Bitcoin doesn’t march to its own drum
June 12, 2025 Leave a comment
Ya know that Bitcoin’s USD price is close correlated to the S&P 500 Index….
and when it’s not, often the SPX rises against BTC’s decline.
June 12, 2025
rob@karriasset.com.au
Macro Extremes (week ending May 23, 2025)
May 25, 2025 Leave a comment
A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.
The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.
n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.
* denotes multiple week inclusion
Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
British 30 year government bond yield
U.S. 30 year government bond yield
Norwegian 10 year government bond yield
TBT & TBX
Platinum
MYR/USD
THB/USD
Overbought (RSI > 70)
U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 5 year bond yield spread *
U.S. 30 year minus U.S. 5 year bond yield spread
Gold in AUD and USD
GBP/USD
PHP/USD
And Spain’s IBEX index *
The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)
None
Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
None
Oversold (RSI < 30)
Indian 10 year government bond yield *
Lithium Carbonate *
Lithium Hydroxide *
USD/SEK
The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)
None
Notes & Ideas:
Most Government bond yields rose, again as did investment grade and high yield corporate bonds.
Australian and Euro bond yields along with British 2, 3 & 5 year yields fell.
IEF and TLT are in 4 week losing streaks.
Indian 10 year bond yields rose and broke their 7 weeks of decline.
Italian 2 year bond yields broke their 4 week rising streak.
U.S. 10 year yield minus U.S. 10 year inflation rate is nearly overbought
And U.S. 5, 7, 10, 20 and 30 year yields are in 4 week rising streaks along with the U.S. 5 year minus U.S. 3 month spread and the respective U.S. 5 year yield and U.S 10 year yield minus inflation rate.
Equities were mostly weaker.
Predictably, many of the winning streaks appearing in last weeks edition have come to an end.
The remaining winning streaks intact belong to the Jakarta Composite, HSCEI, Hang Seng and the IBEX, sitting at 6 weeks.
Spain’s IBEX remains the only index in overbought territory.
And the All World Developed (ex USA) index has risen for 6 of the last 7 weeks.
Commodities were mixed.
The largest winners were LNG, Copper, Orange Juice, Precious Metals & Grains.
The notable losers included Cocoa, Hogs, Urea, Robusta Coffee and Shipping Rates.
Platinum is overbought and Gold in AUD and USD returned to being so.
Newcastle and Richards Bay Coal rose and are no longer oversold.
Cattle and Urea left overbought territory.
Uranium broke its 5 week winning streak.
Corn rose and broke its 5 week losing streak.
Currencies were little more active.
The big news was the 2% decline in the U.S. (DXY) Dollar and it broke its 4 consecutive weeks of advance.
The Greenback feel more than 2% against the Won, Yen, Swiss and Swedish Krona.
USD/ZAR is in a 7 week falling streak.
The Aussie broke all streaks which appeared in last weeks edition. The AUD fell everywhere except vs the USD, where it rose 1.4%
The Swiss and Yen were firmer, mimicking the risk-off sentiment seen in equities.
The British Pound was stronger and has risen for 6 straight weeks against the EUR.
And the Loonie was mixed.
The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;
Rotterdam Coal 1.4%, All World Developed (ex USA) 1.7%, Cotton 1.9%, Copper 5.3%, JKM LNG 5%, Cattle 1.8%, LNG in Yen 4.1%, Newcastle Coal 4.3%, Orange Juice 8.8%, Palladium 4.6%, Platinum 9.9%, Dutch TTF Gas 3.7%, Silver in AUD 2.2%, Silver in USD 3.7%, Gold in AUD 3.3%, Gold in CAD 3.2%, Gold in CHF 2.8%, Gold in EUR 3%, Gold in Sterling 2.8%, Gold in USD 4.9%, Gold in ZAR 3.9%, Corn 3.6%, Oats 3.6%, Rice 2.8%, Wheat 3.3%, IDX 1.5% and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) rose 1.4%.
The group of largest decliners from the week included;
Baltic Dry Index (3.5%), Cocoa (10.4%), DXY (1.9%), Lean Hogs (2%), Tin (1.7%), Aluminium (1.7%), Gasoline (1.3%), Robusta Coffee (1.5%), Sugar (1.3%), Urea (3.2%), Gasoil (1.1%), AEX (1.5%), KBW Bank (4.1%), BUX (1.7%), CAC (1.9%), DJ Industrials (2.4%), DJ Transports (4.1%), MIB (2.9%), S&P SmallCap 600 (4.2%), Russell 2000 (3.5%), Nasdaq Composite (2.5%), KLSE (2.3%), KRE Regional Banks (4.8%), S&P MidCap 400 (3.6%), Nasdaq 100 (2.4%), Nikkei 225 (1.6%) and the OMX Stockholm fell 2.5%.
May 25, 2025
By Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
Macro Extremes (week ending April 25, 2025)
April 27, 2025 Leave a comment
A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.
The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.
n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.
* denotes multiple week inclusion
Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
Australian government 10 year bond yield minus the Aust. 2 year bond yield spread *
AUD/IDR *
AUD/ZAR *
CAD/USD *
JPY/USD
NZD/AUD *
NZD/USD *
PHP/USD *
THB/USD *
Overbought (RSI > 70)
U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 2 year bond yield spread *
U.S. 30 year minus U.S. 10 year bond yield spread *
Urea (U.S. Gulf) *
USD/IDR
Czechia’s PX Index
Chile’s IGPA and IPSA equity indices
The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)
U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 5 year bond yield spread *
Gold in AUD, CAD, EUR, GBP, USD and ZAR *
EUR/USD *
Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
Australian 3 & 5 year bond yields *
German and Italian 2 year bond yields *
South Korean 10 year bond yields *
Copper/Gold Ratio *
CAD/CHF *
USD/CAD *
USD/MXN *
USD/SGD
Oversold (RSI < 30)
Richards Bay Coal *
U.S. (DXY) Dollar Index
North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel
Lithium Carbonate *
Lithium Hydroxide *
Newcastle Coal *
Rubber *
USD/SEK *
Dow Jones Transports *
Nasdaq Transports *
And Thailand’s SET Index *
The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)
Australian 2 year government bond yield
Indian 10 year government bond yield *
Notes & Ideas:
Government bond yields were mixed.
The non-investment grade bond yields aren’t overbought anymore.
Chilean 2 year bond yields have fallen for 4 straight weeks.
Norwegian & Indian 10 year yields are in a 6 week declining streak.
Notably, Australian 3 and 5 year yields are oversold.
German 10’s have fallen for 6 straight weeks while German 2’s broke 6 weeks of declines.
The latter also reverted to a long term mean.
Chinese 10’s broke 4 week losing streak.
Polish 10 year yields rose and broke a 6 week losing streak.
Equities rose, everywhere.
Equities had a another stellar week.
As a result, this week several equity indices have left the oversold list.
Many indices are in 3 week rising streaks.
For example, the DAX has risen 9% in the past fortnight.
And as mentioned in last week edition, for now, continues to look like April 4th-7th may signal the lows for global equities.
Commodities were mainly higher, again.
The largest winners were Cocoa, Coffee, Oats, Tin, Hogs, Tin and Shipping Rates.
Gold fell (albeit slightly) across various currency pricing.
Gases, Orange Juice, Palladium, Rice and Wheat were counted amongst the few losers.
Natural Gas is in a 4 week losing streak.
U.S. Gulf Urea prices have risen for 4 straight weeks.
The Baltic Dry Index snapped it 5 straight weeks of decline.
Sugar broke its 4 week losing streak.
Gold as priced in ZAR ended its 6 weeks of advance.
And Gold in AUD 7 week winning streak also came to an end.
while Lithium Hydroxide has been oversold territory for 99 consecutive weeks.
Currencies were very active, again.
A few currency pairs have left the list this week.
Commensurate with the ‘risk-on’ environment, the Aussie rose while the Yen and Swissie fell.
The British Pound was stronger again.
The Loonie was mixed.
The Euro is overbought against the USD.
The USD/JPY is at oversold levels.
And the U.S. Dollar (DXY) Index barely rose to break its 5 consecutive weeks of decline and it did drag it out of oversold territory.
The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;
Aluminium 1.4%, Baltic Dry Index 8.8%, Cocoa 13.2%, Cotton 2.5%, Lean Hogs 3.2%, Copper 2.1%, U.S. Midwest HRC 3.4%, Coffee 7.3%, Cattle 2.1%, Tin 4.4%, Robusta Coffee 2.3%, Sugar 2.2%, Uranium 2.4%, Silver in USD 1.8%, Oats 5.2%, Palm Oil 2.1%, All World Developed ex USA 2.5%, AEX 2.4%, AEX 3.7%, KBW Banks 5.7%, BUX 6.8%, CAC 3.4%, DAX 4.9%, DJ Industrials 2.5%, Egypt 1.9%, MIB 3.8%, HSCEI 2.3%, Hang Seng 2.7%, IBEX 3.4%, BOVESPA 3.9%, IDX 3.9%, S&P SmallCap 600 3.7%, Russell 2000 4.1%, TAIEX 2.5%, Nasdaq Composite 6.7%, KRE Regional Banks 4.9%, KOSPI 2.5%, FTSE 250 1.9%, S&P MidCap 400 3.1%, Mexico 7%, Nasdaq Biotechs 4.1%, Nasdaq 100 6.4%, Nikkei 225 2.8%, Stockholm 3%, PSI 2.2%, SMI 2.4%, SOX 10.9%, S&P 500 4.6%, IPSA & IGPA 2.2%, STI 2.8%, TSX 2.1%, FTSE 100 1.7%, WIG 5.3%, ASX Financials 2.8%, ASX 200 2.8%, IBB Biotech ETF 4.2% and XBI Biotech ETF rose 5.7%.
The group of largest decliners from the week included;
WTI Crude Oil (1.6%), JKM LNG (6.7%), JKM LNG in Yen (5.7%), Newcastle Coal (1.8%), Natural Gas (9.5%), Orange Juice (12.9%), Palladium (2.5%), Dutch TTF Gas (9%), Rice (2.1%) and Wheat fell 3.1%.
April 27, 2025
By Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
Macro Extremes (week ending April 11, 2025)
April 13, 2025 Leave a comment
A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.
The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.
n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.
* denotes multiple week inclusion
Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
British 30 year government bond yield
Turkish 10 year government bond yield
U.S. 3 month bill yield
U.S. 10 year bond yield minus the U.S. inflation rate
SHY
AUD/ZAR
CAD/USD
JPY/USD
SEK/USD
USD/ZAR
Overbought (RSI > 70)
U.S. 30 year minus U.S. 10 year bond yield spread *
BofA BB High Yield Option Adjusted Spread
Urea (U.S. Gulf)
Gold in AUD, CAD, GBP and USD
The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)
Australian government 10 year bond yield minus the Aust. 2 year bond yield spread
Australian government 10 year bond yield minus the Aust. 5 year bond yield spread
BofA High Yield Index Effective Yield
U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 2 year bond yield spread
U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 5 year bond yield spread
Gold in ZAR *
CHF/AUD
CHF/USD
EUR/GBP
EUR/USD
USD/IDR
Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
Australian 2, 3, 5 & 10 year bond yields *
German and Italian 2 year bond yields *
British 2’s, 3’s & 5’s
Polish 10 year bond yields
Copper/Gold Ratio
Aluminium *
Brent and WTI Crude Oil *
Cotton *
JKM LNG in Yen
Nickel
Platinum
Gasoline
Shanghai Rebar
S&P GSCI
TSI China Iron Ore price
Gasoil
AUD/CAD
AUD/JPY
AUD/SGD
AUD/THB
CAD/CHF
GBP/JPY
Shanghai Composite
CSI 300
All World Developed – ex USA
Amsterdam’s AEX
KBW Bank Index
CAC
Indonesia’s IDX
KRE Regional Banks Index
KOSPI
Nikkei 225
Oslo
Helsinki
SENSEX
SMI
S&P 500
Strait Times
TSX
FTSE 100
ASX 200
ASX Materials
And ASX Small Caps
Oversold (RSI < 30)
Richards Bay Coal *
Lithium Carbonate *
Lithium Hydroxide *
Newcastle Coal *
Uranium *
Dow Jones Transports
And Thailand’s SET Index *
The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)
Indian 10 year government bond yield *
U.S. (DXY) Dollar Index
North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel
Rubber
AUD/EUR
CAD/CHF
USD/DKK
Nasdaq Transports
Biotech ETF’s
S&P Small Cap 600
Russell 2000
Malaysia’s KLSE
FTSE 250
Copenhagen
Stockholm
Notes & Ideas:
Government bond yields mostly rose.
Intra-week we saw many extremes visited, not many closed near.
Thus, various yield spreads left the list.
European 10’s have fallen for 4 straight weeks while Euro 2’s have done so for 5 weeks.
U.S. 3 month bill yields moved out of oversold territory for the first time in 9 months.
Austrian and Spanish 10’s broke their 4 week losing streak,
And the U.S. 30 year minus U.S. 10 year yield spread broke it 8 consecutive weeks of gains.
Equities broadly rebounded.
It was a tricky week to report on extremes based on figures at the close of the week, for many extremes were seen intra-week before reversing.
The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite rose and departed oversold land.
Chinese and Hong Kong stocks wore the losses this week as did some Western European indices.
The TAIEX and Singapore’s Strait Times Index both fell 8%, which is quite a comparison to the Nasdaq Composite’s 7% gain.
The DAX, Hang Seng, Stockholm and Helsinki have fallen for 5 weeks straight.
Copenhagen is in a 6 week losing streak.
The IBB Biotech ETF have fallen for 7 weeks.
DJ Transports, the FTSE 250 and the SOX broke their 7 consecutive weeks of decline.
The KRE Regionals Banks Index is nearly oversold.
Commodities were mixed.
Coal, Aluminium, Copper, Nickel, Orange Juice, Precious Metals and Grains rose.
Shipping Rates, Oil, Gases, Distillates, Tin and Sugar were amongst the largest losers.
Australian Coking Coal moved out of oversold territory as did Orange Juice.
The former has risen 5% over the past fortnight.
The Baltic Dry Index has fallen or 4 straight weeks while Aluminium broke its 4 week losing streak.
Coffee looks like turning lower.
Gold as priced in ZAR has risen for 5 weeks.
Gold in AUD is in a 6 week winning streak.
Tin tanked 13%, nearly erasing the past 5 weeks of gains.
while Lithium Hydroxide has been oversold territory for 97 consecutive weeks.
Currencies were very active, again.
The star of the show was the U.S. Dollar falling 3%.
Similar to equities, the end of week entrants in this list are only a fraction of the extremes seen intra-week.
The Aussie however rose towards the end of the week yet remains in the doldrums.
The Loonie was mixed and it has risen for 6 straight weeks against the USD.
The CHF/CAD is 16% below its 200 WMA.
The Swiss is strong.
The Kiwi is the highest against the AUD since March 2024.
And the Danish Krone is at a 3 year high vs the USD.
The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;
Australian Coking Coal 2.8%, Aluminium 4.1%, Rotterdam Coal 2.6%, Bloomberg Commodity Index 1.8%, Cotton 4%, Copper 2.8%, Nickel 2.2%, Orange Juice 23.1%, Platinum 3.3%, Silver in AUD 4.8%, Silver in USD 9.2%, Gold in AUD 2.3%, Gold in CAD 3.9%, Gold in GBP 5%, Gold in USD 6.6%, Gold in ZAR 6.8%, Corn 6.5%, Rice 3.2%, Soybean 6.7%, Wheat 5.1%, KBW Bank Index 4.1%, BUX 2.3%, China A50 2.2%, DJ Industrials 4.9%, DJ Transports 1.9%, Russell 2000 1.8%, Nasdaq Composite 7.3%, S&P MidCap 400 2.8%, Nasdaq 100 7.4%, SA40 6.1%, SOX 10.9%, S&P 500 5.7%, Nasdaq Transportations 2.8%, TSX 1.7%, WIG 2.3% and the ASX Small Caps rose 1.8%.
The group of largest decliners from the week included;
Baltic Dry Index (14.4%), Brent Crude (2.2%), DXY Index (3%), JKM LNG (2.9%), Arabica (2.9%), Lumber (3.1%), JKM LNG in Yen (14.8%), Lithium Carbonate (1.8%), Tin (19.8%), Natural Gas (8.1%), Gasoline (2.7%), Sugar (4.5%), Sugar #16 (7.1%), TSI Iron Ore (2.6%), Dutch TTF Gas (8.1%), Gasoil (2.9%), Shanghai Composite (3.1%), CSI 300 (2.9%), AEX (2.6%), CAC (2.3%), Egypt (2.8%), MIB (1.8%), HSCEI (7.4%), Hang Seng (8.5%), IDX (3.9%), TAEIX (8.3%), KLSE (3.3%), SMI (3.5%) and the Strait Times fell 8.2%.
April 13, 2025
By Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
Macro Extremes (week ending April 4, 2025)
April 6, 2025 Leave a comment
A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.
The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.
n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.
* denotes multiple week inclusion
Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
IEF, IEI & SHY ETF’s
Sugar #16
EUR/GBP
EUR/USD
NZD/AUD
PHP/USD
Overbought (RSI > 70)
Australian government 10 year bond yield minus the Aust. 2 year bond yield spread
BofA High Yield Index
Tin
Urea (U.S. Gulf)
Gold in CAD and USD
Pakistan’s KSE Index *
And Chile’s IGPA Indices *
The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)
BofA BB High Yield Option Adjusted Spread
U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 5 year bond yield spread
U.S. 30 year minus U.S. 10 year bond yield spread *
Gold in AUD and ZAR *
Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
Australian 2, 3, 5 & 10 year bond yields
German and Italian 2 year bond yields
New Zealand & Polish 10 year bond yields
U.S. 10 year break-even inflation rate
TBX
U.S. 3, 5, 7 and 10 year bond yields
U.S. 5 year bond yield minus the U.S. 5 year break-even inflation rate
U.S. 5 year bond yield minus the U.S. 3 month bill yield
U.S. 5 year bond yield minus U.S.inflation rate
U.S. 10 year bond yield minus the Australian 10 year bond yield
U.S. 10 year bond yield minus the U.S. 10 year break-even inflation rate
U.S. 10 year bond yield minus the U.S. 10 year inflation rate
Aluminium
Brent and WTI Crude Oil
Cotton
U.S. (DXY) Dollar Index
Iron Ore
Gasoline
S&P GSCI
USD/CHF
USD/DKK
USD/SEK
Amsterdam’s AEX
KBW Bank Index
Dow Jones Industrials
Taiwan’s TAEIX Index *
KRE Regional Banks Index
Nikkei 225
Toronto’s TSX
Vietnam
ASX Materials
And ASX Small Caps
Oversold (RSI < 30)
U.S. 3 month government bill yield *
U.S. 10 year bond yield minus the German 10 year bond yield spread
Australian Coking Coal *
Richards Bay Coal *
North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel *
Lithium Carbonate *
Lithium Hydroxide *
Newcastle Coal *
Orange Juice *
Uranium *
AUD/INR
AUD/USD
CAD/CHF
Indonesia’s IDX
Nasdaq Transports
And Thailand’s SET Index *
The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)
Indian 10 year government bond yield *
U.S. 2 year bond yield
AUD/CAD
AUD/EUR
AUD/CHF
AUD/SGD
AUD/JPY
AUD/GBP
Dow Jones Transports
S&P Small Cap 600
Russell 2000
FTSE 250
S&P MidCap 400
Nasdaq Biotech Index
Copenhagen
Stockholm
Nasdaq Composite
Philadelphia Semiconductor (SOX) Index
S&P 500
Nasdaq Transports
And the IBB and XBI Biotech ETF’s
Notes & Ideas:
Government bond yields fell.
Any yields which were overbought last week are no longer so.
In this week’s overbought category you’ll find term spreads and high yield bond indices appearing.
The oversold category is full of shorter duration yields, cross country yield spreads and real interest rate spreads.
Austrian and Spanish 10’s are in a 4 week losing streak,
As are Aussie 2, 3 and 5 year yields along with German 2’d and 5’s.
U.S. 2 year bond yield mean reverted.
The U.S. 30 year minus U.S. 10 year yield spread has risen for 8 consecutive weeks.
This includes the whole Japanese curve which tanked this week. Leveraged shorter’s most likely became bankrupt. The widow maker is back.
Equities were decisively weaker, again.
This week features a very longest of equity indices trading at oversold extremes.
There were also many indices which mean reverted.
For the 2nd week in a row, Chinese stocks weathered the storm.
The DAX, Hang Seng, Stockholm and Helsinki have fallen for 4 weeks straight.
Copenhagen is in a 5 week losing streak.
The Nasdaq Biotech have fallen for 6 weeks.
DJ Transports, the FTSE 250 and the SOX have also declined for 7 consecutive weeks.
The Nasdaq Composite has retreated for 6 of the past 7 weeks.
The S&P 500 has sunken for 6 of the past 7 weeks.
The S&P Small Cap 600, S&P MidCap 400 and the Russell 2000 have fallen 9 of the past 10 weeks.
The KRE Regionals Banks Index is back to the same price seen in July 2024.
Commodities were weaker.
The indices were mainly affected by the slump in oil prices.
Thus we see Crude and Gasoline at oversold extremes.
Some winners included Urea, Tin, Cocoa and Steel prices.
A couple of them made into overbought territory.
Coking Coal prices are working their way from being oversold for some time.
Orange Juice mean reverted.
Tin has risen 19% over the past 5 weeks.
Copper prices tanked.
Australian Coking Coal broke its 4 week losing streak.
Gold as priced in AUD have risen for 5 consecutive weeks.
while Lithium Hydroxide has been oversold territory for 96 consecutive weeks.
Currencies were woken from slumber and very active.
The simplest observation was risk was ‘off’.
That means the Aussie and Loonie were dumped and the Yen and Swiss were bought.
The world does this when its worried and risk averse.
The Australian Dollar fell 4% (or more) against every currency pair.
Perversely, the Loonie has risen for 5 straight weeks against the USD.
Both ‘risk’ currencies (AUD & CAD) rose against the Yen.
And the GBP/JPY broke its 5 week rising streak.
The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;
Australian Coking Coal 2%, Cocoa 5.8%, U.S. Hot Rolled Coiled Steel 4.7%, Tin 7.5%, Sugar #16 7.4%, Urea U.S. Gulf 6.1%, Urea Middle East 4.1%, Gold in AUD 2.5% and Gold in ZAR rose 2.1%.
The group of largest decliners from the week included;
Richards Bay Coal (3.4%), Aluminium (10.2.%), Bloomberg Commodity Index (5.8%), Baltic Dry Index (7.1%), Brent Crude (9.2%), WTI Crude Oil (10.6%), Cotton (5.3%), Copper (14.2%), Heating Oil (6.6%), Arabica Coffee (3.8%), Lumber (13%), Cattle (3.3%), JKM LNG in Yen (6.7%), Lithium Carbonate (6.7%), Lithium Hydroxide (5.7%), Newcastle Coal (8%), Natural Gas (5.6%), Nickel (10.2%), Orange Juice (4.4%), Palladium (7.8%), Platinum (8.2%), Gasoline (8.4%), Robusta Coffee (4.2%), S&P GSCI (6.8%), CRB Index (6%), Dutch TTF Gas (10.8%), Gasoil (8%), Silver in AUD (9.8%), Silver in USD (13.3%), Gold in CAD (2.2%), Gold in CHF (3.8%), Gold in EUR (2.7%), Gold in USD (1.5%), Oats (2.1%), Rice (3.3%), Soybeans (4.5%), All World Developed ex-USA (6.6%), AEX (7.3%), ATX (9.9%), KBW Bank Index (13.8%), BUX (9.2%), CAC (8.1%), ChinaA50 (5.1%), DAX (8.1%), DJ Industrials (7.8%), DJ Transports (9.8%), MIB (10.6%), HSCEI (2.2%), Hang Seng (2.5%), IBEX (6.7%), Bovespa (3.5%), IDX (7.3%), S&P SmallCap 600 (9%), Russell 2000 (9.6%), Nasdaq Composite (10%), KRE Regional Banks (12.7%), KOSPI (3.6%), FTSE 250 (7.6%), S&P MidCap 400 (9.1%), Mexico (3.2%), Nasdaq Biotech (9.8%), Nasdaq 100 (9.8%), Nikkei 225 (9%), NIFTY (2.6%), Oslo (7.8%), Copenhagen (10.9%), Helsinki (7.4%), Stockholm (10.1%), PX (7.9%), SA40 (8.9%), SENSEX (2.7%), SET (4.3%), SMI (9.3%), SOX (16%), IGPA (2.4%), S&P 500 (9.1%), IPSA (2.5%), STI (3.7%), Nasdaq Transports (9.8%), TSX (6.3%), FTSE 100 (7%), Vietnam (8.1%), WIG (9%), ASX Financials (2.8%), ASX 200 (3.9%), ASX Materials (7.1%), ASX Industrials (3.4%), ASX Smal Caps (6.4%), BIST (2.9%) and the XBI Biotech ETF fell 12.7%.
April 6, 2025
By Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
Macro Extremes (week ending March 28, 2025)
March 30, 2025 Leave a comment
A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.
The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.
n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.
* denotes multiple week inclusion
Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
Czech & Swedish 10 year government bond yields *
Copper/Gold Ratio *
Silver in AUD and USD
AUD/IDR
NZD/AUD *
Singapore’s Strait Times Index
Overbought (RSI > 70)
Japanese 2, 5 & 10 year government bond yields *
Gold in AUD, CAD, CHF, GBP, USD and ZAR *
Austria’s ATX *
Hungary’s BUX Index *
Italy’s MIB Index *
Spain’s IBEX
Pakistan’s KSE Index *
Chile’s IPSA and IGPA Indices *
And Poland’s WIG Index *
The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)
10 year Turkish government bond yield
U.S. 30 year minus U.S. 10 year bond yield spread *
Copper *
Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
Taiwan’s TAEIX Index
Philadelphia’s SOX Index
Oversold (RSI < 30)
U.S. 3 month government bill yield *
Australian Coking Coal *
Richards Bay Coal *
North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel *
Lithium Carbonate *
Lithium Hydroxide *
Newcastle Coal *
Orange Juice *
Uranium *
Nasdaq Transports
And Thailand’s SET Index *
The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)
Indian 10 year government bond yield *
Notes & Ideas:
Government bond yields were subdues and mixed.
The Australian 10 year minus Australian 2 year bond yield spread has risen for straight weeks.
And Norwegian 10’s are not far away from an all-time high.
Equities were mostly weaker.
Yet it seemed more bearish than it was.
For example the CSI 300, the Dow Jones Transports and the FTSE 100 only closed 0.1% lower from last week’s close.
Germany’s DAX Index and Czechia’s PX Index fell from overbought territory.
Dow Jones Transports, the S&P SmallCaps 600 Index, the Nasdaq Composite, Indonesia’s IDX 30 and the S&P 500 are not oversold this week.
Cairo has risen for 4 straight weeks while Chile’s IGPA and IPSA have risen for the past 5 weeks.
Copenhagen is in a 4 week losing streak.
The Nasdaq Biotech backed and filled a gap and has fallen for 5 weeks.
DJ Transports, the FTSE 250 and the SOX have fallen for 6 consecutive weeks.
The KSE broke a 6 week winning streak.
The KLSE broke its 5 consecutive weeks of decline.
And the ASX Financials have climbed 4.8% over the past fortnight.
Commodities were busy.
Crude, Distillates, Precious Metals, Tin & Nickel rose.
Aluminium, LNG, Coffee, Sugar, Corn, Wheat & Oats were the notable decliners.
The Copper/Gold Ratio remains overbought.
Cattle drops out from being overbought.
Australian Coking Coal is in a 4 week losing streak.
North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel is nearing the exits from oversold territory.
Gold as priced in AUD, USD and CAD has risen for 4 consecutive weeks.
Cocoa has fallen for 7 of the past 9 weeks although it did break its 5 week losing streak.
while Lithium Hydroxide has been oversold territory for 95 consecutive weeks.
Currencies were mostly uneventful, again.
Often a simmering in FX volatility leads to the same in equities.
The Aussie was quiet and it halted it 4 consecutive week slide against the Euro.
The Canadian Dollar rose slightly, again.
The Loonie has risen for straight weeks against the USD.
Both ‘risk’ currencies (AUD & CAD) rose against the Yen.
And the GBP/JPY has risen for 5 straight weeks.
The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;
Cocoa 3.6%, WTI Crude 1.6%, Cotton 2.5%, Newcastle Coal 2.5%, Natural Gas 1.9%, Nickel 1.9%, Palladium 2.4%, Gasoline 2.1%, Tin 5.7%, Silver in AUD 3.1%, Silver in USD 3.3%, Gold as priced in AUD, CAD, CHF and GBP rose 1.8%, Gold in USD 2%, Gold in ZAR 3.2%, BUX 1.6%, IDX 4%, BIST 6.8% and the ASX Financials rose 2.6%.
The group of largest decliners from the week included;
Aluminium (3.9%), Baltic Dry Index (2.5%), U.S. Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel (3.6%), JKM LNG (2.2%), Arabica Coffee (2.9%), JKM LNG in Yen (3.4%), Orange Juice (14.1%), Robusta Coffee (3.2%), Sugar (3.9%), Sugar #16 (2.6%), Dutch TTF Gas (4.5%), Corn (2.4%), Oats (8%), Wheat (5.4%), ATX (2%), KBW Bank Index (1.9%), CAC (1.6%), DAX (1.9%), Russell 2000 (1.7%), TAIEX (2.7%), Nasdaq Composite (2.6%), KRE Regional Banks (1.5%), KOSPI (3.2%), Nadsaq Biotechs (2.6%), Nasdaq 100 (2.4%), Nikkei 225 (1.5%), Copenhagen (2.7%), Helsinki (3.3%), Stockholm (3.3%), PSE (1.9%), SMI (1.8%), SOX (6%), S&P 500 (1.5%), TA35 (1.6%), Nasdaq Transports (1.6%) and the iShare Biotech ETF fell 2.5%.
March 30, 2025
By Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
Macro Extremes (week ending March 21, 2025)
March 23, 2025 Leave a comment
A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.
The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.
n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.
* denotes multiple week inclusion
Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
Swiss and Czech 10 year government bond yields *
Copper/Gold Ratio *
U.S. 30 year minus U.S. 10 year bond yield spread *
Cattle
EUR/USD
NZD/AUD
Overbought (RSI > 70)
Japanese 2, 5 & 10 year government bond yields *
Gold in AUD, CAD, CHF, GBP, USD and ZAR *
Austria’s ATX *
Hungary’s BUX Index *
Germany’s DAX Index *
Italy’s MIB Index *
Spain’s IBEX
Pakistan’s KSE Index *
Czech Republic’s PX Index *
Chile’s IPSA and IGPA Indices *
And Poland’s WIG Index *
The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)
10 year Turkish government bind yield
Copper *
Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
CAD/EUR
SEK/USD
Dow Jones Transports *
S&P SmallCaps 600 Index *
Nasdaq Composite *
Malaysia’s KLSE
Nasdaq 100 *
And the S&P 500
Oversold (RSI < 30)
U.S. 3 month government bill yield *
Australian Coking Coal *
Richards Bay Coal
North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel *
Lithium Carbonate *
Lithium Hydroxide *
Newcastle Coal *
Orange Juice *
Uranium *
Indonesia’s IDX 30
And Thailand’s SET Index
The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)
Indian 10 year government bond yield
Notes & Ideas:
Government bond yields fell.
The few yields that rose were British, Indonesian and Japanese.
Many of last weeks extreme entrants have left, including the high bond yields.
The U.S. 10 year minus German 10 year spread moved out of oversold territory.
And Norwegian 10’s are not far away from an all-time high.
Equities were stronger.
A host of last week’s oversold names no longer appear,
While many of the overbought names are repeat entrants and seem embedded.
Weakness was seen in Chinese, Hong Kong, Swedish and Indonesian markets.
The main Vietnamese index along with some Hong Kong indices left the overbought extremes.
The former broke its 8 week advance.
Thailand’s SET broke its 7 consecutive weeks of losses.
Brazil’s BOVESPA has risen 12% since appearing as oversold in a late December 2024 edition of this weekly publication.
Interestingly, it has climbed 7.6% in the past 3 weeks compared to the 5% decline seen in the Nasdaq and S&P 500 over that same time.
The Nasdaq Biotech Index is in a 4 week losing streak.
The Nasdaq Transports and the FTSE 250 have fallen for 5 straight weeks.
Germany’s DAX Index is overbought for 8 weeks.
The S&P SmallCap 600, MidCap 400 and Russell 2000, Amsterdam’s AEX, Philly’s SOX, Nasdaq Transports, the Nasdaq Composite, the ASX Industrials and the ASX 200 all broke their declining streaks ranging between 5 and 7 weeks.
India’s Nifty and Sensex had a good week.
And Chile’s IGPA and IPSA indices have climbed for 4 consecutive weeks.
Commodities while active, were slightly subdued when compared to the rate of change seem in past weeks.
Oil and distillates rose as did Coffee, Sugar and Cattle.
Tin and Silver fell from being overbought.
Aluminium, Cotton, Coal, Platinum and Natural Gas were amongst the largest decliners.
The Copper/Gold Ratio remains overbought.
Natural Gas prices have fallen 10% over the past fortnight.
Cocoa has fallen for 7 of the past 8 weeks and is in a 5 week losing streak.
Heating Oil and the Baltic Dry Index broke its 4 weeks of declines.
Gasoline and Rubber ended their 5 week losing streaks.
U.S. Hot Rolled Coil Steel broke it 7 consecutive weeks of gains.
Orange Juice snapped its 12 weeks of consecutive losses.
Australian Coking Coal is at its lowest weekly close since November 2021.
while Lithium Hydroxide has now lingered in weekly oversold territory for 94 consecutive weeks.
Currencies were mostly quiet and uneventful.
Many of the currencies in last weeks list have departed.
The Aussie fell and has fallen for 4 consecutive weeks against the Euro.
The Loonie rose and did the U.S. Dollar.
The Euro mainly fell.
The British Pound was firmer.
The GBP/JPY has risen for 4 straight weeks.
The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;
Brent Crude 2.3%, WTI Crude 2%, Heating Oil 3.5%, Arabica Coffee 3.8%, Cattle 2%, JKM LNG in Yen 6.2%, Orange Juice 6.5% ,Gasoline 2.2%, Robusta Coffee 2.2%, Sugar 2.8%, Sugar #16 3.3%, Gasoil 3.6%, Uranium 1.6%, Gold in AUD 2.2%, Gold in EUR 1.9%, Oats 3.5%, KBW Bank Index 2.8%, BUX 2.4%, IBEX 2.7%, BOVESPA 2.6%, KSE 2.5%, KOSPI 3%, Nikkei 225 1.7%, NIFTY 4.3%, Oslo 2%, SA40 1.8%, SENSEX 4.2%, Strait Times 2.4%, TSX 1.7%, ASX Financials 2.2%, ASX 200 1.8%, ASX Industrials 2.4% and the ASX Small Caps rose 2.4%.
The group of largest decliners from the week included;
Aluminium (2.7%), Cotton (3.1%), Newcastle Coal (4.7%), Natural Gas (3%), Platinum (3.4%), Tin (2.5%), Silver in USD (2.3%), Rice (1.7%), Shanghai (1.6%), CSI 300 (2.3%), China A50 (3.2%), HSCEI (1.5%), IDX 30 (4.4%) and Stockholm fell 2%.
March 23, 2025
By Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
Macro Extremes (week ending March 7, 2025)
March 9, 2025 Leave a comment
A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.
The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.
n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.
* denotes multiple week inclusion
Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
Austrian, Swiss, Czech, German, Danish, Spanish, French, Greek, Italian, Dutch, Portuguese and Swedish 10 year government bond yields
German 5 year government bond yields
IEI
Copper/Gold Ratio
U.S. 30 year minus U.S. 10 year bond yield spread
Lumber
CHF/AUD
CHF/CAD
JPY/AUD *
JPY/CAD *
PHP/USD
SEK/USD
Vietnam’s equity index
Overbought (RSI > 70)
Japanese 2 & 5 year government bond yields *
Arabica Coffee
Gold in AUD, CAD and ZAR *
Hungary’s BUX Index *
Germany’s DAX Index *
Italy’s MIB Index
Spain’s IBEX Index *
Pakistan’s KSE Index
Czech Republic’s PX Index *
Switzerland’s SMI Index *
Chile’s IPSA and IGPA Indices *
And Singapore’s Strait Times
The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)
Japanese 10 year government bond yield
Austria’s ATX *
HSCEI Index *
Hang Seng Index *
Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
TBX *
U.S. 2 year and 5 year government bond yields
Australian 3 year and 5 year government bond yields
Canadian and Finnish 10 year government bond yields
U.S. 5 year government bond yield minus U.S. inflation rate
U.S. 5 year government bond yield minus U.S. 5 year breakeven inflation rate
U.S. 10 year government bond yield minus U.S. 10 year inflation rate
Cotton
Lean Hogs
JKM LNG priced in Yen
AUD/EUR
AUD/GBP
AUD/JPY
CAD/CHF
S&P SmallCaps 600 Index
Russell 2000
Nasdaq Composite
S&P MidCap 400
Nasdaq 100
Philadelphia SOX Index *
S&P 500
And the Nasdaq Transportation Index
Oversold (RSI < 30)
U.S. 3 month government bill yield *
Australian Coking Coal *
North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel *
Lithium Carbonate *
Lithium Hydroxide *
Newcastle Coal *
Orange Juice *
Uranium *
And Thailand’s SET Index *
The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)
U.S. 10 year government bond yield minus German 10 year bond yield spread
Jakarta Composite Index
Notes & Ideas:
Government bond yields rose.
except for Belgian and Brazil’s bond yields.
Brazilian 10’s aren’t overbought anymore
U.S. 7’s & 10’s broke their 7 week falling streak.
The U.S. 10 year and 5 year real interest rate remains in extreme territory.
Swiss yields rose further following last weeks bullish reversal.
Equities were mixed.
Asian markets were stronger as was Germany and Central Europe.
A bunch of European and Asian indices appear in the overbought category.
U.S. indices were amongst the weakest and dragged many others lower.
This week sees a range of American indices at oversold extremes.
The notable winners and losers for the week are listed at the end of this note.
Italy’s MIB broke its 5 week winning streak.
Germany’s DAX Index is overbought for 6 weeks.
Thailand’s SET has fallen for 6 consecutive weeks.
Vietnam’s main index has risen for 7 weeks.
Spain’s IBEX broke its 10 straight weeks of advance.
The S&P SmallCap 600, MidCap 400 and Russell 2000 have declined for 6 consecutive weeks.
The Hang Seng and the HSCEI were registering overbought quinella prices.
And Switzerland’s SMI has climbed for the past 4 weeks and 10 of the past 11 weeks.
Commodity prices were better than the past couple weeks.
Crude Oil and related products, Cocoa, Urea and Lithium were amongst the losers. i
Coffee, Cattle, Coal, Natural Gas, Nickel, Palladium and Silver were the notable advancers for the week.
The Baltic Dry Index has soared 63% over the past 3 weeks.
Cocoa has fallen for 5 of the past 6 weeks.
Gasoline and Rubber are in 4 week losing streaks.
Urea and Richards Bay Coal isn’t overbought anymore
Orange Juice declines further, extends its losing streak to 11 weeks
U.S. Hot Rolled Coil Steel has climbed for 6 weeks.
Platinum broke its 4 week losing streak.
Cattle rallied 5% and broke its 5 week losing streak.
Brent Crude and WTI Crude have fallen for 7 straight weeks.
Tin prices have soared 16% over the past 5 weeks.
while Lithium Hydroxide has now lingered in weekly oversold territory for 92 consecutive weeks.
Currencies saw much action.
The DXY (USD) Index fell 3.4%.
The Aussie was weaker with a host of pairs at extremes.
The Aussie has fallen for 4 weeks against the British Pound.
The Canadian Dollar was weaker.
The Loonie and the Swiss appear in this weeks list,
As does the Yen.
Risk has been off and we’ve been buying Yen and Swissie.
The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;
Richards Bay Coal 1.7%, Aluminium 3.9%, Rotterdam Coal 4.3%, Bloomberg Commodity Index 2%, Baltic Dry Index 13.9%, Lean Hogs 4.4%, Copper 3.6%, Coffee 3%, Cattle 4%, Tin 4.1%, Newcastle Coal 6%, Natural Gas 14.7%, Nickel 6.7%, Palladium 4.8%, Platinum 3.1%, Silver in AUD 2.8%, Silver in USD 4.4%, Gold in USD 1.8%, Shanghai Composite 1.6%, All Developed World ex USA 2.5%, PSE 3.7%, PX 2.9%, SA40 3.4%, Vietnam 1.6%, WIG 1.8%, BIST 8.8% and Jakarta Composite rose 5.8%.
The group of largest decliners from the week included;
Australian Coking Coal (1.9%), Brent Crude (3.7%), Cocoa (9.1%), WTI Crude Oil (3.9%), Heating Oil (4.3%), JKM LNG in Yen (14.3%), Lithium Carbonate (4.7%), Lithium Hydroxide (1.7%), Gasoline (5.1%), Dutch TTF Gas (9.8%), Urea U.S. Gulf (3%), Gasoil (2.8%), Uranium (1.6%), Gold in EUR (2.5%), KBW Banking Index (8.8%), DJ Industrials (2.3%), DJ Transports (2.4%), S&P SmallCap 600 (3.6%), Russell 2000 (4.1%), TAIEX (2.1%), Nasdaq Composite (3.5%), KLSE (7.1%), KRE Regional Banks (7.1%), S&P MidCap 400 (3.5%), Nasdaq 100 (3.3%), Copenhagen (2.1%), SOX (2.9%), S&P 500 (3.1%), Nasdaq Transports (3.1%), TSX (2.5%), FTSE 100 (1.5%), ASX Financials (4.6%), ASX 200 (2.7%), ASX Industrials (1.8%) and the ASX Small Caps fell 2.6%.
March 9, 2025
By Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
Macro Extremes (week ending February 28, 2025)
March 2, 2025 Leave a comment
A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.
The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.
n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.
* denotes multiple week inclusion
Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
Swiss 10 year government bond yields *
JPY/AUD
JPY/CAD
HSCEI Index *
Hang Seng *
Tin
Overbought (RSI > 70)
Japanese 2, 5 & 10 year government bond yields *
Brazilian 10 year government bond yield *
Urea (U.S. Gulf price) *
Gold in AUD, CAD and ZAR *
Hungary’s BUX Index *
Germany’s DAX Index
Czech Republic’s PX Index *
Switzerland’s SMI Index
And Chile’s IPSA and IGPA Indices *
The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)
Austria’s ATX *
Spain’s IBEX Index *
Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
TBX
U.S. 5 year government bond yield minus U.S. 5 year breakeven inflation rate
U.S. 5 year government bond yield minus U.S. inflation rate
U.S. 10 year government bond yield minus U.S. 10 year breakeven inflation rate
U.S. 5 year government bond yield minus U.S. 10 year inflation rate
Philadelphia SOX Index
Nikkei 225 Index
Oversold (RSI < 30)
U.S. 3 month government bill yield *
INR/USD
Australian Coking Coal *
Richards Bay Coal *
North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel *
Lithium Carbonate *
Lithium Hydroxide *
Newcastle Coal *
Uranium *
And Thailand’s SET Index *
The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)
Orange Juice *
Jakarta Composite Index
Notes & Ideas:
Government bond yields fell….
except for Belgian, Finland and Brazil’s bond yields.
U.S. 7’s & 10’s have fallen for 7 weeks.
As a result, the IEF bond ETF has risen for 7 weeks.
The U.S. 10 year and 5 year real interest rate entered extreme territory this week.
We saw a large fall and reversal in Swiss yields.
While the Japanese 10 year bond yield has climbed for 8 weeks.
Equities were notably weaker.
Italy’s MIB have risen for 5 consecutive weeks.
Vietnam’s main index has risen for 6 weeks.
Spain’s IBEX have extended its advance to 10 weeks straight.
Inversely, the S&P SmallCap 600, MidCap 400 and Russell 2000 have declined for the 5 consecutive weeks.
The Hang Seng and the HSCEI were registering overbought quinella prices early in the week, before they fell and broke their 6 consecutive weeks of advance.
Singapore’s Strait Times, South Africa’s SA40 and Helsinki’s 25 Index snapped their respective 4, 5 and 6 week winning streaks.
While Hungary’s BUX, Poland’s WIG broke their 9 week wining streaks.
The SENSEX and NIFTY are nearing extremes.
And Switzerland’s SMI has climbed for 9 of the past 10 weeks.
Commodity prices had a terrible week, across the board.
Tin, Corn, Wheat, Coffee, Sugar and Palladium were amongst the heaviest decliners.
Shipping Rates, Lumber, Oasis were the few to rise for the week.
In fact, the Baltic Dry Index has soared 57% over the past 4 weeks, after registering an oversold reading.
Orange Juice tanks further, extends its losing streak to 10 weeks
U.S. Hot Rolled Coil Steel has climbed for 5 weeks.
Sugar broke its 5 week winning streak, erasing the past 3 weeks of gains.
Platinum has fallen for 4 straight weeks.
Silver in USD broke its 5 straight weeks of advance.
Gold in USD snapped its 8 week winning streak.
Australian Coking Coal prices rose slightly, snapping its 7 straight weeks of losses.
Cattle is in a 5 week losing streak, while Uranium snapped its 4 weeks of decline.
Brent Crude and WTI Crude have fallen for 6 straight weeks.
Lean Hogs broke their 4 consecutive weeks of advance,
Wheat slumped and broke its 6 week winning streak.
Tin prices have soared 12% over the past weeks.
while Lithium Hydroxide has now lingered in weekly oversold territory for 91 consecutive weeks.
Currencies also saw much action.
The Yen and Swiss rose, confirming the ‘risk-off’ type of week.
The Aussie fell and did the Loonie.
In turn, we see the Yen in overbought territory this week against these ‘risk’ currencies.
The British Pound rose
And the U.S. Dollar rose against everyone.
The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;
Baltic Dry Index 25.3%, Lumber 2%, JKM LNG in Yen 2.9%, Urea, U.S. Gulf price 1.7%, Oats 1.5%, ATX 2.5% and IBEX rose 3.1%.
The group of largest decliners from the week included;
Aluminium (3.4%), Bloomberg Commodity Index (3.8%), Cotton (3.1%), Lean Hogs (4.6%), Heating Oil (2.7%), JKM LNG (2.3%), Arabica Coffee 4.2%, Lithium Hydroxide (1.9%), Tin (7.3%), Newcastle Coal (4.1%), Natural Gas (8.5%), Orange Juice (2.7%), Palladium (9.2%), Platinum (5%), Robusta Coffee (6.6%), Sugar (9.7%), Sugar #16 (4.5%), S&P GSCI (2.8%), CRB Index (3%), Dutch TTF Gas (6.5%), Brent Crude (1.6%), Gasoil (3.7%), Urea Middle East (4.2%), Silver in AUD (1.8%), Silver in USD (4%), Gold in USD (2.7%), Gold in GBP (2.2%), Gold in EUR (1.9%), Gold in CHF (2.1%), Corn (7.5%), Rice (1.6%), Soybeans (3%), Wheat (8%), Shanghai Composite (1.7%), AEX (1.7%), China A50 (1.6%), SOX (7.2%), HSECI (2.9%), Hang Seng (2.3%), BOVESPA (3.4%), Jakarta Composite (7.8%), Russell 2000 (1.5%0, TAIEX (2.9%), Nasdaq Composite (3.5%), KOSPI (4.6%), Mexico (2.6%), Nasdaq Biotech (1.6%), Nasdaq 100 (3.4%), Nikkei 225 (4.2%), NIFTY (2.9%), SA40 (3.5%), SENSEX (2.8%), SET (3.4%), TA35 (1.8%), FTSE 100 (1.7%), ASX 200 (1.5%), ASX Materials (5.3%) and the ASX SmallCaps fell 2.5%.
March 2, 2025
By Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
Macro Extremes (week ending January 31, 2025)
February 2, 2025 Leave a comment
A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.
The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.
n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.
* denotes multiple week inclusion
Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
Cattle *
Corn *
Gold in USD
Spain’s IBEX Index
Sweden’s OMX Stockholm Index *
Switzerland’s SMI Index
Poland’s WIG Index
Australia’s ASX 200 Index
And the U.K.’s FTSE 100 *
Overbought (RSI > 70)
Japanese 2, 5 and 10 year government bond yields *
Arabica Coffee *
Robusta Coffee
Urea (U.S. Gulf price) *
Gold as priced in AUD, CHF, EUR, GBP and ZAR.
Hungary’s BUX Index *
Pakistan’s KSE Index *
Czech Republic’s PX Index *
Singapore’s Strait Times Index
Israel’s TA35 *
Chile’s IGPA Index *
And Australia’s ASX Industrials Index
The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)
Germany’s DAX Index *
Austria’s ATX *
Chile’s IPSA Index *
Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
Lumber
Oversold (RSI < 30)
Chinese 10 year government bond yields *
U.S. 3 month government bill yield *
Australian Coking Coal *
Baltic Dry Index
Newcastle Coal *
North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel *
U.S. Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel *
Lithium Carbonate *
Lithium Hydroxide *
AUD/THB *
CAD/USD
INR/USD *
And Philippine’s PSE Index
The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)
None
Notes & Ideas:
Government bond yields fell.
The only bond yields appearing in this week’s list is the overbought Japanese curve and the oversold Chinese 10’s.
Chile’s 2 year bond yields are in a 4 week rising streak,
As are the Japanese 2’s and 10’s.
Equities were mixed with an upward bias.
The CAC, DAX and ASX 200 are in 4 week winning streaks.
The first 2 have risen 9% in those 4 weeks.
Austria’s, Hungary’s and Switzerland’s main equity index have risen for 6 weeks straight.
The SMI climbed 10% over that time.
Chile’s IPSA is also in a 4 week rising streak and has risen for 10 of the past 12 weeks.
The KOSPI broke its 5 week winning streak.
Philippines PSE has fallen for 4 weeks.
The PSE and the Philadelphia SOX Index tanked over 6%.
The Czech Republic’s PX Index broke its 8 consecutive weeks of advance.
Hong Kong and Chinese markets were closed for most of the week.
And the DAX is at an all-time high.
Commodity prices were mixed with a lower bias.
Arabica Coffee has risen for 4 straight weeks.
Palladium has climbed for 4 of the past 5 weeks.
Orange Juice is in a 6 week losing streak.
Coal, Gases, Wheat, Sugar and Precious Metals gained.
Oil, Cocoa, Aluminium, Oats, Rice and Henry Hub Natural Gas fell.
Corn has risen for 7 of the past 9 weeks and features prominently as an ‘overbought extreme’.
Cattle prices are at their highest since November 2014.
The Baltic Dry Index has fallen 59% over the past 2 months.
Coal prices remain in oversold territory.
Gold as priced in CAD has risen for 9 consecutive weeks,
Gold in USD has risen for 5 weeks while Gold in CHF is in a 6 week winning streak.
Sugar has fallen for 13 of the past 17 weeks.
U.S. Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel broke its 4 week losing streak but has spent 36 weeks being oversold,
while Lithium Hydroxide has now lingered in weekly oversold territory for 87 consecutive weeks.
Currencies saw some action.
The DXY (USD) Index rose 1%
The AUD fell.
The Brazilian Real has risen for 5 straight weeks versus the USD.
The Loonie is at its lowest since March ’20 and Jan ;16.
The Euro was weaker.
While the Yen rallied.
The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;
Richards Bay Coal 2.3%, Rotterdam Coal 2.5%, Leans Hog 2.3%, JKM LNG 2.3%, Coffee 8.7%, Lumber 4.7%, Palladium 6.2%, Platinum 7.4%, Robusta Coffee 3.1%, Sugar 1.7%, Sugar #16 4.2%, Dutch TTF Gas 6.9%, Silver in AUD 4.1%, Silver in USD 2.8%, Gold in AUD 2.7%, Gold in CAD 2.3%, Gold in EUR 2.3%, Gold in GBP 1.8%, Gold in ZAR 2.5%, Wheat 2.9%, AEX 2.3%, IBEX 3.2%, BOVESPA 3%, KRE Regional Banks 1.3%, FTSE 2.1%, NIFTY 2.1%, OBX 1.8%, SA40 2.4%, SENSEX 1.7%, SMI 2.5%, IGPA 2%, FTSE 100 2%, WIG 1.8%, ASX Financials 1.6% and the ASX 200 rose 1.5%.
The group of largest decliners from the week included;
Aluminium (2.6%), Baltic Dry Index (5.5%), Brent Crude Oil (2.5%), Cocoa (5.2%), WTI Crude Oil (2.9%), Cotton (2.6%), Heating Oil (2.1%), Natural Gas (17.2%), Nickel (3.1%), S&P GSCI (1.6%), CRB Index (1.6%), Gasoil (1.5%), Oats (3.5%), Rice (5.7%), DJ Transports (1.8%), Russell 2000 (1%), Nasdaq Composite (1.6%), S&P MidCap 400 (1.1%), PSE (6.9%), SET (2.9%), SOX (6.1%), S&P 500 (1%) and the Tel Aviv 35 fell 2.7%.
February 2, 2025
By Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
rob zdravevski's blog 