Nvidia in rare air again

The chart below shows the percentage that Nvidia (NVDA:US) is trading above its 200 week moving average.

In 2002 I wrote of Nvidia’s stretched price action and how mean reversion beckoned.

Then in his note below highlights the decline the stock should make as it was heading towards its 200 week moving average.

Since that mean reversion, we’ve seen another parabolic price move.

While it’s a stupendous result for those who accumulated the stock down near that $120 level, I’m miffed by the motivations of the buyers in today’s market with the stock in the $380 price region.

The law of large numbers also comes to mind as Nvidia approaches a market capitalisation of $800 billion.

Caveat Emptor !

May 25, 2023

by Rob Zdravevski


Sell signal – Nvidia (NVDA)

In late 2021 and early 2022, I wrote often about the peak in the equity prices of semiconductor companies.

Then this note on October 11, 2022 (only 4 months ago) suggested a pending low in those related stocks.

Specifically, I wrote that I was looking for a low in the price of Nvidia stock between $105 – $108 as a buying point.

The next day, it traded to a low of $108.13…..

This week, it was time to get out again.

The intra-week high of $219.49 told me that the ‘fat part of the trade’ has been seen or had.

This call is still valid at the most recent closing price of $211.

Beyond my various reasonings suggesting a current peak……a 102% advance in 4 months should satisfy most {sic} all.

Or put another way, as stellar as the return is, this is a ‘get out of jail free’ card for many, while for anyone who bought this stock before October 2021 remains underwater.

If it’s not a current peak, I am definitely not a buyer of Nvidia with ‘new money’ at the prevailing prices.

The same goes for the SOX (the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index)

February 5, 2023

by Rob Zdravevski


Another FANNGM is doing it

The Nvidia (NVDA:US) mean reversion is almost done.

It doesn’t necessarily mean that its 200 week moving average is the place to buy, as it may overshoot to the $103-$115 mark…..

this chart did tell you that it was dangerous chasing and buying this stock at stretched valuations as it soared way above its 200 WMA.

September 14, 2022

by Rob Zdravevski


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