Ship out the Cattle herd

It’s time to lock in the selling price for your cows.

In other words, for sellers of Cattle, prices are now in the territory of being ‘good enough’.

In fact, beef farmers are looking at Cattle prices trading at ‘extremes’ not seen for a while.

The ‘circles’ in the ‘weekly based” chart below show prices coinciding at certain percentages above Cattle’s 200 week moving average, 2.5 standard deviations above a rolling weekly mean and registering a weekly Overbought RSI reading.

It’s advisable to ‘take the fat part of the trade’.

For Aussie, Canadian and Brazilian beef farmers who are receiving proceeds in USD, you’re in a particular purple patch whilst your currencies are trading at reasonable weakness.

Albeit, currency conversion is a seperate trade.

Specifically, for the AUD/USD, I think there is a good probability of seeing the AUD/USD trade below 63 cents again, in the near term.

October 27, 2022

by Rob Zdravevski

Where’s The Beef?

I think Cattle prices have reached an interim high.

CME prices are currently US$1.38 per pound.

Whether you’re a farmer, producer, investor, processor or speculator, I would either lock in forward prices or take the money and run (all the way until the cows come home…..)

The fat part of the trade has been had. The chart below shows the Cattle price rising 64% over the past 18 months.

My medium-term downside price target is $1.10.

That could also mean selling your shares in the world’s largest meatpacker, JBS. Its price chart showing its stellar performance is also attached.

Does this make shares in plant based, meat substitute company, Beyond Meat (BYND) attractive?

November 25, 2021
by Rob Zdravevski

#cattle #beef

Political Trade Destruction

Dear Australian #auspol politicians involved in incompetent trade and diplomatic rhetoric……it is in the “Chinese” tea leaves, that Iron Ore is next on the list of ‘sanctions’. I just wish the media would call them sanctions. It would sell so much more advertising…..

Politicians who are inexperienced in business and unable reading the geopolitical mood are causing more damage than their pea brains can possibly imagine.

Don’t they understand that a backbencher from an obscure political seat calling for an “inquiry into the origins of a Chinese flu” is a badly weighted bet and ramifications of the rebuttal can hardy be comprehended by someone inadequately positioned to speak in a manner within a nation’s parliament.

In these circumstances, political table-pounding seldom prevails over commercial reality and necessity.

Don’t look know, but to the complacent producers of current and future ‘sanctioned’ products, our politicians are doing some effective price mean reversion on behalf of your wallet.

October 13, 2020
by Rob Zdravevski

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