Macro Extremes (week ending May 8, 2026)

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

U.S. 3, 5 and 7 year government bond yields

U.S. 5 year minus U.S. 3 month yield spread

Shanghai Rebar

KLSE

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Japanese 5 & 10-year government bond yields

Australian Coking Coal

AUD/CAD

AUD/CHF *

AUD/GBP

AUD/IDR *

AUD/INR *

AUD/JPY *

AUD/SGD *

AUD/THB *

AUD/USD

BRL/USD *

USD/IDR *

Commodity Bloomberg Commodity Index *

Aluminium *

Cotton *

Gasoline *

China Iron Ore

Rubber *

CRB Index *

Urea (U.S. Gulf and Middle East) *

BUX equity index *

Egypt’s EGX Index *

Russell 2000

Nikkei 225

S&P 500

Israel’s TA-35

And Türkiye’s BIST Index

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Baltic Dry Index

TAIEX *

Nasdaq Composite

KOSPI *

Nasdaq 100

Philadelphia’s SOX Index *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

None

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

CAD/AUD

CHF/AUD *

EUR/AUD *

JPY/AUD *

NZD/AUD *

USD/CNH *

USD/BRL *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

None

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yield fell.

Korean 10-year yields have risen for 4 weeks.

The Copper/Gold Ratio have risen for 5 straight weeks.

And the Chinese 10-year yields rose and snapped 4 weeks of decline.

Equities moved higher.

The big news in equities is the Russell 200, Nikkei 225, S&P 500, the Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq 100 join the overbought list.

Shanghai Composite, CSI 300 and the KOSPI are in a 5-week winning streak.

The China A50, Nasdaq Composite, Nasdaq 100, SOX and S&P 500 have closed higher for 6 straight weeks.

The S&P SmallCap 600, Russell 2000 and Vietnam’s VN Index have climbed for 7 consecutive weeks.

While Brazil’s BOVESPA has declined for the past 4 weeks.

Commodities were mixed.

Coal, Cocoa, Copper, Lithium, Tin, Silver and Rice were the notable gainers.

Crude Oil, Gases, Distillates, Nickel, Coffee, Urea and Wheat were amongst the decliners.

Cattle, Heating Oil, Gasoil & Wheat left overbought territory.

Australian Coking Coal is in a 4-week winning streak.

Iron Ore fell and broke a 4 week winning run .

The Baltic Dry Index has risen for 6 weeks.

And the Middle East Urea price fell and snapped 11 consecutive weeks of advance.

Currencies were busy, again.

News in currencies was the AUD/USD reaching an overbought extreme.

Aussie/Rupee has climbed for 5 weeks.

The Aussie has risen for 6 weeks against the Euro, Rupiah and Singapore Dollar.

The CAD/USD fell and broke its 4 week winning run.

BRL/USD has climbed for 8 weeks.

While the CAD/USD and AUD/THB fell and snapped winning streaks.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Richards Bay Coal 2.7%, Baltic Dry Index 9.1%, Cocoa 16.3%, Copper 5.2%, Lithium Carbonate 8%, Lithium Hydroxide 7%, Tin 9.3%, Platinum 2.4%, Iron Ore China 2.9%, Silver in AUD 6%, Silver in USD 6.6%, Gold in AUD 1.6%, Gold in CAD 2.8%, Gold in EUR 1.7%, Gold in GBP 1.8%, Gold in USD 2.2%, Rice 8.2%, Shanghai 1.7%, All World Developed ex USA 2.1% ATX 1.5%, DFMM 2.4%, EGX 3.6%, FCATC 6.9%, MIB 2.2%, Hang Seng 2.4%, IBB 1.6%, Russell 2000 1.8%, TAIEX 6.9%, Nasdaq Composite 4.5%, KLSE 1.7%, KSE 5%, KOSPI 13.6%, FTSE 250 1.4%, S&P Midcap 400 1.6%, Mexico 2.9%, NBII 2.2%, Nasdaq 100 5.5%, Nikkei 225 5.4%, PSE 2.2%, SA40 2.7%, SOX 11.1%, S&P 500 2.3%, TA35 2%, BIST 4.3%, Vietnam 3.3%, XBI 3.3% and the ASX Materials rose 4.3%.

The group of largest decliners for the week included; 

Brent Crude (6.4%), WTI Crude (6.4%), Lean Hogs (2.6%), Arabica Coffee (4.1%), Cattle (1.6%), LNG JKM in Yen (3.3%), Newcastle Coal (2.3%), Nickel (2.6%), Orange Juice (3.2%), Palladium (3.8%), Gasoline (1.9%), Sugar (1.7%), S&P GSCI (3.7%), Dutch TTF Gas (3.6%), Urea (4.4%), Gasoil (8.2%), Corn (1.9%), Wheat (2.9%), KBW Bank Index (1.9%), DJ Transports (1.9%), OBX (2.4%), Helsinki (1.4%) and Filipino PSI fell 1.9%.

May 10 2026

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au