Trying to hear what's not being said
January 18, 2025 Leave a comment
The #Canadian Dollar is at its lowest weekly and monthly closing price since April 2003.
On a weekly basis, it is trading at one of my extremes.
Not yet on a monthly basis,
but there lows in the #loonie correlates to the overall #commodity complex.
January 18, 2025
rob@karriasset.com.au
September 2, 2024 Leave a comment
When the CAD/CHF is declining, ‘they’ are selling the Loonie and huddling into the safety of the Swissie.
This happens when ‘we’ don’t fancy a risky environment. That also means risker assets such as equities are also being aggressively disposed.
While not to be used in isolation, the study below shows 16 moments (over the past 40 years) when the CAD/CHF registered a Monthly RSI reading of less than 33.
When it does, perhaps ponder increasing your asset allocation towards equities.
The nuance is which equities (market) to buy.
Currently, it’s close but not there yet.
And remember, currencies don’t lie or tell stories.
September 2, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
July 27, 2024 Leave a comment
The Canadian Dollar will appear in some ‘extreme’ categories in tomorrows edition of Macro Extremes.
The study below shows the CAD/USD dancing with the Bloomberg Commodity Index and the Canadian Inflation Rate.
Incidentally, that Canadian inflation rate has eased from 8% to its current 2.7%.
July 27, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
October 17, 2022 Leave a comment
A Weekly Oversold reading in the AUD/CAD signals a reasonable buying opportunity in the ASX 200
One hiccup occurred in September 2018 denoted by the red vertical line.
The AUD/CAD isn’t Oversold at the moment, nor is the ASX 200
October 17, 2022
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
May 6, 2021 Leave a comment
I’m watching currencies a little more closely this week and their subsequent relationship to commodity prices.
Currently, the Canadian Dollar (vs the USD) is registering an Overbought extreme not seen since September 2017 and again in April of 2011.
Furthermore, the AUD/USD (0.7730) is showing trending signs of moving lower.
Today, the AUD/JPY (84.53) has posted a bearish outside reversal day.
Should the 2 latter currencies confirm their new downtrends, expect to see lower commodity prices.
The consensus and herd are all long commodities at the moment and not many think they can go lower.
An unwinding of some historically ‘long’ contract positions being seen in the futures markets could turn ugly, especially if the Loonie (CAD) trades below 0.7950.
May 6, 2021
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
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