Iron Ore still not taking me higher
January 21, 2022 Leave a comment
As the week progressed, Iron Ore still didn’t / couldn’t make the higher high highlighted in my post earlier this week.

Trying to hear what's not being said
January 21, 2022 Leave a comment
As the week progressed, Iron Ore still didn’t / couldn’t make the higher high highlighted in my post earlier this week.
October 13, 2021 Leave a comment
Here is an ongoing series of posts about Fortescue Metals (FMG.AX) and how it has traded at percentage extremes above it 200 week moving average. This helps tell you when chasing a stock higher becomes perilous in the face of a mean reversion, often when the tide and sentiment turns at its worst.
I don’t hate the stock nor the company. I’m just calling it as I see it.
For more than a year, FMG.AX has defied gravity.
If we see a break below $13.71, sees the stock visit $11.70 – $12.00, failing that it may test the $7.00 level.
Absurd perhaps but not impossible.
October 13, 2021
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
#ironore #fmg
September 2, 2021 Leave a comment
A ton of Iron Ore is now 25% cheaper than a ton of Jarrah firewood.
With all my writing about extremes and mean reversion, Iron Ore is reaching an interim point which increases probability of a ‘buying’ moment.
Currently, it is trading at US$145 per ton.
The chart below circles an area between US$124 and $132 which I think (in conjunction with my other indicators) present an opportunity for a ‘trading buy’.
Incidentally, that upward sloping line is Iron Ore’s 100 week moving average.
So, I’m looking for a 14% drop in the coming 15 days to satisfy a buying criteria and this will have an effect of your listed iron ore sensitive equities.
BHP at $40.45 perhaps?
September 2, 2021
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
October 28, 2020 Leave a comment
During a client call yesterday, I was trying to give an example of what I thought was a ‘marginal trade’ and Fortescue Metals (FMG.AX) came to mind.
Coupled with my quick view of the iron ore supply and demand landscape, an iron ore price trading at the upper end of its historical range and a technical analysis snapshot, my opinion was that FMG either trades up or down $4, from its current price of $16.30.
Albeit a 25% return is enticing, an even money bet of perhaps losing 25% renders it a ‘marginal trade’.
To some extent, this can also be example where the investor needs to quantify or understand how much risk they are taking, compared to the return they are seeking.
Incidentally, in June 2020 I published an article (see link below) titled, “Iron Ore – As Good As It Gets”
#riskadjusted
#fmg
October 28, 2020
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au