Trying to hear what's not being said
October 1, 2025 Leave a comment
Since the early April 2025 lows across various capital markets, the stock price of the Mexican cement company, Cemex, has easily outperformed the price of Gold and Bitcoin.
Is cement and concrete the new ‘money’?
#perspective
October 1, 2025
rob@karriasset.com.au
September 29, 2025 Leave a comment
I’m seeing Euro strength across a host of pairs.
While I think there is a little more upward travel, the Euro is closing on being full and it’s starting to appear in some of my overbought extreme metrics.
Soon, I’ll sell Euro and buy currencies such as the Yen, to fund some Japanese equity opportunities.
September 29, 2025
rob@karriasset.com.au
September 28, 2025 Leave a comment
A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.
The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.
n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.
* denotes multiple week inclusion
Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
Australian 3 year government bond yields
Chinese, Czech, South Korean and Swedish 10 year government bond yields
Italian 2 and 10 year government bond yields
Uranium
Gold in ZAR
AUD/IDR *
AUD/CAD *
COP/USD
USD/IDR
Overbought (RSI > 70)
Lean Hogs
CHF/JPY
EUR/JPY
Shanghai Composite Index *
CSI 300 *
IDX Composite
China’s FCATC *
Spain’s IBEX
Taiwan’s TAIEX *
Nasdaq Composite *
Pakistan’s KSE Index *
South Korea’s KOSPI *
Nikkei 225
Japan’s Nikkei 225
Czechia’s PX Index *
South Africa’s SA40 *
Chile’s IGPA and IPSA indices *
Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) *
Canada’s TSX *
Vietnam’s VN Index *
And the ASX Small Cap Index *
The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)
Silver in AUD & USD *
Gold in AUD, CAD, CHF, EUR, GBP and USD
Mexico’s IPC Index
Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
None
Oversold (RSI < 30)
U.S. 3 month bill yield *
Richards Bay Coal *
Rice
JPY/EUR
NZD/AUD
The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)
Philippines PSE equity index
Notes & Ideas:
Government bond yields were quiet.
U.S. corporate bond yields (and the high yield effective yield) are a whisker from oversold levels and at are at their most oversold since December 2020.
Czech 10 year yields and the U.S. 5 year minus U.S. 3 month yield have risen for 4 weeks.
Swiss 10 year bond yields have fallen for 5 weeks.
And Swedish, Italian and Korean 10 year yields are in oversold territory.
Equities were mostly lower, again.
The S&P 500 eased slightly, which was enough to leave overbought land.
We see a return of Spain’s IBEX and Japan’s Nikkei 225 to the overbought list.
HSCEI Index and Brazil’s BOVESPA equity index are no longer at overbought extremes.
The TAIEX and Nikkei 225 have risen for 5 weeks.
The ASX Industrials have fallen for 5 weeks, while the Dow Jones Transports rose and broke its 4 week losing streak.
AEX, KSE, N225, PX and SOX are in 4 week winning streaks.
The TAIEX has risen for 5 weeks.
The DJ Transports rose and broke 4 weeks of loses.
The Russell 2000 fell and broke a 7 week streak of advance.
Canada’s TSX technically broke its 7 week winning streak by falling a mere 0.02%.
While the ASX Small Caps stretches its winning streak to 8 weeks.
Commodities were busy and mostly firmer.
Oils, Precious Metals, Lumber, Copper, Coffee and Sugar were amongst the notable gainers.
Cocoa, Steel, Urea, Oats and Rice dominated the losers category.
Uranium joins Gold in overbought territory.
Lumber rose and isn’t oversold.
The Copper/Gold ratio is nearing oversold levels.
Gasoil has climbed for 4 consecutive weeks.
Lean Hogs, Silver in AUD & USD along with Gold in AUD, CAD, CHF, and ZAR are all in a 6 week rising streak.
Platinum has risen for 8 weeks.
Cocoa has declined for 6 weeks.
Richards Bay Coal and U.S. Gulf urea prices are in 9 week losing streaks.
Currencies were active, again.
There have been some changes in this weeks currency entrants and some streaks are developing and extending.
The Aussie was weaker, again.
The Euro and CHF were firmer.
Swissie/Yen has risen for 6 weeks, but CHF/USD fell and broke its 6 week winning streak.
The Loonie eased.
Yen was weaker and we are seeing JPY/EUR fall for 4 weeks and Yen/USD down for 5 weeks.
The USD has fallen for 4 weeks against the South African Rand,
And the Kiwi has slumped for 8 weeks against the Aussie.
The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;
Bloomberg Commodity Index 2.1%, Brent Crude 5.2%, Baltic Dry Index 2.5%, WTI Crude 5.3%, Lean Hogs 3.6%, Copper 3.1%, Heating Oil 5.4%, Arabica Coffee 3.2%, Lumber 4.6%, Palladium 12.1%, Platinum 11.2%, Gasoline 4%, Robusta Coffee 1.6%, Sugar 2.7%, S&P GSCI 2.8%, CRB Index 2%, Gasoil 5.7%, Uranium 5.9%, Silver in AUD 7.7%, Silver in USD 6.9%, Gols in AUD 2.8%, Gold in CAD 3.2%, Gold in CHF 2.4%, Gold in EUR 2.4%, Gold in GBP 2.6%, Gold in USD 2%, Gold in ZAR 2%, Mexico 1.8%, XBI Biotechs 2.5%, ASX Materials 5.9%.
The group of largest decliners from the week included;
Cocoa (4.6%), U.S Midwest Hot Coiled Steel (3%), LNG in Yen (2.1%), Urea Middle East (1.8%), Oats (3.8%), Rice (2.2%), HSCEI (1.8%), Hang Seng (1.6%), KRE (1.8%), KOSPI (1.7%), NIFTY (2.7%), Copenhagen (2.2%), PSE (3.8%), SENSEX (2.7%), SMI (1.5%) and Nasdaq Transports fell 1.5%.
September 28, 2025
By Rob Zdravevski
September 27, 2025 Leave a comment
The Gold zealots are out again….
Over any time period for the past 5 years, many stocks have performed better than the price of Gold.
I’ve attached just one example comparing the stock price of Oracle vs USD Gold.
September 27, 2025
rob@karriasset.com.au
September 21, 2025 Leave a comment
A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.
The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.
n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.
* denotes multiple week inclusion
Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
Chinese 10 year government bond yields *
IEF & TLT *
AUD/IDR *
AUD/CAD *
AUD/SGD *
AUD/USD *
CNH/USD
MYR/USD
THB/USD
HSCEI Index
IPC Mexico equity index *
And Brazil’s BOVESPA equity index *
Overbought (RSI > 70)
Urea (Middle East) prices *
Silver in AUD & USD *
CHF/JPY
Shanghai Composite Index *
CSI 300 *
China A50 *
Taiwan’s TAIEX *
Nasdaq Composite *
Pakistan’s KSE Index *
South Korea’s KOSPI *
Nasdaq 100
Japan’s Nikkei 225
Czechia’s PX Index *
South Africa’s SA40 *
Chile’s IGPA and IPSA indices *
Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX)
S&P 500 Index
Canada’s TSX *
Vietnam’s VN Index *
And the ASX Small Cap Index *
The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)
Gold in AUD, CHF, GBP and USD
China’s FCATC *
Hang Seng Index
Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
U.S, & New Zealand 10 year government bond yield *
Australian 10 year bond yield minus its 5 year bond yield *
TBT *
U.S. 20 and 30 year bond yields
U.S. 10 year bond yield minus 10 year breakeven inflation rate
USD/SEK *
Oversold (RSI < 30)
Lumber *
The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)
U.S. 3 month bill yield *
Richards Bay Coal *
NZD/AUD
Notes & Ideas:
Government bond yields rose, except for those in Australia, Italy, Finland, South Korea and New Zealand
It was a boring week in bonds.
U.S. corporate bond yields (and the high yield effective yield) are a whisker from oversold levels and at are at their most oversold since December 2020.
Canadian 10 year yields mean reverted.
Swiss 10 year bond yields have fallen for 4 weeks.
And Swedish 10 year yields are approaching oversold territory.
Equities were mostly firmer, but subdued.
New entrants to the overbought extreme list includes the Nasdaq 100, the SOX, S&P 500, the Hang Seng and the HSCEI.
Israel’s TA25 and Singapore’s Strait Times are no longer at overbought extremes.
The latter fell and broke its 4 week winning streak.
The TAIEX and Nikkei 225 have risen for 4 weeks.
The Dow Jones Transports and ASX Industrials have fallen for 4 weeks.
The Philippines PSE rose and broke its 5 week slump.
While the Russell 2000, TSX and ASX Small Caps have put together a 7 week winning streak.
And the S&P 500 has risen for 10 of the past 13 weeks.
Commodities were generally quiet.
Coal, Precious Metals, Uranium and Shipping Rates were amongst the notable gainers.
Coffee, Cocoa, Lumber, Tin, Palladium and Soybeans dominated the losers category.
Coal prices rallied and saw the Newcastle Coking contract depart oversold territory.
The Copper/Gold ratio is nearing oversold levels.
Lean Hogs, Silver in AUD & USD along with Gold in AUD, CAD, CHF, and ZAR are all in a 5 week rising streak.
Platinum has risen for 7 weeks.
Cocoa has declined for 5 weeks.
Richards Bay Coal, Lumber and U.S. Gulf urea prices are in 8 week losing streaks and all appear in this weeks extreme list.
Currencies were active, again.
The Aussie, the British Pound and the USD were weaker.
While the Loonie and Euro were firmer.
The AUD weakness compared to Loonie strength poses a contradiction.
JPY/USD has fallen for 4 weeks.
The Kiwi has slumped for 8 weeks against the Aussie.
The Swissie has risen against the Yen for 5 weeks.
The CHF/USD has climbed for 6 weeks.
USD/SEK rose and broke 6 weeks of decline.
And the USD/BRL completed a medium term men reversion.
The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;
Australian Coking Coal 2%, Baltic Dry Index 3.7%, Cattle 1.6%, Newcastle Coal 6.8%, Uranium 2.3%, Silver in AUD 3%, Silver in USD 2.1%, Gold in AUD 2%, Gold in GBP 1.8%, AEX 2.3%, KBW Banks 2.1%, IDX 2.5%, FCATC 3.8%, Bovespa 2.5%, Russell 2000 2%, Nasdaq Composite 2.2%, KSE 2.3%, Nasdaq 100 2.2%, PSE 2.5%, SOX 3.8%, BIST 8.9% and the XBI rose 1.6%.
The group of largest decliners from the week included;
Cocoa (2.7%), Arabica Coffee (8%), Lumber (3.2%), Tin (3%), Aluminium (1.8%), Natural Gas (1.8%), Palladium (6.5%), Robusta Coffee (10.1%), Sugar (1.8%), Soybeans (2%), TA35 (2%) and ASX Materials fell 1.5%.
September 21, 2025
By Rob Zdravevski
September 17, 2025 Leave a comment
Here is a weekly price chart of the AUD/JPY……the broader equity rally is in intact.
September 16, 2025
rob@karriasset.com.au
September 16, 2025 Leave a comment
It was 2018 when the price of Rice (as traded on CBOT) saw such empirical oversold extremes.
Think cheaper inputs for baby food, cereals, rice flour and sake….
September 15, 2025
rob@karriasset.com.au
September 14, 2025 Leave a comment
A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.
The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.
n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.
* denotes multiple week inclusion
Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
Chinese & Dutch 10 year government bond yields *
IEF & TLT *
Australian 10 year minus U.S. 10 year bond yield spread *
Gold in AUD, CHF, EUR, GBP and ZAR
AUD/IDR *
AUD/CAD *
AUD/SGD
AUD/USD
And Brazil’s BOVESPA equity index *
Overbought (RSI > 70)
Urea (Middle East) prices *
Silver in USD *
Shanghai Composite Index *
CSI 300 *
China A50
China’s FCATC
Taiwan’s TAIEX
Nasdaq Composite
Pakistan’s KSE Index *
South Korea’s KOSPI *
Japan’s Nikkei 225
Czechia’s PX Index *
South Africa’s SA40 *
Chile’s IGPA and IPSA indices *
Singapore’s Strait Times
Israel’s TA 35 Index *
Canada’s TSX *
Vietnam’s VN Index *
And the ASX Small Cap Index *
The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)
Gold in USD and CAD *
AUD/INR
IPC Mexico equity index *
Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
New Zealand 10 year government bond yield
Australian 10 year bond yield minus its 5 year bond yield
TBT
U.S. 3, 5, 7, 10, 20 and 30 year bond yields
U.S. 10 year bond yield minus 10 year breakeven inflation rate
Newcastle Coal
AUD/THB
CAD/AUD
USD/SEK
And Philippines’ PSI equity index
Oversold (RSI < 30)
Rice
The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)
U.S. 3 month bill yield *
Richards Bay Coal
Lumber *
Notes & Ideas:
Government bond yields rose, except for U.S. and UK 30’s, which rose.
Last week’s overbought sovereign 10’s are no longer.
U.S. corporate bond yields (and the high yield effective yield) are a whisker from oversold levels and at are at their most oversold since December 2020.
The U.S. 5 year breakeven rate bounced out of oversold territory.
Canadian 10 year yields have fallen for 4 weeks.
U.S. 7 year bond yields mean converged.
U.S. 2 and 30 year yields rose and broke for their 4 weeks falling streak.
And the U.S 10 year minus inflation rate spread is at its most oversold level since March 2022.
Equities were firmer, again.
The overbought list grew this week with notable new entrants including the Nasdaq Composite and the Nikkei 225.
Chinese indices are crowding the overbought list too.
Amidst all the concerns surrounding tariffs, Mexico has registered an overbought quinella.
The Dow Jones Transports have fallen for 3 weeks while the Philippines PSE has slumped for 5 weeks.
The Strait Times is in a 4 week wining streak.
Bovespa fell and broke a 5 week winning streak.
The Russell 2000, TSX and ASX Small Caps have put together a 6 week winning streak.
And the S&P 500 has risen for 9 of the past 12 weeks.
Commodities were generally stronger.
Crude Oil, Aluminium, Coffee, Orange Juice, Shipping Rates and Corn were amongst the notable gainers.
Coal, Rice, Natural Gas, Cattle and Lithium Carbonate dominated the losers category.
Sugar rose from being oversold with Rice taking its place.
The Copper/Gold ratio is nearing oversold levels.
Corn, Lean Hogs, Silver in AUD & USD along with Gold in AUD, CAD, CHF, and EUR are all in a 4 week rising streak.
Platinum has risen for 6 weeks.
Cocoa has declined for 4 weeks.
Richards Bay Coal, Lumber and U.S. Gulf urea prices are in 6 week losing streaks.
Currencies were active, again.
The Aussie rose notably.
While the Yen, Loonie and the Euro fell.
The Swissie has risen against the Yen for 4 weeks.
The CHF/USD has climbed for 5 weeks.
USD/SEK has declined for 6 weeks.
And the NZD/AUD is a 7 week losing streak.
The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;
Aluminium 3.6%, Brent Crude 2.3%, Baltic Dry Index 7.4%, WTI Crude 1.3%, Copper 2.2%, Arabica 6.2%, Orange Juice 6.2%, Palladium 10.8%, Platinum 1.8%, Robusta Coffee 6.8%, Sugar 1.5%, Tin 1.9%, Dutch TTF Gas 2.2%, Gasoil 1.8%, Silver in USD 2.9%, Gold in CAD 1.7%, Gold in USD 1.6%, Corn 2.9%, Soybeans 1.9%, Shanghai Composite 1.5%, KBW Banks 2%, CAC 2%, China A50 2.1%, FCATC 6.4%, MIB 2.3%, HSCEI 3.4%, Hang Seng 3.8%, IBEX 3.1%, TAEIX 4%, Nasdaq Composite 2%, KLSE 1.4%, KOSPI 5.9%, Mexico 2.2%, Nasdaq 100 1.9%, Nikkei 225 4.1%, Nifty 1.5%, Oslo 1.8%, Helsinki 1.5%, South Africa 3.1%, Sensex 1.5%, SET 2.3%, SOX 4.2%, TA35 1.5% and the S&P 500 rose 1.6%.
The group of largest decliners from the week included;
Richards Bay Coal (2.4%), Rotterdam Coal (2.4%), EHR (2%), Cattle (2.5%), Lithium Carbonate (2.2%), Newcastle Coal (7.5%), Natural Gas (3.5%), Rice (3.3%), BUX (1.9%), IBB (1.5%), NBI (1.6%), SMI (1.4%), IGPA (2.1%), IPSA (2.4%), BIST (3.3%) and the ASX Industrials index fell 1.3%.
September 13, 2025
By Rob Zdravevski
September 12, 2025 Leave a comment
Amidst the hootin’ and a hollerin’ about the Gold price…..
here is the Gold price in Canadian Dollars…..
and when it trades at its upper 3 standard deviation point, it goes sideways to lower for a period of time afterwards.
September 11, 2025
rob@karriasset.com.au
September 9, 2025 Leave a comment
Reprising my view from a month ago, warning about the resumption of lower stock prices in listed Lithium companies…..
Back then lithium stocks were advancing on the news that CATL was seeing supply disruptions.
Today, there is news that Chinese battery giant Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) is expected to soon resume production at its lithium mine in Yichun.
September 9, 2025
rob zdravevski's blog 