Currencies are in focus again

I’m watching currencies a little more closely this week and their subsequent relationship to commodity prices.

Currently, the Canadian Dollar (vs the USD) is registering an Overbought extreme not seen since September 2017 and again in April of 2011.

Furthermore, the AUD/USD (0.7730) is showing trending signs of moving lower.

Today, the AUD/JPY (84.53) has posted a bearish outside reversal day.

Should the 2 latter currencies confirm their new downtrends, expect to see lower commodity prices.

The consensus and herd are all long commodities at the moment and not many think they can go lower.

An unwinding of some historically ‘long’ contract positions being seen in the futures markets could turn ugly, especially if the Loonie (CAD) trades below 0.7950.

May 6, 2021

by Rob Zdravevski

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