Macro Extremes (week ending September 25, 2026

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Australian 3-year bond yield

Swiss, Czech and Norwegian 10-year government bond yields *

British 5-year bond yield

Japanese 30-year bond yield

TBT

U.S. 5-year bond yield minus U.S. 3-month bill yield

U.S. 10 year minus Australian 10-year bond yield spread

U.S. 10 year minus Eurozone 10-year bond yield spread

U.S. 10 year divided by Australian 10-year bond yield

Copper

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Japanese 2, 5 and 10-year bond yield *

Austrian and Spanish 10-year government bond yields

U.S. 30-year bond yield

Austria’s ATX equity index

Taiwan’s TAEIX equity index

And Poland’s WIG Index *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

U.S. 5–7-year corporate bond yields *

Belgian, Chilean, Danish, Finnish, French, Greek, Italian, Dutch and Portuguese 10-year government bond yields *

British 2-year bond yield

The U.S. and EU yield curves (except for the 30’s)

TBX

U.S. 3-month bill, 2, 3, 5, 7, 10 and 20-year bond yields

U.S. 5-year bond yield minus 5-year inflation breakeven rate spread *

U.S. 10-year bond yield minus 10-year inflation breakeven rate spread *

North American Hot Rolled Coiled Steel *

Gasoline *

Gasoil and its crack spread *

Rice *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Australian 10 year minus U.S. 10-year bond yield spread

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 2-year bond yield spread

Türkiye’s BIST Index *

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

TLT

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

IEF & IEI *

SHY *

U.S. 30 year minus U.S. 10-year bond yield spread *

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields were the news.

During the week, Australia’s 10 year minus 5-year bond yield spread touched a lower extreme.

Swiss and U.S. 10-year bond yields are in a 4-week winning streak, as is the U.S. 10 year minus U.S. inflation rate spread.

Japanese 5 year and the U.S. 10 year minus 10-year break even inflation rate has climbed for 5 weeks.

The rest of the U.S. yield curve and the U.S. 5 year minus U.S. inflation rate spread are in a 6-week winning streak.

U.S. 5–7-year bond yields have risen for 7 weeks.

Inversely, Brazilian 10-year yields have sunk for 7 weeks.

The German and Italian 2-year yield fell and broke 6 weeks of advance.

Belgian, Czech, Danish, Spanish, Finnish, French, Greek, Italian, Dutch Polish, Portuguese and Swedish 10-year yields have risen for 7 consecutive weeks as are German 5’s and U.S. 7’s.

The last time we saw such a 7-week bond yield winning streak was in August-September 2022.

The U.S. 30 minus 10-year yield spread and the IEI ETF have closed lower for the past 6 weeks.

While U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 5 year rose and bounced out from a negative quinella.

Equities were mixed with a weaker bias.

Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul, the South Africa 40, ASX 200ASX Materials and the ASX Industrials have fallen for the past 4 weeks.

The Dow Jones Transports and S&P Small Cap 600 have declined for 6 weeks.

The CSI 300, Nifty, Sensex and Nasdaq Transports are in 7-week losing streaks.

UAE’s DFM index has advanced for the past 5 weeks.

And Norway’s OBX fell to snap its 10-week winning streak.

Commodities prices have plenty of action.

Distillates, Gases, Copper, Oats, Silver and Gold were the notable gainers.

Coal, Cocoa, Cotton, Coffee, Lithium, Sugar and Rice were amongst the largest decliners.

Lean Hogs moved out of oversold territory.

North American steel prices rose for the 4^th straight week.

JKM LNG prices have fallen for 10% for past 2 weeks.

Lithium Carbonate, Palladium & Wheat have fallen for 4 weeks.

Arabica Coffee and Lithium Hydroxide have sunk for 5 weeks.

Naphtha crack spreads have closed lower for the 8^th consecutive weeks.

And Urea, Gasoline, Gasoil crack and Heating Oil crack fell and snapped their respective winning streaks.

Currencies were quiet, again.

The Aussie and Loonie were weaker, again.

The Yen was stronger.

NZD/AUD has fallen for 4 weeks.

Kiwi/Dollar is in a 5-week losing streak, as are CHF/USD and CLP/USD.

And the PHP/USD rose to snap a 6-week losing streak.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Rotterdam Coal 1.3%, Baltic Dry Index 1.7%, Cocoa 5.5%, Cotton 1.9%, Cattle 2.6%, Natural Gas 9.8%, Orange Juice 7.2%, Tin 1.4%, Oats 3.4%, Rice 6%, ATX 2.1%, IBB 2.6%, TAIEX 1.8%, Nasdaq Composite 2.1%, KOSPI 2.7%, Mexico 2.6%, NBI 1.6%, Nasdaq 100 3.3%, Nikkei 2.1%, SET 1.5%, WIG 1.4% and SOX rose 6.3%.  

The group of largest decliners for the week included; 

Brent Crude (1.5%), WTI Crude (3.8%), Palm Oil (4.6%), Heating Oil (7.9%), JKM LNG (6.2%), JKM LNG in Yen (2.6%), Palladium (3.3%), Platinum (1.6%), S&P GSCI (1.5%), Dutch TTF Gas (9.4%), Gasoil (3.2%), Silver (2.9%), Gold (2.1%), Wheat (1.5%), Heating Oil crack spread (4.2%), Gasoline (1.9%), Naphtha (6.5%), CSI 300 (1.5%), AEX (1.6%), KBW Banks (1.8%), IDX (3.1%), DJ Transports (2.5%), EGX (3.1%), FCATC (1.3%), Tadawul (1.7%0, KRE Regional Banks (1.7%), OBX (1.6%), Copenhagen (1.8%), Nasdaq Transports (1.5%), Vietnam (1.7%), BIST (2.9%) and ASX Small Caps fell 1.7%.

September 27, 2026

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au