Macro Extremes (week ending September 26, 2025)

September 28, 2025 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities. 

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Australian 3 year government bond yields

Chinese, Czech, South Korean and Swedish 10 year government bond yields 

Italian 2 and 10 year government bond yields

Uranium

Gold in ZAR

AUD/IDR *

AUD/CAD *

COP/USD

USD/IDR

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Lean Hogs

CHF/JPY

EUR/JPY

Shanghai Composite Index *  

CSI 300 *

IDX Composite

China’s FCATC *

Spain’s IBEX

Taiwan’s TAIEX *

Nasdaq Composite *

Pakistan’s KSE Index * 

South Korea’s KOSPI * 

Nikkei 225

Japan’s Nikkei 225

Czechia’s PX Index *

South Africa’s SA40 *

Chile’s IGPA and IPSA indices * 

Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) *

Canada’s TSX *  

Vietnam’s VN Index * 

And the ASX Small Cap Index * 

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Silver in AUD & USD *

Gold in AUD, CAD, CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Mexico’s IPC Index

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

None

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

U.S. 3 month bill yield *

Richards Bay Coal *

Rice

JPY/EUR

NZD/AUD

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

Philippines PSE equity index 

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields were quiet.

U.S. corporate bond yields (and the high yield effective yield) are a whisker from oversold levels and at are at their most oversold since December 2020.

Czech 10 year yields and the U.S. 5 year minus U.S. 3 month yield have risen for 4 weeks.

Swiss 10 year bond yields have fallen for 5 weeks.

And Swedish, Italian and Korean 10 year yields are in oversold territory.

Equities were mostly lower, again.

The S&P 500 eased slightly, which was enough to leave overbought land.

We see a return of Spain’s IBEX and Japan’s Nikkei 225 to the overbought list.

HSCEI Index and Brazil’s BOVESPA equity index are no longer at overbought extremes.

The TAIEX and Nikkei 225 have risen for 5 weeks.

The ASX Industrials have fallen for 5 weeks, while the Dow Jones Transports rose and broke its 4 week losing streak.

AEX, KSE, N225, PX and SOX are in 4 week winning streaks.

The TAIEX has risen for 5 weeks.

The DJ Transports rose and broke 4 weeks of loses.

The Russell 2000 fell and broke a 7 week streak of advance.

Canada’s TSX technically broke its 7 week winning streak by falling a mere 0.02%.

While the ASX Small Caps stretches its winning streak to 8 weeks.

Commodities were busy and mostly firmer.

Oils, Precious Metals, Lumber, Copper, Coffee and Sugar were amongst the notable gainers. 

Cocoa, Steel, Urea, Oats and Rice dominated the losers category. 

Uranium joins Gold in overbought territory.

Lumber rose and isn’t oversold.

The Copper/Gold ratio is nearing oversold levels.

Gasoil has climbed for 4 consecutive weeks.

Lean Hogs, Silver in AUD & USD along with Gold in AUD, CAD, CHF, and ZAR are all in a 6 week rising streak.

Platinum has risen for 8 weeks.

Cocoa has declined for 6 weeks.

Richards Bay Coal and U.S. Gulf urea prices are in 9 week losing streaks.

Currencies were active, again.

There have been some changes in this weeks currency entrants and some streaks are developing and extending.

The Aussie was weaker, again.

The Euro and CHF were firmer.

Swissie/Yen has risen for 6 weeks, but CHF/USD fell and broke its 6 week winning streak.

The Loonie eased.

Yen was weaker and we are seeing JPY/EUR fall for 4 weeks and Yen/USD down for 5 weeks.

The USD has fallen for 4 weeks against the South African Rand,

And the Kiwi has slumped for 8 weeks against the Aussie.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Bloomberg Commodity Index 2.1%, Brent Crude 5.2%, Baltic Dry Index 2.5%, WTI Crude 5.3%, Lean Hogs 3.6%, Copper 3.1%, Heating Oil 5.4%, Arabica Coffee 3.2%, Lumber 4.6%, Palladium 12.1%, Platinum 11.2%, Gasoline 4%, Robusta Coffee 1.6%, Sugar 2.7%, S&P GSCI 2.8%, CRB Index 2%, Gasoil 5.7%, Uranium 5.9%, Silver in AUD 7.7%, Silver in USD 6.9%, Gols in AUD 2.8%, Gold in CAD 3.2%, Gold in CHF 2.4%, Gold in EUR 2.4%, Gold in GBP 2.6%, Gold in USD 2%, Gold in ZAR 2%, Mexico 1.8%, XBI Biotechs 2.5%, ASX Materials 5.9%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

Cocoa (4.6%), U.S Midwest Hot Coiled Steel (3%), LNG in Yen (2.1%), Urea Middle East (1.8%), Oats (3.8%), Rice (2.2%), HSCEI (1.8%), Hang Seng (1.6%), KRE (1.8%), KOSPI (1.7%), NIFTY (2.7%), Copenhagen (2.2%), PSE (3.8%), SENSEX (2.7%), SMI (1.5%) and Nasdaq Transports fell 1.5%.

September 28, 2025 

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au 

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , ,

Many assets have outperformed Gold

September 27, 2025 Leave a comment

The Gold zealots are out again….

Over any time period for the past 5 years, many stocks have performed better than the price of Gold.

I’ve attached just one example comparing the stock price of Oracle vs USD Gold.

September 27, 2025

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment

Macro Extremes (week ending September 20, 2025)

September 21, 2025 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities. 

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Chinese 10 year government bond yields *

IEF & TLT *

AUD/IDR *

AUD/CAD *

AUD/SGD *

AUD/USD *

CNH/USD

MYR/USD

THB/USD

HSCEI Index

IPC Mexico equity index *

And Brazil’s BOVESPA equity index * 

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Urea (Middle East) prices * 

Silver in AUD & USD *

CHF/JPY

Shanghai Composite Index *  

CSI 300 *

China A50 *

Taiwan’s TAIEX *

Nasdaq Composite *

Pakistan’s KSE Index * 

South Korea’s KOSPI * 

Nasdaq 100

Japan’s Nikkei 225

Czechia’s PX Index *

South Africa’s SA40 *

Chile’s IGPA and IPSA indices * 

Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX)

S&P 500 Index

Canada’s TSX *  

Vietnam’s VN Index * 

And the ASX Small Cap Index * 

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Gold in AUD, CHF, GBP and USD

China’s FCATC *

Hang Seng Index

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

U.S, & New Zealand 10 year government bond yield *

Australian 10 year bond yield minus its 5 year bond yield *

TBT *

U.S. 20 and 30 year bond yields

U.S. 10 year bond yield minus 10 year breakeven inflation rate

USD/SEK *

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

Lumber *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

U.S. 3 month bill yield *

Richards Bay Coal *

NZD/AUD

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields rose, except for those in Australia, Italy, Finland, South Korea and New Zealand

It was a boring week in bonds.

U.S. corporate bond yields (and the high yield effective yield) are a whisker from oversold levels and at are at their most oversold since December 2020.

Canadian 10 year yields mean reverted.

Swiss 10 year bond yields have fallen for 4 weeks.

And Swedish 10 year yields are approaching oversold territory.

Equities were mostly firmer, but subdued.

New entrants to the overbought extreme list includes the Nasdaq 100, the SOX, S&P 500, the Hang Seng and the HSCEI.

Israel’s TA25 and Singapore’s Strait Times are no longer at overbought extremes.

The latter fell and broke its 4 week winning streak.

The TAIEX and Nikkei 225 have risen for 4 weeks.

The Dow Jones Transports and ASX Industrials have fallen for 4 weeks.

The Philippines PSE rose and broke its 5 week slump.

While the Russell 2000, TSX and ASX Small Caps have put together a 7 week winning streak.

And the S&P 500 has risen for 10 of the past 13 weeks.

Commodities were generally quiet.

Coal, Precious Metals, Uranium and Shipping Rates were amongst the notable gainers. 

Coffee, Cocoa, Lumber, Tin, Palladium and Soybeans dominated the losers category. 

Coal prices rallied and saw the Newcastle Coking contract depart oversold territory.

The Copper/Gold ratio is nearing oversold levels.

Lean Hogs, Silver in AUD & USD along with Gold in AUD, CAD, CHF, and ZAR are all in a 5 week rising streak.

Platinum has risen for 7 weeks.

Cocoa has declined for 5 weeks.

Richards Bay Coal, Lumber and U.S. Gulf urea prices are in 8 week losing streaks and all appear in this weeks extreme list.

Currencies were active, again.

The Aussie, the British Pound and the USD were weaker.

While the Loonie and Euro were firmer.

The AUD weakness compared to Loonie strength poses a contradiction.

JPY/USD has fallen for 4 weeks.

The Kiwi has slumped for 8 weeks against the Aussie.

The Swissie has risen against the Yen for 5 weeks.

The CHF/USD has climbed for 6 weeks.

USD/SEK rose and broke 6 weeks of decline.

And the USD/BRL completed a medium term men reversion.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Australian Coking Coal 2%, Baltic Dry Index 3.7%, Cattle 1.6%, Newcastle Coal 6.8%, Uranium 2.3%, Silver in AUD 3%, Silver in USD 2.1%, Gold in AUD 2%, Gold in GBP 1.8%, AEX 2.3%, KBW Banks 2.1%, IDX 2.5%, FCATC 3.8%, Bovespa 2.5%, Russell 2000 2%, Nasdaq Composite 2.2%, KSE 2.3%, Nasdaq 100 2.2%, PSE 2.5%, SOX 3.8%, BIST 8.9% and the XBI rose 1.6%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

Cocoa (2.7%), Arabica Coffee (8%), Lumber (3.2%), Tin (3%), Aluminium (1.8%), Natural Gas (1.8%), Palladium (6.5%), Robusta Coffee (10.1%), Sugar (1.8%), Soybeans (2%), TA35 (2%) and ASX Materials fell 1.5%.

September 21, 2025 

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au 

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Equity bull is OK

September 17, 2025 Leave a comment

Here is a weekly price chart of the AUD/JPY……the broader equity rally is in intact.

September 16, 2025

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment

Oversold Rice prices

September 16, 2025 Leave a comment

It was 2018 when the price of Rice (as traded on CBOT) saw such empirical oversold extremes.

Think cheaper inputs for baby food, cereals, rice flour and sake….

September 15, 2025

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment

Macro Extremes (week ending September 12, 2025)

September 14, 2025 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities. 

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Chinese & Dutch 10 year government bond yields *

IEF & TLT *

Australian 10 year minus U.S. 10 year bond yield spread *

Gold in AUD, CHF, EUR, GBP and ZAR

AUD/IDR *

AUD/CAD *

AUD/SGD

AUD/USD

And Brazil’s BOVESPA equity index * 

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Urea (Middle East) prices * 

Silver in USD *

Shanghai Composite Index *  

CSI 300 *

China A50

China’s FCATC

Taiwan’s TAIEX

Nasdaq Composite

Pakistan’s KSE Index * 

South Korea’s KOSPI * 

Japan’s Nikkei 225

Czechia’s PX Index *

South Africa’s SA40 *

Chile’s IGPA and IPSA indices * 

Singapore’s Strait Times 

Israel’s TA 35 Index *

Canada’s TSX *  

Vietnam’s VN Index * 

And the ASX Small Cap Index * 

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Gold in USD and CAD *

AUD/INR

IPC Mexico equity index *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

New Zealand 10 year government bond yield  

Australian 10 year bond yield minus its 5 year bond yield

TBT

U.S. 3, 5, 7, 10, 20 and 30 year bond yields

U.S. 10 year bond yield minus 10 year breakeven inflation rate

Newcastle Coal

AUD/THB

CAD/AUD

USD/SEK

And Philippines’ PSI equity index 

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

Rice

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

U.S. 3 month bill yield *

Richards Bay Coal

Lumber *

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields rose, except for U.S. and UK 30’s, which rose.

Last week’s overbought sovereign 10’s are no longer.

U.S. corporate bond yields (and the high yield effective yield) are a whisker from oversold levels and at are at their most oversold since December 2020.

The U.S. 5 year breakeven rate bounced out of oversold territory.

Canadian 10 year yields have fallen for 4 weeks.

U.S. 7 year bond yields mean converged.

U.S. 2 and 30 year yields rose and broke for their 4 weeks falling streak.

And the U.S  10 year minus inflation rate spread is at its most oversold level since March 2022.

Equities were firmer, again.

The overbought list grew this week with notable new entrants including the Nasdaq Composite and the Nikkei 225.

Chinese indices are crowding the overbought list too.

Amidst all the concerns surrounding tariffs, Mexico has registered an overbought quinella.

The Dow Jones Transports have fallen for 3 weeks while the Philippines PSE has slumped for 5 weeks.

The Strait Times is in a 4 week wining streak.

Bovespa fell and broke a 5 week winning streak.

The Russell 2000, TSX and ASX Small Caps have put together a 6 week winning streak.

And the S&P 500 has risen for 9 of the past 12 weeks.

Commodities were generally stronger.

Crude Oil, Aluminium, Coffee, Orange Juice, Shipping Rates and Corn were amongst the notable gainers. 

Coal, Rice, Natural Gas, Cattle and Lithium Carbonate dominated the losers category. 

Sugar rose from being oversold with Rice taking its place.

The Copper/Gold ratio is nearing oversold levels.

Corn, Lean Hogs, Silver in AUD & USD along with Gold in AUD, CAD, CHF, and EUR are all in a 4 week rising streak.

Platinum has risen for 6 weeks.

Cocoa has declined for 4 weeks.

Richards Bay Coal, Lumber and U.S. Gulf urea prices are in 6 week losing streaks.

Currencies were active, again.

The Aussie rose notably.

While the Yen, Loonie and the Euro fell.

The Swissie has risen against the Yen for 4 weeks.

The CHF/USD has climbed for 5 weeks.

USD/SEK has declined for 6 weeks.

And the NZD/AUD is a 7 week losing streak.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Aluminium 3.6%, Brent Crude 2.3%, Baltic Dry Index 7.4%, WTI Crude 1.3%, Copper 2.2%, Arabica 6.2%, Orange Juice 6.2%, Palladium 10.8%, Platinum 1.8%, Robusta Coffee 6.8%, Sugar 1.5%, Tin 1.9%, Dutch TTF Gas 2.2%, Gasoil 1.8%, Silver in USD 2.9%, Gold in CAD 1.7%, Gold in USD 1.6%, Corn 2.9%, Soybeans 1.9%, Shanghai Composite 1.5%, KBW Banks 2%, CAC 2%, China A50 2.1%, FCATC 6.4%, MIB 2.3%, HSCEI 3.4%, Hang Seng 3.8%, IBEX 3.1%, TAEIX 4%, Nasdaq Composite 2%, KLSE 1.4%, KOSPI 5.9%, Mexico 2.2%, Nasdaq 100 1.9%, Nikkei 225 4.1%, Nifty 1.5%, Oslo 1.8%, Helsinki 1.5%, South Africa 3.1%, Sensex 1.5%, SET 2.3%, SOX 4.2%, TA35 1.5% and the S&P 500 rose 1.6%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

Richards Bay Coal (2.4%), Rotterdam Coal (2.4%), EHR (2%), Cattle (2.5%), Lithium Carbonate (2.2%), Newcastle Coal (7.5%), Natural Gas (3.5%), Rice (3.3%), BUX (1.9%), IBB (1.5%), NBI (1.6%), SMI (1.4%), IGPA (2.1%), IPSA (2.4%), BIST (3.3%) and the ASX Industrials index fell 1.3%.

September 13, 2025 

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au 

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Gold’s overbought extreme

September 12, 2025 Leave a comment

Amidst the hootin’ and a hollerin’ about the Gold price…..

here is the Gold price in Canadian Dollars…..

and when it trades at its upper 3 standard deviation point, it goes sideways to lower for a period of time afterwards.

September 11, 2025

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with ,

Lithium supply disruption was a headfake

September 9, 2025 Leave a comment

Reprising my view from a month ago, warning about the resumption of lower stock prices in listed Lithium companies…..

Back then lithium stocks were advancing on the news that CATL was seeing supply disruptions.

I’ll tell you this for nothing……Lithium stocks

Today, there is news that Chinese battery giant Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) is expected to soon resume production at its lithium mine in Yichun.

September 9, 2025

Filed under Finance & Investment

Macro Extremes (week ending September 5th, 2025)

September 7, 2025 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities. 

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Chinese, French, British, Greek Norwegian & Swedish 10 year government bond yields *

30 year British bond yield 

IEF & IEI

Australian 10 year minus U.S. 10 year bond yield spread

Italian 2 and 10 year bond yields

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 2 year bond yield spread

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 5 year bond yield spread *

Gold in AUD, GBP and ZAR

AUD/IDR

AUD/CAD

BOVESPA 

IPC Mexico equity index 

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Cattle * 

Urea (Middle East) prices * 

Silver in AUD & USD

Gold in CHF & EUR

Shanghai Composite Index *  

Pakistan’s KSE Index * 

South Korea’s KOSPI * 

Czechia’s PX Index

South Africa’s SA40 * 

Israel’s TA 35 Index

Canada’s TSX *  

Vietnam’s VN Index * 

And the ASX Small Cap Index * 

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 5 year bond yield spread

Gold in US and CAD

CSI 300 *

Chile’s IGPA and IPSA indices * 

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Belgian 10 year government bond yield  

U.S. 2, 3, 5, 7 and 10 year bond yields

U.S. 5 year bond yield minus 5 year breakeven inflation rate

U.S. 10 year bond yield minus Australian 10 year bond yield

U.S. 10 year bond yield minus 10 year breakeven inflation rate

U.S. 10 year bond yield divided by Australian 10 year bond yield 

Australian Coking Coal

Philippines PSI equity index 

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

Sugar

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

U.S. 3 month bill yield *

Lumber *

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields fell.

Some overbought entrants this week appeared as so due to intra week highs.

U.S. corporate bond yields are nearing oversold levels.

U.S. 7 year bond yields are close to some mean reversion.

Indonesian 10 year yields rose and broke a 4 week falling streak.

U.S. 2 and 3 year yields have fallen for 4 weeks.

U.S. 3 month bill are oversold and in a 6 week losing streak. 

Indian 10 year yields fell and halted their 8 week climb, 

And June 2019 was the last time the U.S. 5 year real interest rate simultaneously mean reverted and registered an oversold extreme.

Equities rose mixed with a slight bias towards weakness. 

This has resulted in half of last week’s overbought entrants no longer being so, this week. 

A couple Chinese indices left overbought extreme territory.

Shanghai, CSI 300, KBW Banks index, ASX 200 and FCATC fell and ended their 4 week winning streak.

The following indices are in 5 week winning streaks; Bovespa, Russell 2000, TSX and the ASX Small Caps.

While the HSCEI and Hang Seng rose.

Commodities were mixed, again.

Gases, Precious Metals and  Rubber were amongst the notable gainers. 

Crude Oil, Coffee, Coal, Lithium, Orange Juice, Sugar, Oats and Wheat dominated the losers category. 

The Copper/Gold ratio is nearing oversold levels.

Richards Bay Coal, Lumber and U.S. Gulf urea prices are in 5 week losing streaks.

Arabica Coffee, Tin and Uranium broke their 4 week winning.

Platinum has risen for 5 weeks.

Middle East Urea prices have risen for 10 weeks.

Cattle broke its 10 straight weeks of gains.

Currencies were active.

The Aussie, Euro and Swissie rose.

The CHF/USD has risen for 4 weeks.

The Loonie fell.

The British Pound and Yen were slightly softer, again.

The U.S. Dollar was slightly weaker.

USD/SEK has declined for 5 weeks.

And the NZD/AUD is a 6 week losing streak.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Palm Oil 1.6%, LNG in Yen 3.9%, Natural Gas 1.7%, Silver in AUD 3%, Silver in USD 3.3%, Gold in AUD 3.8%, Gold in USD 4%, Rubber 2.9%, Gold in CHF 3.7%, Gold in EUR 3.7%, Gold in GBP 4%, Gold in CAD 4.7%, Gold in ZAR 3.7%, IBB 3.6%, KSE 3.8%, Mexico 3%, NBI 3.6%, SET 2.3%, SMI 1.5%, SOX 1.6%, IGPA 3.3%, IPSA 3.5%, XBI 6.3% and Canada’s TSX rose 1.7%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

Richards Bay Coal (1.8%), Brent Crude (2.9%), BDI (2.3%), Cocoa (3.1%), WTI Crude (3.3%), Arabica Coffee (3.2%), Lumber (1.5%), Lithium Carbonate (4.6%), Newcastle Coal (1.4%), Nickel (1.4%), Orange Juice (5.2%), Robusta Coffee (10.5%), Sugar (5%), Tin (2.3%), CRB Index (1.5%), Urea U.S. Gulf (1.9%), Oats (3.7%), Rice (2.3%), Soybean (2.6%), Wheat (2.8%), KBW Bank Index (1.6%), DAX (1.3%), Egypt (2.7%), FCATC (2.7%), BIST (5%) and Italy’s MIB fell 1.4%.

September 7, 2025 

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au 

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending August 29, 2025)

August 31, 2025 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities. 

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Austrian, Chinese, French, British and Indian 10 year government bond yields *

IEF

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 2 year bond yield spread

AUD/INR

RMB/USD

KLSE

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Cattle * 

Urea (Middle East) prices * 

Shanghai Composite Index * 

Egypt’s EGX 30 equity index * 

Pakistan’s KSE Index * 

South Korea’s KOSPI * 

South Africa’s SA40 * 

Chile’s IGPA and IPSA indices 

Canada’s TSX *  

Vietnam’s VN Index * 

The ASX 200 * 

ASX Industrials * 

And the ASX Small Cap Index * 

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 5 year bond yield spread

U.S. 30 year minus U.S. 10 year bond yield spread

CSI 300 *

China’s A50 equity index *

FCATC Index * 

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Belgian and New Zealand 10 year government bond yield  

NZD/AUD 

NZD/USD *

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

Indonesian 10 year government bond yield  

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

U.S. 3 month bill yield *

Lumber *

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields mostly eased…..

with the exception of Sweden, Russia and Portugal.

Indonesian 10 year yields are in a 4 week falling streak.

U.S. 3 month bill are oversold and in a 5 week losing streak. 

And Indian 10’s have climbed for 8 weeks. 

Equities rose mixed with a slight bias towards weakness. 

This has resulted in half of last week’s overbought entrants no longer being so, this week. 

Chinese indices persist with their overbought extreme quinella’s.

The following indices are in 4 week winning streaks; CSI 300, KBW Banks, China A50, FCATC, Bovespa, Russell 2000, KRE Regional Banks, IGPA, IPSA, TSX, Vietnam, ASX 200 and ASX Small Caps.

The ASX Financials fee and broke their 4 week rising streak. 

The Aussie Industrials broke their 5 weeks of consecutive advance.

Karachi fell and saw its 9 week winning streak end.

And the HSCEI and Hang Seng performed bearish outside reversals.

Commodities were mixed.

Hogs, Precious Metals, Coffee, Corn, Rice and Tin were amongst the notable gainers. 

Palm Oil, LNG Gas, Palladium, Steel and Lumber dominated the losers category. 

Rice rose and left the oversold region.

Richards Bay Coal, Lumber and U.S. Gulf urea prices are in 4 week losing streaks.

Arabica Coffee, Platinum, Tin and Uranium have risen for 4 weeks straight.

Robusta Coffee has climbed for 5 weeks.

Middle East Urea prices have risen for 9 weeks.

Cattle has closed higher for 10 straight weeks.  

Henry Hub Natural Gas rose 8% and snapped a 5 week losing streak.  

And Oats rose to break a 7 week losing streak. 

Currencies were subdued.

The Aussie and Loonie were stronger. 

The British Pound and Yen were slightly softer.

This saw the AUD/GBP rise and end its 4 week losing streak.

Euro was weaker.

USD/SEK has declined for 4 weeks.

And the NZD/AUD is a 5 week losing streak.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Baltic Dry Index 4.2%, North European Hot Rolled Coiled Steel 1.9%, Lean Hogs 4.2%, Arabica Coffee 2.1%, Lithium Carbonate 1.6%, Tin 3.8%, Natural Gas 8.2%, Nickel 2.1%, Robusta Coffee 3.6%, uranium 3.2%, Silver in AUD 1.4%, Silver in USD 2.1%, Gold in AUD 1.5%, Gold in CAD 1.6%, Gold in CHF 2.2%, Gold in EUR 2.6%, Gold in GBP 2.4%, Gold in USD 2.2%, Gold in ZAR 3.5%, Corn 2.1%, Oats 2.2%, Rice 2.9%, Wheat 1.3%, CSI 300 2.7%, KBW Banks 1.9%, FCATC 3%, BOVESPA 2.5%, TAEIX 2%, TA35 2.5%, Vietnam 2.2%, ASX Materials 2.6% and ASX Small Caps rose 3.1%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

Palm Oil (3.3%), Heating Oil (1.5%), HRC (4.1%), JKM LNG (2.9%), Lumber (9%), LNG in Yen (5.6%), Palladium (2.5%), Gasoline (1.3%), Dutch TTF Gas (6.4%), AEX (1.8%), ATX (3.6%), BUX (2.8%), CAC (3.3%), DAX (1.9%), MIB (2.6%), HSCEI (1.5%), IBEX (3%), IDX (2.8%), FTSE 250 (2.1%), NIFTY (1.8%), Copenhagen (2.8%), Helsinki (1.8%), Stockholm (2.4%), PSE (2%), PX (1.4%), SENSEX (1.8%), SET (1.3%), SOX (1.5%), Nasdaq Transport (2.3%), WIG (2.7%) and the FTSE 100 fell 1.4%.

August 31, 2025 

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au 

Filed under Finance & Investment

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