Australia is on sale
December 19, 2024 Leave a comment
I don’t think the bottom in the AUD/USD is in yet but its close.
Holding 0.6170 is a requisite.
Irrespective, Australia is on sale.
December 19, 2024
rob@karriasset.com.au
AUD/USD remains sideways
May 16, 2024 Leave a comment
Whilst the AUD/USD is currently in a medium and longer term upward trend, I think that it looks constrained around the 0.6750 – 0.6722 mark.
My read is that it needs make a ‘higher high’. If not, the AUD/USD will continue its digestive and consolidation pattern lower.
and so….it would go for commodities and bond yields.
May 16, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
Now, AUD/USD is full
December 29, 2023 Leave a comment
In late August 2023, I wrote that the AUD/USD should hold the 0.63/0.64 mark…..and that I didn’t believe the pundits calls back then that it would trade to 60 cents.
It’s lowest weekly closing price was 0.6295.
4 months later, the AUDUSD is now trading at 0.6870 which is 2.5 standard deviations above its weekly mean.
If the strength of the current uptrend wanes, the AUD/USD will lose steam between its current price and 0.70000.
It’s good enough. So far, this has been a 9% move within those 4 months.
Also likely to hamper its progress {sic} will include those same ‘wealth management’ pundits prediction of a 75 cents price.
This advance in the AUD (versus the USD) had a corollary to the ‘risk-on’ feeling that markets exhibited.
It’s pending exhaustion will have the opposite.
December 29, 2023
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
Time to watch the AUD again
June 10, 2023 Leave a comment
There is more to this analysis, but the chart and notations below are keeping simple.
Today, the AUD/USD needs to break that most immediate previous high of 0.6818, but I think it’ll peak and exhaust itself at 0.6805 (+/- 10bps)
Watching this currency cross along with the AUD/JPY could provide an interesting analog and correlation to ‘risk’ and a queue on the Nasdaq 100.
June 10, 2023
by Rob Zdravevski
Karri Asset Advisors
rob@karriasset.com.au
Crude Oil and AUD/USD watch
September 24, 2022 Leave a comment
3 days ago, I wrote that Oil needed a quick drop of ‘$2 or $3’ in order to extend some strength in oil’s current downtrend.
WTI Crude fell $4.75 on Friday, closing its trading week at $78.74
Equally, the AUD/USD exhibited expected weakness during Friday’s session. It closed at 0.6531.
So, I’ll watch for how the AUD/USD and WTI Crude symbiotically test their next respective levels of 0.6464 and $77.50, as neither ‘daily’ downtrends are confirming continuing strength.
Hint: probability is rising that we are at the tail-end (+/- 3%-6%) of the downdraft in both assets.
September 24, 2022
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
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