British Gilt yields at extremes

My latest edition (written every Sunday) of Macro Extremes said, “In this weeks list, the British 10’s entered an overbought territory while the other 2, 3 and 5 year durations are nearly doing the same.”

And so during this current week we are now seeing the British government bond yields across 2, 3 and 5 year maturities trading at 2.5 standard deviations above their rolling weekly mean.

May 24, 2023

by Rob Zdravevski

Anticipating a Country Rotation

Last week I wrote about my two best Equity Index ideas.

Buy the U.K.’s FTSE 100 and Spain’s IBEX 35.

I wanted to attach some better charts showing the monumental extremes of an index being oversold, not on a daily or weekly terms, but on a Monthly basis.

Because we’re looking at them on a Monthly view, we’re not about to trade out this position next month.

When you’re a buyer of securities at such extremes, you’ve got to give yourself 10% of price movement. After all, in the case of the IBEX, I’m looking for a 45% rise over the next 2-3 years as the index means revert towards its 200 day moving average, which is currently 10,000.

October 7, 2020
by Rob Zdravevski

Cheaper UK equities coming

I am bullish on UK equities

Today, the UK’s FTSE 100 Index is trading at 6,189 while the

the British Pound (GBP) against the US Dollar is at 1.2260.

At this moment, I am anticipating lower prices in both.

However, I’m not interested in shorting anything but instead preparing to acquire some favoured UK stocks at cheaper prices.

So, I’m taking excess GBP, converting it to USD and waiting while the UK market becomes cheaper in GBP and USD terms.

Odds are increasing for a pullback to 5885 in the index which is 5% below current levels.

Failing that, I’d then look for a test of 5510.

30 June, 2020

by Rob Zdravevski


This is not personal advice. Seek your own advice.

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