Trying to hear what's not being said
July 10, 2024 Leave a comment
As per my note about Uranium, dated April 9, 2024, I am still waiting for lower prices.
Yellowcake plc, specifically is currently trading at 578p, looking for it to venture down to the 450p area.
July 10, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
July 7, 2024 Leave a comment
A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.
The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.
* denotes multiple week inclusion
Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 5 year government bond yield spread
KOSPI
Singapore’s Strait Times Index
Overbought (RSI > 70)
Biodiesel *
Robusta Coffee
AUD/JPY
EUR/JPY
GBP/JPY *
USD/JPY
Netherlands AEX *
Hungary’s BUX *
Pakistan’s KSE *
Nasdaq Composite *
Nasdaq 100 *
Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX)
S&P 500 *
Turkiye’s BIST 100
and Taiwan’s TAEIX *
The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)
NIFTY *
SENSEX *
Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
Shanghai Composite Index
China’s CSI 300 Index
Oversold (RSI < 30)
Cotton
North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel *
U.S. Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel *
Lumber *
Lithium Hydroxide *
Corn *
And the Chinese RMB *
The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)
None
Notes & Ideas:
Government bond yields changed course and fell,
Except for the German, Swedish, Norwegian, Swiss and Polish 10’s, along with the Euro curve.
In fact, the Swiss 10’s yield broke their 4 consecutive weeks of decline.
Furthermore, all of the bond yields and spreads which appeared last week are no longer so.
Against the yield trend, the Copper/Gold ratio bounced,
And the U.S. 2’s and 5’s yield had bearish outside reversal weeks.
Equities saw strength, again…..again….mostly !
For example, the Nasdaq Composite has risen for 10 out of the past 11 weeks, so much so to render it trading at 36% above its 200 week moving average.
China’s CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite have fallen for 7 consecutive weeks, while the KOSPI has risen for 5 straight weeks
Chile’s IGPA broke its 5 weeks of declines and Thailand’s SET broke its 6 week losing streak
Indonesia’s main index has climbed 8.2% over the past 3 weeks.
And the FTSE 250 and Vietnam’s VN Index both had bullish outside reversal weeks.
Commodities were mostly firmer, which is a change against the past weeks of weaker bias.
Coking Coal, Copper, Oil and Distillates, Tin, Precious Metals Orange Juice and Coffee featured amongst those who had a terrific week.
Gases, Urea, Rice and Lithium were the biggest losers for the week.
WTI Crude, Brent Crude, Heating Oil and Gasoline are in a 4 week winning streak.
Lean Hogs have slumped for 9 of the past 11 weeks, falling 14% over that time.
Lumber and Natural Gas (NG) prices have fallen for 4 consecutive weeks. NG has posted a 26% loss during this streak.
The Copper/Gold Ratio bounced out of its 6 week losing streak.
Palladium has risen 15% over the past 3 weeks.
Soybeans and Wheat both broke their 5 straight weeks of declines.
Lumber has fallen for 11 weeks of the past 15 weeks.
And Lithium Hydroxide has now spent 51 consecutive weeks in weekly oversold territory.
Currencies continue to provide action, again and again.
Many currencies no longer appearing in extreme categories.
The AUD has risen for 4 consecutive weeks against the JPY, EUR, CAD, SGD, THB and USD.
The CAD/AUD has fallen for 4 weeks, while the Loonie against the USD has climbed for 4 straight weeks.
The U.S. Dollar (DXY Index) fell 1%, breaking its 4 week winning streak.
The Euro was mixed
The British Pound was stronger in a week when the United Kingdom held a general election.
And the Yen was weak, again.
The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;
Australian Coking Coal 7.6%, China Coking Coal 7.5%, WTI Crude Oil 2%, Copper 5.9%, Heating Oil 2.7%, Tin 3.3%, Newcastle Coal 2.8%, Orange Juice 4.9%, Palladium 6.3%, Platinum 3.2%, Robusta Coffee 4.3%, SPGSCI 1.5%, Brent Crude Oil 2.3%, Gasoil 2.8%, Silver in AUD 5.9%, Silver in USD 7.1%, Gold in CAD and CHF 2.5%, Gold in USD 2.8%, Gold in ZAR 3.1%, Soybean 2.3%, Wheat 3%, All World ex USA 2.1%, ATX 2.8%, CAC 2.6%, Egypt 2.2%, MIB 2.5%, BOVESPA 1.9%, IDX 2.1%, Nasdaq Composite 3.5%, KOSPI 2.3%, FTSE 250 2.5%, Nasdaq 100 3.6%, Nikkei 225 3.4%, SOX 3.4%, S&P 500 2%, STI 2.3%, TAIEX 2.3%, Vietnam 3%, ASX Materials 3.3%, BIST 1.9% and Israel’s TA25 rose 2.1%.
The group of largest decliners from the week included;
Baltic Dry Index (4.1%), Cotton (2.4%), Lithium (3.6%), Natural Gas (10.8%), Dutch TTF Gas (4.1%),Urea U.S. Gulf (4.2%), Rice (5.4%), and the KRE Regional Banks Index fell 2.4%.
July 7, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
July 4, 2024 Leave a comment
When the RSI on the VIX Index trades at a reading of 38 or below (note it has never registered a weekly oversold reading of below 30), the S&P 500 embarks on a rally against an economic backdrop of trying or testing conditions or headwinds.
This climb up a ‘wall of worry’ tends to exhaust itself when the RSI registers a reading of 64 while the upward equity trend can last between 6 and 24 months.
We are 19 months into this current ‘grind’ higher.
It’s not the safest equity market.
July 4, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
July 3, 2024 Leave a comment
Another post about #lithium companies;
In early February 2024, I wrote in anticipation of mean reversion for listed Australian lithium company, #Pilbara Minerals,
https://robzdravevski.com/2024/02/07/reminiscing-about-gravity/
Within it I said, “Parabolas are honoured by mean reversion.
As price and mean converges, it still may be a $2.80 stock (+/- 20 cents).”
Thus far, this week’s low is $2.93. Good enough to satisfy that view…..
whether and where it’s a ‘buy’ is the next pondering.
July 3, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
July 3, 2024 Leave a comment
Inserting the word ‘Private’ into a term or phrase doesn’t make it cheap.
The marketing seems to suggest that it’s better and perhaps exclusive to gain entry.
‘Private Club’, Private Equity’, ‘Private Room’, ‘Private Jet’, ‘Private School’, ‘Private Lounge’, ‘Private Credit’, Private Banker’ etc etc etc
But the word ‘private’ comes at a cost, it’s never a bargain.
The fees and what the provider/promoter can earn from you seem to precede the concern over the quality and level of the service being rendered….
Anything ‘private’ always starts as being expensive and remains so, the whole time…..
In the case of investment markets and funds, ‘private’ can also prove difficult to exit and likely expensive too.
The last 4 lines in the Eagles song, “Hotel California” come to mind.
Last thing I remember, I was running for the door
I had to find the passage back to the place I was before
“Relax, ” said the night man, “We are programmed to receive
You can check out any time you like, but you can never leave”
#public
July 3, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
July 2, 2024 Leave a comment
For the past quarter, the CME contract for Lithium Hydroxide prices have fallen 20%.
The attached study compares that to a selection of equity prices of companies associated with ‘lithium’.
July 2, 2024
June 30, 2024 Leave a comment
A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.
The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.
* denotes multiple week inclusion
Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
Australian 10 year minus U.S. 10 year government bond yield spread
AUD/JPY
Overbought (RSI > 70)
Brazilian 10 year government bond yield *
Biodiesel *
GBP/JPY *
Amsterdam’s AEX *
Budapest
Karachi’s KSE *
Nasdaq Composite *
Nasdaq 100 *
S&P 500 *
and Taiwan’s TAEIX *
The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)
USD/BRL *
NIFTY *
SENSEX *
Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
Australian 10 year minus Australian 2 year government bond yield spread *
Australian 10 year minus Australian 5 year government bond yield spread *
U.S. 10 year minus Australian 10 year government bond yield spread *
U.S. 10 year divided by the Australian 10 year government bond yield
Lean Hogs
COP/USD
EUR/AUD
And Russia’s MOEX
Oversold (RSI < 30)
Chinese 10 year government bond yield
North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel *
U.S. Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel *
Lumber *
Lithium Hydroxide *
Shanghai Rebar
JPY/USD
JPY/AUD
RMB
The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)
BRL/USD
Corn
Notes & Ideas:
Government bond yields rose, again,
Except for the Swiss, Swedish, Finnish and Danish 10’s.
The yield in the Swiss 10’s have fallen for 4 consecutive weeks.
Other than the Chinese and Brazilian 10’s lodging into opposite end of extreme categories, we have interesting bond spreads appearing this week.
And we the U.S. 10-2 yield curve is nearing an oversold extreme.
U.S. 5 & 10 year breakeven inflation rates bounced off their oversold lows.
And Chilean 2 year yields broke their 8 consecutive weeks of declines, In last week’s note, I commented that their oversold reading may lead the world in a trough in yields.
Equities saw strength, again.
As they bounced, so did many of last week’s oversold entrants.
Other extended their losing streaks to 6 consecutive weeks, among them China’s CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite along with Thailand’s SET.
Chile has fallen for 5 straight weeks.
While China’s A50, Chile’s IPSA and Torontos’ TSX broke their 5 week losing streaks.
Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) fell 1.2% and is not overbought anymore.
The CAC-40 had a bearish outside reversal week.
While the KOSPI has risen for 4 straight weeks and Indonesia’s main index has climbed 6% over the past fortnight.
Commodities were mixed, again, with a bias towards weakness. Again.
Once again, the weakness won’t show up in the commodities indices due to the positive skew weighting afforded to the Crude Oil weightings.
Although the Bloomberg Commodity Index has decline for 5 of the past 6 weeks.
Palladium, Sugar and Oats were amongst the few winners.
Coking Coal, Cocoa, Natural Gas and Corn were amongst the notable losers, again.
Lean Hogs have slumped for 9 of the past 10 weeks, falling 14% over that time.
Natural Gas prices have posted a 15% loss during its 3 week losing streak.
Nickel snaps its 5 week losing streak during which its price retracing 16%.
Cocoa has given back 16% of its recent 37% advance seen over the previous 6 weeks.
The Copper/Gold Ratio has declined for 6 consecutive weeks.
Soybeans and Wheat prices have fallen for 5 straight weeks.
Iron Ore snapped its 4 weeks of declines.
Lumber has fallen for 11 weeks of the past 14 weeks.
And Lithium Hydroxide has now spent 50 consecutive weeks in weekly oversold territory.
Currencies continue to provide action, again and again.
Many currencies no longer appearing in extreme categories.
The Aussie rose.
The Loonie was quiet and mixed.
The USD (DXY) has risen for 4 straight weeks.
The Euro was mainly firmer.
The USD/CLP broke its 5 week rising run.
And the Yen’s weakness dominated news.
The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;
Palladium 5.8%, Raw Sugar 6.5%, Refined Sugar 2.6%, Oats 3.4%, KBW Banks 2.5%, Budapest 2.4%, DJ Transport 2%, Egypt 5.1%, BOVESPA 2.1%, Indonesia 2.5%, Russell 2000 1.3%, KRE Regional Banks 4.5%, Nikkei 2.6%, Nifty 2.2%, PSE 4.1%, Sensex 2.4% and Toronto’s TSX rose 1.5%
The group of largest decliners from the week included;
Australian Coking Coal (4.5%), Cocoa (13.2%), China Coking Coal (6.3%), Lean Hogs (2.7%), Lithium Hydroxide (3.9%), Tin (2.8%), Natural Gas (7.5%0, Orange Juice (2.7%), Robusta Coffee (2.1%), Silver in AUD (1.8%), Corn (7.5%), CAC (2%), HSCEI (1.7%), Vietnam (2.9%) and the Hang Seng fell 1.7%.
June 30, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
June 25, 2024 Leave a comment
Nobody wants U.S. Hot Rolled Coil Steel.
Prices are in a trough.
And its reflected in the equity prices of steelmakers such as Cleveland Cliffs (CLF:US) ,as shown in the chart below.
Similar shapes are seen in the stock prices of other steel manufacturers around the world.
June 25, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
June 25, 2024 Leave a comment
In mid-November 2023, this note implied ‘it’s not too late to buy Nickel’ when it was trading at $16,781.
On April 20, 2024, when Nickel was trading at $19,224, I wrote a note about preparing to ‘sell Nickel’ suggesting that it’ll reach somewhere around $22,075.
In mid-May, 5 months and 30% later, Nickel traded within 2.5% of that figure (at $21,500)……close enough.
It was true that Nickel’s upward trend was not exhibiting any strength.
Today, one month since that peak, the price of Nickel has declined 20% and is now trading at $17,140.
It is not giving me a buy signal yet.
June 25, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
June 23, 2024 Leave a comment
A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.
The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.
* denotes multiple week inclusion
Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
AUD/EUR
GBP/EUR
ZAR/USD
KOSPI
NIFTY
SENSEX
Overbought (RSI > 70)
Brazilian 10 year government bond yield *
Biodiesel *
Robusta Coffee
GBP/JPY
PHP/USD
RMD/USD
AEX *
KSE *
S&P 500 *
BIST 100
and Taiwan’s TAEIX *
The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)
USD/BRL
Nasdaq Composite *
Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) *
Nasdaq 100 *
Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
Australian 10 year minus Australian 2 year government bond yield spread *
Australian 10 year minus Australian 5 year government bond yield spread *
Sweden 10 year government bond yield
Lean Hogs
AUD/ZAR
COP/USD
EUR/GBP
IDR/USD
MXN/USD
CAC Index
IBOV
Indonesia’s IDX *
MOEX
Phillipines PSE
Thailand’s SET *
And the ASX Materials Index
Oversold (RSI < 30)
Chilean 2 year government bond yield *
North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel *
U.S. Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel *
Lumber *
Lithium Hydroxide *
PHP/USD *
The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)
BRL/USD
Notes & Ideas:
Government bond yields rose, breaking short-term rising trends;
Except for Swiss, Spanish, British and Portuguese.
U.S. 5 & 10 year breakeven inflation rates bounced off their oversold lows.
And Chilean 2 year yields broke their 8 consecutive weeks of declines, In last week’s note, I commented that their oversold reading may lead the world in a trough in yields.
Equities saw strength, mostly.
Some extended their losing streaks to 5 consecutive weeks, among them being the CSI 300, Shanghai Composite, China A50, SET and Toronto’s TSX.
Chile has fallen for 5 straight weeks.
Austria’s ATX rose and broke its 4 week losing run.
Mexico and Helsinki also broke their respective streaks.
The TAIEX has soared 9.5% over the past 3 weeks.
While the ASX Materials Index has “meant reverted” in its 5 week decline.
Commodities were mixed, again, with a bias towards weakness.
The commodities indices won’t expressed it due to the positive skew weighting afforded to the Crude Oil weightings.
Shipping, Palladium, Platinum, Oils and Distillates were stronger.
Thermal and Coking Coal, Cocoa, Steel, Lumber, Grains and Gases were weaker.
Cocoa gave up 8% of its recent 37% advance seen over the previous 4 weeks.
The Copper/Gold Ratio has declined for 5 consecutive weeks as have Nickel prices.
Iron Ore, Soybeans and Wheat prices have fallen for 4 straight weeks.
Wheat has slumped 21% in 4 weeks, Oats have tanked 24% in the last 3 weeks.
Lean Hogs have declined for 8 of the past 9 weeks.
Lumber has fallen for 10 weeks of the past 13 weeks.
Robusta Coffee performed a bullish outside several week.
And Lithium Hydroxide has now spent 49 consecutive weeks in weekly oversold territory.
Currencies continue to provide action, again and again.
The Aussie was higher, again except against the South African Rand.
The Euro was mixed.
The Yen is nearing an oversold reading against the AUD.
The USD has risen for 5 consecutive weeks against the Colombian Peso
The U.S. Dollar was mostly stronger.
And the CHF/AUD broke its 4 week rising streak.
The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;
Baltic Dry Index 2.5%, WTI Crude 3.4%, Palladium 2.9%, Platinum 3.9%, Gasoline 4.6%, Robusta Coffee 4.5%, Brent Crude 3%, Gasoil 2.8%, KBW Bank Index 1.6%, DAX 0.9%, DJ Industrials 1.5%, DJ Transports 2.1%, MIB 2%, IBOV 1.4%, IDX 3.6%, KRE Regional Banks 1.9%, KSE 2.7%, MCX 1.6%, South Africa 3.3%, TAIEX 3.3%, BIST 2.9% and ASX Small Caps 1.7%.
The group of largest decliners from the week included;
Australian Coking Coal (3.2%), Cocoa (8.2%), China Coking Coal (3.1%), HRC (1.9%), JKM LNG (2.3%), Lumber (9.1%), JKM LNG in Yen (2.5%), Newcastle Coal (2.5%), Natural Gas (6.1%), Shanghai Rebar (2%), Sugar (2.4%), Dutch TTF Gas (4%), Uranium (2.6%), Gold in ZAR (2.5%), Corn (3.3%), Oats (6.4%), Soybean (2.6%), Wheat (8.4%) and the Phillipines PSE Index fell 3.5%.
June 23, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
rob zdravevski's blog 