My musings about the Natural Gas price

July 18, 2024 Leave a comment

On December 7, 2023, I wrote,

“On a daily trading basis, Henry Hub Natural Gas (NG) is my nearest buying candidate. Following today’s 5% decline (currently trading at $2.57), whether it tickles the $2.47 region is myopic.”

Navigating the Energy Markets: Short-Term Bullish on Henry Hub Natural Gas Amidst Other Energy Downtrends

While, the front contract of NG trade down to $2.52 in the next 3 days, it then rallied ~ 38% in the next 30 days.

In that same note, I framed that short-term view with;

“Although, this may be a short-term trade where I scalp some returns, while I keep in mind that $2.10 could be seen if certain trend indicators exhibit strength.”

then in May 2024, I wrote that Natural Gas and Urea may be nearing their lows…..the former has continued to decline since, I think we are getting close but not yet.

Urea, Natural Gas and things fertiliser are nearing lows

Today, Henry Hub Natural Gas price is mired with news of supply glut and milder North American weather.

Today, NG prices traded to (and below) $2.10.

Today, I need to respect the downward trend before entering a long position.

July 18, 2024

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

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It’s a gas, gas, gas

March 18, 2024 Leave a comment

Natural Gas prices are around $1.70.

What if they fall to $1.20…..well, it could present at attractive asymmetric long entry point.

In this week’s edition of Macro Extremes I wrote…….

Henry Hub Natural Gas prices fell 8% to close at an all-time low. This is another example of a parabolic price move being thumped. I’m watching closely for developing strength in this downward trend. Should it gather steam, a visit to $1.20 wouldn’t be out of the question. That’s quite move from $11 from only 20 months ago.

#Naturalgas traded to $11 when the market thought Europe would freeze as a result of a Russian gas squeeze.

With such an extraordinary low price, such cheap #gas makes renewable energy not so feasible and reiterates Natural Gas role through any process of the #energy transition.

March 18, 2024

by Rob Zdravevski

Karri Asset Advisors

rob@karriasset.com.au

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Dislocation between Natural Gas and energy equities

February 20, 2024 Leave a comment

Something looks undone between the price of #Woodside #Energy (WDS.ASX) and the Henry Hub #Naturalgas price.

You find this similar picture applies to the equity prices of other energy companies.

#correlation

February 20, 2024

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

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All time low Gas prices

February 18, 2024 Leave a comment

The Henry Hub Natural Gas futures contract price traded to an all time low this past week.

The circle in the chart below denotes the moment when the world thought Europe was going to freeze to death.

February 18, 2024

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

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Navigating the Energy Markets: Short-Term Bullish on Henry Hub Natural Gas Amidst Other Energy Downtrends

December 7, 2023 Leave a comment

I think that energy prices are in the latter part of the larger mean reversion that I have been waiting to play out.

While Crude Oil, Gasoline, Diesel and Heating Oil prices look like having more downside and are confirming downward trends, my posture, at this end of the pendulum is being a buyer rather than ‘shorting’.

On a daily trading basis, Henry Hub Natural Gas is my nearest buying candidate.

Following today’s 5% decline (currently trading at $2.57), whether it tickles the $2.47 region is myopic. It has fully retraced the 45% advance which commenced in September 2023 along with ‘backing and filling’ a large gap.

Although, this may be a short-term trade where I scalp some returns, while I keep in mind that $2.10 could be seen if certain trend indicators exhibit strength.

But I am in a broader territory where I’m a longer-term accumulator.

December 7, 2023

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

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A low in Natural Gas means a lot of things

June 12, 2023 Leave a comment

Natural Gas is trading at a price where it’s flirting around historical percentages below its 200 week moving average.

Coupled with entering weekly oversold territory, my interest is heightened.

Prior to initiating a long position, I’ll need to combine a few other studies and allow some variance on the price entry.

note: a bottoming Natural Gas price could also end the abatement seen in inflation along with a few other correlated prices and measures.

June 12, 2023

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

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Decline in Natural Gas complete

February 2, 2023 Leave a comment

That’s your lot.

A round trip move for Natural Gas, rom $2.50 to $10 and back to $2.50 all within 22 months.

Regarding my short call from $10.00 to my target of $2.50 was reached today.

That’s your lot.

The fat part of the trade has been had.

The mean reversion from those heights back to and below its 200 week moving average also corrected that parabola seen a year earlier.

It’s now Oversold on a weekly basis.

February 2, 2023

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

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Urea – Accumulate Signal

January 26, 2023 Leave a comment

U.S. Gulf Urea prices are exhibiting Oversold ‘extremes’.
Backwardation (in forward months contracts) makes for a bullish case too.

The Middle East Urea prices are nearly Oversold too.
Natural Gas (Henry Hub) are approaching Oversold as is the price of Wheat (see correlation)

January 26, 2023
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au

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Nat Gas decline nearly done

January 26, 2023 Leave a comment

Only about 30 cents to go and Natural Gas reaches my $2.50 target.

But 30 cents doesn’t matter considering my original Short call on Natural Gas from its lofty $10 mark seen several months ago.

You can read the time series of this view in all of the links below, including some that discuss correlations to Australian inflation.

The focus now is to consider a Long position in Natural Gas…..or a 2nd or 3rd derivative of that idea.

January 26, 2023
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au

Natural Gas prices collapse 65% in 4 months
What’s next for Natural Gas prices
More about Natural Gas prices
Australian Inflation Correlations (Natural Gas prices)
Careful chasing Natural Gas parabola’s
And now it’s the ‘mother’ of a peak in Natural Gas

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Watching for a ‘lower low’ in Nat Gas

December 23, 2022 Leave a comment

Perverse as it may seem (in the midst of winter), the price of Natural Gas is falling again (for various fundamental reasons) and attempting a re-test of its recent $4.75 low.

If it does, then $3.80 is plausible.

Followers of my writing would recall my notes of calling lower Gas prices from the $10 mark.

15 months earlier, I equally wrote of a pending rally, so I remain objective how I read the tape.

But what if Henry Hub Natural Gas breaks below $3.80 and fall 50% from here, down to $2.50?

December 23, 2022

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

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