Trying to hear what's not being said
June 4, 2024 Leave a comment
WTI Crude Oil ain’t $80 anymore. It’s now $73.
In my note from mid-May, I opine that oil prices see $64 and perhaps $46.
June 4, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
Karri Asset Advisors
rob@karriasset.com.au
May 29, 2024 Leave a comment
I recall ‘gold bugs’ commonly telling us that owning Gold is a hedge against inflation and a weak economy and stock market.
Lately, that story hasn’t been applicable.
Just keep this in mind when the next time that the financial media try to frame it as so.
May 29, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
May 20, 2024 Leave a comment
I think U.S. inflation can still decline to the 1.8% mark, somewhere around October 2024……
and all that comes with that for interest rates, commodity prices, growth equities and/or commercial real estate.
May 20, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
For my past quips, search “inflation” at https://robzdravevski.com/?s=inflation
April 21, 2024 Leave a comment
A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.
The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.
Extremes “above” the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations
U.S. 5-7 year corporate bond yield
Australian, Brazilian, Chilean, Japanese, South Korean and U.S. 10 year government bond yield
Japanese 2 year government bond yields
U.S. 7 year government bond yields
U.S. 20 and 30 year government bond yields
TBT
U.S. 5 year government bond yield minus U.S. 5 year inflation breakeven rate
U.S. 5 year government bond yield minus U.S. 3 month bill yield
U.S. 10 year government bond yield minus U.S. 10 year inflation breakeven rate
Gold Volatility Index
Cocoa
Nickel
Overbought (RSI > 70)
U.S. 10 year bond yield minus Australian 10 year bond yield
U.S. 10 year bond yield minus German 10 year bond yield
U.S. 10 year bond yield divided by Australian 10 year bond yield
Gold in CHF
CRB Index
Italy’s MIB
Russia’s MOEX
And Pakistan’s KSE Index
The Overbought Quinella – Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)
Coffee (Arabica)
Coffee (Robusta)
Aluminium
Copper
Tin
Silver in AUD and USD
and Gold as priced in AUD, CAD, EUR, GBP, USD and ZAR
Extremes “below” the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
IEF
IEI
SHY
TLT
Australia 10 year yield minus U.S. 10 year yield
Urea (U.S. Gulf)
CAD/USD
GBP/USD
PHP/USD
DKK/USD
INR/USD
KRW/USD
SEK/USD
Dow Jones Transports
And Thailand’s SET Index
Oversold (RSI < 30)
Chinese 10 year government bond yields
Australian Coking Coal
Lithium Hydroxide
The Oversold Quinella – Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)
Lumber
BRL/USD
IDR/USD
Notes & Ideas:
Government bond yields rose.
Chilean 10’s have risen for 6 consecutive weeks and have risen for 10 of the past 11.
Across the curve, British yields have climbed for 4 straight weeks as have South Korean and Japanese 10’s.
And Russian 10 year bond yields aren’t overbought anymore.
Equities broadly fell everywhere…..
with the exception of Chinese stocks and U.S. banks.
Impressively the Dow Jones Industrials were flat for the week.
The Russell 2000 has declined 2.8% for 3 consecutive weeks, enough to see it touch its 200 week moving average.
The DAX fallen for 3 straight weeks, while Copenhagen and Switzerland’s SMI have done so for 4 weeks.
Oslo broke its 7 week winning streak after last week’s posting of an outside bearish reversal.
And South Africa broke its 4 weeks winning streak.
Commodities were mixed.
We saw strength in base metals, softs and coals, again.
Weakness was seen in Oils, Lumber, Cotton, Soybeans, Sugar and the PGM’s.
Biodiesel and Brent Crude Oil isn’t overbought this week.
Gold, Aluminium, Copper, Coffee, Tin and Silver all appear in the overbought quinella column this week.
Gold’s weekly winning streak is at 5 while Silver has risen for 7 of the past 8 weeks.
Coffee prices were amongst the largest gainers for the week, again. Robusta Coffee has risen 31% over the past 8 weeks.
Cotton has fallen for 6 straight weeks, while Lumber’s declining streak is at 4 week.
Gasoline broke its 5 week winning streak.
The LNG JKM price (in Yen) has risen 20% over the past fortnight.
Cocoa has been overbought for 26 weeks, while putting together a recent 9 week winning streak.
Cocoa remains more expensive than Copper.
Aluminium has risen for 8 straight weeks, rising 24% over that time.
And Lithium Hydroxide has now spent 40 consecutive weeks in weekly oversold territory, however it rose 8%.
Currencies are seeing continued action.
U.S. strength is keeping many reciprocals in oversold territory.
The AUD and the Yen were weaker.
The CAD was firmer as was the Euro.
And the BRL has fallen for 7 straight weeks against the USD.
The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;
Australian Coking Coal 5.7%, Aluminium 10%, Baltic Dry Index 11%, Cocoa 9.4%, China Coking Coal 4.2%, Lean Hogs 2.5%, Copper 5.6%, Coffee 5.2%, JKM LNG in Yen 7.5%, Tin 3.5%, Newcastle Coal 6%, Nickel 9.5%, Robusta Coffee 4.7%, Shanghai Iron Ore 2.1%, Silver in AUD 3.6%, Silver in USD 2.9%, Gold in AUD 2.8%, Gold in EUR 1.9%, Gold in GBP 2.7%, Gold in USD 2.1%, Oats 2%, Rice 7.5%, Shanghai Composite 1.5%, CSI 300 1.9%, KBW Bank Index 2%, Chian A50 3.4% and Pakistan’s KRE Index rose 1.7%.
The group of largest decliners from the week included;
WTI Crude Oil (3.4%), Cotton (4.5%), Heating Oil (5.4%), Lumber (5.9%), Lithium (3.4%), Orange Juice (3.2%), Palladium (3.1%), Platinum (5.8%), Gasoline (3.3%), Biodiesel (2%), Sugar (3.5%), S&P GSCI (1.4%), Brent Crude Oil (3.3%), Gasoil (7%), Soybeans (2%), All World Developed ex USA (2.3%), AEX (2.7%), Budapest (3.3%), DJ Transports (2.7%), HSCEI (2.3%), Hang Seng (3%), IDX (4.4%), S&P SmallCap 600 (1.2%), Russell 2000 (2.8%), Nasdaq Composite (5.5%), KOSPI (3.4%), FTSE 250 (1.7%), S&P MidCap 400 (2.2%), Nasdaq Biotech (3.1%), Nasdaq 100 (3.4%), Nikkei (6.2%), Nifty (1.7%), Oslo (2.5%), PSE (3.3%), J’burg 40 (2.7%), SET (4.6%), SOX (9.2%), Chile (2.9%), S&P 500 (3.1%), TAIEX (5.8%), FTSE 100 (1.3%), Vietnam (8%), ASX 200 (2.8%), ASX Materials (2.2%), ASX Industrials (2.9%) and the ASX Small Caps fell 3.9%
April 21, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
April 19, 2024 Leave a comment
Here’s one for boffins;
My study of the U.S. 5 year government bond yields minus the 5 year breakeven inflation rate is close to hitting a combination of metrics which increases probability that the S&P 500 commences a new or extends an existing rally.
The red vertical lines denote previous such moments.
April 19, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
April 17, 2024 Leave a comment
I am posturing for higher #inflation rates, again.
My expectations (found in my historical posts) for ‘lower’ inflation has occurred and is as good as being completed.
Following up my note dated April 11, 2024, suggesting the irrelevance of the U.K. March inflation report,
While inflation has abated, now it doesn’t matter so much whether this month’s #UnitedKingdom inflation rate of 3.2% is lower than last months (year on year) figure of 3.4%.
Keep in mind, that prices are still rising and I think that is mostly a cause of capacity and supply constraints rather than notable demand.
My thinking is that #UK inflation will move to 5% rather than 2%.
Slowing demand means companies will increases prices for goods and services, in order to maintain their shrinking margins.
April 17, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
April 14, 2024 Leave a comment
A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.
The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.
Extremes “above” the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations
U.S. 5-7 year corporate bond yield
Brazilian 10 year government bond yield
Japanese 2 and 10 year government bond yields
TBX
U.S. 5 year government bond yield minus U.S. 5 year inflation breakeven rate
U.S. 5 year government bond yield minus U.S. 3 month bill yield
U.S. 2, 3, 5, 7, 10 and 20 year government bond yields
U.S. 10 year government bond yield minus U.S. 10 year inflation breakeven rate
Bloomberg Commodity Index
U.S. Dollar Index
Gold Volatility Index
Copper
AUD/JPY
AUD/THB
COP/USD
Austria’s ATX
Russia’s MOEX
And India’s NIFTY 50
Overbought (RSI > 70)
Russian 10 year bond yield
U.S. 10 year bond yield minus Australian 10 year bond yield
U.S. 10 year bond yield divided by Australian 10 year bond yield
Aluminium
Cocoa
Biodiesel
CRB Index
Brent Crude Oil
Coffee (Robusta)
AEX
Budapest
Italy’s MIB
TAIEX
And Turkiye’s BIST 100
The Overbought Quinella – Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)
U.S. 10 year bond yield minus German 10 year bond yield
Coffee (Arabica)
Tin
Silver in AUD and USD
Gold in AUD, CAD, CHF, EUR, GBP, USD and ZAR
Pakistan’s KSE equity index
Extremes “below” the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
IEF
IEI
SHY
Lumber
Urea (U.S. Gulf)
Oats
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
JPY/AUD
DKK/USD
HKD/USD
KRW/USD
SEK/USD
Oversold (RSI < 30)
Australia 10 year yield minus U.S. 10 year yield
Chinese 10 year government bond yields
Australian Coking Coal
Chinese Coking Coal
Lithium Hydroxide
Shanghai Rebar
The Oversold Quinella – Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)
None
Notes & Ideas:
My immediate suggestion is to compare last week’s edition to this one. Readers will note many changes.
It seemed as government bond yields rose, which is mostly true in Australia, USA, Great Britain, Japan, South Korea and New Zealand……
However, we also saw declining yields in Switzerland, Spain, Germany, France & China.
Last week, I wrote, “many yields are showing signs of breaking north of their recent sideways pattern”. This was certainly the case.
Bonds provided an equal amount of action this past week, with my spreads and bond ETF’s entering the list.
The big news in Equities was observing many indices leaving overbought territory as prices declined.
A few winner still managed to appear in this week’s list, albeit only several.
Oslo is in a 7 week winning streak, while Mexico’s main index broker its 4 week run of consecutive higher prices. The latter also posted an outside bearish reversal week.
Toronto’s TSX broke its 8 week winning streak and posted a bearish outside reversal week.
South Africa has risen for 4 weeks straight as has the TAIEX. The latter has climbed higher for 12 of the past 13 weeks.
And last week’s reference to those equity indices which posted bearish outside reversal week’s held true.
Commodities were mixed.
We saw strength in precious metals, base metals, softs and coals.
It is worthy to note that many commodities which appear in todays overbought section saw those extremes tickled earlier in the week, before easing off in the last couple days.
Iron Ore isn’t overbought.
Gold prices across various currencies remains overbought.
Interestingly, Platinum has risen 10% over the past 3 weeks while Gold’s advance (in USD) has been 8%.
Renewed media noise about the rise in oil, gold, silver and copper prices coincides with them trading at overbought extremes.
Coffee prices were amongst the largest gainers for the week, again. Robusta Coffee has risen 26% over the past 7 weeks.
While it remains oversold, China Coking broke is 7 week losing streak.
Rice broke its 6 week losing streak with a 7% rise, nearly halving the 15% decline seen during that declining trend.
Oats mostly recovered last week’s 7% decline.
Cotton has fallen for 5 straight weeks, inversely, Gasoline has risen for 5 consecutive weeks.
Cocoa has been overbought for 25 weeks, while putting together a recent 7 week winning streak.
Aluminium has risen for 7 straight weeks, rising 14% over that time.
And Lithium Hydroxide has now spent 40 consecutive weeks in weekly oversold territory, however it rose 8%.
Currencies extended last week’s activity with U.S. strength sending many reciprocals into oversold territory.
The effect of a rising USD, rendered weakest in the AUD and many others.
In its own right, the CAD was stronger.
The Yen was stronger against all, except the USD.
The Euro was weaker against everyone.
The British Pound was mixed for the week, again.
The BRL has fallen for 6 straight weeks against the USD.
And the Kiwi broke its 6 weeks of consecutive versus the Aussie.
The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;
Aluminium 1.7%, Rotterdam Coal 2.9%, Baltic Dry Index 6.2%, Cocoa 6.9%, Coffee 3.7%, JKM LNG in Yen 12.9%, Lithium 8.2%, Tin 15%, Newcastle Coal 2.7%, Orange Juice 2.6%, Palladium 5.2%, Platinum 6.5%, Shanghai Iron Ore 6.1%, Dutch TTF Gas 15.5%, Silver in AUD 3.3%, Silver in USD 1.4%, Gold in AUD 2.4%, Gold in USD 0.6%, Oats 6.1%, Rice 6.6%, Robusta Coffee 4.2%, KSE 2.8%, Oslo 1.8%, SET 1.5%, TAIEX 2%, FTSE 100 1.1%, Vietnam 1.7%, ASX Materials 2.9%, BIST 2% and the ASX Industrials rose 1.2%.
The group of largest decliners from the week included;
WTI Crude Oil (1.4%), Cotton (4.2%), Heating Oil (3.2%), Lumber (5.6%), Biodiesel (2.1%), Sugar (7%), Raw Sugar (1.7%), Urea U.S. Gulf (5.6%), Gasoil (2.7%), Urea Middle East (2.8%), Wheat (2%), Shanghai (1.6%), CSI 300 (2.6%), All Developed World ex USA (1.3%), KBW Bank Index (3.7%), China A50 (3%), DJ Industrials (2.7%), IBEX (2.1%), Indonesia (2.6%), S&P SmallCap 600 (2.9%), Russell 2000 (2.8%), Nasdaq Composite (0.5%), KRE Regional Banks (3.5%), S&P 400 Midcaps (2.9%), Mexico (2.6%), Nasdaq Biotechs (1.9%), SOX (1.5%), S&P 500 (1.6%), Nasdaq Transports (3.1%) and Toronto’s TSX fell 1.6%.
April 14, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
April 11, 2024 Leave a comment
It doesn’t matter if the March 2024 #UnitedKingdom inflation rate falls from 3.4% down to 3% or 2.6%……
This is small beans.
It is nearer the lower end of its travels.
The big call to make is when the #inflation rate is trading at ‘extremes’ to my illustrated moving average, appearing in the chart below.
Much like my American inflation note published yesterday, I think there is greater probability that #UK inflation rate should travel towards 5% rather than 1.8%……
and all that comes with it for interest rates and the equity prices of high growth (unprofitable) companies.
Incidentally, the U.K. inflation rate for March 2024 is due to be released on April 17th.
April 11, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
Karri Asset Advisors
March 24, 2024 Leave a comment
A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.
The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.
Extremes “above” the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations
US10 year minus Australian 10 year yield spread
US10 year divided by Australian 10 year yield spread
WTI Crude Oil
Copper
Tin
S&P GSCI
Brent Crude Oil
Silver in AUD, USD & EUR
Gold in USD
AUD/JPY
AUD/THB
FTSE 100
Overbought (RSI > 70)
Biodiesel
Robusta Coffee
AEX
Budapest
CAC 30
DAX
Dow Jones Industrial Average
Italy’s MIB
Nasdaq Composite
Nikkei 225
Stockholm
Philadelphia SOX
TAIEX
Nasdaq Transports
Toronto’s TSX
Vietnam
And the S&P 500 Index
The Overbought Quinella – Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)
Russian 10 year bond yield
Gold in AUD, CAD, EUR, GBP & CHF
Cocoa
IBEX
Extremes “below” the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
AU10Y – US10Y yield
Australian Coking Coal
CHF/AUD
Chinese RMB
INR/USD
Oversold (RSI < 30)
Chinese 10 year government bond yields
Lithium Hydroxide
The Oversold Quinella – Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)
None
Notes & Ideas:
Government bond yields mostly fell except for the Japanese 2’s and 5’s.
The Japanese 5’s winning streak extends to 7 weeks.
Russian 10 year yields have risen for 8 consecutive weeks.
The Chinese 10’s are the notable oversold extreme in this week’s list.
Equities were higher.
Shanghai is in a 6 week winning streak while the CSI 300 broke its 5 week advance.
Toronto’s has sneakily put together 6 straight rising weeks.
The DAX is in a 7 week winning streak, the MIB advance extends to 8 consecutive weeks.
The Nasdaq is 34% above its 2090 week moving average while the S&P 500 is 27% above the same measure.
Egypt’s 30 Index isn’t overbought anymore.
Spain’s IBEX has registered an overbought quinella as it trades at its highest point since June 2017.
The FTSE 100 returns to the overbought territory.
The CAC and DAX are still making new all-time highs.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average re-enters overbought territory.
And Italy’s MIB has traded to its highest point since May 2008.
Commodities were generally higher.
While Rotterdam Coal is in a 5 week winning streak, Most coal prices had a terrible week.
Crude Oil makes a return to overbought land, while Copper and Tin extend their stay there.
Rubber isn’t overbought this week.
Gold prices across various currencies remains overbought.
Cocoa has now spent 22 weeks in overbought land.
Nickel broke its 5 weeks winning streak.
Uranium and the Baltic Dry Index broke their 6 week losing streaks.
And Lithium Hydroxide has now spent 37 consecutive weeks in weekly oversold territory.
Currencies saw a firmer CAD again as was the USD.
The AUD was firmer against all except versus the Yen.
The Euro was mixed.
The Yen as did the Kiwi.
The latter is in a 4 week losing streak again the AUD.
The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;
Aluminium 2.8%, Cocoa 11.5%, LNG JKM in Yen 4%, Dutch TTF Gas 2.8%, Uranium 4%, Gold in CHF 2%, Wheat 5%, All World Developed ex USA 1.2%, AEX 2.9%, Austria 2.6%, KBW Bank 3.7%, DAX 1.5%, DJ Industrials 2%, DJ Transports 3.3%, IBEX 3.3%, Nasdaq Composite 2.9%, KOSPI 3.3%, S&P MidCap 400 2.2%, Nasdaq 100 3%, Nikkei 225 5.6%, Russell 2000 1.5%, SOX 3.2%, S&P 400 2.3%, TAIEX 2.8%, Nasdaq Transports 2.9%, FTSE 100 2.6%, ASX 200 1.3%, BIST 3.2% and the ASX Materials rose 2.4%
The group of largest decliners from the week included;
Australian Coking Coal (2.8%), China Coking Coal (2.8%), Rotterdam Coal (2%), Baltic Dry Index (5.5%), Cotton (2.6%), Lean Hogs (2.6%), Copper (3%), Heating Oil (2.4%), Tin (2.3%), Newcastle Coal (4.3%), Nickel (2%), Palladium (8.4%), Platinum (4.8%), Gasoil (1.8%), Silver (2%), Oats (2.1%), Rice (2.7%) and Egypt’s 30 equity index tanked 7.2%.
March 24, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
March 17, 2024 Leave a comment
A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.
The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.
Extremes “above” the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations
U.S. 3 month bill yield
Copper
Gasoline
Silver in AUD, EUR, JPY and CHF
Gold in USD, GBP , ZAR, CAD and EUR
Overbought (RSI > 70)
Biodiesel
Robusta Coffee
AEX
Budapest
CAC 30
DAX
Italy’s MIB
KLSE
Stockholm
And the S&P 500 Index
The Overbought Quinella – Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)
Russian 10 year bond yield
Gold in AUD, CHF & JPY
Cocoa
Rubber
Egypt 30 Index
TAIEX
Extremes “below” the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
Australian Coking Coal
Iron Ore
Oversold (RSI < 30)
Chinese 10 year government bond yields
Lithium Hydroxide
The Oversold Quinella – Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)
None
Notes & Ideas:
Government bond yields were mostly higher while many remain trendless.
All yields were lower, except for the Japanese, again.
Japanese 2’s eased away from overbought territory and broke its 8 week rising streak.
The Japanese 5’s winning streak extends to 6 weeks.
Russian 10 year yields have risen for 7 consecutive weeks.
The Chinese 10’s are the notable oversold extreme in this week’s list.
Equities were mixed. Most finished the week 1% of either of side of last weeks close.
Some European bourses continue their winning ways such as Spain, France and Italy as do the recently shunned Chinese indices.
While U.S. indices eased lower and some have commenced something resembling a retracement some weeks ago.
Australian indices were amongst the largest decliners.
The Shanghai Composite and the CSI 300 have put together a 5 week winning streak, the DAX is at 6 weeks, while the Philippines main index broke its 7 week winning streak and the S&P Midcaps snapped its 9 weeks run of advances.
As a result, the MidCap 400 isn’t overbought this week.
Copenhagen isn’t overbought either, nor the Nikkei 225, the NIFTY 50, the FTSE All World (developed ex-USA) index, SENSEX, the SOX and the Nasdaq Transports.
The Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq 100 aren’t overbought anymore either.
Toronto’s TSX is in a 5 week winning streak.
Vietnam’s main index is nearing overbought territory.
Mexico broke its 5 week losing streak.
Brazil’s BOVESPA has bucked the direction of most global bourses by falling 5.2% since its Christmas overbought reading.
Intra-week, Russia’s MOEX 10 made another all-time high but didn’t close there.
The S&P 500 is still overbought. This week’s decline of 0.1% means it has only declined for 4 weeks of the past 20 weeks.
The CAC and DAX are still making new all-time highs.
Spain’s IBEX is at its highest point since January 2018 and is nearing an interesting overbought scenario.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average took a vacation from its 13 week stay in overbought territory.
And Italy’s MIB has traded to its highest point since May 2008.
Commodities were generally higher.
Oils, distillates and most gases (except for Henry Hub Natural Gas) had a good week, which weigh heavily on the performance of the broader commodity tracking indices.
As a result, JKM LNG isn’t oversold this week.
Inversely, Henry Hub Natural Gas prices fell 8% to close at an all-time low. This is another example of a parabolic price move being thumped. I’m watching closely for developing strength in this downward trend. Should it gather steam, a visit to $1.20 wouldn’t be out of the question. That’s quite move from $11 from only 20 months ago.
While Gold prices took a breather, its price remains in overbought territory across various currencies.
AUD Gold remains 23% above its 200 week moving average.
Other precious metals had a good week too, with Palladium outpacing Silver.
Cocoa went super parabolic rising 25% for the week and has now spent 21 weeks in overbought land.
Coal was a loser again.
Raw Cane Sugar recovered all of last weeks decline.
Grains, Precious Metals and Industrial Metals were firmer.
Corn and Soybeans are not oversold anymore. In fact, Soybeans have risen for the past 3 weeks after snapping their recent 10 week losing streak.
Wheat is very close to an oversold reading.
Since its recent oversold reading, Nickel has risen for the past 5 weeks.
Uranium and the Baltic Dry Index are in 6 week losing streaks.
The former has fallen 22% during that streak.
Rotterdam Coal is in a 4 week winning streak.
I see a change in trend approaching for Urea prices.
And Lithium Hydroxide has now spent 36 consecutive weeks in weekly oversold territory.
Currencies saw a firmer CAD, EUR and USD.
The USD rose against everyone unless it was a Peso.
The Japanese Yen was weaker perhaps as capital markets continue to embrace risk, or is this some sort of divergence?
The Aussie fell against everyone except the Yen and Baht.
The DXY Index recovered more than half of last weeks decline.
And the USD broke its 5 week losing streak against the SEK.
The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;
Rotterdam Coal 2.2%, WTI Crude 4.1%, Lean Hogs 2.4%, Copper 5.9%, Heating Oil 3.6%, JKM LNG 3.8%, LNG in Yen 3.6%, Tin 3.4%, Cocoa 25.4%, Orange Juice 2.6%, Palladium 6.3%, Platinum 3.1%, Gasoline 7.5%, Biodiesel 2.4%, Sugar 4.6%, Cane Sugar 4.5%, SPGSCI 2.8%, CRB 2.9%, Dutch TTF Gas 2.4%, Brent Crude 4.2%, Gasoil 4%, CAC 1.7%, China A50 2.1%, MIB 1.6%, HSCEI 2.9%, Hang Seng 2.9%, IBEX 2.8%, Mexico 2.4%, Stockholm 1.9%, Chile 1.9%, Silver in AUD 4.6% and Silver in USD rose 3.6%.
The group of largest decliners from the week included;
Australian Coking Coal (5.3%), China Coking Coal (5.3%), Hot Rolled Coil Steel (2.7%), Lumber (2%), Newcastle Coal (4.7%), Natural Gas (8.3%), China Iron Ore (6.4%), S&P SmallCap 600 (1.8%), Russell 2000 (2.1%), Nasdaq Composite (0.7%), KRE Regional Banks (3.5%), S&P MidCap 400 (1%), Nasdaq Biotechs (1.2%), Nikkei 225 (2.5%), Nifty (2.1%), PSE (1.7%), SENSEX (2%), SOX (4%), ASX 200 (2.3%), ASX Materials (3.4%), ASX Industrials (2.7%), BIST (3.6%) and Uranium fell 5.9%.
March 17, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
rob zdravevski's blog 