Macro Extrmes (week ending July 24, 2026)

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Belgian, Danish, French, Dutch and other 10-year bond yields

Italian 2-year bond yield

German 2- & 5-year bond yields

U.S. 20-year government bond yield

TBT

British and U.S. 30-year bond yields

Lumber

Dutch TTF Gas

Wheat *

Soybeans

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Copper/Gold Ratio *

Indonesian, Korean and Japanese 10-year bond yields

5-year Japanese bond yield

U.S. 5 year minus 5-year breakeven inflation rate spread *

U.S. 10 year minus 10-year breakeven inflation rate spread *

U.S. Midwest Hot Rolled Coiled Steel *

NY Harbour Heating Oil Crack Spread

AUD/THB

COP/USD *

Chinese RMB

USD/IDR

KBW Banks Index *

Hungary’s BUX Index

Thailand’s SET Index *

And Poland’s WIG Index

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Japanese 2-year bond yield

U.S 3-month bill yield *

Singapore’s Strait Times *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

TLT

Lean Hogs

Cattle

Shanghai Composite Index *

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

CHF/AUD

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

None

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields rose, again.

Austrian, Belgian, Australian, Canadian and Spanish 10-year bond yields have risen for 4 weeks.

As have Aussie 2- and 3-year yields.

U.S. 5–7-year corporate bond yields are nearly overbought.

And Russian 10-year yields fell enough to see them leave overbought territory.

Equities were quieter.

KBW Bank Index and the DJ Transports fell and snapped a 4-week winning streak.

HSCEI, the Hang Seng, Thailand’s SET and Singapore’s Strait Times have risen for 4 weeks.

The Russell 2000, Vietnam’s VN Index and Australia’s Financials Index are in a 4-week losing streak.

South Korea’s KOSPI has fallen for 5 weeks, slumping 29% over that time.

And Russia’s MOEX rose noticeably and isn’t oversold and broke 9 consecutive weeks of losses.

Commodities prices were mixed, but mainly firmer.

Oils, Gases, Distillates, Coal, Silver, Corn and Soybeans were the notable gainers.

Hogs, Cocoa, Coffee and Oats were amongst the decliners.

Australian Coking Coal, Natural Gas, Tin, S&P GSCI Index and the CRB Index have fallen for 4 weeks.

Heating Oil, JKM LNY as priced in Yen, Gasoline, Corn & Gasoil are in 4-week winning streaks.

North European Hot Coiled Steel and Dutch TTF Gas have risen for 5 weeks.

The latter has soared 48% over that time.

Cattle prices have sunk for 5 weeks.

JKM LNG as priced in Yen has soared 30% in the past 3 weeks.

While Brent Crude has climbed 31% in the past 3 weeks.

Currencies were quiet.

The Aussie rose.

The AUD/EUR, AUD/INR, AUD/JPY and AUD/USD have risen for 4 weeks.

The Loonie was mixed.

The British Pound and Yen were weaker.

The former snapped winning streaks against the Euro and Yen.

The Yen is nearing oversold readings versus the Aussie and against the USD.

And the USD/KRW has fallen for 4 weeks.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Bloomberg Commodity Index 2.7%, Brent Crude 9.9%, WTI Crude 9.2%, Cotton 1.7%, Palm Oil 2.7%, Copper 1.5%, Heating Oil 4.3%, JKM LNG 4.8%, Lumber 3.1%, JKM LNG in Yen 11.3%, Newcastle Coal 3.3%, Nickel 2.4%, Orange Juice 2.6%, Gasoline 1.9%, S&P GSCI 4%, CRB 3.6%, Dutch TTF Gas 10.8%, Urea 3%, Gasoil 4.8%, Silver 4%, Gold in Euro 1.5%, Corn 4.4%, Soybeans 4.2%, CSI 300 2.7%, ATX 1.4%, BUX 1.8%, China A50 4%, Egypt 1.9%, HSCEI 1.7%, Hang Seng 1.6%, IBEX 1.9%, MOEX 10.6%, TAIEX 2.3%, OBX 2.6%, Stockholm 1.7%, Lisbon 1.6%, PX 2.7%, STI 1.4%, TA35 2.7% and the ASX Materials rose 1.7%.

The group of largest decliners for the week included; 

Cocoa (2.8%), Lean Hogs (12.4%), Arabica Coffee (2%), Natural Gas (1.4%), Oats (2.1%), KLSE (1.8%), KSE (2.7%), KOSPI (1.9%), Nasdaq 100 (1.6%), Nasdaq Composite (2.1%), Nifty (2.3%), Copenhagen (3.7%), PSE (1.9%), Sensex (2.7%), Vietnam (5.7%), XBI (2.5%) and the ASX Industrials fell 1.7%.

July 26, 2026

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au