Trying to hear what's not being said
November 5, 2024 Leave a comment
This study overlays Bitcoin volatility against the S&P 500 Index.
It is saying to me that when Bitcoin volatility is overbought, buy equities
And when #Bitcoin #Volatility (BVOL) is registering an RSI reading below 38, then it seems that equities are stifled, perhaps signalling a peak.
BVOL traded below 38 last week.
November 5, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
Karri Asset Advisors
rob@karriasset.com.au
November 5, 2024 Leave a comment
I see another leg lower in the price of uranium.
The Sprott Uranium Trust is an example where it hasn’t made a new and recent ‘higher high’, while I’ll watch if it makes a ‘lower low’.
My posturing is not to sell, nor short but rather position to buy.
November 5, 2024
November 3, 2024 Leave a comment
A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.
The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.
* denotes multiple week inclusion
Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
British 2, 3, 5 and 10 year government bond yields
Lumber
Overbought (RSI > 70)
U.S. 10 year bond yield minus the U.S. Inflation Rate (YoY) *
Gold as priced in AUD, CAD, CHF, EUR, GBP USD & ZAR *
The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)
U.S. 5 year bond yield minus 3 month bill yield
U.S. 5 year bond yield minus U.S. Inflation Rate (YoY)
Lean Hogs
Pakistan’s KSE *
Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
BRL/USD
Copenhagen
Oversold (RSI < 30)
U.S. 3 month government bill yield *
Australian Coking Coal *
U.S. Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel *
North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel *
Lithium Carbonate *
Lithium Hydroxide *
The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)
Colombian Peso vs USD
Notes & Ideas:
Global government bond yields rose, again.
Australian yields have risen for 5 consecutive weeks.
The U.S. 10 year vs Euro 10 year spread yield has climbed for 7 straight weeks,
as has the U.S. 10 year bond yield minus the U.S. 10 year inflation breakeven rate.
U.S. 3 month bills are yielding their lowest since mid-March 2023.
U.S. 2’s are their highest weekly close in 3 months.
The U.S. 10 year bond yield has risen for 5 of the past 7 weeks.
And the Aussie yield curve is nearly overbought.
Equities were weaker, again.
The Hang Seng and HSCEI are in 4 week losing streaks.
The Nasdaq Compose broke its 7 week winning streak while also performing a bearish outside reversal.
Mexico’s main index has declined 4.5% over the past fortnight.
The ASX Materials index along with India’s Nifty and Sensex all broke their 4 week losing streak.
And Oslo’s OBX and Stockholm’s OMX30 both posted a weekly bearish outside reversal.
Commodity prices were weaker.
Energy prices saw weakness with gas prices having a shocker.
Palladium and Silver dropped out from overbought status.
This week, they dropped 8% and 3% respectively.
The Baltic Dry Index and Robusta Coffee have fallen for 5 straight weeks.
The former has fallen 40% over the past 4 weeks.
Copper broke its 4 week streak of declines, by only a whisker.
Lean Hogs have climbed for 5 weeks.
Cocoa recovered last weeks decline.
Cattle and Platinum both posted a bearish outside reversal week.
Nickel and Sugar have fallen for 4 straight weeks. The former may re-test recent lows.
Robusta Coffee and Rice have sunken for 5 and 6 consecutive weeks, respectively.
Gold was subdues, while Silver was a notable loser.
U.S.Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel has spent 23 weeks being oversold.
And Lithium Hydroxide has now lingered in weekly oversold territory for 68 consecutive weeks.
Currencies saw the most amount of streaks being extended.
The DXY Index is at its highest close in 3 months and is in a 4 week rising streak.
The Aussie weakened, again, now for the 4th week against many and for 5 weeks specifically versus the USD.
The Yen and Canadian Dollar were weaker.
The Loonie is in a 5 week losing streak against the USD.
I found it interesting that the CAD has risen for 3 weeks vs the AUD.
The Euro rose and the EUR/GBP posted a bullish outside reversal.
The GBP/USD, the JPY/USD, MYR/USD, SGD/USD and NZD/USD have all fallen for 5 straight weeks.
Philippines Peso is in a 6 week losing streak vs USD.
And the GBP has climbed for 4 weeks versus the Aussie.
The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;
Cocoa 8.4%, Lean Hogs 5.5%, Lumber 5%, Brent Crude 3.8%, Oats 5%, DJ Transports 1.5% and the KRE Regional Bank Index rose 1.3%.
The group of largest decliners from the week included;
Aluminium (3.3%), Rotterdam Coal (2.5%), Bloomberg Commodity Index (2.2%), Baltic Dry Index (2.3%), WTI Crude Oil (3.2%), JKM LNG (2.3%), Arabica Coffee (2.2%), Brent Crude Oil (3.6%), Lithium Carbonate (2.7%), Lithium Hydroxide (4.9%), Newcastle Coal (2.3%), Natural Gas (14.5%), Nickel (1.6%), Palladium (7.8%), Platinum (3.3%), Gasoline (3.5%), Robusta Coffee (3%), S&P GSCI (2.1%), CRB Index (1.8%), Dutch TTF Gas (10.4%), Uranium (3.3%), Silver in AUD (3.1%), Silver in USD (3.8%), Rice (1.8%), CSI 300 (1.7%), AEX (1.7%), Bovespa (1.4%), TAIEX (2.4%), Nasdaq Composite (1.5%), KOSPI (1.6%), Mexico (2.4%), FTSE 250 (1.6%), Nasdaq 100 (1.6%), Oslo (1.9%), Helsinki (2%), PSI (2.3%), SMI (1.8%), SOX (4.1%), Chile (2.8%), S&P 500 (1.4%) and ASX Financial fell 1.6%.
November 3, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
November 1, 2024 Leave a comment
It feels like it’s somewhere between Midnight and 1am at the current S&P 500 party.
While my work and analysis suggests reasonable probability that the party continues, I remind myself……
that the most fun happens between 1am and 3am. It is also when accidents happen and mistakes are made.
There is a time to start thinking about going home.
And so, for clients for whom I help oversee larger amounts of their assets, I am advising them that it’s prudent to have disproportionate and perhaps substantial percentage of their balance sheet in cash or cash equivalents………in order to go shopping at a later date.
November 1, 2024 Leave a comment
Yesterday, I pasted some numbers of where Bitcoin (BTC/USD) has traded as a percentage above its 200 week moving average.
It’s been frothier while it confirms the mood to accept greater amounts of risk.
November 1, 2024
rob@karriasset.com.au
November 1, 2024 Leave a comment
My read on Microsoft’s share price is that $339 would be a nice place to buy.
Today, #MSFT is priced at $406.
On a weekly basis, the stock is in a downtrend, albeit it’s without strength.
Further weakness, following this weeks bearish outside reversal should help.
If my $339 entry point is reached, we’d likely on be ‘dating’, for $282 would be a price where I would ‘marry’ the stock again.
Could you imagine what the #Nasdaq 100 would like, should #Microsoft stock trade down 30% to $282?’
November 1, 2024
rob@karriasset.com.au
October 29, 2024 Leave a comment
Last week, the share price of Gold Fields Limited (GFI:US) didn’t make a new ‘higher high’.
While several weeks earlier, it made a ‘lower low’.
To boot, its trading at various ‘overbought’ extremes and the there are gaps below waiting to be filled.
I’d say that the ‘fat part’ of the trade has been seen.
I’ll be interested buying it below $13.
October 29, 2024
rob@karriasset.com.au
October 29, 2024 Leave a comment
I don’t think I’ve seen the low in Oil that would encourage me to take a new long position.
I’m expecting a double dip to $64, then watching for support around $55.
Failing to hold that level opens up probabilities to the $46-$45 region.
Such a decline would mean expanding margins for industrial users and lower equity prices for oil and gas companies.
Some of those price conversions appear in the linked post from early September 2024.
October 29, 2024
rob@karriasset.com.au
October 28, 2024 Leave a comment
The U.S. inflation rate is closer to its low, than its high,
and so my portfolios will be positioned towards assets which will benefit from higher inflation.
In the meantime, there may a little lower travel for the #inflation rate in the coming month or two.
October 28, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
October 27, 2024 Leave a comment
A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.
The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.
* denotes multiple week inclusion
Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
Palladium
Silver in AUD & USD
Tel Aviv 35
And Australia’s ASX Small Caps *
Overbought (RSI > 70)
U.S. 10 year bond yield minus the U.S. Inflation Rate (YoY)
Gold as priced in AUD, CAD, EUR, GBP USD & ZAR *
The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)
Gold as priced in CHF *
Pakistan’s KSE *
Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
Baltic Dry Index
Oversold (RSI < 30)
U.S. 3 month government bill yield *
Australian Coking Coal *
U.S. Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel *
North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel *
Lithium Carbonate *
Lithium Hydroxide *
The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)
None
Notes & Ideas:
Global government bond yields rose.
The Brazilian, Finnish and Korean yields bucked that trend.
Australian yields have risen for 4 consecutive weeks.
The U.S. 10 year vs Euro 10 year spread yield has climbed for 6 straight weeks,
as has the U.S. 10 year bond yield minus the U.S. 10 year inflation breakeven rate.
U.S. 2’s are their highest weekly close in 2 months.
Lastly, the U.S. 20 year bond yield has risen for 5 of the past 6 weeks.
Equities were weaker.
North American and Asian indices were the most weakest.
The U.S. Transports indices dropped out overbought territory as did the Dow Jones Industrials, Thailand’s SET and Toronto’s TSX.
The Hang Seng and HSCEI are in 3 week losing streaks.
The Nikkei 225 has declined 4.2% over the past fortnight.
India’s Nifty and Sensex have fallen for 4 consecutive weeks which isn’t surprising after spending a couple months trading at various extremes.
The ASX Materials index has also declined for the past 4 weeks.
The Tel Aviv 25 Index is at an all-time high……
And the Dow Jones Industrials, Nasdaq Composite, S&P MidCap 400 and the S&P 500 all broke their 6 week winning streaks.
Commodity prices were stronger.
Energy prices bounced back and Palladium, Gold, Orange Juice, Corn & Soybeans were the other prominent gainers.
Cocoa, Coffee, Uranium, Nickel and Shipping Rates were the notable decliners for the week.
The former has declined 13% over the past fortnight.
Copper, the Baltic Dry Index and Robusta Coffee have fallen for 4 straight weeks.
The latter has slumped 20% over that time, while the Baltic Dry Index is at oversold extreme.
Furthermore, the Baltic Dry Index has fallen 38% over the past 3 weeks.
China Coking Coal completed a reversion to the mean.
The Copper/Gold Ratio has fallen for 4 consecutive weeks.
Palladium is at its highest closing price since mid-December 2023.
Lean Hogs are in a 6 week winning streak.
Natural Gas soared 13.4% making up half of the 24% decline seen in the previous 3 weeks.
U.S.Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel has spent 22 weeks being oversold.
And Lithium Hydroxide has now lingered in weekly oversold territory for 67 consecutive weeks.
Currencies action was dominated by U.S. strength, again; again.
The DXY Index is at its highest close in 3 months and is in a 4 week rising streak.
The Aussie weakened, again, again.
The Yen was weaker.
The Aussie has fallen for 4 weeks against the Rupiah and the USD.
Similarly, the Brazilian Real, Canadian Dollar and Yen have also declined for the past 4 weeks versus the USD.
Philippines Peso’s falling streak vs USD has extended to weeks as has the EUR/USD.
While the Swiss Franc rose for the week.
The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;
Aluminium 2.4%, Bloomberg Commodity Index 2%, WTI Crude Oil 4.5%, Lean Hogs 2.4%, Heating Oil 4%, JKM LNG 3.9%, JKM in Yen 3.9%, Natural Gas 13.4%, Orange Juice 6%, Palladium 10.9%, Gasoline 3.6%, S&P GSCI 2.7%, CRB Index 1.8%, Dutch TTF Gas 11%, Brent Crude 3.8%, Gasoil 4.3%, Silver in AUD 1.6%, Gold in AUD 2.5%, Gold in EUR 1.6%, Gold in GBP 1.7%, Corn 2.6%, Soybean 1.5%, KSE 5.6% and Oslo rose 1.9%.
The group of largest decliners from the week included;
Baltic Dry Index (10.5%), Cocoa (9.1%), Arabica Coffee (3.5%), Lithium Hydroxide (4.4%), Nickel (4.4%), Robusta Coffee (5.8%), Uranium (2.5%), Developed World ex USA (2.1%), KBW Baks (1.5%), CAC (1.5%), DJ Industrials (2.7%), DJ Transports (1.7%), S&P SmallCap 600 (3.1%), Russell 2000 (3%), KLSE (1.7%), KRE Regional Banks (2.9%), FTSE 250 (1.6%), S&P MidCap 400 (2.8%), Mexico (2.3%), Nasdaq Biotech (2.6%), Nikkei 225 (2.7%), Helsinki (1.5%), Sensex (2.2%), SET (1.8%), S&P 500 (1%), TSX (1.5%), Vietnam (2.6%), WIG (2.3%) and the ASX Industrials fell 2.2%.
October 27, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
rob zdravevski's blog 