Trying to hear what's not being said
June 26, 2025 Leave a comment
The Euro is trading at a rare pricing extreme (according to my metrics and work) compared to the U.S. Dollar, seen for the 7th time in 25 years.
Inversely, the U.S. Dollar is at a monumental low against the EUR.
Europeans should be buying American assets, should they think their capital is either welcomed or will be treated well there…….
June 26, 2025
rob@karriasset.com.au
January 23, 2025 Leave a comment
Here at the moments when Germany’s #DAX Index has registered a monthly overbought reading.
While there is more behind my analysis, this simple study suggests that those who allocate capital into #German equities might be dummkopf or perhaps foolish, if they haven’t got one foot out of the door.
January 23, 2025
rob@karriasset.com.au
December 11, 2024 Leave a comment
In real #currency news, the GBP/EUR looks like running up to the 1.2280 region, but its close enough as it approaches an interim extreme amidst a weak trend.
Time to sell British #Pounds and buy #Euro, in case you are buying an airplane from Airbus…..
Incidentally, the Euro’s weakness against the USD persists, even after it traded at an oversold extreme some 3 weeks ago. This downtrend is exhibiting strength.
December 11, 2024
rob@karriasset.com.au
October 18, 2022 Leave a comment
Who would’ve thought that Gas prices could go down, let alone halve.
Well, the Dutch TTF Gas price has as has the Japan Korea LNG Marker (JKM) price.
It may seem perverse that this can happen but not really to others.
Henry Hub Natural Gas has nearly halved from its $10 peak.
Well, its currently $6 and nearing that $5 call I made in this note;
Market forces tend to fix extreme moves in prices.
October 18, 2022
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
September 15, 2022 Leave a comment
I prefer ‘value’ (rather than growth) stocks being in distress because balance sheet analysis is an added and viable tool.
While there are surely holes in the argument that the ‘E’ (earnings) forecast may still be lowered, I think this market is in the general vicinity of favouring buyers, more so than ‘sellers’.
September 15, 2022
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
Graphic Source: Bloomberg | Jean-Charles GAND
August 23, 2022 Leave a comment
The pessimism in Europe is not unwarranted, however the stock market is discounting much.
Around February 26 – March 8, 2022, the DAX equity index triggered a ‘trifecta oversold’ buy signal which bodes well for the longer term investor.
Around the price of 13,200 (similar to today’s level), the DAX registered an Oversold RSI level below 30, traded 2.5 standard deviations below its weekly mean and was below its 200 week moving average.
August 23, 2022
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
October 13, 2021 Leave a comment
The main message of this report is China ‘channelling’ a macro, trade, political and digital decoupling with Europe.
This theme takes some thinking. Many thought China would find friends or solace amongst Europeans amidst a heated spat with the U.S.
Silk Road rhetoric aside, China is taking a binary road instead. Either they are embracing globalisation or nationalistic protectionism. The latter seems to be the current path.
“It is this blend of China’s conditional coupling, a vast state-aid apparatus and protectionism extended to national
champions, and Beijing’s new-found self-confidence in its non-convergence with Organisation for Economic Cooperation
and Development (OECD) norms and principles that is driving the current ‘crisis of interdependence’ with China.”
October 13, 2021
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
#china #oecd #decoupling
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