The Bitcoin herd is arriving again

Bitcoin is trading at $18,000 and now, I’m being asked for an opinion.

On October 9th, when Bitcoin was $11,000, I wrote a note about the rare extreme in its volatility reading which augured for a notable rally.

Another optimal time to buy Bitcoin was when it was oversold around the $5,000 mark in March 2020.

(see the ellipse’s and comments in the chart below)

Being attuned to these moments is one thing but having the conviction and acting decisively on a view or thesis is something else.

November 19, 2020

by Rob Zdravevski

Low Bitcoin volatility leads to a violent move

I am studying Bitcoin volatility and have found that the its 30 day historical volatility has fallen to its lowest level in my 10 years of data.

6 out of 7 times when its fallen to similar levels Bitcoin has rallied notably.

Last night, Bitcoin rose 3% or $300. It is currently trading at $10,878.

And Bitcoin’s correlation to the S&P 500 is ‘growing’.

The weekly chart below paints a clearer picture.

October 9, 2020
by Rob Zdravevski

Short Bitcoin Call

A quick note to followers – Making a call, Short Bitcoin at current price of $9,320.

Targets are $8,300, then $8,170 and $7,200

Will add to the short at $9,430.
Stop loss will be set at $9,600.

A break in AUDJPY below 0.7160, then 0.7130 aids the short thesis, which includes plenty of cross-asset correlations.

#bitcoin #btc #crypto #cryptocurrency

June 12, 2020
by Rob Zdravevski

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Bitcoin & SPX correlation

Doesn’t Bitcoin (the blue line) seem to have a leading correlation to the S&P 500 ?



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