.
February 12, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
#riskmanagement
December 29, 2023 Leave a comment
In late August 2023, I wrote that the AUD/USD should hold the 0.63/0.64 mark…..and that I didn’t believe the pundits calls back then that it would trade to 60 cents.
It’s lowest weekly closing price was 0.6295.
4 months later, the AUDUSD is now trading at 0.6870 which is 2.5 standard deviations above its weekly mean.
If the strength of the current uptrend wanes, the AUD/USD will lose steam between its current price and 0.70000.
It’s good enough. So far, this has been a 9% move within those 4 months.
Also likely to hamper its progress {sic} will include those same ‘wealth management’ pundits prediction of a 75 cents price.
This advance in the AUD (versus the USD) had a corollary to the ‘risk-on’ feeling that markets exhibited.
It’s pending exhaustion will have the opposite.
December 29, 2023
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
June 10, 2023 Leave a comment
There is more to this analysis, but the chart and notations below are keeping simple.
Today, the AUD/USD needs to break that most immediate previous high of 0.6818, but I think it’ll peak and exhaust itself at 0.6805 (+/- 10bps)
Watching this currency cross along with the AUD/JPY could provide an interesting analog and correlation to ‘risk’ and a queue on the Nasdaq 100.
June 10, 2023
by Rob Zdravevski
Karri Asset Advisors
rob@karriasset.com.au
December 16, 2022 Leave a comment
My read of the gold price, specifically priced in AUD is;
while there are no extreme readings present either side of the pendulum,
the daily trend is turning bearish, albeit its embryonic,
while the medium term upward trend is not under full steam.
This tells me that initiating long positions is merely participatory as the price is in ‘no-mans land’.
There is growing bias for lower prices in AUD priced Gold towards the A$2,420 level, which is approximately 9% lower than today’s A$2,650…..
however I’ll need to see certain support levels pierced in order to confirm any strength in a developing bearish trend.
While a move above A$2,690 begins to dilute this view.
December 16, 2022
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
October 27, 2022 Leave a comment
It’s time to lock in the selling price for your cows.
In other words, for sellers of Cattle, prices are now in the territory of being ‘good enough’.
In fact, beef farmers are looking at Cattle prices trading at ‘extremes’ not seen for a while.
The ‘circles’ in the ‘weekly based” chart below show prices coinciding at certain percentages above Cattle’s 200 week moving average, 2.5 standard deviations above a rolling weekly mean and registering a weekly Overbought RSI reading.
It’s advisable to ‘take the fat part of the trade’.
For Aussie, Canadian and Brazilian beef farmers who are receiving proceeds in USD, you’re in a particular purple patch whilst your currencies are trading at reasonable weakness.
Albeit, currency conversion is a seperate trade.
Specifically, for the AUD/USD, I think there is a good probability of seeing the AUD/USD trade below 63 cents again, in the near term.
October 27, 2022
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
October 17, 2022 Leave a comment
A Weekly Oversold reading in the AUD/CAD signals a reasonable buying opportunity in the ASX 200
One hiccup occurred in September 2018 denoted by the red vertical line.
The AUD/CAD isn’t Oversold at the moment, nor is the ASX 200
October 17, 2022
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
October 11, 2022 Leave a comment
The next and perhaps last point for the AUD/USD in this last downward leg sits around 0.6210 (+/- 20 basis points)
The AUD/USD is entering a 5th moment of being Oversold in the past 8 years.
This can be paraphrased by saying we are in the vicinity and ‘it’s good enough’.
So, I’m selling some USD and buying AUD.
This currency low and pending reversal or reversion will also has have affect on assets such as Copper, Oil and Gold.
October 11, 2022
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
September 24, 2022 Leave a comment
3 days ago, I wrote that Oil needed a quick drop of ‘$2 or $3’ in order to extend some strength in oil’s current downtrend.
WTI Crude fell $4.75 on Friday, closing its trading week at $78.74
Equally, the AUD/USD exhibited expected weakness during Friday’s session. It closed at 0.6531.
So, I’ll watch for how the AUD/USD and WTI Crude symbiotically test their next respective levels of 0.6464 and $77.50, as neither ‘daily’ downtrends are confirming continuing strength.
Hint: probability is rising that we are at the tail-end (+/- 3%-6%) of the downdraft in both assets.
September 24, 2022
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
rob zdravevski's blog 