Sell Gold / Buy Platinum

December 8, 2023 Leave a comment

I’ve been subtly chirping about my interest in Palladium and Platinum prices.

For those you like pairs trades, I see a Short Gold / Long Platinum opportunity.

While this may be sacrilege for those nutty gold bugs to read, I’m being rather objective.

The chart below shows Platinum and Gold plotted over each other while the lower study is the correlation coefficient.

Just because they are both precious metals, it doesn’t mean they move in tandem let alone correlated.

The rectangles show not too many moments when the correlation was close to 1.

Otherwise, there were many times when Platinum and Gold were negatively correlated.

December 8, 2023

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , ,

Waiting for my price in AUD Gold

July 1, 2023 Leave a comment

On March 25, 2023, I wrote a cautionary note suggesting selling AUD priced Gold. 

Sell AUD Gold exposure

That observation was viewed over a weekly basis.

Gold in AUD was trading at A$3,000 at the time.

Although today’s price of A$2,882 hardly resembles a collapse, my view to not chase prices at recent highs is validated. 

Now, taking a look at a much longer timeframe……on a monthly basis

the study shows the percentages that the Gold price (in AUD) is trading above its 50 month moving average where it simultaneously traded 2.5 standard deviations above its rolling monthly mean and also registered a monthly overbought RSI reading.

There have been 6 such notable moments over the past 15 years.

Whilst the AUD Gold has never been oversold in the past 15 years, there is a case to accumulate when it touches or trades below its 50 month moving average.

The recent (and current) price action tells me to wait for the AUD Gold price to converge towards the 50 month moving average, which is somewhere around the A$2,500 region.

At that point, I’ll analyse whether Gold (as priced in AUD) will have its time in the sun, again.

Until then, I think there is little merit in entering a long position.

July 1, 2023

by Rob Zdravevski

Karri Asset Advisors

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with ,

Re-visiting recent Sell Gold call

June 15, 2023 Leave a comment

On March 25th, 2023, I made a call to sell Gold exposure priced in Australian Dollars.

Sell AUD Gold exposure

The high on that day of trading was A$3,021…..for the next 2 months it barely budged above that price.

There made little sense to continue being exposed to risk hoping that Gold moved into higher stratospheres.

From that A$3,000 level, AUD Gold has now declined 6% to trade at A$2,834 at the time of writing this.

While 6% may seem trivial, it isn’t to gold producers and speculators in the futures market.

This follow up note doesn’t represent smugness rather it’s revisiting past decisions and opinions and provides validity to my work which suggested not chasing AUD priced Gold at those levels based on empirical and probability observations.

The odds said so.

Today, AUD Gold isn’t a buy either. It may be around A$2,660 but I’ll write about that later.

June 15, 2023

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with

The timing involved when buying bonds and fixed income

May 30, 2023 Leave a comment

In this note on March 16, 2023 (March 15, U.S. time), I suggested that shorter-term interest rates would start to rise when the Copper/Gold Ratio trades 2.5 standard deviations below its weekly mean and implies a poor moment of timing for those buying bonds.

Queuing off the Copper/Gold ratio for Interest Rates

As a follow up, the chart below shows what has happened to the U.S. 2 year bond yield since then.

Having risen from 3.9% to 4.68%, that extreme standard deviation low in the Copper/Gold Ratio did represent a ‘bull trap’ for bond buyers.

May 30, 2023

by Rob Zdravevski

Karri Asset Advisors

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

A$38 Silver does seem to be good enough

May 29, 2023 Leave a comment

Readers can search ‘silver’ on my blog for a trail of my calls made.

In January 2023, I said A$34 was OK and $38 would be a ceiling.

Silver in AUD has seen the ‘fat part of the trade’

Since that note in January 2023, AUD Silver traded from A$34 to A$31 and then had a run higher (along with other precious metals) but only to a high of A$38.50.

Indeed, $38 is or was a ceiling, especially when coupled with the recent fervour from the Gold and Silver bugs.

Incidentally, I also wrote about selling AUD Gold exposure in late March, 2023.

Since that note (2 months ago), Gold in AUD hasn’t made any headway while USD Gold has declined 6% from its peak.

Sell AUD Gold exposure

And in mid/late April 2023, I highlighted Platinum’s run……It has since fallen 6%.

Gold isn’t the only precious metal

Today, I have no interest in holding any precious metals.

Sadly, someone bought Newcrest Mining at A$30.00 per share in amongst this hubbub, to only see the stock now trading at A$26.00 and subject to the prospects of acquirer Newmont’s stock price.

May 29, 2023

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with ,

Gold isn’t the only precious metal

April 18, 2023 Leave a comment

For the gold bugs who are celebrating a 10% rise over the past 2 months, Platinum has soared 22% over the same time.

Platinum remains at a $1,000 per once discount to Gold when it tended to trade a premium for decades prior.

It’s something to place on your watchlist.

April 18, 2023

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , ,

Waiting for notable buying moment in Oil

April 8, 2023 Leave a comment

An overbought Gold/Oil Ratio has provided 14 absolute notable buy signals in WTI Crude over the past 30 years.

It is not doing so currently.

This ratio also assists the anthesis for Gold (in USD)

April 8, 2023

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with ,

Current AUD Gold price view

December 16, 2022 Leave a comment

My read of the gold price, specifically priced in AUD is;

while there are no extreme readings present either side of the pendulum,

the daily trend is turning bearish, albeit its embryonic, 

while the medium term upward trend is not under full steam.

This tells me that initiating long positions is merely participatory as the price is in ‘no-mans land’.

There is growing bias for lower prices in AUD priced Gold towards the A$2,420 level, which is approximately 9% lower than today’s A$2,650…..

however I’ll need to see certain support levels pierced in order to confirm any strength in a developing bearish trend.

While a move above A$2,690 begins to dilute this view.

December 16, 2022

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with ,

A ‘trading’ high in Gold

November 15, 2022 Leave a comment

I think the Gold price is at a ‘trading’ high.

Gold priced in AUD needs to break above A$2,695 to make a new ‘higher high’ and extend the current upward trend.

If not, the trend loses steam and wanes.

Currently, it’s A$2,635.

Then downside risk lies around A$2,435 (+/- $50).

USD priced Gold (currently US$1,771) needs to trade above US$1,808 to increase probability of the bullish trend continuing.

If it can’t breach that ceiling, it’ll prove to be a headfake and expect a re-test of the recent US$1,617 lows.

November 15, 2022

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with ,

Convergence is also happening

September 14, 2022 Leave a comment

Here is a story of convergence to the mean, not reversion.

The chart and graphics below show the Gold price (in USD) trading sideways for 2 years while the 200 week moving average has risen $300 or improved by more than 20%.

It has converged towards the oscillating price of Gold which has spent a couple years digesting and consolidating.

I’m preparing for a further 4% swoon from its current $1,706, down to around the $1,640 mark.

September 14, 2022

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , ,

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