Trying to hear what's not being said
March 13, 2025 Leave a comment
#AUDEUR The Aussie Dollar is approaching its 8th moment over the past 25 years when it’s trading at extreme lows (across my various metrics) against the Euro.
And so Australian assets are also on sale in EUR terms.
Expect to see European private equity firms scouring through ASX listed securities.
March 13, 2025
rob@karriasset.com.au
December 19, 2024 Leave a comment
I don’t think the bottom in the AUD/USD is in yet but its close.
Holding 0.6170 is a requisite.
Irrespective, Australia is on sale.
December 19, 2024
rob@karriasset.com.au
August 5, 2024 Leave a comment
Worried? Risk averse?
That’s when investors huddle in the Swiss Franc or the Japanese Yen…..inversely they dispose of their Australian Dollars.
We are approaching the 7th time (in the past 30 years) that such defensive huddling and perhaps maximum risk aversion has occurred.
The attached monthly study shows that when the CHF/AUD simultaneously registers a monthly overbought reading, trades at 2.5 standard deviations above its rolling average and at a notable percentage above its 50 month moving average…….
you don’t throw away your equities, in a wholesale manner.
In fact, consider the antithesis.
August 5, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
August 4, 2024 Leave a comment
The only thing you are forced to decide is to choose a #currency.
This is applicable when making, settling or holding an investment.
Holding cash is also an investment and many of the ‘truly’ global investors also ponder which (mix of) currency to hold their cash in.
Recently, I have highlighting the extreme weakness at which the #Japanese Yen has been trading at and more specifically, the Australian Dollar’s strength again the Yen (which is a good indicator of investors risk appetite).
Prompts to buy the Yen appeared in my weekly macro extremes publication and in this recent “Bigger Calls” newsletter.
https://mailchi.mp/karriasset/the-bigger-calls-q3-2024
If I chose the worst entry point (over the past 5-7 weeks) to have bought #Yen and sold #AUD, the current return would resemble at least 8% over the past 3 weeks or perhaps 11% if your timing was impeccable.
I think that is a bit more than interest earned in an Australian term deposit?
As a standalone #FX trade with the AUD/JPY trading at 95.40, it is now in the category of “good enough”.
August 4, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
May 16, 2024 Leave a comment
Whilst the AUD/USD is currently in a medium and longer term upward trend, I think that it looks constrained around the 0.6750 – 0.6722 mark.
My read is that it needs make a ‘higher high’. If not, the AUD/USD will continue its digestive and consolidation pattern lower.
and so….it would go for commodities and bond yields.
May 16, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
April 26, 2024 Leave a comment
Its the 4th time in 10 years that the Australian Dollar #AUD has traded a) at a certain percentage above my long term moving average while b) simultaneously registering an overbought weekly reading and also c) trading at stretched standard deviations above its rolling weekly mean……against the Japanese #JPY Yen.
#AUDJPY
I like watching this currency pair as an indicator of risk appetite.
April 26, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
February 29, 2024 Leave a comment
I think a bit more higher before selling GBP for AUD becomes a good idea.
February 29, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
February 12, 2024 Leave a comment
The currency markets are currently telling me that the mood is “risk-off” which opposes (and somewhat belligerent) the mood of ‘glamour’ equity indices barrelling higher.
The Aussie Dollar is aimless with a bias towards lower prices.
Specifically against the USD, I see it visiting the 0.6350 region and ultimately holding 0.6150 (+/- 30 pips).
There is similar pattern recognition in the #AUD/JPY and the AUD/CHF.
February 12, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
#riskmanagement
December 29, 2023 Leave a comment
In late August 2023, I wrote that the AUD/USD should hold the 0.63/0.64 mark…..and that I didn’t believe the pundits calls back then that it would trade to 60 cents.
It’s lowest weekly closing price was 0.6295.
4 months later, the AUDUSD is now trading at 0.6870 which is 2.5 standard deviations above its weekly mean.
If the strength of the current uptrend wanes, the AUD/USD will lose steam between its current price and 0.70000.
It’s good enough. So far, this has been a 9% move within those 4 months.
Also likely to hamper its progress {sic} will include those same ‘wealth management’ pundits prediction of a 75 cents price.
This advance in the AUD (versus the USD) had a corollary to the ‘risk-on’ feeling that markets exhibited.
It’s pending exhaustion will have the opposite.
December 29, 2023
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
June 10, 2023 Leave a comment
There is more to this analysis, but the chart and notations below are keeping simple.
Today, the AUD/USD needs to break that most immediate previous high of 0.6818, but I think it’ll peak and exhaust itself at 0.6805 (+/- 10bps)
Watching this currency cross along with the AUD/JPY could provide an interesting analog and correlation to ‘risk’ and a queue on the Nasdaq 100.
June 10, 2023
by Rob Zdravevski
Karri Asset Advisors
rob@karriasset.com.au
rob zdravevski's blog 