Trying to hear what's not being said
May 7, 2025 Leave a comment
Today I was giving some presentations in the big smoke.
I was espousing the thesis of “trading the signals, not the headlines”.
Under the category of “when you think you know capital markets”, I used these 2 examples of how perverse things can become…..
but it helps to use the signals and not the headlines and certainly not “the narrative”.
May 7, 2025
rob@karriasset.com.au
January 19, 2025 Leave a comment
The #Swiss Franc versus the USD has traded down to its lowest point since March 2023.
That’s just a price point fact, nothing more.
The Swissie is in a downtrend and it still has strength. It’s out of favour.
‘We’ love to sell the Swissie when risk is ‘on’,
but I think the medium low is near if it doesn’t make a new ‘lower low’.
If it does, we should see a quick visit to the 1.0680 region and that would be an attractive buying point.
but also, I’m observing some divergence in the #Swissie compared to other assets.
January 19, 2025
rob@karriasset.com.au
November 12, 2024 Leave a comment
Buying #TSLA stock when it’s price is trading at 3 (upper, weekly) standard deviations is folly.
See you closer to $250.
The same applies to Bitcoin….I’ll look for it to visit $49,000 at least
November 12, 2024
rob@karriasset.com.au
September 2, 2024 Leave a comment
When the CAD/CHF is declining, ‘they’ are selling the Loonie and huddling into the safety of the Swissie.
This happens when ‘we’ don’t fancy a risky environment. That also means risker assets such as equities are also being aggressively disposed.
While not to be used in isolation, the study below shows 16 moments (over the past 40 years) when the CAD/CHF registered a Monthly RSI reading of less than 33.
When it does, perhaps ponder increasing your asset allocation towards equities.
The nuance is which equities (market) to buy.
Currently, it’s close but not there yet.
And remember, currencies don’t lie or tell stories.
September 2, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
August 16, 2024 Leave a comment
and just like that, the #VIX is back to 15.
A new complacency to ensue?
perhaps, but I’m reminded that parabolas mean revert quickly.
August 16, 2024
August 12, 2024 Leave a comment
Last week’s palaver about unwinding Yen trades is old news.
The Yen has nearly swung to the other side of the pendulum.
The study below shows the 13 moments over the past 15 years when the AUD/JPY was trading (coinciding with a couple other metrics) at a weekly RSI reading of 36 or below.
I say ‘nearly swung’, for we are close but not there yet……for another such occurrence.
When they do occur, they bode well for listed equities risk appetite.
The Nasdaq 100 index appears within my study as a comparison.
August 12, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
August 5, 2024 Leave a comment
Worried? Risk averse?
That’s when investors huddle in the Swiss Franc or the Japanese Yen…..inversely they dispose of their Australian Dollars.
We are approaching the 7th time (in the past 30 years) that such defensive huddling and perhaps maximum risk aversion has occurred.
The attached monthly study shows that when the CHF/AUD simultaneously registers a monthly overbought reading, trades at 2.5 standard deviations above its rolling average and at a notable percentage above its 50 month moving average…….
you don’t throw away your equities, in a wholesale manner.
In fact, consider the antithesis.
August 5, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
June 4, 2024 Leave a comment
I’m watching how the German 2 year bond yield tracks the Nasdaq 100 (or vice versa)
June 4, 2024
April 26, 2024 Leave a comment
Its the 4th time in 10 years that the Australian Dollar #AUD has traded a) at a certain percentage above my long term moving average while b) simultaneously registering an overbought weekly reading and also c) trading at stretched standard deviations above its rolling weekly mean……against the Japanese #JPY Yen.
#AUDJPY
I like watching this currency pair as an indicator of risk appetite.
April 26, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
March 11, 2024 Leave a comment
I think there is a change of direction approaching in the #VIX.
Subjectively, it seems there is complacency in equity #risk or at least expected volatility.
Factually, weekly bollinger bands are at their narrowest since February 2007.
This is when I look at putting on my #hedges or ‘fade exposure’.
You remove hedges at the other end of the pendulum.
March 11, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
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