Long Oil is crowded

I’m advising clients to tune in where the noise is and where the herd is gathering.

Albeit, this is subjective and certainly more art than science, it’s important to identify the “crowded trade” and asking yourself if you are about to be the marginal buyer.

For example,

“everyone” is going Long Crude Oil, Natural/LNG Gas and Coal.

and “nobody” wants to buy Chinese equities nor Gold.

There is merit considering a contrarian result.

With Brent Crude Oil currently $83, I ask myself if it rises $20 or falls $20 from here?

In the coming months, I say it sees $63 rather $103.

October 13, 2021

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

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