It looks crowded at the top
January 13, 2026 Leave a comment
Who is ‘short’ Silver?
Nobody !
January 13, 2026
rob@karriasset.com.au
Macro Extremes (week ending of January 9, 2026)
January 11, 2026 Leave a comment
A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.
The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.
n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.
* denotes multiple week inclusion
Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
Copper/Gold Ratio
Copper
AUD/CAD
AUD/CHF
AUD/EUR
AUD/IDR
AUD/USD
Germany’s DAX
Italy’s MIB
Russell 2000
FTSE 250
S&P Midcap 400
And Türkiye’s BIST Index
Overbought (RSI > 70)
Korean 10 year government bond yields *
The Japanese bond yield curve *
Lithium Carbonate
Tin *
LME Aluminium
Platinum
Silver in AUD & USD *
Gold in CAD, CHF, GBP & USD
AUD/JPY
CHF/JPY *
CLP/USD
CNH/USD *
EUR/JPY *
GBP/JPY *
CSI 300
Austria’s ATX Index *
U.S. KBW Bank Index *
Indonesia’s IDX Composite Index
Dow Jones Transports
Egypt’s EGX Index *
IBB Index
Spain’s IBEX *
Brazil’s BOVESPA Index
Taiwan’s TAEIX *
South Korea’s KOSPI Index *
Nasdaq Biotech Index *
OMX Helsinki Index *
OMX Stockholm Index
Czechia’s PX Index *
South Africa’s SA40 equity index *
Switzerland’s SMI Index
Philadelphia SOX Index
Chile’s IGPA *
Singapore’s Strait Times *
Israel’s TA35 *
Nasdaq Transports *
Canada’s TSX equity index *
FTSE 100 *
S&P Biotech Index *
And the ASX Materials Index
The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)
Chilean 10 year minus Chilean 2 year bond yield spread
Australian Coking Coal
Lithium Hydroxide
Nickel *
ZAR/USD *
Shanghai Composite
All World Developed (ex USA) *
Hungary’s BUX Index *
Pakistan’s KSE Index
OMX Copenhagen Index
Vietnam’s VN Index
Poland’s WIG Index *
Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
CAD/AUD
EUR/AUD
Oversold (RSI < 30)
Lumber *
Sugar #16 *
JPY/AUD *
JPY/EUR
NZD/AUD *
The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)
Chilean 2 year bond yield
USD/ZAR *
Notes & Ideas:
Government bond yields generally fell.
Except for shorter duration U.S. yields, the Japanese 5 year yield which have risen for 8 weeks and the Japanese 10’s have climbed for 4 weeks.
This week saw a few more yield extremes depart.
The U.S. 2 year bond yields rose and broke 4 weeks of decline.
Danish 10 year yields fell and broke a 5 week winning streak.
Indonesian 10 year yields rose and broke 5 weeks of advance.
Turkish 10’s rose and snapped 7 weeks of weakness.
Equities had a terrific week.
It has been months since seeing this many indices in overbought territory.
Helsinki’s OMX and Vietnam’s VN Index are in 4 week winning streaks.
Poland’s WIG has risen for 5 weeks.
The All World Developed Index-ex USA, Austria’s ATX, Norway’s OBX, Czechia’s PX and Spain’s IBEX have strung together 7 weeks of gains.
Pakistan’s KSE has climbed for 9 consecutive weeks.
Commodities were mostly higher.
Crude, Copper, Tin, Lithium, Nickel, Palladium, Platinum, Gasoline & Gold were the notable gainers.
Shipping Rates, Cocoa, Natural Gas and LNG as priced in Yen were the notable decliners.
Lithium prices have rallied and are now overbought.
Platinum and Gild return to overbought territory.
Aluminium is overbought as priced on the LME and nearly there on the COMEX.
Richards Bay Coal & Rice are no longer oversold.
The latter broke its 7 week winning streak.
Nickel has climbed for 4 weeks, rising 22% over that time.
Orange Juice has advanced for 5 weeks, climbing 47% over that time.
Lithium Hydroxide and Rubber have also advanced for 5 weeks.
Uranium’s winning streak extends to 7 weeks.
Gasoline snapped its 4 weeks slump.
While Natural Gas has fallen for 5 weeks, declining 36% over that time.
Currencies were active.
The Aussie was stronger and appearing in the extremes.
CAD was weaker, again.
CNH/USD fell enough to break a 6 week winning streak.
GBP/EUR has risen for 4 weeks.
Overall, the British Pound was mixed.
Commodity currencies such as the Aussie and Chilean Peso are overbought.
The Yen is oversold, everywhere.
EUR/CHF rose to end 4 weeks of decline.
The Kiwi has slumped for 4 straight weeks against the Aussie.
And, the USD has fallen against the South African Rand for 7 weeks.
The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;
Australian Coking Coal 2.3%, Richards Bay Coal 2.7%, Aluminium 2.9%, Bloomberg Commodity Index 2.4%, Brent Crude Oil 4.3%, WTI Crude Oil 3.1%, Copper 3.7%, Lithium Carbonate 22.1%, Lithium Hydroxide 16.2%, Tin 12.3%, LME Aluminium 5%, Nickel 4.9%, Orange Juice 3.1%, Palladium 10.6%, Platinum 7.5%, Gasoline 4.9%, Sugar 2%, S&P GSCI 2.2%, Urea U.S. Gulf 1.7%, Gasoil 3.4%, Urea Middle East 3.7%, Silver in AUD 9.9%, Silver in USD 9.8%, Gold in AUD 4.2%, Gold in CAD 5.5%, Gold in CHF 5.3%, Gold in EUR 4.8%, Gold in GBP 4.6%, Gold in USD 4.1%, Gold in ZAR 4.1%, Corn 1.9%, Oats 1.9%, Rice 5.3%, Soybean 1.6%, Wheat 2.1%, Shanghai Composite 3.8%, CSI 300 2.8%, AD02 1.7%, AEX 2.1%, KBW Banks 2.1%, BUX 4.9%, CAC 2%, IDX 2.2%, DAX 2.9%, DJ Industrials 2.4%, DJ Transports 3.7%, FCATC 4.2%, IBB 2%, Bovespa 1.8%, S&P SmallCap 600 4.2%, Russell 2000 4.6%, TAEIX 3.2%, Nasdaq Composite 1.9%, KRE Regional Banks 3.4%, KSE 3%, KOSPI 6.4%, FTSE 250 2.8%, S&P Midcap 400 3.3%, Mexico 3%, NBI 1.9%, Nasdaq 100 2.2%, Nikkei 225 3.2%, Copenhagen 4.3%, Stockholm 3.2%, PSE 3.5%, PX 1.8%, SA40 1.7%, SOX 3.7%, IGPA 4.6%, S&P 500 1.6%, STI 1.9%, TA35 4.4%, Nasdaq Transports 4.6%, TSX 2.3%, FTSE 100 1.7%, Vietnam 4.7%, XBI 2.5%, ASX Materials 3.7%, ASX Small Caps 2.1% and Türkiye’s BIST rose 6.1%.
The group of largest decliners from the week included;
Baltic Dry Index (10.3%), Cocoa (9%), LNG in Yen (3.5%), Natural Gas (12.4%), Dutch TTF Gas (2.2%), Sensex (2.6%) and the ASX Financials fell 2.5%.
January 11, 2026
By Rob Zdravevski
There was a time to Sell or Short Heating Oil
January 9, 2026 Leave a comment
Once upon a time (in my Macro Extremes publication for the week ending November 14, 2025),
Heating Oil appeared in the overbought extreme category…..
The chart below shows you the 15% decline since then.
January 9, 2026
rob@karriasset.com.au
Too late to chase Nickel
January 7, 2026 Leave a comment
The circles in the study below are 2 moments when the price of Nickel was out of favour, unloved and trading at one of my ‘extremes’.
Those moments were highlighted in many presentations that I conducted in 2025 with investors, corporations and investment banks.
Any of the attendees would recall me using the line that buying Nickel was akin to “buying straw hats in winter”.
Today, the news outlets are posting headlines telling us that #Nickel has rallied.
There is a little bit to go, but it’s too late for now.
January 7, 2026
rob@karriasset.com.au
How to refill the SPR on the cheap
January 7, 2026 Leave a comment
Between November 2021 and October 2022, the Biden administration announced that 260 million barrels of Oil would be released from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
Then, the mid-term elections were held in November 2022.
Now, there are 50 million barrels of Venezuelan “heavy sour” Oil (not light sweet, although the SPR holds both) bound for the U.S.
Later, they’ll send another 100 million barrels or so.
And sometime before November 2026, in time for the mid-term elections, (whether the oil arrives or not), the headline will read something like, “Trump replenishes the SPR which Biden sold off”.
January 7, 2026
rob@karriasset.com.au
Here was the trade…..
January 6, 2026 Leave a comment
The Caracas General Index rose 16.5% in Monday’s trade…..
but it has risen 55% over the past 5 days.
#frontrunning
#votingmachine
January 6, 2026
rob@karriasset.com.au
Macro Extremes (week ending January 2, 2026)
January 4, 2026 Leave a comment
A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.
The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.
n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.
* denotes multiple week inclusion
Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
Austrian 10 year bond yields
U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 2 year bond yield spread
Overbought (RSI > 70)
Australian 2, 3 and 5 year bond yield
Australian 10 year minus U.S. 10 year bond yield spread *
Danish & Korean 10 year government bond yields *
European 20 and 30 year bond yields
The Japanese bond yield curve
Silver in AUD & USD *
CHF/JPY *
EUR/JPY *
GBP/JPY *
MYR/USD *
All World Developed ex USA index
Austria’s ATX Index
U.S. KBW Bank Index *
Hungary’s BUX Index *
Indonesia’s IDX Composite Index
Egypt’s EGX Index *
Spain’s IBEX *
Taiwan’s TAEIX
Malaysia’s KLSE Index
Pakistan’s KSE Index
South Korea’s KOSPI Index
Nasdaq Biotech Index *
OMX Helsinki Index *
Czechia’s PX Index *
South Africa’s SA40 equity index *
Chile’s IGPA *
Singapore’s Strait Times *
Israel’s TA35 *
Nasdaq Transports *
Canada’s TSX equity index *
FTSE 100
S&P Biotech Index
The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)
Lithium Hydroxide
Nickel
CNH/USD *
ZAR/USD
Poland’s WIG Index
Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
None
Oversold (RSI < 30)
U.S. 10 year minus the Australian 10 year bond yield spread *
U.S. 10 year bond yield divided by Australian 10 year yield spread *
Richards Bay Coal *
Lumber *
Sugar #16 *
Rice *
JPY/AUD *
JPY/CAD
NZD/AUD *
The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)
USD/CNH
USD/ZAR
Notes & Ideas:
Government bond yields generally rose.
U.S. 2 year bond yields have fallen for 4 weeks.
Danish 10 year yields have climbed for 5 weeks.
Brazilian 10 year yields fell and snapped a 4 week rise.
Japanese 2 and 5 year bond yields have risen for 7 weeks straight.
Indonesian 10 year yields have fallen for 5 weeks.
Turkish 10’s have sunken for 7 weeks.
Equities were mixed to mostly higher.
Malaysia’s KLSE fell and broke a 4 week winning streak.
Poland’s WIG has risen for 4 weeks.
The Russell 2000 and South Africa 40 have climbed for 4 weeks.
The All World Developed Index, Austria’s ATX, Spain’s IBEX, Norway’s OBX, Czechia’s PX, South Africa’s SA40, Israel’s TA-35, and the ASX Financials are in 6 week winning streaks.
KBW Bank Index, ASX Financials and DJ Transports fell and broke a 5 week winning streak.
Pakistan’s KSE has climbed for 8 consecutive weeks.
Commodities were also mixed.
Coffee, Cattle, Lithium Hydroxide, Nickel, and Orange Juice were the notable gainers.
Palladium, Platinum, Gold, Corn, oats, Rice and Tin were the notable decliners.
None of the precious metals are overbought, this week.
Orange Juice has advanced for 4 weeks, climbing 44% over that time.
Uranium’s winning streak extends to 6 weeks.
Gasoline has slumped for 4 weeks.
Lithium Hydroxide has moved into overbought territory.
Silver in AUD broke its 7 week winning streak.
Rice has fallen for 7 straight weeks.
Currencies were quieter.
The Aussie was mostly weaker.
AUD/JPY, MYR/USD and GBP/USD fell and broke their 5 week winning streaks.
CAD was lower.
CAD/JPY and GBP/JPY fell and broke a 7 week advance.
EUR/CHF has declined for the past 4 weeks.
THB/USD fell and broke its 6 week climb.
Inversely, the USD has fallen against the South African Rand for 6 weeks.
And the USD/Chinese Yuan is oversold.
The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;
Copper/Gold Ratio 2.5%, Arabica Coffee 2%, Cattle 2.8%, Lithium Hydroxide 15.4%, Aluminium 1.9%, Nickel 6.5%, Orange Juice 4.3%, Robusta Coffee 2.5%, Dutch TTF Gas 3.9%, AEX 2.8%, ATX 2%, IDX 2.5%, FCATC 3.4%, MIB 1.7%, HSCEI 2.9%, Hang Seng 2%, IBEX 1.9%, TAEIX 2.8%, KSE 3.9%, KOSPI 4.4%, OBX 1.8%, OMX-H 2%, SOX 2.2%, TA35 2.6%, VN Index 3.2%, WIG 3.5% and BIST rose 1.8%.
The group of largest decliners from the week included;
Bloomberg Commodity Index (2.6%), Palm Oil (2.4%), Copper (2.5%), Lumber (3.4%), Lithium Carbonate (9.3%), Tin (5.2%), Newcastle Coal (2.8%), Natural Gas (6.7%), Palladium (16.4%), Platinum (14.2%), Sugar (3.8%), Silver in AUD (7.9%), Silver in USD (8.2%), Gold in AUD (4.2%), Gold in CAD (4%), Gold in CHF (4.1%), Gold in EUR (4%), Gold in GBP (4.2%), Gold in USD (4.4%), Gold in ZAR (5.3%), Corn (2.8%), Oats (3.3%), Rice (4.2%), Soybean (2.5%), Wheat (2.4%), IBB (1.8%), S&P SmallCap 600 (1.4%), Nasdaq Composite (1.5%), KRE (1.9%), Mexico (2.3%), NBI (1.8%), S&P 600 (1.4%) and XBI fell 2.8%.
January 4, 2026
By Rob Zdravevski
Silver – Short, not Long
December 31, 2025 Leave a comment
As I write, the price of Silver is trading at US$71.33.
My work suggests that it trades down to ~US$47, at which point I’ll assess if US$38-US$40 is on the cards.
I have similar directional views for Gold.
December 31, 2025
rob@karriasset.com.au
Perspective about Silver
December 29, 2025 Leave a comment
Over the 3 years, the share price of Ralph Lauren has outperformed the price of Silver.
Over the past 6 months, the share price of U.S. healthcare company, Grail Inc. have considerably outperformed the price of Silver.
And the price of Platinum has mimicked that of Silver.
For those busy reporting the news…….could Ralph Lauren stock be a store of value?
Macro Extremes (week ending December 26, 2025)
December 28, 2025 Leave a comment
A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.
The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.
n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.
* denotes multiple week inclusion
Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
Belgian and Indian 10 year bond yields
U.S. 5 year bond yield minus U.S. 5 year inflation breakeven spread *
Australian Coking Coal *
Copper
Lithium Hydroxide
Nickel
AUD/USD
CHF/USD
ZAR/USD *
Malaysia’s KLSE Index *
Vietnam’s VN Index
Overbought (RSI > 70)
Australian 2 year bond yield
Korean 10 year government bond yields
Japanese 30 year bond yields
Australian 10 year minus U.S. 10 year bond yield spread
Tin *
Aluminium (LME price) *
Gold in AUD, CAD, CHF, EUR, GBP, USD & ZAR *
AUD/JPY *
CAD/JPY *
CHF/JPY *
CNH/USD *
EUR/JPY *
GBP/JPY *
Austria’s ATX equity index *
U.S. KBW Bank Index *
Hungary’s BUX Index *
Egypt’s EGX Index *
IBB biotech ETF *
Spain’s IBEX *
Brazil’s Bovespa
Nasdaq Biotech Index *
OMX Helsinki Index *
Czechia’s PX Index *
South Africa’s SA40 equity index *
Chile’s IGPA *
Singapore’s Strait Times
Israel’s TA35 *
Nasdaq Transports *
Canada’s TSX equity index *
The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)
Danish 10 year government bond yield *
Japanese 2, 5 & 10 year government bond yields *
Palladium
Platinum
Silver in AUD & USD
AUD/IDR
CNH/USD *
MYR/USD *
THB/USD
Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
AUD/THB *
BRL/USD *
USD/MXN
USD/SEK
Oversold (RSI < 30)
U.S. 10 year minus the Australian 10 year bond yield spread *
U.S. 10 year bond yield divided by Australian 10 year yield spread
Richards Bay Coal *
Lumber *
Sugar #16 *
Rice *
JPY/AUD
NZD/AUD
The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)
USD/CNH
Notes & Ideas:
Government bond yields generally eased except for Japan’s.
The Australian and Euro yield curve fell and broke 4 weeks of advance.
Brazilian and Danish 10 year yields have climbed for 4 weeks.
Japanese 2 and 5 year bond yields have risen for 6 weeks straight.
Indonesian 10 year yields have fallen for 4 weeks.
Turkish 10’s have sunken for 6 weeks.
The U.S. 10Y minus U.S. 2Y spread eased and is no longer overbought.
While the U.S. 5 year breakeven inflation rate is nearly oversold.
We have also seen some reversals.
The U.S. 10 year minus Australian 10 year bond yield spread rose and broke a 8 weeks losing streak.
Chilean 2 year bond yields rose to break 4 weeks of decline.
And U.S 3 month bill yields rose to snap a 5 week losing streak.
Equities traded higher.
Malaysia’s KLSE was climbed higher for 4 weeks.
The All World Developed Index, Austria’s ATX, KBW Bank Index, Dow Jones Transports, Spain’s IBEX, Norway’s OBX, Czechia’s PX, South Africa’s SA40, Israel’s TA-35, and the ASX Financials are in 5 week winning streaks.
Italy’s MIB fell for the first time in 4 weeks.
U.S. Regional Bank Index fell and snapped a 5 week winning streak.
Pakistan’s KSE has climbed for 7 consecutive weeks.
Commodities were firmer.
Palm Oil, Lithium, Natural Gas, Nickel, Silver, Platinum, Palladium, Coffee and Gold were the notable gainers.
Shipping Rates was the sole notable decliner.
Platinum has soared 42% in the past 3 weeks.
Orange Juice has climbed 40% in the past 3 weeks.
While the Baltic Dry Index has given up 35% over the same time.
Lithium Hydroxide has moved into overbought territory.
Cattle fell and broke a 4 week winning streak.
Silver as priced in AUD is in a 7 week winning streak.
The USD version has climbed for 5 weeks.
Newcastle Coal and Gasoil rose and broke 5 weeks of decline.
Heating Oil mean reverted.
JKM LNG rose and broke 4 weeks of loss.
Arabica coffee looks like changing direction of trend.
Lithium Carbonate is nearing overbought territory.
Uranium has climbed for 5 weeks.
Rice has fallen for 6 straight weeks.
And Wheat is in a 7 week slump.
Currencies were active.
The Aussie rose.
AUD/JPY, MYR/USD and GBP/USD have risen for 5 consecutive weeks.
The Loonie was mixed to firmer.
CAD/JPY an the GBP/JPY have climbed for 7 weeks.
The Euro was mostly weaker.
THB/USD has climbed for 6 weeks.
Inversely, the USD has fallen against the South African Rand for 5 weeks.
And the USD/Chinese Yuan is oversold.
The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;
Aluminium 2.4%, Bloomberg Commodity Index 3.4%, Cocoa 1.9%, Palm Oil 4.7%, Copper 6%, Arabica Coffee 2.8%, JKM LNG in Yen 2.4%, Lithium Carbonate 3.9%, Lithium Hydroxide 3.5%, Newcastle Coal 2.2%, Natural Gas 9.6%, Nickel 6.8%, Orange Juice 2.9%, Palladium 13.2%, Platinum 22.4%, Robusta Coffee 6.2%, Sugar 2.4%, Gasoil 2%, S&P GSCI 1.5%, CRB Index 1.*%, Silver in AUD 16.3%, Gold in AUD 2.9%, Gold in CAD 3.5%, Gold in CHF 3.7%, Gold in EUR 3.9%, Gold in GBP 3.5%, Gold in USD 4.5%, Gold in ZAR 3.8%, Corn 1.4%, Oats 3.4% Wheat 1.8%, Shanghai Composite 1.9%, CSI 300 2%, All World Developed 1.5%, KBW Bank Index 1.8%, China A50 1.6%, FCATC 2%, Bovespa 1.5%, TAIEX 3.1%, KOSPI 2.7%, Mexico 2.6%, Nikkei 225 2.5%, PSE 2.5%, SOX 2%, IGPA 1.7%, S&P 500 1.4%, STI 1.5%, XFJ 1.4%, XJO 1.6%, XMJ 3.4% and ASX Small Caps fell 2.2%.
The group of largest decliners from the week included;
Baltic Dry Index (7.2%), Israel’s TA35 (1.6%).
December 28, 2025
By Rob Zdravevski
rob zdravevski's blog 