Stay the course – March 2026 newsletter

March 30, 2026 Leave a comment

It may seem obvious but we are near exhaustion in the streaks seen across a host of capital markets.

The following data and observances assists in quantifying this view.

A selection of equity indices are entering their 4th and 5th week of consecutive declines.
Streaks seldom extend to the 6th week.

An extract from my recent weekend’s edition of Macro Extremes, highlights;

https://robzdravevski.com/2026/03/29/macro-extremes-week-ending-march-27-2026/

“The Shanghai Composite, All World Developed ex USA, DAX, Hang Seng, IBB biotech, Indonesia’s IDX, FTSE 250, Nasdaq Biotech (NBI), OMX Stockholm, Philippines PSE and S&P Biotech (XBI) are in 4 week losing streaks.

The Dow Jones Industrials, Nasdaq Composite, Nasdaq 100, NIFTY, SENSEX, S&P 500 and ASX Financials have fallen for 5 weeks.”

And the following indices rose last week and snapped their 4 week losing streaks; Austria’s ATX, Russell 2000, S&P Small Cap 600, KRE Regional Banks, S&P MidCap 400, Copenhagen, S&P 600 and Nasdaq Transports.

For the bond market;
4 weeks of higher yields are seen in Australian, Belgian, Canadian, German, Danish, Spanish, Finnish, French, Greek, Japanese, Dutch, Kiwi, Polish, Portuguese, Swedish and American 10 year bonds.”

Amongst commodities;
“WTI Crude, CRB Index, Gasoil and Middle Eastern Urea have closed higher for 6 weeks straight.
Gasoline, Brent Crude, Heating Oil, JKM LNG snapped their 5-week streak of higher prices.”


Lastly, in the long running AAII Investor Sentiment Survey;

the latest series of weekly results sees the bearish column exceeding a reading of 46% for the past 3 weeks.

https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey




Over the past 36 years (since 1990), we have seen such qualifying clusters of bearishness on 24 occasions.
That equates to such an event accounting for 4% of the time.

16 of the 24 occurrences were contained to a period of 3 or 4 weeks only.

These and other Clusters also occurred around major equity stress, such as;

  • 1990 recession / Gulf War
  • 2002 post-dotcom washout
  • 2008 GFC (multiple clusters)
  • 2009 final lows
  • 2020 COVID shock
  • 2022 bear market
  • 2025–2026 (current regime stress)

These are not random occurrences as they align with systemic drawdowns or late-stage capitulation capturing;

  • forced selling
  • sentiment entrenchment
  • positioning exhaustion

In summary, these periods cluster around major equity lows or accumulation zones.

As written in past newsletters, 

“I don’t see any structural problems in the global equity market”.

In the next newsletter, I’ll share some views about themes and sectors that I find interesting.

You can subscribe to my newsletter by click the button on the latest newsletter

https://mailchi.mp/karriasset/stay-on-course-1

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Macro Extremes (week ending March 27, 2026)

March 29, 2026 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

10-year Austria, Belgian, Chilean, German, Danish, Spanish, Finnish, French, British, Norwegian, Kiwi and U.S. government bond yields.

2, 3, 5, 7 and 20-year U.S. government bond yields.

British 30-year bond yields

U.S. 5–7-year Investment Grade and High Yield yields

U.S. 10-year bond yield minus U.S. 10 year inflation breakeven rate

Cotton *

Sugar *

Oats *

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

2-year British and Japanese government bond yields.

Aussie and British 3-year government bond yields.

Australian and Japanese 5-year bond yields.

5 & 10-year Japanese bond yields.

Richards Bay Coal *

Rotterdam Coal *

Bloomberg Commodity Index *

Brent Crude Oil *

WTI Crude Oil *

JKM LNG in USD

Newcastle Coal *

S&P GSCI Index *

CRB Index *

Urea (U.S, Gulf and Middle East) *

AUD/INR *

OBX *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Australian, Chilean, German and Italian 2-year government bond yields.

5 year Australian and German bond yields

10-year Greek, Indonesian, Italian, Korean, Polish, Portuguese & Turkish government bond yields.

Heating Oil *

JKM LNG in Yen *

Gasoline *

Gasoil *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

IEF

IEI *

SHY *

U.S. 10-year minus U.S. 2-year bond yield spread *

U.S. 10-year minus 5-year bond yield spread

U.S. 30-year minus U.S. 10-year bond yield spread *

Lumber

PHP/USD

CSI 300

CAC Index *

DAX Index *

MIB

HSCEI

Hang Seng

Nasdaq Composite *

Nasdaq 100

SMI

S&P 500

ASX Industrials *

ASX Small Caps

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

Australian 10-year minus Aussie 2-year bond yield spread

Cocoa

NZD/AUD *

HKD/USD *

KRW/USD *

IDX Composite *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

INR/USD *

NIFTY *

SENSEX *

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields rose, again.

A few more 10-year government bond yields joined the overbought list.

4 weeks of higher yields are seen in Australian, Belgian, Canadian, German, Danish, Spanish, Finnish, French, Greek, Japanese, Dutch, Kiwi, Polish, Portuguese, Swedish and American 10 year bonds.

Chilean 10-year yields have climbed for 5 weeks.

The following also have 4 week streaks of higher yields; Aussie, German, Italian and U.S. 2’s, the U.S. 3 year, German and American 5 years along with U.S & British 30 years.

U.S. 5 and 10 years minus inflation spread yields have also increased for 4 weeks.

Meanwhile, British 3 and 5 year bond yields fell and snapped their 4 week rise.

And Chilean 2-year yields have risen for 8 consecutive weeks.

Equities were mainly lower, in a tale of some streaks being extended while others were broken.

Taiwan’s TAEIX, South Korea’s KOSPI and Israel’s TA 35 Index were the last to leave overbought land.

The Shanghai Composite, All World Developed ex USA, DAX, Hang Seng, IBB, Indonesia’s IDX, FTSE 250, NBI, Stockholm, PSE and XBI are in 4 week losing streaks.

The DJ Industrials, Nasdaq Composite, Nasdaq 100, NIFTY, SENSEX, S&P 500 and ASX Financials have fallen for 5 weeks.

China’s FCTAC has declined for 6 weeks.

Austria’s ATX, Russell 2000, S&P Small Cap 600, KRE Regional Banks, S&P MidCap 400, Copenhagen, S&P 600 and Nasdaq Transports rose to snap their 4 straight weeks of decline.

China’s FCATC has fallen for 5 weeks.

Pakistan’s KSE has declined for 9 weeks.

Inversely, Norway’s OBX has risen for 9 weeks.

And India’s NIFTY is at its lowest close since early April 2025.

Commodities were mixed.

Intra-week saw large swings but the changes in week to week close  where muted and subdued.

Oils, Distillates, Aluminium, Cotton, Silver & Tin were the notable gainers.

Gases, Coffee, Cocoa, Palladium, Platinum & Oats were amongst the decliners.

Oats, Palm Oil and Dutch TTF Gas left overbought territory.

WTI Crude, CRB Index, Gasoil and Middle Eastern Urea have closed higher for 6 weeks straight.

Gasoline, Brent Crude, Heating Oil, JKM LNG snapped their 5-week streak of higher prices.

Sugar #16 is in a 7-week winning streak.

Palladium and Platinum have declined for 4 weeks, falling 27% and 23% respectively, over that time.

And U.S. Gulf Urea prices have risen for 16 consecutive weeks.

Currencies were quieter.

The Aussie fell.

All of the Aussie pairs except against the Kiwi and Rupee exited

AUD/THB fell and snapped a 5-week rising streak.

CAD was lower.

Euro rose.

The USD was mainly higher,

CLP/USD rose slightly to snap its 5-week losing streak.

And the USD/ZAR is in a 4-week winning streak.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Aluminium 2%, WTI Crude Oil 1.4%, Cotton 3.2%, Heating Oil 10.7%, Cattle 2.3%, Tin 5.9%, LME Aluminium 3.3%, Orange Juice 9.3%, Urea U.S. Gulf 1.9%, Gasoil 1.9%, Silver in AUD 4.9%, Silver in USD 2.7%, Gold in AUD 2.1%, Wheat 1.6%, DJ Transports 1.8%, BOVESPA 3%, Mexico 4%, SA40 1.8%, SMI 2%, S&P 600 1.1%, Nasdaq Transports 1.8%, TSX 2.1%, Vietnam 1.5% and ASX Materials rose 4.6%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

Cocoa (2.8%), JKM LNG (6%), Arabica Coffee (2.6%), Lumber (2.1%), Palladium (2.7%), Platinum (5.1%), Gasoline (1.3%), Robusta Coffee (1.9%), Dutch TTF Gas (8.4%), Oats (4.6%), CSI 300 (1.4%), FCATC (2.9%), Nasdaq Composite (3.2%), KOSPI (5.9%), FTSE 250 (1.8%), Nasdaq 100 (3.2%), SOX (2.8%), S&P 500 (2.1%), TA35 (5%) and BIST fell 2.7%.

March 29, 2026

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au 

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Macro Extremes (week ending March 20, 2026)

March 22, 2026 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities. 

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

10-year Austria, Belgian, Brazilian, Chilan, Czech, Spanish, British, Italian, Norwegian, Polish, Portuguese and U.S. government bond yields.

2-year Chilean and U.S. government bond yields.

3-year U.S. bond yields

5-year EU and U.S. bond yields

7-year U.S. bond yields

20 year U.S. bond yields

British 30-year bond yields

U.S. 5–7-year Investment Grade, High Yield and BB Rated yields

TBX

U.S. 5-year bond yield minus U.S. 3 month bill yield

U.S. 5-year bond yield minus U.S. inflation rate spread

Cotton

Palm Oil *

Sugar

Oats *

AUC/CHF *

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Aussie 3-year government bond yields.

Australian and Japanese 5-year bond yields.

10-year Japanese bond yields

Australian Coking Coal

Rotterdam Coal *

Bloomberg Commodity Index *

North American Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

AUD/EUR *

AUD/GBP *

AUD/IDR

AUD/INR

AUD/JPY

AUD/SGD

CNH/USD

TAEIX *

KOSPI

OBX *

TA 35 Index *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Australian, EU, British and Italian 2-year government bond yields.

British 3 & 5 year bond yields

Indonesian and Greek 10-year government bond yields.

Richards Bay Coal *

Brent Crude Oil *

WTI Crude Oil *

Heating Oil *

JKM LNG in USD and Yen *

Newcastle Coal *

Gasoline *

S&P GSCI Index *

CRB Index *

Dutch TTF Gas *

Urea (U.S, Gulf and Middle East) *

Gasoil *

AUD/ZAR

AUD/THB *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

IEI

SHY

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 2 year bond yield spread *

U.S. 5 year minus 2 year bond yield spread

U.S. 30 year minus U.S. 10 year bond yield spread

CHF/AUD *

KRW/USD *

CAC Index

IDX Composite *

DAX Index

Nasdaq Composite

S&P 500

ASX Industrials *

UAE’s DFM Index

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

EUR/AUD

GBP/AUD *

HKD/USD

JPY/AUD

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

Australian 10 year minus Aussie 2 year bond yield spread

Australian 10 year minus Aussie 5 year bond yield spread

NZD/AUD *

INR/USD

NIFTY *

SENSEX *

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields rose, again.

More 10-year government bond yields joined the overbought list.

Many more yield spreads are on this week’s list.

And Chilean 2-year yields have risen for 7 consecutive weeks.

Equities continued their decline.

Austria’s ATX, Indonesia’s IDX, DJ Industrials, BOVESPA, S&P Small Cap 600, Russell 2000, Nasdaq Composite, KRE Regional Banks, S&P MidCap 400, Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, NIFTY and ASX Financials have all declined for 4 straight weeks.

China’s FCATC has fallen for 5 weeks.

Pakistan’s KSE has declined for 8 weeks.

Inversely, Norway’s OBX has risen for 8 weeks.

Australia’s Materials Index has slumped 20% within 3 weeks.

Indonesia’s IDX Composite man reverted having fallen 27% over the past 8 weeks.

And India’s NIFTY is at its lowest close since early April 2025.

Commodities were mixed, again.

Coal, Oils, LNG, Coffee, Sugar and Distillates were the notable gainers. 

Aluminium, Copper, Tn, Orange Juice, Palladium, Silver, Gold and Soybeans were amongst the decliners.

Gold in no longer overbought, no matter which currency.

Brent Crude, Heating Oil, WTI Crude, JKM LNG, Gasoline, CRB Index and Middle Eastern Urea have closed higher for 5 weeks straight.

Sugar #16 is in a 6-week winning streak.

Iron Ore fell and snapped 4 weeks of advance.

Soybeans fell and broke a 6 week winning streak

U.S. Gulf Urea prices have risen for 15 consecutive weeks.

And Copper is at its lowest weekly close since late November, 2025.

Currencies were quieter.

The Aussie rose and AUD pairs still feature amongst the extremes.

AUD/EUR fell and snapped a 12 week rising streak.

The Loonie was weaker.

The Euro rose.

The Kiwi rose against the Aussie and broke a 6 week losing run.

CAD/JPY fell and broke a 4 week winning streak.

While the Colombian Peso has declined for 5 weeks against the USD.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Australian Coking Coal 3.6%, Richards Bay Coal 4.6%, Brent Crude 8.8%, WTI Crude 1.9%, Cotton 2.2%, Heating Oil 13.8%, JKM LNG 18.4%, Arabica Coffee 8.6%, Cattle 1.7%, JKM LNG in Yen9.5%, Newcastle Coal 7.5%, Gasoline 8%, Robusta Coffee 6.1%, Sugar 9.3%, Sugar #16 5.3%, Dutch TTF Gas 16.9%, Urea U.S. Gulf 3.2%, Gasoil 19%, KBW Banks 1.6%, EGX 1.8%, KOSPI 5.4%, SET 1.7%, STI 2.2%, TA35 3.3% and Dubai’s DFM Index rose 2.3%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

Aluminium (8.8%), Lean Hogs (2.3%), Copper (6.6%), Lithium Carbonate (2.5%), Lithium Hydroxide (2.1%), Tin (8.4%), Natural Gas (2%), Orange Juice (19%), Palladium (8.5%), Platinum (3.5%), Uranium (2.9%), Silver in AUD (16.2%), Silver in USD (15.8%), Gold in AUD (11%), Gold in CAD (10.5%), Gold in CHF (10.8%), Gold in EUR (11.6%), Gold in GBP (11.2%), Gold in USD (10.5%), Gold in ZAR (10.2%), Oats (4.9%), Rice (2.5%), Soybean (5.2%), Wheat (3%), Shanghai Composite (3.4%), CSI 300 (2.2%), All World Developed ex USA (1.6%), AEX (4%), ATX (1.3%), CAC (3.1%), DAX (4.6%), DJ Industrials (2.3%), FCATC (4.3%), MIB (3.3%), IBB (2.3%), IBEX (2%), Russell 2000 (1.8%), Nasdaq Composite (2.1%), FTSE 250 (3.3%), S&P MidCap 400 (1.6%), Mexico (2.3%), Nasdaq 100 (2%), Copenhagen (2.7%), Helsinki (2.4%), Stockholm (5.1%), South Africa 40 (4.8%), SMI (4%), IGPA (1.7%), S&P 500 (1.9%), TSX (3.8%), FTSE (3.3%), Vietnam (2.9%), ASX 200 (2.2%), ASX Materials (7.1%), ASX Industrials (2.4%) and the ASX Smal Caps fell 4%.

March 22, 2026

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au 

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What Now? – December 2025 Newsletter

December 18, 2025 Leave a comment

It has been some time since my July 17, 2025 newsletter.
I haven’t had anything new to say.
 
In that edition, along with the June and April 2025 versions, my main message was;

“I don’t (didn’t) see any structural problems in the global equity market”.
 
Those newsletters contained a host of analysis illustrating that the currency and bond markets told me that the “prospects for equities is OK” and we were not experiencing any peaks nor bubbles.

Since and during, I have been accumulating various equities and building portfolios for clients with the focus on “making money in any type of market conditions”.

I also wrote about the opportunities observed in the healthcare and transport industries, along with Chinese equities and commodities such as Palladium.

They have all performed well.

The latter has soared 70% since it was mentioned in my June 20, 2025 newsletter which is notably more than the 27% rise seen in the Gold price, over the same time.

And the markets have been very kind.

 
You may want to read the April 1, 2025 and April 10, 2025 newsletters where I was stating the case for “buying” rather than running and selling.

Since my April 10, 2025 newsletter, the MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI) and the S&P 500 have risen 23%, while the ASX 200 climbed 16%. Those returns should temper and place the giddiness of Gold’s advance within perspective.

While the price of various (and many other) stocks have doubled or more.

Those returns were achieved amidst the cited ‘noise’ and ‘concern’.

That’s why its important to ignore the noise or narrative and rely on the data, mathematics and signals.

This reminder remains intact.
 
 
Between April 2025 and now, I have taken profits in selected stocks and started positioning portfolios is a new series of stocks which seem to be unwanted and trading at much cheaper valuations than I’ve seen at any time over the past few years.
 

  • Today, I am discovering many investing ideas across the equity markets.
  • One doesn’t find such a range of opportunities when the market is forming a peak.
  • Inversely, when equity markets are at or near a peak, I can’t usually find anything worthy of investment.

 
Furthermore, there are so many high-quality companies which are attractively priced that investors don’t need to trawl through the gutters of speculation.  
 
My current areas of interest include a range of companies in software, online marketplaces, data and verification providers, brand name chemical companies, cloud accounting and some selected biotech’s.

Coming soon, I anticipate including energy and building materials companies to that list.
 
And I still don’t see any structural problems in the global equity markets.
 
 
Thank you for being a reader of my various opinions and views and I hope you find a nugget of value within them.

Also, thanks to those who forward to and share my newsletter with others.
 
Season’s Greetings to all and wishing you a prosperous and healthy 2026.
 

Until next time,

Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au

.
In between newsletters, you can read my varied commentary across a range of markets and asset classes on my blog or Linkedin page.

Feel free to pass this onto your friends and professional associates. They are also welcome to contact me on +61 438 921 403 or send an email to rob@karriasset.com.au


“I think diversification and all the stuff they’re teaching at business school today is probably the most misguided concept everywhere” – Stanley Druckenmiller

“If you can’t accept volatility in the value of your assets, allow me to introduce you to a bank term deposit” – Me

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Macro Extremes (week ending November 28, 2025)

November 30, 2025 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities. 

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Australian government bond yield curve *

Baltic Dry Index

Tin

CAD/JPY *

CLP/USD

GBP/JPY *

Austria’s ATX equity index

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Japanese 5 year government bond yield

Platinum

Silver

Gold

CHF/JPY *

EUR/JPY *

Hungary’s BUX Index *

Egypt’s EGX Index *

IBB biotech ETF *

Brazil’s Bovespa equity index

Pakistan’s KSE Index *

South Korea’s KOSPI

Nasdaq Biotech Index *

Czechia’s PX Index *

South Africa’s SA40 equity index

Chile’s IGPA *

Israel’s TA35 *

Canada’s TSX equity index

And the S&P Biotech ETF *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Australian 10 year minus U.S. 10 year bond yield spread

Korean and Japanese 10 year government bond yields

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Bitcoin

British 2 and 3 year bind yields

Polish 10 year government bond yield

Palm Oil

Cattle *

Dutch TTF Gas

And the ASX 200 equity index

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

U.S. 10 year bond yield divided by Australian 10 year yield spread

Richards Bay Coal *

Lumber *

Sugar #16

Rice *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

Chile 10 year government bond yield

U.S. 10 year bond yield minus Aussie 10 year bond yield spread

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields rose….

Except for those found in France, Spain and Great Britain.

The Australain 2 year bond yield is nearly overbought.

Kiwi and Japanese 10 year yields have climbed for 6 weeks,

While Czech 10 year yields fell and broke their 5 week advance.

Equities had a terrific week.

Bounces were seen everywhere.

Biotech’s added to its recent run higher.

Chile’s IGPA and IPSA indices are in a 7 week winning streak.
The All World Developed (ex USA) index rose and erased all of last week’s decline.

While the FCATC, S&P MidCap 400, SET, ASX 200, ASX Industrials and the Russell 2000 rose and snapped their 4 week losing streaks.

Commodities mostly firmed.

Shipping Rates, Cocoa, the precious metals, Orange Juice and Tin were the notable gainers. 

Heating Oil, LNG, Rice, Gasoil and Dutch TTF Gas dominated the losers category. 

Soybeans are in a 7 week winning streak.

U.S. Gulf Urea along with Wheat prices have fallen for 4 weeks.

Natural Gas have risen for 6 weeks and has soared 30% over that time.

Cocoa and Lumber rose and broke their 5 week losing streaks.

Orange Juice soared 10% and halted a 4 week decline.

Cattle rose and ended its 6 week losing streak.

And Lean Hogs rose 4% and snapped an 8 week slump.

Currencies moved in stealth mode.

The Yen’s weakness sees it various pairs in this week’s list of extremes.

The Aussie rose.

The Euro was mixed.

The USD was lower,

And the USD/Chinese Yuan is approaching oversold levels.

And Bitcoin (in USD) rose and broke its 4 week losing streak.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Richard Bay Coal 1.9%, Aluminium 3.5%, Rotterdam Coal 2%, Bloomberg Commodity Index 2.7%, Baltic Dry Index 6.8%, Cocoa 6.7%, Lean Hogs 3.6%, Copper 3.3%, Tin 2.6%, Natural Gas 3.1%, Nickel 2.4%, Orange Juice 9.6%, Palladium 5.9%, Plarinum 10.6%, Sugar 2.9%, SPGSCI 1.6%, CRB Index 2%, Silver in AUD 11.1%, Silver in USD 12.7%, Gold rose between 2%-4% in various currencies, Corn 2%, Oats 3.2%, Shanghai Composite 1.4%, CSI 300 1.6%, All World Developed ex USA 3.4%, AEX 1.8%, ATX 4.6%, BKX 4.1%, BUX 2.1%, CAC 1.8%, DAX 3.2%, DJ Industrials 3.2%, DJ Transports 3.6%, FCATC 4.7%, MIB 1.6%, HSCEI 2.4%, Hang Seng 2.5%, IBB 3.8%, IBEX 3.5%, Bovespa 2.8%, S&P Small Cap 600 4.6%, Russell 2000 5.6%, TAIEX 4.5%, Nasdaq Composite 4.9%, KRE Regional Banks 2.2%, KSE 2.8%, Kospi 1.9%, FTSE 250 3.8%, S&P MidCap 400 4%, Mexico 2.8%, NBI Biotech ETF 3.8%, Nasdaq 100 4.9%, Nikkei 225 3.4%, Oslo 1.6%, Copenhagen 3%, Helsinki 2.7%, Stockholm 3.3%, PX 2.6%, SMI 1.6%, SOX 9.7%, IGPA 3%, S&P 500 3.7%, Nasdaq Transports 4.8%, TSX 4.1%, FTSE 100 1.9%, Vietnam 2.2%, WIG 2.7%, XBI 5.6%, ASX 200 2.4%, ASX Materials 5%, ASX Industrials 4.2% and the ASX Small Caps rose 5.8%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

Heating Oil (3.8%), JKM LNG (3.3%), LNG in Yen (8%), Newcastle Coal (1.7%), Sugar #16 (1.6%), Dutch TTF Gas (5.1%), Gasoil (3.7%) and Rice fell 3.5%.

November 30, 2025 

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au 

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending September 20, 2025)

September 21, 2025 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities. 

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Chinese 10 year government bond yields *

IEF & TLT *

AUD/IDR *

AUD/CAD *

AUD/SGD *

AUD/USD *

CNH/USD

MYR/USD

THB/USD

HSCEI Index

IPC Mexico equity index *

And Brazil’s BOVESPA equity index * 

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Urea (Middle East) prices * 

Silver in AUD & USD *

CHF/JPY

Shanghai Composite Index *  

CSI 300 *

China A50 *

Taiwan’s TAIEX *

Nasdaq Composite *

Pakistan’s KSE Index * 

South Korea’s KOSPI * 

Nasdaq 100

Japan’s Nikkei 225

Czechia’s PX Index *

South Africa’s SA40 *

Chile’s IGPA and IPSA indices * 

Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX)

S&P 500 Index

Canada’s TSX *  

Vietnam’s VN Index * 

And the ASX Small Cap Index * 

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Gold in AUD, CHF, GBP and USD

China’s FCATC *

Hang Seng Index

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

U.S, & New Zealand 10 year government bond yield *

Australian 10 year bond yield minus its 5 year bond yield *

TBT *

U.S. 20 and 30 year bond yields

U.S. 10 year bond yield minus 10 year breakeven inflation rate

USD/SEK *

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

Lumber *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

U.S. 3 month bill yield *

Richards Bay Coal *

NZD/AUD

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields rose, except for those in Australia, Italy, Finland, South Korea and New Zealand

It was a boring week in bonds.

U.S. corporate bond yields (and the high yield effective yield) are a whisker from oversold levels and at are at their most oversold since December 2020.

Canadian 10 year yields mean reverted.

Swiss 10 year bond yields have fallen for 4 weeks.

And Swedish 10 year yields are approaching oversold territory.

Equities were mostly firmer, but subdued.

New entrants to the overbought extreme list includes the Nasdaq 100, the SOX, S&P 500, the Hang Seng and the HSCEI.

Israel’s TA25 and Singapore’s Strait Times are no longer at overbought extremes.

The latter fell and broke its 4 week winning streak.

The TAIEX and Nikkei 225 have risen for 4 weeks.

The Dow Jones Transports and ASX Industrials have fallen for 4 weeks.

The Philippines PSE rose and broke its 5 week slump.

While the Russell 2000, TSX and ASX Small Caps have put together a 7 week winning streak.

And the S&P 500 has risen for 10 of the past 13 weeks.

Commodities were generally quiet.

Coal, Precious Metals, Uranium and Shipping Rates were amongst the notable gainers. 

Coffee, Cocoa, Lumber, Tin, Palladium and Soybeans dominated the losers category. 

Coal prices rallied and saw the Newcastle Coking contract depart oversold territory.

The Copper/Gold ratio is nearing oversold levels.

Lean Hogs, Silver in AUD & USD along with Gold in AUD, CAD, CHF, and ZAR are all in a 5 week rising streak.

Platinum has risen for 7 weeks.

Cocoa has declined for 5 weeks.

Richards Bay Coal, Lumber and U.S. Gulf urea prices are in 8 week losing streaks and all appear in this weeks extreme list.

Currencies were active, again.

The Aussie, the British Pound and the USD were weaker.

While the Loonie and Euro were firmer.

The AUD weakness compared to Loonie strength poses a contradiction.

JPY/USD has fallen for 4 weeks.

The Kiwi has slumped for 8 weeks against the Aussie.

The Swissie has risen against the Yen for 5 weeks.

The CHF/USD has climbed for 6 weeks.

USD/SEK rose and broke 6 weeks of decline.

And the USD/BRL completed a medium term men reversion.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Australian Coking Coal 2%, Baltic Dry Index 3.7%, Cattle 1.6%, Newcastle Coal 6.8%, Uranium 2.3%, Silver in AUD 3%, Silver in USD 2.1%, Gold in AUD 2%, Gold in GBP 1.8%, AEX 2.3%, KBW Banks 2.1%, IDX 2.5%, FCATC 3.8%, Bovespa 2.5%, Russell 2000 2%, Nasdaq Composite 2.2%, KSE 2.3%, Nasdaq 100 2.2%, PSE 2.5%, SOX 3.8%, BIST 8.9% and the XBI rose 1.6%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

Cocoa (2.7%), Arabica Coffee (8%), Lumber (3.2%), Tin (3%), Aluminium (1.8%), Natural Gas (1.8%), Palladium (6.5%), Robusta Coffee (10.1%), Sugar (1.8%), Soybeans (2%), TA35 (2%) and ASX Materials fell 1.5%.

September 21, 2025 

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au 

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending September 12, 2025)

September 14, 2025 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities. 

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Chinese & Dutch 10 year government bond yields *

IEF & TLT *

Australian 10 year minus U.S. 10 year bond yield spread *

Gold in AUD, CHF, EUR, GBP and ZAR

AUD/IDR *

AUD/CAD *

AUD/SGD

AUD/USD

And Brazil’s BOVESPA equity index * 

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Urea (Middle East) prices * 

Silver in USD *

Shanghai Composite Index *  

CSI 300 *

China A50

China’s FCATC

Taiwan’s TAIEX

Nasdaq Composite

Pakistan’s KSE Index * 

South Korea’s KOSPI * 

Japan’s Nikkei 225

Czechia’s PX Index *

South Africa’s SA40 *

Chile’s IGPA and IPSA indices * 

Singapore’s Strait Times 

Israel’s TA 35 Index *

Canada’s TSX *  

Vietnam’s VN Index * 

And the ASX Small Cap Index * 

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Gold in USD and CAD *

AUD/INR

IPC Mexico equity index *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

New Zealand 10 year government bond yield  

Australian 10 year bond yield minus its 5 year bond yield

TBT

U.S. 3, 5, 7, 10, 20 and 30 year bond yields

U.S. 10 year bond yield minus 10 year breakeven inflation rate

Newcastle Coal

AUD/THB

CAD/AUD

USD/SEK

And Philippines’ PSI equity index 

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

Rice

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

U.S. 3 month bill yield *

Richards Bay Coal

Lumber *

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields rose, except for U.S. and UK 30’s, which rose.

Last week’s overbought sovereign 10’s are no longer.

U.S. corporate bond yields (and the high yield effective yield) are a whisker from oversold levels and at are at their most oversold since December 2020.

The U.S. 5 year breakeven rate bounced out of oversold territory.

Canadian 10 year yields have fallen for 4 weeks.

U.S. 7 year bond yields mean converged.

U.S. 2 and 30 year yields rose and broke for their 4 weeks falling streak.

And the U.S  10 year minus inflation rate spread is at its most oversold level since March 2022.

Equities were firmer, again.

The overbought list grew this week with notable new entrants including the Nasdaq Composite and the Nikkei 225.

Chinese indices are crowding the overbought list too.

Amidst all the concerns surrounding tariffs, Mexico has registered an overbought quinella.

The Dow Jones Transports have fallen for 3 weeks while the Philippines PSE has slumped for 5 weeks.

The Strait Times is in a 4 week wining streak.

Bovespa fell and broke a 5 week winning streak.

The Russell 2000, TSX and ASX Small Caps have put together a 6 week winning streak.

And the S&P 500 has risen for 9 of the past 12 weeks.

Commodities were generally stronger.

Crude Oil, Aluminium, Coffee, Orange Juice, Shipping Rates and Corn were amongst the notable gainers. 

Coal, Rice, Natural Gas, Cattle and Lithium Carbonate dominated the losers category. 

Sugar rose from being oversold with Rice taking its place.

The Copper/Gold ratio is nearing oversold levels.

Corn, Lean Hogs, Silver in AUD & USD along with Gold in AUD, CAD, CHF, and EUR are all in a 4 week rising streak.

Platinum has risen for 6 weeks.

Cocoa has declined for 4 weeks.

Richards Bay Coal, Lumber and U.S. Gulf urea prices are in 6 week losing streaks.

Currencies were active, again.

The Aussie rose notably.

While the Yen, Loonie and the Euro fell.

The Swissie has risen against the Yen for 4 weeks.

The CHF/USD has climbed for 5 weeks.

USD/SEK has declined for 6 weeks.

And the NZD/AUD is a 7 week losing streak.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Aluminium 3.6%, Brent Crude 2.3%, Baltic Dry Index 7.4%, WTI Crude 1.3%, Copper 2.2%, Arabica 6.2%, Orange Juice 6.2%, Palladium 10.8%, Platinum 1.8%, Robusta Coffee 6.8%, Sugar 1.5%, Tin 1.9%, Dutch TTF Gas 2.2%, Gasoil 1.8%, Silver in USD 2.9%, Gold in CAD 1.7%, Gold in USD 1.6%, Corn 2.9%, Soybeans 1.9%, Shanghai Composite 1.5%, KBW Banks 2%, CAC 2%, China A50 2.1%, FCATC 6.4%, MIB 2.3%, HSCEI 3.4%, Hang Seng 3.8%, IBEX 3.1%, TAEIX 4%, Nasdaq Composite 2%, KLSE 1.4%, KOSPI 5.9%, Mexico 2.2%, Nasdaq 100 1.9%, Nikkei 225 4.1%, Nifty 1.5%, Oslo 1.8%, Helsinki 1.5%, South Africa 3.1%, Sensex 1.5%, SET 2.3%, SOX 4.2%, TA35 1.5% and the S&P 500 rose 1.6%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

Richards Bay Coal (2.4%), Rotterdam Coal (2.4%), EHR (2%), Cattle (2.5%), Lithium Carbonate (2.2%), Newcastle Coal (7.5%), Natural Gas (3.5%), Rice (3.3%), BUX (1.9%), IBB (1.5%), NBI (1.6%), SMI (1.4%), IGPA (2.1%), IPSA (2.4%), BIST (3.3%) and the ASX Industrials index fell 1.3%.

September 13, 2025 

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au 

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending September 5th, 2025)

September 7, 2025 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities. 

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Chinese, French, British, Greek Norwegian & Swedish 10 year government bond yields *

30 year British bond yield 

IEF & IEI

Australian 10 year minus U.S. 10 year bond yield spread

Italian 2 and 10 year bond yields

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 2 year bond yield spread

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 5 year bond yield spread *

Gold in AUD, GBP and ZAR

AUD/IDR

AUD/CAD

BOVESPA 

IPC Mexico equity index 

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Cattle * 

Urea (Middle East) prices * 

Silver in AUD & USD

Gold in CHF & EUR

Shanghai Composite Index *  

Pakistan’s KSE Index * 

South Korea’s KOSPI * 

Czechia’s PX Index

South Africa’s SA40 * 

Israel’s TA 35 Index

Canada’s TSX *  

Vietnam’s VN Index * 

And the ASX Small Cap Index * 

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 5 year bond yield spread

Gold in US and CAD

CSI 300 *

Chile’s IGPA and IPSA indices * 

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Belgian 10 year government bond yield  

U.S. 2, 3, 5, 7 and 10 year bond yields

U.S. 5 year bond yield minus 5 year breakeven inflation rate

U.S. 10 year bond yield minus Australian 10 year bond yield

U.S. 10 year bond yield minus 10 year breakeven inflation rate

U.S. 10 year bond yield divided by Australian 10 year bond yield 

Australian Coking Coal

Philippines PSI equity index 

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

Sugar

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

U.S. 3 month bill yield *

Lumber *

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields fell.

Some overbought entrants this week appeared as so due to intra week highs.

U.S. corporate bond yields are nearing oversold levels.

U.S. 7 year bond yields are close to some mean reversion.

Indonesian 10 year yields rose and broke a 4 week falling streak.

U.S. 2 and 3 year yields have fallen for 4 weeks.

U.S. 3 month bill are oversold and in a 6 week losing streak. 

Indian 10 year yields fell and halted their 8 week climb, 

And June 2019 was the last time the U.S. 5 year real interest rate simultaneously mean reverted and registered an oversold extreme.

Equities rose mixed with a slight bias towards weakness. 

This has resulted in half of last week’s overbought entrants no longer being so, this week. 

A couple Chinese indices left overbought extreme territory.

Shanghai, CSI 300, KBW Banks index, ASX 200 and FCATC fell and ended their 4 week winning streak.

The following indices are in 5 week winning streaks; Bovespa, Russell 2000, TSX and the ASX Small Caps.

While the HSCEI and Hang Seng rose.

Commodities were mixed, again.

Gases, Precious Metals and  Rubber were amongst the notable gainers. 

Crude Oil, Coffee, Coal, Lithium, Orange Juice, Sugar, Oats and Wheat dominated the losers category. 

The Copper/Gold ratio is nearing oversold levels.

Richards Bay Coal, Lumber and U.S. Gulf urea prices are in 5 week losing streaks.

Arabica Coffee, Tin and Uranium broke their 4 week winning.

Platinum has risen for 5 weeks.

Middle East Urea prices have risen for 10 weeks.

Cattle broke its 10 straight weeks of gains.

Currencies were active.

The Aussie, Euro and Swissie rose.

The CHF/USD has risen for 4 weeks.

The Loonie fell.

The British Pound and Yen were slightly softer, again.

The U.S. Dollar was slightly weaker.

USD/SEK has declined for 5 weeks.

And the NZD/AUD is a 6 week losing streak.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Palm Oil 1.6%, LNG in Yen 3.9%, Natural Gas 1.7%, Silver in AUD 3%, Silver in USD 3.3%, Gold in AUD 3.8%, Gold in USD 4%, Rubber 2.9%, Gold in CHF 3.7%, Gold in EUR 3.7%, Gold in GBP 4%, Gold in CAD 4.7%, Gold in ZAR 3.7%, IBB 3.6%, KSE 3.8%, Mexico 3%, NBI 3.6%, SET 2.3%, SMI 1.5%, SOX 1.6%, IGPA 3.3%, IPSA 3.5%, XBI 6.3% and Canada’s TSX rose 1.7%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

Richards Bay Coal (1.8%), Brent Crude (2.9%), BDI (2.3%), Cocoa (3.1%), WTI Crude (3.3%), Arabica Coffee (3.2%), Lumber (1.5%), Lithium Carbonate (4.6%), Newcastle Coal (1.4%), Nickel (1.4%), Orange Juice (5.2%), Robusta Coffee (10.5%), Sugar (5%), Tin (2.3%), CRB Index (1.5%), Urea U.S. Gulf (1.9%), Oats (3.7%), Rice (2.3%), Soybean (2.6%), Wheat (2.8%), KBW Bank Index (1.6%), DAX (1.3%), Egypt (2.7%), FCATC (2.7%), BIST (5%) and Italy’s MIB fell 1.4%.

September 7, 2025 

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au 

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Bitcoin doesn’t march to its own drum

June 12, 2025 Leave a comment

Ya know that Bitcoin’s USD price is close correlated to the S&P 500 Index….

and when it’s not, often the SPX rises against BTC’s decline.

June 12, 2025

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending May 23, 2025)

May 25, 2025 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

British 30 year government bond yield

U.S. 30 year government bond yield

Norwegian 10 year government bond yield

TBT & TBX

Platinum 

MYR/USD

THB/USD

Overbought (RSI > 70) 

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 5 year bond yield spread *

U.S. 30 year minus U.S. 5 year bond yield spread 

Gold in AUD and USD

GBP/USD

PHP/USD

And Spain’s IBEX index *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

None

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

None

Oversold (RSI < 30)

Indian 10 year government bond yield * 

Lithium Carbonate *

Lithium Hydroxide *

USD/SEK

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

None

Notes & Ideas:

Most Government bond yields rose, again as did investment grade and high yield corporate bonds.

Australian and Euro bond yields along with British 2, 3 & 5 year yields fell.

IEF and TLT are in 4 week losing streaks.

Indian 10 year bond yields rose and broke their 7 weeks of decline.

Italian 2 year bond yields broke their 4 week rising streak.

U.S. 10 year yield minus U.S. 10 year inflation rate is nearly overbought

And U.S. 5, 7, 10, 20 and 30 year yields are in 4 week rising streaks along with the U.S. 5 year minus U.S. 3 month spread and the respective U.S. 5 year yield and U.S 10 year yield minus inflation rate.

Equities were mostly weaker.

Predictably, many of the winning streaks appearing in last weeks edition have come to an end.

The remaining winning streaks intact belong to the Jakarta Composite, HSCEI, Hang Seng and the IBEX, sitting at 6 weeks.

Spain’s IBEX remains the only index in overbought territory.

And the All World Developed (ex USA) index has risen for 6 of the last 7 weeks.

Commodities were mixed.

The largest winners were LNG, Copper, Orange Juice, Precious Metals & Grains.

The notable losers included Cocoa, Hogs, Urea, Robusta Coffee and Shipping Rates.

Platinum is overbought and Gold in AUD and USD returned to being so.

Newcastle and Richards Bay Coal rose and are no longer oversold.

Cattle and Urea left overbought territory.

Uranium broke its 5 week winning streak.

Corn rose and broke its 5 week losing streak. 

Currencies were little more active.

The big news was the 2% decline in the U.S. (DXY) Dollar and it broke its 4 consecutive weeks of advance.

The Greenback feel more than 2% against the Won, Yen, Swiss and Swedish Krona.

USD/ZAR is in a 7 week falling streak.

The Aussie broke all streaks which appeared in last weeks edition. The AUD fell everywhere except vs the USD, where it rose 1.4%

The Swiss and Yen were firmer, mimicking the risk-off sentiment seen in equities.

The British Pound was stronger and has risen for 6 straight weeks against the EUR.

And the Loonie was mixed.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Rotterdam Coal 1.4%, All World Developed (ex USA) 1.7%, Cotton 1.9%, Copper 5.3%, JKM LNG 5%, Cattle 1.8%, LNG in Yen 4.1%, Newcastle Coal 4.3%, Orange Juice 8.8%, Palladium 4.6%, Platinum 9.9%, Dutch TTF Gas 3.7%, Silver in AUD 2.2%, Silver in USD 3.7%, Gold in AUD 3.3%, Gold in CAD 3.2%, Gold in CHF 2.8%, Gold in EUR 3%, Gold in Sterling 2.8%, Gold in USD 4.9%, Gold in ZAR 3.9%, Corn 3.6%, Oats 3.6%, Rice 2.8%, Wheat 3.3%, IDX 1.5% and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) rose 1.4%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included;

Baltic Dry Index (3.5%), Cocoa (10.4%), DXY (1.9%), Lean Hogs (2%), Tin (1.7%), Aluminium (1.7%), Gasoline (1.3%), Robusta Coffee (1.5%), Sugar (1.3%), Urea (3.2%), Gasoil (1.1%), AEX (1.5%), KBW Bank (4.1%), BUX (1.7%), CAC (1.9%), DJ Industrials (2.4%), DJ Transports (4.1%), MIB (2.9%), S&P SmallCap 600 (4.2%), Russell 2000 (3.5%), Nasdaq Composite (2.5%), KLSE (2.3%), KRE Regional Banks (4.8%), S&P MidCap 400 (3.6%), Nasdaq 100 (2.4%), Nikkei 225 (1.6%) and the OMX Stockholm fell 2.5%.

May 25, 2025

By Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

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