Trying to hear what's not being said
June 26, 2025 Leave a comment
The Euro is trading at a rare pricing extreme (according to my metrics and work) compared to the U.S. Dollar, seen for the 7th time in 25 years.
Inversely, the U.S. Dollar is at a monumental low against the EUR.
Europeans should be buying American assets, should they think their capital is either welcomed or will be treated well there…….
June 26, 2025
rob@karriasset.com.au
April 24, 2025 Leave a comment
Enough for the Euro, for now.
Here are the 5 moments over the past 10 years when the Euro has traded at particular extremes against the U.S. Dollar.
April 24, 2025
rob@karriasset.com.au
March 13, 2025 Leave a comment
#AUDEUR The Aussie Dollar is approaching its 8th moment over the past 25 years when it’s trading at extreme lows (across my various metrics) against the Euro.
And so Australian assets are also on sale in EUR terms.
Expect to see European private equity firms scouring through ASX listed securities.
March 13, 2025
rob@karriasset.com.au
December 11, 2024 Leave a comment
In real #currency news, the GBP/EUR looks like running up to the 1.2280 region, but its close enough as it approaches an interim extreme amidst a weak trend.
Time to sell British #Pounds and buy #Euro, in case you are buying an airplane from Airbus…..
Incidentally, the Euro’s weakness against the USD persists, even after it traded at an oversold extreme some 3 weeks ago. This downtrend is exhibiting strength.
December 11, 2024
rob@karriasset.com.au
June 30, 2023 Leave a comment
I think that the ‘fat part’ of the Euro advance against the Yen has been seen.
Today’s price is 157.26
Not to be relied on in isolation but this study below shows the percentages which EUR/JPY is trading above its 200 week moving average……and when combined some other studies, it increases the probability of my belief.
Beyond your standard FX trade (currency conversion) this also means European customers and buyers of Japanese parts, components and product should order and pay for their Japanese products ‘tout suite’.
They should be at their cheapest prices seen in the past 3 years, even when considering Japan’s inflation rate of a ‘mere’ 3.2%.
June 30, 2023
by Rob Zdravevski
Karri Asset Advisors
rob@karriaseet.com.au
April 28, 2023 Leave a comment
2 weeks ago, when the EUR/USD was trading at 1.1060, my view was that it’s good enough’ to sell EUR and buy USD.
The chart below shows a little tuning to this call.
A spurt to 1.1200 (as marked by circles) would see the EUR/USD mean revert upwards to its 200 week moving average, likely register a weekly overbought reading and trade to standard deviations above its rolling weekly mean.
It’s still good enough.
April 28, 2023
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
September 12, 2022 Leave a comment
And the corporate effect of what todays earlier currencies post translates to…..
Aussie companies selling products into Europe, the UK and Japan have been seeing weaker receipts, while those selling to U.S. customers or in USD denominated products (commodities) are booking handsome profits on favourable currency differentiation.
Japanese and European assets are considered cheap for holders of Australian Dollars while Americans (and their corporations) may see Australian assets as being ‘on sale.
Expect those respective benefits to wane while these ‘extreme’ currency movements correct and consolidate.
On a side note, the almighty strength of the U.S. Dollar seems to be a surprise……
2 years ago, I wrote this note when I remember reports of the pending death of the U.S. Dollar to be palpable.
Today, there doesn’t seem to be an opposite case against the bullish prospects of the U.S. Dollar.
September 12, 2022
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
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