Trying to hear what's not being said
June 21, 2024 Leave a comment
3 years I published a couple posts about IGO Group which is an Australian #lithium and #nickel mining company.
Today, I’m highlighting an extreme seen only 4 times in the past 14 years.
June 21, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
#IGOGroup
June 16, 2024 Leave a comment
A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.
The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.
* denotes multiple week inclusion
Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
Spanish, French, Greek and Italian 10 year government bond yields
Natural Gas
India’s Nifty and Sensex indices
Overbought (RSI > 70)
Brazilian 10 year government bond yield *
Biodiesel *
Rubber *
AEX *
KSE
S&P 500
and Taiwan’s TAEIX *
The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)
Nasdaq Composite
Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX)
Nasdaq 100
Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
Australian 10 year minus Australian 2 year government bond yield spread *
Australian 10 year minus Australian 5 year government bond yield spread *
U.S. 10 year inflation break-even rate
U.S. 5 year inflation break-even rate
Lean Hogs
CAD/GBP *
COP/USD
EUR/GBP
DJ Transports Index
BOVESPA *
Mexico *
Indonesia’s IDX
And Thailand’s SET equity index *
Oversold (RSI < 30)
Chilean 2 year government bond yield *
North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel *
U.S. Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel *
Lumber *
Lithium Hydroxide *
BRL/USD
PHP/USD *
The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)
RMB/USD
MXN/USD
Notes & Ideas:
Government bond yields were mostly lower, again and notably so.
While readers will see a few European yields in the overbought extremes category; those moments were seen earlier in the week.
Yields have been easing lately, which has been commensurably seen with the Copper/Gold Ratio declining for the past 4 consecutive weeks.
German 5’s and 10’s had outside bearish reversal weeks.
Chilean 2 year yields have fallen for 8 consecutive weeks. Their oversold reading may lead the world in a trough in yields.
The U.S. 10 year yield minus German 10 year yield spread snapped its 8 week declining streak.
And Japanese yields declined for another week.
Equities were mostly weaker, as seen in the All-World ex-USA Index’s decline of 2.4%.
The exception was the Nasdaq, SOX, TAEIX and the S&P 500.
All 4 indices appear in overbought extreme categories, as do India’s Sensex and Nifty.
Amazingly, the Nasdaq 100 has soared 15% in the past 8 weeks.
France’s CAC and Italy’s MIB had a terrible week, both sinking 6%.
The Shanghai Composite, CSI 300, ATX, Bovespa, Helsinki, SET, TSX and the ASX XMJ are in 4 week losing streaks.
While, the Nasdaq Transports Index and FTSE 100 are in 5 week losing streaks.
Budapest and Amsterdam are at all-time highs.
Commodities were mixed.
Cocoa, Oil, Livestock, Gases, Rice and Urea gained the most.
Cocoa has risen 37% over the past 4 weeks of its new winning streak.
While Robusta Coffee snapped its 4 weeks of consecutive advance.
Coal, Aluminium, Nickel were amongst the weakest performers for the week, again.
Lumber and Steel prices remain oversold for a few weeks now. I’ll presume this is a positive for construction industry?
Some grains were weaker too.
And Lithium Hydroxide has now spent 48 consecutive weeks in weekly oversold territory.
Currencies continue to provide action.
The Aussie was higher.
The CHF/AUD has a 4 week rising streak.
The Euro was weaker as was the Yen.
And the PHP/USD broke its 5 week losing streak.
The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;
Baltic Dry Index 3.6%, Cocoa 5.9%, WTI Crude Oil 3.9%, Lean Hogs 4.9%, Heating Oil 4.9%, Cattle 3.4%, LNG in Yen 8.8%, Tin 1.9%, Newcastle Coal 1.6%, Sugar 2.3%, S&P GSCI 1.9%, Dutch TTF Gas 6.8%, Urea U.S. Gulf 5.1%, Brent Crude 3.9%, Gasoil 5.5%, Gold in CAD 1.5%, Gold in EUR 2.6%, Gold in GBP 2%, Gold in USD 1.7%, Rice 3.5%, Nasdaq Composite 3.2%, Pakistan’s KSE 4%, Nasdaq 100 3.5%, SOX 5.9%, S&P 500 1.6%, BIST 3.3% and the TAEIX rose 3%.
The group of largest decliners from the week included;
Aluminium (2.7%), China Cokign Coal (1.9%), Cotton (2.2%), Lumber (2.4%), Nickel (2.7%), Nickel MCX (5.6%), Palladium (2.7%), Robusta Coffee (3.7%), Oats (5.8%), Wheat (2.6%), All World ex-USA (2.4%), ATX (3.4%), KBW Bank Index (2.6%), CAC (6.2%), DAX (3%), MIB (5.8%), HSCEI (2.1%), HAng Seng (2.3%), IBEX (3.6%), IDX (2.7%), S&P SmallCap 600 (2.1%), KRE Regional Banks (2.3%), MCX (2.1%), Oslo (2.2%), Copenhagen (2.4%), Helsinki (2.2%), Stockholm (2.4%), PSE (2.1%), SET (2%), SMI (1.7%), Chile (1.7%), XJO (1.7%), ASX Materials (4.3%), ASX Industrials (2.4%) and the ASX Small Caps fell 2.2%.
June 16, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
June 13, 2024 Leave a comment
It has been 2.5 years since the Nasdaq 100 appeared in my weekly Macro Extremes newsletter
It is a likely addition to the quinella of overbought extremes category in this weekend’s edition.
Subscribe to the Macro Extremes newsletter on LinkedIn https://lnkd.in/gTQ6vjw4
June 13, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
June 10, 2024 Leave a comment
One chapter in the upcoming great bond yield mean reversion……
“Real” interest rates are at same levels seen 20 years ago, as represented by the U.S. 10 year bond minus 10 year inflation break-even rate.
They are also at the same levels seen in 2007 and 2008.
It’s the anti-thesis of the returns available (or money lost) in #bonds during the 2020 and 2021 TINA (“There Is No Alternative”) era for equities.
I’m fancying public bonds, not “private credit”.
June 10, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
June 9, 2024 Leave a comment
A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.
The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.
* denotes multiple week inclusion
Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
AUD/ZAR
Dutch TTF Gas *
Overbought (RSI > 70)
Brazilian 10 year government bond yield
Biodiesel *
Rubber *
AEX
KLSE
and Taiwan’s TAEIX
The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)
Robusta Coffee *
USD/MXN
Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
Australian 10 year minus Australian 2 year government bond yield spread *
Australian 10 year minus Australian 5 year government bond yield spread
Heating Oil
Iron Ore CFR China
CAD/EUR
CAD/GBP
BOVESPA
Mexico
MOEX
And Thailand’s SET equity index
Oversold (RSI < 30)
Chilean 2 year government bond yield *
North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel *
U.S. Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel *
Lumber *
Lithium Hydroxide *
PHP/USD *
The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)
BRL/USD
MXN/USD
Notes & Ideas:
Government bond yields were mostly lower.
As a result, last week’s oversold entries are no longer.
The exception is the Brazilian 10’s are back being overbought.
Chilean 2 year yields have fallen for 7 consecutive weeks. Their oversold reading may lead the world in a trough in yields.
We saw a large decline in Japanese yields across the curve.
U.S. 10 year yield minus German 10 year yield spread is in a 8 week declining streak.
And the Copper/Gold ratio has fallen for the past 3 weeks.
Equities were mixed.
While may indices spent the week between +/- 0.5% – 0.8% from last weeks close.
Budapest and Amsterdam are at all-time highs.
Several more indices dropped out of overbought territory, while a few traded to some overbought extremes.
S&P SmallCap 600, the Russell 2000, Tel Aviv 25 and Oslo performed a bearish outside reversal week.
And Switzerland’s SMI is nearing a overbought quinella.
Commodities were mostly weaker, again.
Cocoa & Coffee all saw strength again.
Robusta Coffee and Cocoa have risen 23% and 31%, respectively over the past 3 weeks.
Coal, Aluminium, Steel, Nickel and Copper were amongst the weakest performers for the week.
Copper has fallen 12% in the past 3 weeks.
Gasoline has fallen 5 of the past 6 weeks, as has Brent Crude Oil.
And Gold as priced in Swiss Francs has fallen 6% over the past 3 weeks.
Grains were weaker too.
Rubber & Biodiesel broke their 5 week winning streaks.
U.S. Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel fell, following last week’s outside bearish week.
Orange Juice has fallen 11%, nearly halving the 27% advance seen in the prior 5 weeks.
And Lithium Hydroxide has now spent 47 consecutive weeks in weekly oversold territory.
Currencies continue to provide action.
The Aussie was weaker and didn’t make a new high against the Yen.
AUD/INR, AUD/THB and the AUD/USD had outside bearish reversal weeks.
In keeping with general weakness amongst commodities, the Loonie was also weaker.
The GBP/AUD had a bullish outside reversal week.
The Yen rose and as a result the GBP/JPY broke its 4 week winning streak.
The USD was stronger.
PHP/USD is in a 5 week losing streak.
And the Mexican Peso fell 8% (against the USD) following its election result.
The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;
Cocoa 6.5%, Natural Gas 12.8%, Robusta Coffee 3.8%, Sugar 3.8%, Urea U.S. Gulf 2.6%, Urea Middle East 5.1%, Rice 2.8%, AEX 2.2%, Budapest 2.9%, HSCEI 1.8%, Hang Seng 1.6%, IDX 2%, Nasdaq 100 2.4%, KOSPI 3.3%, Nasdaq Biotech 2.3%, Nasdaq 100 2.5%, NIFTY 3.4%, Copenhagen 1.7%, SENSEX 3.7%, SMI 2.1%, SOX 3.2%, S&P 500 1.3%, TAEIX 3.2%, Vietnam 2.1%, ASX 200 2.1% and the ASX Industrials rose 1.9%.
The group of largest decliners from the week included;
Aluminium (3.2%), Rotterdam Coal (8.8%), WTI Crude Oil (1.9%), Cotton (3%), Lean Hogs (1.9%), Copper (2.6%), HRC (4.3%), LNG in Yen (5.5%), Lithium (3.3%), Tin (3.1%), Newcastle Coal (7.6%), Nickel (8.8%), Orange Juice (3.1%), Platinum (6.8%), SPGSCI (1.6%), Iron Ore CFR China (8.5%), Dutch TTF Gas (3.3%), Brent Crude Oil (2.2%), Uranium (2.7%), Silver in AUD (3%), Silver USD (4%), Gold in CHF (2.1%), Oats (10.2%), Soybean (2.1%), Wheat (7.5%), KBW Banking Index (1.9%), Egypt (1.8%), S&P SmallCap 600 (2.5%), Russell 2000 (2.2%), KRE Regional Banks (3.4%), KSE (2.8%), S&P MidCap 400 (2.1%), Mexico (4%), BIST (2.5%) and Tel Aviv 25 fell 1.7%.
June 9, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
June 4, 2024 Leave a comment
WTI Crude Oil ain’t $80 anymore. It’s now $73.
In my note from mid-May, I opine that oil prices see $64 and perhaps $46.
June 4, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
Karri Asset Advisors
rob@karriasset.com.au
June 4, 2024 Leave a comment
I’m watching how the German 2 year bond yield tracks the Nasdaq 100 (or vice versa)
June 4, 2024
June 2, 2024 Leave a comment
A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.
The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.
* denotes multiple week inclusion
Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
German, Spanish, French, British, Greek and Portuguese 10 year government bond yields
British 3 year bond yields
Dutch TTF Gas *
Wheat *
And India’s SENSEX equity index
Overbought (RSI > 70)
Japanese 2 & 5 year government bond yield *
Russian 10 year government bond yield *
JKM LNG
Biodiesel
Rubber
GBP/JPY
Pakistan’s KSE Index *
Oslo *
and Turkiye’s BIST 100 *
The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)
Japanese 10 year government bond yield *
Robusta Coffee
Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
Australian 10 year minus Australian 2 year government bond yield spread *
Chilean 2 year government bond yield
EUR/GBP
Brazil’s BOVESPA equity index
Oversold (RSI < 30)
North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel *
Lumber *
Lithium Hydroxide *
Sugar *
PHP/USD
And Indonesia’s IDX 30 equity index
The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)
None
Notes & Ideas:
Government bond yields rose, mostly, again.
However, the correlation between the Copper/Gold Ratio was bucked.
The Japanese bond yields all remain at extremes.
Equities were mainly weaker, again.
Many indices fell between the 1% – 1.3% range.
Several more indices dropped out of overbought territory.
The Nasdaq Composite, SENSEX, SOX, the ASX Industrials and Chile’s equity index all performed an outside bearish week.
The Nasdaq Composite, KLSE, FTSE 250, Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and TAEIX all broke their 5 week winning streak.
Oslo makes another all-time high.
Last week’s weekly outside bearish week for the HSCEI and Indonesia’s IDX resulted in declines of 3.2% and 4.1% respectively.
Commodities were mostly weaker.
Coal, Cocoa, & Coffee all saw strength again.
Robusta Coffee and Cocoa have risen 19% and 25%, respectively over the past fortnight.
Cotton, Copper, Palladium, Corn, Orange Juice and Lumber were amongst the weakest performers for the week.
Copper has fallen 9% in the past 2 weeks.
Rice has slumped 8% in the past 3 weeks.
The Copper, Platinum, Nickel, Tin and the Copper/Gold Ratio aren’t overbought anymore. The latter is more relevant as a risk on-off indicator.
While Dutch TTF Gad and Wheat make repeat entries in the overbought category.
Lean Hogs broke their 5 week losing streak.
Soybeans broke its 5 week winning streak.
Rubber & Biodiesel are in 5 week winning streaks.
U.S. Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel had an outside bearish week.
Orange Juice fell 8% giving up a part of the 27% advance seen in the prior 3 weeks.
And Lithium Hydroxide has now spent 46 consecutive weeks in weekly oversold territory.
Currencies were quite active for the 2nd consecutive week.
The Aussie rose agains most, but it didn’t quite make a new high versus the Japanese Yen.
The CHF rose versus the Aussie which reflected the ‘risk-off’ stance for the week.
The Loonie eeked out some gains.
The DXY Index was flat.
The Euro slightly weaker, while the anomaly in the strength in the EUR/GBP, which is now overbought.
The GBP/JPY is in a 4 week winning streak.
We are seeing new weakness in the Philippine Peso against the USD, which is now in a 4 week losing streak.
And the Yen was mostly weaker, again.
The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;
Australian Coking Coal 4.2%, Cocoa 12.1%, China Coking Coal 3.9%, Robusta Coffee 5.9%, Oats 3.1%.
The group of largest decliners from the week included;
Cotton (5.4%), Iron Ore (1.7%), Copper (3.2%), Heating Oil (1.9%), U.S. Hot Rolled Coil Steel (1.8%), Lumber (4.1%), Natural Gas (6.1%), Nickel (2.8%), Orange Juice (8.3%), Palladium (7.3%), Gasoline (2.1%), Uranium (3.2%), Gold in CHF (1,6%), Corn (4%), Rice (3.7%), Soybeans (3.5%), Wheat (2.7%), HSCEI (3.2%), Hang Seng (2.8%), BOVESPA (1.8%), Indonesia (4.1%), MOEX (5.3%), KOSPI (1.9%), Nasdaq 100 (1.4%), NIFTY (1.9%), PSE (3.8%), South Africa 40 (3.2%), SENSEX (1.9%), SOX (1.9%), Chile (2.1%), TAIEX (1.8%) and BIST fell 2.6%.
And for some reference for Australian readers, the ASX 200 fell 0.3%, ASX Small Caps rose 0.4% and the S&P 500 fell 0.5% for the week.
June 2, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
May 31, 2024 Leave a comment
Shares in #Accenture have just registered their 5th moment of being ‘oversold’ (on a weekly basis) in the past 20 years.
#ACN
May 31, 2024
May 29, 2024 Leave a comment
I recall ‘gold bugs’ commonly telling us that owning Gold is a hedge against inflation and a weak economy and stock market.
Lately, that story hasn’t been applicable.
Just keep this in mind when the next time that the financial media try to frame it as so.
May 29, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
rob zdravevski's blog 