Macro Extremes #285 (week ending November 6, 2026)

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets, on a weekly timeframe, either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below their rolling mean.

NB: Pricing of commodity futures contracts considers only the immediate front-month contract.

* denotes multiple-week inclusion.

---

Extremes Above the Mean (At least 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

CAD/AUD

GBP/AUD

USD/BRL

Ireland’s ISEQ Index

Mexico’s IPC Index

Denmark’s OMXC Index *

Switzerland’s SMI Index

---

Overbought (RSI > 70)

U.S. high yield bond index

JKM LNG in Yen *

Rice *

---

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and >2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

Indian 10-year government bond yield *

North American Hot Rolled Coil Steel
GBP/EUR *

---

Extremes Below the Mean (At least 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

Korean 10-year bond yield

Palm Oil

Tin *

AUD/CAD

AUD/GBP

AUD/INR

AUD/SGD

BRL/USD *

All Worl Developed ex USA index

Taiwan’s TAIEX Index

Nasdaq Composite

Nasdaq 100

Nikkei 225

Thailand’s SET Index *

Philadelphia SOX Index

And Israel’s TA-35 Index

---

Oversold (RSI < 30)

Lumber

Lithium Hydroxide *

EUR/GBP

CSI 300 Index *

China A50 Index *

---

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and >2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

Chinese 10-year government bond yield

Lean Hogs *

EUR/GBP *

Indonesia’s IDX Composite

---

Notes & Ideas

Government Bond Yields Fell

A few more bond yields along with the U.S. 30-year mortgage rate are no longer overbought.

U.S. BB high yield has risen for 4 weeks.

IEF, IEI and TLT have closed higher for 5 weeks.

Austrian, Australian, Swiss, German, Danish, Finnish, Korean, Norwegian and Kiwi 10-year bond yields have fallen for 4 weeks.

As have the Aussie 10 year minus 2-year bond yield spread, Chilean 10 year minus 2-year bond yield spread, European 3-, 5-, 20- and 30-year yields and British 10-, 20- and 30-year yields.

The U.S. 5–7-year corporate bond yield spread, Japanese 10-year yield, TBT, TBX and U.S. 3, 5, 7-, 10-, 20- & 30-year yields along with the U.S. 5 year minus U.S. 3-month bill yield spread and U.S. 10 year minus EU 10-year bond yield spread also declined for 5 weeks.

Irish and Dutch 10-year bond yields, Japanese 5-year yield, U.S. 2’s, the U.S. 5 year minus U.S. inflation rate spread and the U.S. 10 year minus U.S. inflation rate spread have fallen for 6 weeks.

---

Equities Were Surprisingly Mixed, Again

Copenhagen and the SMI have risen for 5 weeks.

ASX Industrials are in a 6-week winning streak.

Inversely, the TAIEX, Nasdaq Composite, Nasdaq 100, SET and S&P 500 have declined for 4 weeks.

SOX has fallen for 5 weeks.

Shanghai Composite and FCATC rose and snapped a 6-week losing streak.

BIST rose and broke 7 weeks of losses.

China A50 is in a 13 week losing streak.

The All World Developed ex USA and KOSPI rose and snapped 4-week losing streak.

While the FCATC Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 rose and saw their respective winning streaks come to an end.

---

Commodity Prices Had a Lower Bias

Lithium, Nickel, Precious Metals and Orange Juice were the notable gainers.

Coal, Oil, Distillates, Palm Oil, Hogs, Tin, Sugar and Copper were amongst the largest decliners.

Copper, Oats and Soybeans have fallen for 4 weeks.

Cocoa and Hogs have declined for 5 weeks.

Corn is in a 6-week slump.

Wheat is in a 10-week losing streak.

Brent, Dutch TTF Gas and JKM LNG fell and broke winning runs.

Platinum and Palladium rose and snapped their 6-week run of losses.

And Lithium Carbonate rose and broke a 4-week losing streak.

---

Currencies Were Active

The Swissie and Euro were stronger.

The Aussie and Loonie were weaker.

The former has many pairs featured in this week’s list.

CAD winning streaks, listed last week, came to an end.

USD was mixed.

EUR/GBP has fallen for 6 weeks.

EUR/CHF has declined for 8 weeks.

CHN/USD fell and broke a 5-week winning streak.

While the USD/MXN pair fell and snapped 8 weeks of higher closes.

USD/MXN has closed higher for 8 weeks.

---

The Week’s Larger Advancers

The larger advancers over the past week comprised:

Baltic Dry Index 3.4%, Cotton 1.6%, Lithium Carbonate 6.8%, Natural Gas 3.5%, Nickel 7%, Orange Juice 5.5%, Palladium 3%, Platinum 7%, Robusta Coffee 2.1%, CFR Iron Ore 2%, Silver in AUD 8.3%, Silver in USD 5.7%, Gold 5%, Rice 2%, CSI 300 1.7%, CAC 2.1%, DFM 4.4%, EGX 3.1%, FCATC 5.7%, Tadawul 2.2%, HSCEI 5.2%, Hang Seng 5.1%, IBEX 3.8%, Dublin 3.4%, KSE 4.5%, Nifty 8.6%, OMXC 1.8%, PSE 1.4%, PSI 2.1%, SA40 5.3%, Sensex 8.8%, IGPA 2.5%, XMJ 1.8%, NXJ 2.4%, XSO 1.6% and BIST rose 6.7%.

---

The Week’s Larger Decliners

The group of largest decliners for the week included:

Australian Coking Coal (2.3%), Richards Bay Coal (4.7%), Rotterdam Coal (9.3%), Bloomberg Commodity Index (4.6%), Brent Crude (13.3%), Cocoa (5.5%), WTI Crude (12.8%), EHR (1.4%), Palm Oil (9%), Hogs (9.1%), Copper (3,8%), Heating Oil (7.4%), JKM LNG (4.1%), Coffee (2.5%), Lumber (3.4%), Urea U.S. Gulf (3.5%), Gasoil (7.7%), Oats (2.8%), Soybeans (3.3%), Wheat (2%), Gasoline Crack (4.2%), Japanese Naphtha (12.7%), All World Developed ex USA (2.9%), DJ Transport (2.7%) IBB (1.8%), S&P SmallCap 600 (1.9%), Russell 2000 (2%), TAIEX (12.2%), Nasdaq Composite (3.4%), Kospi (11.7%), S&P MidCap 400 (1.7%), Nasdaq 100 (4.9%), Nikkei 225 (9.3%), OBX (4.3%), SET (3.5%), SOX (12.2%), S&P 500 (2.7%), STI (3.7%), TA35 (2.9%) and XBI fell 2.4%.

---

November 8, 2026
By Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au