Ethereum trading call

Last Friday afternoon (June 25, 2021), I wrote this note to some clients trading Ethereum.

“ETH downtrend (on a daily basis) is intact and remains strong,
this is seconded with ETH entering a new weekly downtrend,

In the very short term (days), ETH is entering an acute technical squeeze,
it is trading at $1,952 as I write this,
a break above $2,150 increases probability of a visit to $2,620
a break below $1,860 suggest $1,730,
below that my ’scorched earth’ Buy is between $1,280 – $1,350 during the July 3rd-12th timeframe”

What happened next ?

……within 1 day, somewhere between Friday 4.30pm AEST and early Saturday evening, Ethereum dived 12% to a low of $1,715.

My note suggested a decline to $1,730. 
ETH found support at that level,
it has since bounced 22% from $1,730.
(ETH is currently $2,107 as I write this)

And so I direct you to the chart below,
it’s a ‘close-up’ of current price action,
so it’s relevant to reference the initial June 25 comments.

“a break above $2,150 increases probability of a visit to $2,620”

so…Long trade remains and the stop loss is at $2,020 (just below the new upward sloping trend line) thus protecting $1,730 long entry.

* not personal advice, just some storytelling, don’t sue me, seek advice or do your work*

June 30, 2021
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au

rypto

Not a currency, Not a store of value…

Ethereum and Bitcoin have fallen 25% and 20% in the past 3 days of trading.

Are they really a store of value?
Truly ?

As they surely can’t be considered a currency

February 24, 2021
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au

Questioning if Bitcoin is Worthless

While I now hear of predications that Bitcoin will reach $100,000, I don’t hear many asking what if Bitcoin is worthless?

Overnight;

Ripple has fallen 40%
Ethereum has declined 7%
Litecoin has sunk 11%
EOS has retreated 20%

On 18 of the past 60 days, Bitcoin has risen or fallen 4% or more from its previous day’s close.

Currencies (or the “heir apparent’s”) shouldn’t be moving that much and if they are, it’s not a healthy sign.

After all, Bitcoin is already 11 years old.

(note: isn’t it funny that cryptocurrencies are being quoted and traded against that ‘old enemy’ being the fiat currency)

If crypto currencies aren’t ‘influenced’ by a government then how will we make economic adjustments for inflation?

If we start using Bitcoin to pay for food, fuel and rent, will inflation (or deflation) no longer exist?

If there isn’t any inflation, revenues, expenses, deficits, surpluses and perhaps taxes connected, how do I value a cryptocurrency?

Is it part of a greater fool theory?
Are we relying in the pure speculative value of the currency?

Is it there ‘scarcity’ of units issued which allows cryptocurrencies to rise or retain their value?

For it can’t scarcity of actual currencies, as there are 180 fiat currencies in the world (the top 10 are 90% of FX trade), while there are estimates of between 4,000 and 7,000 cryptocurrencies existing and 1,000 have been reported to have failed.

December 24, 2020
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au

Bitcoin is silently screaming

A month ago, I wrote the post linked below, the currencies mentioned have held their supports as did Bitcoin.

Since then, Bitcoin has advanced 40% in the past 30 days.

https://robzdravevski.com/2020/10/05/short-term-aud-fx-range/

November 5, 2020
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au

Short Bitcoin Call

A quick note to followers – Making a call, Short Bitcoin at current price of $9,320.

Targets are $8,300, then $8,170 and $7,200

Will add to the short at $9,430.
Stop loss will be set at $9,600.

A break in AUDJPY below 0.7160, then 0.7130 aids the short thesis, which includes plenty of cross-asset correlations.

#bitcoin #btc #crypto #cryptocurrency

June 12, 2020
by Rob Zdravevski

Subscribe to my blog: www.robzdravevski.com
Drop me an email: rob@karriasset.com.au
and seek advice or see my Disclaimer link on my blog site

Bitcoin – Not A Passing Fad

I love how crypto coins are making governments nervous.

Personally I’m not a user of it, but I can understand its allure to the nonconformists, to those who like to be considered as “early adopters” and those who just don’t want to be traced.

Bitcoin proponents are looking for ways to have their virtual currency legitimised (in terms of acceptance) but at the same time, government will want to regulate it based around protecting the consumer but the real reason will be so that they can tax it.

Ya Gotta Know How To Tax ‘Em

Government knows how to tax petrol (gasoline), cigarettes, ownership of land, income, sales of goods and capital gains realised on the sale of assets.

This is why I think Electric Vehicles (EV’s) don’t stand a chance of real success. Government support of EV’s is a mere sideshow to appease the “Green Lobby” and until government learns how to tax the electricity trickle from the powerpoint in your garage, then EV’s won’t become too popular. Interestingly,  New Jersey, Colorado, Texas, Arizona, and Virginia have all prohibited Tesla from selling cars in their states, mainly because that their direct internet selling model pisses off the incumbent dealership model ( see an older post from 2013, http://wp.me/p1d84Y-mr ) but it probably didn’t help when a couple Tesla’s were bought using Bitcoin.

Battle Is Just Beginning

U.S. tax authorities have classified Bitcoin as property, which the “crypto industry” doesn’t like.

The Aust. Taxation Office is now trying to figure out taxation guidelines surrounding Bitcoin and other crypto currencies.

An Aussie tax partner has said that under Aust. GST laws, Bitcoin wouldn’t be classified as money as it is not backed by a government. That must be annoying for the government.

Nervousness exists because Bitcoin and other crypto currencies have become a money supply which is not controlled by the state in its currently acceptable fiat format.

It cuts out the middle man!

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