Macro Extremes (week ending May 1, 2026)

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

U.S. 10-year breakeven inflation rate

Cattle

Wheat

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Australian and Japanese 2-year government bond yields

5 & 10-year Japanese bond yields

AUD/CHF

AUD/EUR

AUD/IDR *

AUD/INR

AUD/JPY *

AUD/SGD *

AUD/THB *

BRL/USD *

CNH/USD *

USD/IDR

Aluminium *

Commodity Bloomberg Commodity Index *

Heating Oil

Gasoline *

Rubber

CRB Index *

Urea (U.S. Gulf and Middle East) *

Gasoil *

BUX equity index *

Egypt’s EGX Index *

TAIEX *

KOSPI *

And Norway’s OBX

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Cotton *

Philadelphia’s SOX Index *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

PHP/USD

Lumber

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

Australian 10-year minus Aussie 2-year bond yield spread *

CHF/AUD *

EUR/AUD

JPY/AUD *

NZD/AUD *

USD/BRL

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

None

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond rose again but did so, quietly.

U.S. inflation break-even rates climbed to ‘newer’ highs.

Therefore, the U.S. 10-year yield minus 10-year inflation breakeven rate spread rose and in doing do, snapped 4 weeks of decline.

The Chilean 10-2-year yield spread and the Copper/Gold Ratio have risen for 4 straight weeks.

And the Chinese 10-year yields have fallen for the past 4 weeks.

Equities were mixed in a quieter week.

Shanghai Composite, CSI 300 and the KOSPI are in a 4-week winning streak.

The China A50, Nasdaq Composite, Nasdaq 100, SOX and S&P 500 have closed higher for 5 straight weeks.

The S&P SmallCap 600, Russell 2000 and Vietnam’s VN Index have climbed for 6 consecutive weeks.

While Taiwan’s TAEIX is trading at nearly 100% above its 4-year mean.

Commodities firmed.

Coal, Oil, Cotton, Orange Juice, Gases, Sugar, Corn and Wheat were the notable gainers.

Aluminium, Tin, Coffee, Copper and Gold were amongst the decliners.

Iron Ore is in a 4-week winning streak.

The Gold Volatility Index rose and broke 4 weeks of decline.

Aluminium fell and broke its 5-week higher run.

While Rotterdam Coal rose and snapped 7 weeks of losses.

Gasoline has advanced 21% for the past 2 weeks.

Brent Crude Oil has soared 28% over the past fortnight.

AUD Gold price is seeing its lowest weekly RSI reading since October 2023.

And Middle East Urea prices have seen 11 consecutive advancing weeks.

Currencies were busy.

The Aussie has risen for 5 weeks against the Swissie, Euro, Rupiah and Singapore Dollar and its nearly overbought across a range of pairs.

The CAD/USD, GBP/EUR, GBP/USD and USD/IDR are also in 5-week winning streaks.

AUD/INR and the AUD/THB have climbed for 4 weeks.

The Loonie rose, again.

Yen was stronger.

COP/USD fell 3% and snapped a 7-week winning streak.

The Euro weakened, again.

BRL/USD has climbed for 7 weeks.

And the British Pound was mixed.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Richards Bay Coal 7.7%, Rotterdam Coal 3.5%, Bloomberg Commodity Index 3%, Baltic Dry Index 2.4%, Brent Crude Oil 9.1%, Cocoa 4.9%, WTI Crude Oil 8%, Cotton 6.2%, Heating Oil 4%, JKM LNG 1.9%, Cattle 3.2%, JKM LNG in Yen 2.5%, Lithium Carbonate 4.8%, Newcastle Coal 4.2%, Natural Gas 2.9%, Nickel 1.8%, Orange Juice 16.6%, Palladium 2.4%, Gasoline 8%, Sugar 6.8%, S&P GSCI 4.4%, Rubber 2.8%, CRB Index 3.8%, Dutch TTF Gas 2.1%, Gasoil 4%, Corn 3%, Oats 4.1%, Soybeans 2.1%, Wheat 3.4%, MIB 1.2%, Dublin 2.6%, KRE Regional Banks 1.4%, KOSPI 1.9%, Nasdaq 100 1.5%, OMX 1.6%, Lisbon 2.5%, SET 2.6%, TA35 1.4% and the ASX Industrials rose 1.5%.

The group of largest decliners for the week included; 

Aluminium (2.2%), Copper (1.6%), Arabica Coffee (1.7%), Lumber (1.6%), Lithium Hydroxide (2.8%), Tin (3%), Robusta Coffee (3.4%), Gold in AUD (2.8%), Gold in CAD (2.6%), Gold in CHF (2.4%), Gold in GBP (2.4%), Gold in USD (2%), IDX (2.4%), DJ Transports (1.4%), IBB Biotech (1.5%), BOVESPA (1.8%), KSE (4.5%), Mexico (2%), NBI Biotech (1.7%), Stockholm (1.3%), PSE (1.8%), PX (2.4%), SA40 (1.5%), IGPA (2.2%), Nasdaq Transports (2.8%), XBI (2.2%) and Poland’s WIG Index fell 1.6%.

May 3 2026

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au