Trying to hear what's not being said
July 12, 2021 Leave a comment
Globally, 5% more rigs have been put to work since last month.
An increase of 63 rigs and it’s being seen in the America’s with the Canadians becoming notably busier.
I’ll assume tar sands become more feasible with Crude at $75?
June 28, 2021 Leave a comment
Here’s a market call for you….Brent Crude is about to top out at the $78.50 level.
I’ve been bullish about the Oil price for the past year and remain so over the longer term, but parabolic advances also need a break and some consolidation.
My technical work suggests the crude oil price peaks soon and comes back to test the $64-$62 mark in the coming months.
See my 20+ year chart below. Amongst many extreme coincidences, we are also nearing a 50% move (between the 1999 low and the 2008 high) along with testing the underside of an ominous downward sloping trendline.
Anecdotally, many now are calling Oil to a $100…..and so I ask, where were they when Brent was $30 or $40….another moment of popular pundits making calls at the nutty end of a run which has seen Brent Crude Oil nearly quintuple from its $16 low in March 2020.
Ultimately, I think Oil goes to $120 – $140, in a massive ‘last’ hurrah…I’ll write more about that in a few months time.
For now, it’s time for the Oil price to shake a few people out and I love a good shakeout.
This also means having a think about your Oil & Gas equity positions.
In fact, many of them are already exhibiting weakness.
June 28, 2021
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
May 31, 2021 Leave a comment
The ‘de-correlation’ and anomaly of the Woodside Energy (WPL.AX) share price.
May 31, 2021
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
March 12, 2021 Leave a comment
My current read of the Brent Crude Oil price is….
if it closes above $70, then there is clear air to the $74-$76 region, while probability of a spurt to $80-$82 remains, such a move would swing the pendulum into extreme territory.
and then we’ll see OPEC start to increase output.
Basically, traders are waiting for a break above $70 and if they see it, then watch them pile in.
for context though, going Long Oil today (currently trading at $69.50) is a marginal bet. I see the risk/reward equation as being either $6 up or down.
After all, Brent Crude already seems stretched on various measures after having tripled from its $16 low in April 2020. Establishing a new ‘long’ position at this moment is akin to squeezing the last 10% out of a trade.
Keep in mind, that markets tend to move in the direction where they can inflict the most damage……..and a $80 oil price would hurt more (politically and commercially) than if fell to $50.
March 12, 2021
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
March 8, 2021 Leave a comment
Brent moved $10 higher (from $60) to my mentioned target (see linked story below) of $70 within a month.
There is reasonable probability of $75 being next and $84 would make a few squirm.
https://robzdravevski.com/2021/02/09/oils-stealthy-rise-and-still-going/
March 8, 2021
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
March 5, 2021 Leave a comment
I wrote the linked article in September 2012 when Oil was trading at $117, predicting bearish times ahead.
Since the rout in the first half of 2020, I have been an oil bull.
https://robzdravevski.com/2012/09/17/lower-oil-prices-by-2020/
March 5, 2021
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
March 4, 2021 Leave a comment
OPEC are meeting today, it could be a doozy….murmurs of supply cuts.
My question to answer what OPEC may decide is…..
what do the Saudi’s and Russia want or need ??
and what will hurt America the most ??
especially following the recent accusations made by the U.S about MBS and Biden approved missile strikes against Iranian backed militia…….
the answer is higher oil prices.
Logic suggests a nice reversion of Brent back to $53 would be sensible, equitable etc.
but without being a purposeful antagonist and we are a year on from last years March 8th stoush,
although Brent at $75 would remind many who’s in charge….
and I reiterate that inflation (meaning higher interest rates and higher government and corporate debt servicing costs) will likely come from higher prices in the energy complex and definitely not from services and consumer products.
March 4, 2021
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
December 17, 2020 Leave a comment
Today, at $51.10, Brent Crude Oil has registered its most ‘daily’ overbought reading since January 3rd, 2020 (when it was trading at $70).
I’m still bullish on the price of Oil but its telling me to harvest a little as prices should take a pause.
December 17, 2020
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
October 20, 2020 Leave a comment
Putin and MbS are having talks again,
watch the oil price,
timing interesting near the U.S. election,
output cuts are the logical bet,
there is nothing like petro-nations needing petro-dollars.
October 8, 2020 Leave a comment
This is the lowest amount of oil rigs in operation within the United States since……”like ever”.
For the Oil, Gas and Statistic nerds – Scroll through the historical data in this link and you’ll be quite amazed.
Do you know what is currently going cheap in the world ?
Buying or renting an oil rig……
October 8, 2020
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
rob zdravevski's blog 