Macro Extremes (week ending October 2nd, 2026)

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets, on a weekly timeframe, either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below their rolling mean.

NB: Pricing of commodity futures contracts considers only the immediate front-month contract.

* denotes multiple-week inclusion.

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Extremes Above the Mean

At least 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean

U.S. High Yield Bond Option Index
Norwegian 10-Year Government Bond Yields *
JPY/AUD
USD/CHF
USD/DKK
USD/MXN
USD/SEK

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Overbought

RSI > 70

Japanese 2-, 5- and 10-Year Bond Yields *
Indian, Italian and Portuguese 10-Year Government Bond Yields *
U.S. 3-Month Bill and 2-Year Bond Yield
U.S. 5-Year Bond Yield minus 5-Year Inflation Breakeven Rate Spread *
U.S. 5-Year Bond Yield minus U.S. Inflation Rate
North American Hot Rolled Coiled Steel *
Sugar
Rice *
Taiwan’s TAIEX Equity Index *
Poland’s WIG Index *

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The Overbought Quinella

Both Overbought and >2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean

U.S. 5–7-Year Corporate Bond Yields *
U.S. BB High Yield
Belgian, Chilean, Spanish, French & Greek 10-Year Government Bond Yields *
TBT & TBX
U.S. 3-, 5-, 7-, 10-, 20- & 30-Year Bond Yields *
U.S. 5-Year Bond minus 3-Month Bill Yield Spread
U.S. 10-Year minus Australian 10-Year Bond Yield Spread *
U.S. 10-Year minus Eurozone 10-Year Bond Yield Spread
U.S. 10-Year Bond Yield minus 10-Year Inflation Breakeven Rate Spread *
U.S. 10-Year divided by Australian 10-Year Bond Yield
U.S. 30-Year Mortgage Rate

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Extremes Below the Mean

At least 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean

EUR/JPY
EUR/USD
CAC 40 Index
Russell 2000
KLSE
S&P MidCap 400
PSE Equity Index
Türkiye’s BIST Index *

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Oversold

RSI < 30

Lean Hogs
China CFR Iron Ore
SENSEX Equity Index

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The Oversold Quinella

Both Oversold and >2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean

Australian 10-Year minus U.S. 10-Year Bond Yield Spread
IEF & IEI *
SHY & TLT *
CLP/USD
NIFTY Equity Index

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Notes & Ideas

Government Bond Yields Mostly Fell

Various 10-year bond yields left overbought territory, and some streaks came to an end.

While others remain, a number of streaks have developed which help identify where the more interesting extremes are emerging.

Chilean 10-year bond yields have climbed for 4 weeks.

U.S. 10-year yields have closed higher for the past 5 weeks.

The U.S. 10-year minus 10-year inflation breakeven rate spread is in a 6-week winning streak.

Indian 10-year yields have risen for 7 weeks.

U.S. 5–7-year bond yields have risen for 8 weeks.

Belgian, Spanish, French, Greek, Italian and Portuguese 10-year yields have risen for 8 consecutive weeks, as have U.S. 5s and 7s.

The last time we saw an 8-week bond-yield winning streak was in August–September 2022.

The U.S. 30-year minus 10-year yield spread rose and snapped a 6-week losing streak.

SHY ETF has fallen for 6 weeks, while the IEI ETF has closed lower for the past 7 weeks.

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Equities Were Weaker

The KBW Banks Index, KRE Regional Banks, Russell 2000, IDX, PSE, Hang Seng and HSCEI are in 4-week losing streaks.

Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul, the South Africa 40, ASX 200, ASX Materials and ASX Industrials have fallen for the past 5 weeks.

Transports and the S&P SmallCap 600 rose and broke 6-week losing streaks.

The CSI 300, China A50 and SENSEX are in 8-week losing streaks.

ASX Industrials rose and snapped 4 consecutive weeks of losses.

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Commodity Prices Were Mostly Weaker

Thermal Coal, Steel, Coffee, Sugar and Gasoline were the notable gainers.

Aluminium, Copper, Lithium, Precious Metals, Corn and Nickel were amongst the largest decliners.

Lean Hogs returned to oversold territory.

Lithium Carbonate, Palladium and Wheat have fallen for 5 weeks.

Arabica Coffee rose and snapped a 5-week losing streak.

Lithium Hydroxide has sunk for 6 weeks.

Naphtha crack spreads rose and snapped 8 consecutive weeks of decline.

Gasoil has fallen 10% in the past two weeks.

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Currencies Were a Little More Active

The Aussie and Loonie eased, again.

The Euro was notably weaker.

The Yen and British Pound were stronger.

AUD/USD, CAD/USD, EUR/USD and THB/USD have declined for 4 weeks.

NZD/USD, CHF/USD and CLP/USD have fallen for 6 weeks.

The latter registered its first oversold reading in three years.

The USD has risen 4 weeks in a row against the DKK, SEK and ZAR.

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The Week’s Larger Advancers

The larger advancers over the past week comprised Richards Bay Coal +3.6%, Rotterdam Coal +4.6%, Lean Hogs +1.6%, HRC +3.1%, Arabica Coffee +3.6%, Newcastle Coal +2.8%, Gasoline +3.9%, Robusta Coffee +3.6%, Sugar +13.9%, Dutch TTF Gas +4.0%, Naphtha Crack Spread +15.3%, Bovespa +4.7%, Nikkei 225 +2.9% and the Philly SOX Index +3.7%.

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The Week’s Larger Decliners

The group of largest decliners for the week included Australian Coking Coal −5.6%, Aluminium −7.2%, Bloomberg Commodity Index −2.0%, Baltic Dry Index −8.1%, Brent Crude −2.0%, WTI Crude −1.4%, Cotton −4.6%, Palm Oil −2.9%, Copper −3.2%, Lumber −2.1%, JKM in Yen −3.1%, LTC −6.9%, LTH −10.4%, Natural Gas −5.0%, Nickel −4.5%, Orange Juice −10.5%, Palladium −8.1%, Platinum −4.7%, CFR China Iron Ore −5.9%, Urea −4.4%, Gasoil −7.3%, Silver −6.1%, Gold −2.1%, Corn −5.8%, Oats −2.9%, Soybean −3.1%, Wheat −2.9%, Gasoil Crack −20.1%, Heating Oil Crack −14.0%, Gasoline Crack −6.3%, CSI 300 −1.8%, All World Developed ex USA −1.6%, ATX −3.3%, KBW Banks −2.8%, BUX −7.4%, CAC −2.2%, China A50 −3.0%, IDX −3.3%, DJ Transports −1.3%, FCATC −4.4%, Tadawul −1.7%, MIB −2.7%, HSCEI −1.7%, IBB −2.1%, IBEX −3.1%, KLSE −2.4%, NBI −1.9%, NIFTY −3.1%, Helsinki −1.6%, PSE −3.4%, PSI −3.0%, PX −3.9%, SA40 −2.3%, SET −2.2%, SMI −2.0%, IGPA −2.9%, FTSE 100 −2.2%, Vietnam −2.7%, BIST −4.9% and Poland’s WIG −1.8%.

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October 4, 2026
By Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au