Understanding risk/adjusted – Australian Banks

Indeed, there are times when to sell Australian bank shares.

This study below shows moments when the stock price in Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) was stretched.

Ignoring such signals means investors are leaving money ‘at risk’ when probability suggests valuations are full or lower prices beckon.

Irrespective that Australian banks have always traded at a premium to their global peers, resting on the mantra that ‘you can’t go wrong owning the banks’ is false.

And finding solace, that ‘at least I’m receiving my dividends’ is not addressing the risk being taken for such a return.

CBA”s stock price is now trading at the same price as March 2015 (that’s 8 years ago) while Westpac is trading at the same price as 2008, 2010 and 2012.

March 23, 2023

by Rob Zdravevski


Don’t take more risk than you need to

I’m re-visiting a decision I made on September 1st, when I decided to sell shares in PayPal.

<original link>

The chart and commentary within is my attempt to say that when a company is fully valued there is diminishing merit in risking your capital when your analysis suggests the reward isn’t so ravishing anymore.

For those interested, since September 1st, PayPal shares advanced 7.8% while the S&P 500 Index rose 3.4%

December 15, 2020
by Rob Zdravevski

Watching the AUDJPY


I’m watching an acute short-term moment on this quite reliable indicator of “risk” or at least market direction and sentiment.

The chart below shows today’s early action of the AUDJPY peppering that descending trend line. Tie that into yesterdays post (link below) and you can watch how other assets react.


October 6, 2020
by Rob Zdravevski

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