Trying to hear what's not being said
December 3, 2024 Leave a comment
I’m revising my entry price for SHEL.L higher than the 2170p level suggested in this April 2024 note….to 2390p
p.s. I haven’t had an oil related ‘long’ for 3 years but I’m preparing for it.
December 3, 2024
rob@karriasset.com.au
November 28, 2024 Leave a comment
Currently, the #oil & #gas industry has the least amount of rigs in operation since February 2016.
(not withstanding the 2020 supply shock)
I have circled those moments in the attached #Brent #Crude price chart.
November 28, 2024
rob@karriasset.com.au
March 18, 2024 Leave a comment
Natural Gas prices are around $1.70.
What if they fall to $1.20…..well, it could present at attractive asymmetric long entry point.
In this week’s edition of Macro Extremes I wrote…….
Henry Hub Natural Gas prices fell 8% to close at an all-time low. This is another example of a parabolic price move being thumped. I’m watching closely for developing strength in this downward trend. Should it gather steam, a visit to $1.20 wouldn’t be out of the question. That’s quite move from $11 from only 20 months ago.
#Naturalgas traded to $11 when the market thought Europe would freeze as a result of a Russian gas squeeze.
With such an extraordinary low price, such cheap #gas makes renewable energy not so feasible and reiterates Natural Gas role through any process of the #energy transition.
March 18, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
Karri Asset Advisors
rob@karriasset.com.au
February 18, 2024 Leave a comment
The Henry Hub Natural Gas futures contract price traded to an all time low this past week.
The circle in the chart below denotes the moment when the world thought Europe was going to freeze to death.
February 18, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
October 18, 2022 Leave a comment
Who would’ve thought that Gas prices could go down, let alone halve.
Well, the Dutch TTF Gas price has as has the Japan Korea LNG Marker (JKM) price.
It may seem perverse that this can happen but not really to others.
Henry Hub Natural Gas has nearly halved from its $10 peak.
Well, its currently $6 and nearing that $5 call I made in this note;
Market forces tend to fix extreme moves in prices.
October 18, 2022
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
August 31, 2022 Leave a comment
Anecdotally, the most euphoric noise that I hear globally surrounds three markets, being LNG, Thermal Coal and Lithium/Spodumene.
Especially amongst gas prices, I can’t hear anyone making a case for a moderation of prices.
The herd is all huddled together on the same life rafts.
Sure, prices can go higher but I dare you to initiate a new ‘long’ position.
My commentary is to heed warning.
The technicals and the spikes in price action are pointing to extremes which I think provide a terrible risk/reward skew for any recent or new entrants to these markets.
Producers and Sellers of such commodities would be well advised to lock in prices.
Buyers should elect taking a calculated risk of probability and not commit to fixing in those higher prices.
Owners of listed securities exposed to these sectors are doing themselves an injustice if they are not acknowledging the speculative fervour, let alone pondering taking the ‘fat part of the trade’.
The charts below show prices being Overbought, trading to 3 standard deviations and stratospheric miles above their 200 week moving averages.
Although one day doesn’t make a season, the Dutch TTF Natural Gas and Japan/Korean LNG Market prices are down 25% and 15% respectively, thus far, thus week.
August 31, 2022
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
October 28, 2021 Leave a comment
One month ago, do you remember hearing that European Gas prices were soaring higher?
It was all across the financial media.
Since then, that price was fallen 40%.
It’s funny how you don’t hear this news in the media.
Conserve your energy and mental bandwidth.
Just be careful being sucked into the noise vortex and the financial media’s chosen narrative which only lasts a day or two.
During all of that, some dill paid a high of EUR 130 per megawatt hour.
October 28, 2021
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
October 13, 2021 Leave a comment
I’m advising clients to tune in where the noise is and where the herd is gathering.
Albeit, this is subjective and certainly more art than science, it’s important to identify the “crowded trade” and asking yourself if you are about to be the marginal buyer.
For example,
“everyone” is going Long Crude Oil, Natural/LNG Gas and Coal.
and “nobody” wants to buy Chinese equities nor Gold.
There is merit considering a contrarian result.
With Brent Crude Oil currently $83, I ask myself if it rises $20 or falls $20 from here?
In the coming months, I say it sees $63 rather $103.
October 13, 2021
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
October 7, 2021 Leave a comment
Natural Gas prices in Europe have risen 7 fold in the past 7 months.
Bitcoin hasn’t done that……just saying!
#oldschool
On a more serious note, beware of parabolic price moves.
Watch but don’t play.
If you own gas which you can deliver into Rotterdam……sell it.
It’s a sellers market.
This price should halve, quick smart.
October 7, 2021
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
October 7, 2021 Leave a comment
What a difference a day makes, although one day doesn’t make a trend.
Overnight WTI Crude, Brent Crude, Heating Oil, Gasoline all fell 2%. Natural Gas fell 10%.
What is more important is last night’s trading session produced a bearish outside reversal day in all of mentioned commodities. This is where prices traded outside the previous day’s range, meaning today’s high and low was higher and lower than yesterdays range and the closing price was below yesterdays. It’s a bit more bearish because today’s close was lower than yesterday’s intra-day low.
September 7, 2021
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
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