Sell signal – Nvidia (NVDA)

In late 2021 and early 2022, I wrote often about the peak in the equity prices of semiconductor companies.

Then this note on October 11, 2022 (only 4 months ago) suggested a pending low in those related stocks.

Specifically, I wrote that I was looking for a low in the price of Nvidia stock between $105 – $108 as a buying point.

The next day, it traded to a low of $108.13…..

This week, it was time to get out again.

The intra-week high of $219.49 told me that the ‘fat part of the trade’ has been seen or had.

This call is still valid at the most recent closing price of $211.

Beyond my various reasonings suggesting a current peak……a 102% advance in 4 months should satisfy most {sic} all.

Or put another way, as stellar as the return is, this is a ‘get out of jail free’ card for many, while for anyone who bought this stock before October 2021 remains underwater.

If it’s not a current peak, I am definitely not a buyer of Nvidia with ‘new money’ at the prevailing prices.

The same goes for the SOX (the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index)

February 5, 2023

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au