Trying to hear what's not being said
March 13, 2025 Leave a comment
#AUDEUR The Aussie Dollar is approaching its 8th moment over the past 25 years when it’s trading at extreme lows (across my various metrics) against the Euro.
And so Australian assets are also on sale in EUR terms.
Expect to see European private equity firms scouring through ASX listed securities.
March 13, 2025
rob@karriasset.com.au
August 4, 2024 Leave a comment
The only thing you are forced to decide is to choose a #currency.
This is applicable when making, settling or holding an investment.
Holding cash is also an investment and many of the ‘truly’ global investors also ponder which (mix of) currency to hold their cash in.
Recently, I have highlighting the extreme weakness at which the #Japanese Yen has been trading at and more specifically, the Australian Dollar’s strength again the Yen (which is a good indicator of investors risk appetite).
Prompts to buy the Yen appeared in my weekly macro extremes publication and in this recent “Bigger Calls” newsletter.
https://mailchi.mp/karriasset/the-bigger-calls-q3-2024
If I chose the worst entry point (over the past 5-7 weeks) to have bought #Yen and sold #AUD, the current return would resemble at least 8% over the past 3 weeks or perhaps 11% if your timing was impeccable.
I think that is a bit more than interest earned in an Australian term deposit?
As a standalone #FX trade with the AUD/JPY trading at 95.40, it is now in the category of “good enough”.
August 4, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
May 16, 2024 Leave a comment
Whilst the AUD/USD is currently in a medium and longer term upward trend, I think that it looks constrained around the 0.6750 – 0.6722 mark.
My read is that it needs make a ‘higher high’. If not, the AUD/USD will continue its digestive and consolidation pattern lower.
and so….it would go for commodities and bond yields.
May 16, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
April 26, 2024 Leave a comment
Its the 4th time in 10 years that the Australian Dollar #AUD has traded a) at a certain percentage above my long term moving average while b) simultaneously registering an overbought weekly reading and also c) trading at stretched standard deviations above its rolling weekly mean……against the Japanese #JPY Yen.
#AUDJPY
I like watching this currency pair as an indicator of risk appetite.
April 26, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
February 29, 2024 Leave a comment
I think a bit more higher before selling GBP for AUD becomes a good idea.
February 29, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
October 11, 2022 Leave a comment
The next and perhaps last point for the AUD/USD in this last downward leg sits around 0.6210 (+/- 20 basis points)
The AUD/USD is entering a 5th moment of being Oversold in the past 8 years.
This can be paraphrased by saying we are in the vicinity and ‘it’s good enough’.
So, I’m selling some USD and buying AUD.
This currency low and pending reversal or reversion will also has have affect on assets such as Copper, Oil and Gold.
October 11, 2022
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
September 24, 2022 Leave a comment
3 days ago, I wrote that Oil needed a quick drop of ‘$2 or $3’ in order to extend some strength in oil’s current downtrend.
WTI Crude fell $4.75 on Friday, closing its trading week at $78.74
Equally, the AUD/USD exhibited expected weakness during Friday’s session. It closed at 0.6531.
So, I’ll watch for how the AUD/USD and WTI Crude symbiotically test their next respective levels of 0.6464 and $77.50, as neither ‘daily’ downtrends are confirming continuing strength.
Hint: probability is rising that we are at the tail-end (+/- 3%-6%) of the downdraft in both assets.
September 24, 2022
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
September 22, 2022 Leave a comment
On September 7, 2022, I dispensed comments to clients about my views on the AUD/USD.
I cited how perverse it was that the Aussie was strong versus the EUR, GBP and JPY….
while it continued to weaken against the USD.
This so called perverse scenario is because you don’t generally see AUD strength against other G-8 currencies whilst it inversely exhibits weakness against the USD.
Then, I thought it was appropriate for operational businesses (whether requiring to do so physically or for hedging purposes) is to…….
1) take your strong AUD and buy either GBP, EUR or JPY (the Aussie has since weakened 1.4% against these crosses)
but then…..
2) prepare to sell your strong USD and buy AUD
Back then (Sept 7th), the AUDUSD was trading at 0.6717.
My advice said that it needs to trade below 0.6680 if it is to make a move to 0.6464.
But I noted that the AUD/USD is within the process of being in the lower quintile (the last legs) of the larger downtrend which commenced at 0.7600 in April 2022.
Now, I think it’s time to prepare for the 2nd piece of that previous commentary.
Overnight, the AUD/USD broke below the 0.6680 level mentioned.
At the time of writing it is now trading at 0.6590.
It has weakened 2.6% since September 7th, 2022.
The velocity of the downtrend is increasing, albeit slightly.
However we are nearing interim support of 0.6560
I still see the 0.6460 region as major support.
My work and probability suggests locking in hedges or actually Selling USD / Buying AUD around this 0.6580 – 0.6460 mark is prudent.
A visit to 0.6340 would be an outlier 4 standard deviation, only seen twice in the past 20 years.
September 22, 2022
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
June 28, 2021 Leave a comment
And as a follow up to the previous Brent Crude oil post,
the chart below may tell us what happens to the Australian Dollar compared to the U.S. Dollar…..
should Brent Crude decline
June 28, 2021
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
rob zdravevski's blog 