Middle Eastern Urea prices join the Oversold parade

Overnight’s stunning 12% decline in the Middle East FOB Urea price has seen it revert back to its 200 week moving average, as the chart below illustrates.

It also registered a Weekly Oversold reading which was last seen 3 years ago.

The other 2 charts included show how the prices of Wheat and the Japan Korea LNG Marker dance along with the Middle Eastern Urea price.

January 27, 2023

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Food Insecurity

“As many as 811 million people — about a 10th of the global population — were undernourished in 2020, the UN said in a report on Monday.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-12/world-hunger-surged-to-15-year-high-as-virus-stifled-food-access?sref=qLOW1ygh

Of the “undernourished”,

“Roughly a third of all people lacked access to adequate food, a figure that rose by 320 million from a year earlier, about as much as in the previous five years combined.”

I am flabbergasted to read this and perhaps naive.

Perhaps instead of funding businesses creating a new dancing, photo, video, shopping sharing app…..here is a problem to solve….

Not snobs – We’re just a bunch of drunks

 

A recent article in The Australian newspaper (see link below) highlighted more than the buying power exhibited by Australia’s dominant supermarkets has over wine producers. It talked about how the supermarket duopoly is selling its own branded wine too.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/executive-living/fear-and-loathing-in-the-wine-aisles/story-e6frg9zo-1226717170986

A report from Australia’s Bureau of Statistics says that beer consumption amongst Aussies has hit a 66 year low, while wine sales have risen. News agencies have tried to spin their feeble creative minds to develop a story based around our growing sophistication towards finer tastes. Interestingly the report doesn’t tell us at which price point most of the wine was bought at, but I can confidently predict it wasn’t at the middle nor higher end of the price range.The reason that wine sales are growing is because wine is cheap. It is being sold cheaply by the supermarkets who account for 77% of the domestic wine sales. The reason beer sales are falling is because its expensive.

Mainstream consumers are looking for a cheap way to get drunk at the behest of drinking a quality artisan product.

The price of beer has risen over the past 30 or so years, yet we still think you can buy a glass of beer for $1 at the local bowls club.

Some fancy pubs & restaurants charge $9-$10 for a pint of beer and many happily pay for it, because it’s “craft beer”.

Wine producers at the medium to premium end of the market need to continue to focus on improving their brand, the quality of their product & the “love & care” that they put into making their wine. This is their differentiation, just like craft beer makers are doing it.

One benefit of living in “wine country” is that I have friends who are wine makers and mine happen to all be a part of boutique, independent enterprises. They do not try to be volume based manufacturers. They do not create “cookie cutter” batches of wine.

A $9 bottle of wine tastes like a $9 bottle of wine.

If you choose to enter the lower end of the market, you then compete against those who can be the lowest cost producer and have pricing power. This shouldn’t be a surprise.

We drink a $28 bottle of wine because the quality, love & taste shows.

 

 

 

 

 

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